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Weekend Reading: Dueling Budgets

This week I posted on the CBO’s review of the President’s proposed budget. Below is the GOP version.

This is a budget that will stimulate growth. Lower the corporate tax rate to entice business that has left back to the US, suspend capital gains taxes to spur investment, stop the automatic tax increase scheduled to take effect in 2010 and reduced government spending vs Obama budget.

But, don’t believe me, read for yourself.

Here is the two page summary:
GOP Budget Summary

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Here is the full document:
Proposed GOP Budget Proposed GOP Budget todd sullivan This is much better

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Sears Holdings Trade Detail in Sears Canada Purchases

What is interesting is how constantly Sears Holdings (SHLD) and Lampert have been buying shares in Sears Canada (SCC.T). A bit here a bit there and then the occasional large chunk.

Hit “+” to enlarge text..
Sears Holdings Purchase of Sears Canada Trade Detail Sears Holdings Purchase of Sears Canada Trade Detail todd sullivan Sears Holdings purchases of Sears Canada stock.

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Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHLD, none

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Ben Bernanke’s Wants to Be On Your Favorite’s List

Fed Chief Ben Bernanke cracked a joke today at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond 2009 Credit Markets Symposium, Charlotte, North Carolina…

An excellent source of information on our balance sheet, by the way, is a new section of the Board’s website, entitled Credit and Liquidity Programs and the Balance Sheet.2 This section brings together much diverse information about the Fed’s balance sheet, including some only recently made available, as well as detailed explanations and analyses. Serious Fed watchers should add this link to their online favorites list.

Granted a stand up act is not in his future but we all could use a little levity.

Anyone know how we can “friend” Ben on Facebook?

Full Speach


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Latest Appearence on Wall St. Media (video fixed)

Thanks to Doug and the folks at Wall St. Media for chatting with me on Thursday morning.

Topics covered:

– The Economy
– FASB mark-to-market changes
General Growth Properties (GGP)
– RHI Enterntainment (RHIE), (as of this writing up 59% since video aired). Post on it here


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GGP, RHIE

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Ackman, Zell Comment on General Growth Properties

More commentary on the proposition of Generak Growth (GGP) shareholder being kept whole in bankruptcy. 

From Reuters

Ackman Commented:

“Bankruptcy is not just designed for companies that are insolvent,” Ackman told a packed room of real estate investors, owners, analysts and bankers attending the New York University Schack Institute of Real Estate 14th Annual REIT Symposium.

“Bankruptcy is also designed for companies that are solvent, but have liquidity problems that are due to events outside of their control,”…

“It’s one of the most interesting investment opportunities I’ve seen in my career,” he said.

“I’ve learned that, when a solvent company files for bankruptcy and you have a lead equity holder, you can marshal it thorough the bankruptcy process,” Ackman said.

“If you’ve got a situation where you have a small equity cap and you can sell 90 percent of your stock and de-equitize yourself or you can file and retain equity value for shareholders, you should look at that very, very seriously.”

He compared its plight to that of Alexander’s Inc, the failed department store. Real estate titan Steve Roth, chairman of Vornado Realty Trust (VNO), bought the shares and put the company into bankruptcy in 1992. The stock eventually  surpassed $450 a share

Read more on Ackman and Alexander’s (ALX) here:

Real Estate mogul Sam Zell, who sold Equity Office, the giant U.S. office owner, at what is now seen as the top of the market, said General Growth would likely file for bankruptcy protection.

“I do not believe GGP will be liquidated,” Zell said, speaking at the same conference. “I expect the company to file bankruptcy. It will do a prepackaged. It will be reorganized and it will be taken public.”

Here is more information on legal precedent for debt restructuring and equity being kept whole in bankruptcy

Now, a boilerplate warning for GGP. I know people have been following into this investment. If you do, you must be prepared to lose all of it. There is no guarantee of the above outcome. Buying this stock now is essentially buying a call option on the company’s survival. It is hits, you win big, very big. If not, what you invested is worth nothing. I believe the above scenario plays out, I am also not going to be broke should it not.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GGP

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Updated Tweedy Browne Ben Graham Analysis

This is brain candy for the value folks….

