@ VIC Jeffery Schwartz- Metropolitan Capital Advisors

“Taking What The Defense Gives You” was the title of his talk.

Jeffrey E. Schwarz is the Co-Chief Executive Officer of Metropolitan Capital Advisors, Inc., which he co-founded in 1992. He is the Chairman of the Board of Bogen Communications International, Inc. and a member of the Board of Cyberonics Inc. Mr. Schwarz is a Summa Cum Laude graduate of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, where he received both his BS in Economics and his MBA.

* Schwartz compared investing to a two-minute drill in the NFL. When your team is behind, rather than trying to score a touchdown on one play with a deep pass against a defense specifically designed to stop that, he says many successful game winning drives are accomplished by taking the shorter passes the defense is essentially giving up.
* Rather than buying the “flavor of the month” he says the place to make money is in the “unloved and unwanted sectors”.
* Said to avoid renewables (solar, wind etc.) as the sector will experience a “washout”.
* The market is insistent on being rewarded instantly “like a small child”
* After the 1987 crash, has not used leverage.
* By using leverage you have to be right twice, both on the idea and time.
* The market always extrapolates current conditions into the future (used $140 oil as an example.
* Likes offshore drillers as they have contractual cash flows locked in (Transocean (RIG), SeaDrill (SDRL)).
* Have invested in rigs that have a 25 year life span
* Stocks have followed commodity price down even though contracts in place are bot effected by it.

Idea #1
* Golar LNG (GLNG)
* Currently buying at today’s prices.
* Has rigs that can transport and then re-gassify LNG.
* Are the first in the world to produce these rigs.
* Has contracts to supply these rigs around the world and are paid $100,000 a day for each rig.
* Predicts over $10 a share in FCF in four years and the stock currently trades around $9.

Idea #2
* Domtar (UFS)
* Manufacturer and marketer of uncoated freesheet paper and also manufactures papergrade, fluff and specialty pulp (I don’t know what that is either).
* Using free cash flow to pay down debt.
* “The world will always need paper”
* Competition is shrinking
* Successful at implementing price increases.
* Selling non-core businesses.
* Trading at 4 times FCF in a business he feels is relatively recession .

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None
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