Wal-Mart (WMT) reports tomorrow and other than the results, there are a host of other questions begging for answers.
First the numbers:
Estimates are for a profit of $1.02 on revenue of $106.91B. On February 7, Wal-Mart reported disappointing January same store sales and forecast its February same store sales to be flat to up 2% (virtually the same # they have forecast every month the past year). It also gave Q4 guidance, forecasting EPS between 99c and $1.03. For fiscal 2009 ending January estimates are $3.43 EPS on $405.81 billion in revenues.
What we want to know:
1- How many share did the company repurchase? After buying $2.7 billion last quarter, anything less than $2.5 billion in this one would be disappointing.
2- International: We just got news about Mexico’s expansion, anything else?
3- Marketside: We have a logo, what is the plan?
4- Jones Apparel: l.e.i brand clothing. Details?
5- The dividend: Was raised for Q1 last year from 17 to 22 cents a share. Can we go to 27 this year?
Chances are we will not get many details before the annual meeting this summer. One can hope though. I would expect Wal-Mart to hit the high end of expectations or just surpass them. Monthly sales figures from the chains suggest people are forgoing a trip to Target (TGT) and Kohl’s (KSS) in favor of Wal-Mart.
The new “Save More, Live Better” campaign is a winner and they beat every retailer to the punch when it came to the Christmas season and getting people ready to spend their upcoming “rebates” from the gov’t. Both of these serve to put Wal-Mart at the “top of mind” of consumers when it comes to shopping.
When it comes to full year 2009 forecast, I would expect Wal-Mart to give a very broad earnings range if they provide it at all given the current uncertainty in macro conditions.
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Wal-Mart, none
