Waiting, Waiting, Waiting

It really is the hardest thing to do.

So on Sunday March 8th I was on Fox News talking about what I felt was an upcoming rally in the stock market.

That Monday the S&P (.INX) sat at 676 and today hovers at the 800 market for a 18% gain in a dozen trading days. Great? No. Why not you say? While I expected a large rally, I did not think it would begin the following day. Because of that, names I own and was looking at adding to like GE (GE), Dow Chemical (DOW) and AutoNation (AN) have all climbed over 30% since then. The bad news is that I did not add to them then.

Do you know how hard it is to have something you wanted to buy, at an unbelievable price climb and to not have added to what you own? The near irresistible impulse is to run out an chase it higher and buy is killing me. There is also the self aggravation of NOT pulling the trigger then because you decided to wait it out just a bit longer, yes, I’m annoyed at myself.

But, I’m not buying now. Why? While the market was in my humble opinion too low at 676, there is not a real reason it should be at 800 now, this soon. The economic landscape, while not deteriorating as badly as before, is by no means improving. Recent housing numbers were not positive, unemployment still getting worse and lending still restricted.

Banks, rather than taking TARP money and helping to expand the economy has grown tired of overbearing politicians have decided it is not worth it to have it and has said they will instead pay it back. This is bad for growth.

Now, things aren’t desperate. I am not gloom and doom. I just do not think the value of US business is 18% higher today than it was 12 days a go.

So I wait. I wait for the recalibration of value I think is coming and then I will be sure the next time not to miss the lower prices.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Dow, GE, AN

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