What Has Worked in Investing What Has Worked in Investing todd sullivan Great research

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Borders and It’s Inventory

Been reading a lot of comments on Borders (BGP) recent quarter. The general theme is that Borders is cutting inventory too much, can’t cut it anymore, and in doing either is risking not carrying titles people want.

Some clarifaction is necessary.

Notes from the recent earnings call Q&A:

Ron Marshall

What’s important is while I don’t think that we’re going to have another grand announcement on cost reductions this year. I think what you will see and what we’ll be able to talk about as the quarters click off is a continual improvement in some of our core processes. One of the things we’ve talked a lot about is reducing cycle times inside our organization.

A really good example is we used to order from most of our large vendors once every 12 weeks, essentially once a quarter. We’ve already compressed that cycle time from 12 weeks to four weeks. Four weeks isn’t the right number, its either two weeks or one week but four weeks is a lot easier and a lot better to deal with then 12.

As we do that the ability to take additional inventory add as we compress safety stock and obviously it’s easier to forecast four weeks out then 12 weeks out. You’ll see some inventory improvements but you’ll also see some operating cost improvements as we’re only handling the product once rather than two or three times.

David Weiner – Deutsche Bank

Obviously you’ve been cutting inventories pretty substantially. Can you talk about what impact that has on your credit line availability, I think your total line is over a billion dollars but as you cut inventories how does this impact the amount that maybe you can actually borrow?

Mark Bierley

I think the key thing here is we look at the productivity of the inventory. If we’re taking inventory out we’re taking out inventory that quite frankly we own. So it allows us to recapture cash flow and improve our overall liquidity position. What we’re doing with inventory and Ron described it as getting smarter in terms of the replenishment, how frequently we order, how we order our front list.

We’ve sped up our return channel back through the returns process from our stores this year. Quite frankly just getting to a point where you’re improving the overall optimization of that inventory and quite frankly good things come from that in the cash flow and the liquidity standpoint.

The reduction in inventory expense is not just a function of “not carrying books” but one of a more just in time inventory system. It is also clear from the comments that Borders intends to further reduce this time between orders another 50% to 75%.

The inevitable error that occurs when ordering once a quarter is that excess must be requested to avoid shortfalls. There is almost no way to avoid it. By increasing the frequency the cash flow consequences are hugely positive and the inventory levels that must be carried at any given point are dramatically reduced.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP

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The Case For RHI Entertainment

A follow up to yesterday’s post….

First, let’s get into more detail on what they really do and to find it we’ll comb the 10-K filing with the sec.

Overview

We develop, produce and distribute new made-for-television movies, mini-series and other television programming worldwide. We are the leading provider of new long-form television content, including domestic made-for-television, or MFT, movies and mini-series. We also selectively produce new episodic series programming for television. In addition to our development, production and distribution of new content, we own an extensive library of existing long-form television content, which we license primarily to broadcast and cable networks worldwide.

Our business is comprised of the licensing of new film production and the licensing of existing content from our film library in territories around the world. Licensing rights in our film library generate contractual accounts receivable. The contractual accounts receivable reflect license agreements we have entered into with third parties for rights to our film content in future periods. The ability to license our library content in this manner provides us with visibility into long-term library cash flow

Made-for-television movies

Our MFT movie franchise focuses on the production of films with dramatic, suspenseful, or more recently, action/thriller storylines which are generally two broadcast hours in length. With production costs of $1.0 to $2.0 million per broadcast hour, our MFT movies limit our financial risk with their short production cycles and pre-sales which typically recoup the majority of our cost of production. In 2007 and 2008 our pre-sales equaled 84% and 70% of our MFT movie production costs, respectively. The decline in pre-sales as a percentage of production costs reflects lower sales activity resulting from the general economic slow down in the second half of the year and our operating decision to provide exploitation windows for programming on ION Media Networks (ION) and/or pay-per-view (PPV), prior to exploitation windows on broadcast or cable networks.

