Why Obama Will Lose

Some thoughts before we vote tomorrow….I can’t wait until this thing is over..

A Note. These are observations. I am not saying that people who may or may not think this way are “right or wrong”, I am saying that this is a thought process based on my observations. You can vote for a candidate for whatever reason you want. I don’t care. It is your vote, cast it as you so choose. The media will attempt to explain it all to us and I am simply placing my two cents in the ring since I have not heard it said yet..Take them for what you will..

1- Race:
An Obama loss will have nothing to do with his race. If it really did, he would not even be sitting where he is right now. A racist society, or one with a “race issue” would not have allowed an Obama candidacy to even develop much less get to its present state. He does not need to win to prove the US is “not racist”. His existence as a serious candidate is proof of that. Now, the argument can be made that certain folks will not vote for him because of race. That is true. It is also true that millions are voting for him simply because of it. The existence of racists in a society does not make the society itself racist. The implication that it does means that any society or class of people is defined by its lowest element. Since we reject that in classes of people, we cannot extrapolate that to a society as it is the sum of those very people. It is the action of the society as a whole that defines it. The fact that society is on the precipice of possibly electing a leader from a minority class of it mandates that a large portion of the majority must vote for that candidate. That eliminates the argument the society is inherently racist. Were is so, the minority candidate would not stand even a remote chance.

If we have to have the race commentary (we do since it will be all that it is talked about after), let’s break it down to simple math. We know well in excess of 90% of African American’s (is that still the proper vernacular?) are voting for Obama based on votes cast in the primaries. This crushes the percentage of any other election for any candidate the group has voted for. The only conclusion is that they are voting for him simply due to his race. Isn’t that the very thing Martin Luther King tried to avoid? Wasn’t the quote “I hope one day men are judged by the content of their character, not the color of their skin”? Is voting “for” anyone because of the color of their skin any less racist that voting “against” one due to it? Or is not mentioning it simply the acceptable rationalization?

Oprah Winfrey can tell us all day long that Obama is right for America and she believes in him. But, if we are being honest, really honest, we all know why Oprah backs him. Oprah has been silent on politics until now. No candidate for public office before has caused her to speak out. No subject, no legislation and no gender has caused her public backing of a candidate. Yet she backs Obama. Fine, but lets just come out and give us the real reason. His race. If that is the reason she wants him there, fine. She can vote for whomever for whatever reason she wants, let just not try and pretend he is that unique. He has no special policy or unheard of idea that make him unlike any other politician that has run during her public life. He does have one thing.

I find very little difference between folks who refuse to vote for person “a” because of their race or gender and those who will only vote for “a” because of their race or gender and aren’t honest enough to admit it. Either way you dragging MLK’s “Dream” through the mud.

This is the “Race Issue” of this election, not what the media would try and have us believe..

2- Electoral College:
It really does not matter if 99% of those living in NY or California vote for Obama, he will still only get the 86 electoral votes those states offer. It really does not matter if Obama wins the popular vote, you only need 1 more vote than the other guy to get the electoral votes. In this way the college works exactly the way the framers meant it to. It moderates the influence one group from one area has over the whole. For more on it and its origins, read here

3- Taxes:
This summer Obama said he would raise capital gains taxes. Then he said he wouldn’t. Then he said 95% of people get a tax break. Then he said people under $250k would. Then Joe Biden said people under $150K would. Now his adviser Bill Richardson said people under $120k will. Call it the “incredible shrinking tax break”. People in the current environment has no problem with “rich folks” getting a tax increase. The problem is that the definition of rich has been plummeting recently and now encompasses those who just aren’t. People see it for what it is and will think twice about voting for a candidate with a fluctuating definition of who deserves to pay more. These voters will have a last minute change of heart and no polls will reflect it.

4- MSM.
We American’s know a snow-job when we see it. Every poll taking at every levels says the same thing. The media has treated Obama with kid gloves. This isn’t a GOP vs Dem thing, this goes back to Dems vs Dems saying it when the issue was one of their own, Hillary. It is just acceptable now that it is the “other guy” we are talking about. What happens is people, feeling that they are not getting the straight story from the MSM go looking for it in other places. They begin to discount and distrust what is said from the MSM. The easiest place to find alternative information is the internet. Here is where that hurts Obama. We all know about political information on the internet and it questionable veracity. When people do their own research and find negative information on Obama, it is viewed as “this is what the media is hiding from us” and looked at more truthfully, providing a negative effect for Obama. When the same information is seen about McCain, the effect is negligible as we have already heard it from the MSM and this cause it to be discounted. Whether what is being said is true or not is immaterial, it is the perception of the information that leads to it acceptance or ejection.

Again, right or wrong, is irrelevant, is what it is. The media, in it zeal to effect the outcome, hurts its own cause. If anyone thinks the average voter has forgotten CBS’s “National Guard forged document” story in 2004 that cost Dan Rather his career and that is not the lens most people put any media report through, is living in denial.

5- The “Undecided”:
They aren’t. They just want pollsters to leave them alone. They are the un-ideological masses in the middle. They tend to lean center-right. They are social liberal and economic conservatives. They are the group that most identifies with Palin and her family. They are also the group most sensitive to the attacks on her children, her clothing and her “inexperience”. They are the group who can’t understand how a Governor has less experience than a 2 year Senator. They are also the group not thrilled with politicians and like someone who reminds them of themselves. The hockey mom, mom of a “challenged” kid, mom of a unwed pregnant daughter, mom of five, dedicated wife….they like that. Where the media sees “black eyes” , they see themselves, their neighbor, their sister. When the MSM attacks her, they attack them. This causes the gut reaction of “circling the wagons” and an innate sense protection. This will sway their vote.

6- Divided government.
The electorate has done a decent job over the years not giving one group a blanket mandate. They will do so again this year. This means either of two things. The congressional races do not go the way the pundits say they will, OR Obama loses. We know congressional democrats will raise taxes. We know we don’t want that. We also know if we vote in Ohio we cannot affect a vote in Wisconsin for Congress. How can we assure government is divided? Vote for McCain.

7- Polls
People are now playing games with pollsters. They are meaningless. George Bush trailed both Gore and Kerry late in October only to win. Bush trailed in “exit polls” in several states only to win them also. Both parties have found a way to game pollsters in order to keep races looking tight to keep voters coming out for their candidate. For this reason, polls are not only worthless, they may actually be a counter indication. If a organization thinks they may be losing or have a razor thin margin, they will make the exit polls reflect a negative outcome to keep their folks coming out and the others to stay home. We know it happened in Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004, no reason to think anything has changed.

My prediction?

Obama beats McCain in the popular vote and losses the election…..

I would also be shocked if there was not a legal challenge somewhere to whatever outcome there is..

It will give the media years of angst about the electoral college and enable them to try an re-write the constitution. The Constitution was purposely set up to eliminate as best it could government by a few, a whim, or emotion. It does a very good job or that. The electoral college also does a great job of not minimizing smaller states and their minority of the population. It matters and is important, it forces all views and needs to be considered.

Then again, if Obama wins in a landslide……never mind…

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