MFT movies are ordered by broadcast and cable networks and have become an integral part of the broadcast strategies of these programmers. Networks license the rights to air films that meet the characteristics of the network’s genre and therefore will appeal to their viewers. In 2008, we delivered multiple MFT movies to the Hallmark Channel, Lifetime, the Sci-Fi Channel and Spike TV. In 2009, we have completed development and have begun production for several MFT movies, which have already been licensed to broadcast and cable networks.

Mini-series

Over the past 20 years, we have shaped the mini-series industry with award winning and highly-rated releases like Lonesome Dove, Gulliver’s Travels, Human Trafficking, Tin Man and Mitch Albom’s The Five People You Meet in Heaven. A mini-series is typically four broadcast hours in length and production costs are approximately $2 to $5 million per broadcast hour of content. Typically, mini-series are ordered by broadcast and cable networks on a picture-by-picture basis. In 2007, we pre-sold more than 100% of our production costs for mini-series. In 2008, the pre-sales were 80% of our production costs for mini-series, reflecting the lower sales activity resulting from the general economic slowdown in the second half of the year and our operating decision to provide exploitation windows for programming on ION as noted above.

Long-form television library

With more than 1,000 titles, comprising over 3,500 broadcast hours of long-form television programming, our library is an important source of contractual cash flow, revenue and growth for our business. Our film library is enhanced each year with the addition of new MFT movies, mini-series and other television programming as their initial licenses expire. These new productions add value to the film library and ensure that it remains current. We believe that the talent and recognizability of the actors and actresses starring in our productions, along with the subject matter, result in our library having a long shelf life. Classic MFT movies and mini-series such as Cleopatra, Alice In Wonderland, Call of the Wild, Dinotopia, Arabian Nights, Merlin, The Odyssey and The Lion in Winter are examples of our library content which have been repeatedly licensed to our customers over the last several years.

Our productions have won 105 Emmy® Awards, 15 Golden Globes Awards and eight Peabody Awards.

Now, put you thinking cap on here. The company’s top customers are the Hallmark channel and Lifetime. What risk is there that they could lose, say the Hallmark account? This why you read the 10-k notes:

On January 12, 2006, HEI Acquisition, LLC acquired all of the membership interests in Hallmark Entertainment from HEH, subject to a Purchase and Sale Agreement (PSA) dated November 29, 2005 (the Acquisition). HEI Acquisition, LLC was immediately merged with and into Hallmark Entertainment and its name was concurrently changed to RHI LLC. RHI LLC’s sole member is Holdings, a limited liability company controlled by affiliates of Kelso. (RHI owns 46% of Kelso…note mine)

The Company acquired Hallmark Entertainment in order for it to execute its business strategy. The purchase price reflects the Company’s assessment that Hallmark Entertainment could be managed more efficiently and profitably when operated independently allowing the Company to refine its business model and production strategy by focusing on the most profitable content rather than volume, broadening and diversifying the type of content that it develops, produces and distributes and exploiting new distribution opportunities.

You know the “Hallmark Original” movies you see on the channel? Yup, they make em’

A 2008 10-Q says it more clearly:

On January 12, 2006, Hallmark Entertainment Holdings, LLC (Hallmark) sold its 100% interest in Hallmark Entertainment, LLC (Hallmark Entertainment) to HEI Acquisition, LLC. HEI Acquisition, LLC was immediately merged with and into Hallmark Entertainment and its name was changed to RHI Entertainment, LLC (RHI LLC or the Predecessor Company). Subsequent to the transaction, RHI LLC’s sole member was RHI Entertainment Holdings, LLC (Holdings), a limited liability company controlled by affiliates of Kelso & Company L.P. (Kelso). RHI LLC is engaged in the development, production and distribution of made-for-television movies, mini-series and other television programming (collectively, Films).

On June 23, 2008, RHI Entertainment, Inc. (RHI Inc. or the Successor Company) completed its initial public offering (the IPO).

But in the words of Apple’s Steve Jobs “wait, there’s more”

The Hallmark Channel is owned by Crown Media Holdings (CRWN). Back to the 10-k:

On October 5, 2006, the Company entered into a definitive agreement with Crown Media to purchase Crown Media Distribution, LLC for $160.0 million (subject to certain accounts receivable adjustments). The assets of Crown Media Distribution, LLC are comprised of a completed film library consisting of approximately 550 titles and approximately 2,400 hours of programming (Crown Film Library) and trade accounts receivable.

So, you know the “Hallmark Hall of Fame” movies? Yup, they own them.From Crown’s recent 10-k

Until we sold our domestic library to RHI Entertainment LLC on December 15, 2006, we licensed our film assets to broadcasters and video distributors (pay television channel providers) who paid a license fee for the right to exhibit or distribute the programming over a certain period of time.

In short, they essentially own the content Hallmark runs on its network. Nice.

But you’ll say, “Todd, they reported a loss last year!!” Back to 10-K

We have incurred net losses in the past largely due to amortization of film production costs, inclusive of impairment charges, and interest expense on our outstanding indebtedness. During the year ended December 31, 2008, a non-cash impairment charge of $59.8 million with respect to goodwill was recorded as the result of our stock price declining significantly to a level implying a market capitalization below our book value.

Without the goodwill charge the company earned NI of $16 million or $1.23 a share.

What about that book value? As of 12/31 it stood at $7.85 a share vs a $1.89 a share stock price today or you could say the company sells at 24% of its book value.

FULL 10-K


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Will be going long RHI, none

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Friday’s Links

Gitmo, Bailout, Taxes, The Right to Fail

“Fun”

– Why are bondholders being protected?

– A lesson from Rush




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Jamie Dimon’s Discusses Crisis In Shareholder Letter

Jamie Dimon’s letter to JP Morgan (JPM) shareholders is indeed a great one.

Notables:
– “Perhaps the largest regulatory failure of all time was the inadequate regulation of Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddi Mac (FRE)”
– “Too many regulators – with overlapping responsibilities and inadequate authorities were ill-equipped to handle the crisis”.

If you do not care about Morgan’s results, skip to page 14 where Dimon comments on the crisis. He tackles it causes, the response and what to do going forward to prevent another one.

Here is the letter:
2008 Jamie Dimon Letter to JP MorganShareholder 2008 Jamie Dimon Letter to JP MorganShareholder todd sullivan Pay attention to what he says about regulation

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"Davidson": Still Doubting Case-Shiller

“Davidson” takes Robert Shiller to task again. A month ago Davidson submitted this post showing Case Shiller methodology flawed.

Robert Shiller’s home pricing analysis has created panic in the hearts of every home owner, every bank lender, home builder, the managements at home furnishing suppliers, lumber companies, cement companies and etc. Lending businesses of every type and description are in shear panic of a highly uncertain and dire future. I believe that Shiller’s widely disseminated forecast needs perspective.

FIRST:

The March 2009 data for NAREIT was released this morning and the index history from 1987-Present is presented below. I use 1987 as a starting point because Congress changed the tax laws to make “tax shelters” uneconomical in 1986 and the tax regime has been the same since. The point I make here is that when we invest in REITs as an allocation, we do so using the common stock and not by buying the actual asset. The NAREIT Index has fallen 67% from Jan 2007 to Feb 2009. The current valuation is well below the historical pace and as long as the tax law does not change, I fully expect the pricing of REITs to return to the historical performance level.

An important factor (but not the only factor) in my thinking is William Isaccs’ Testimony to the House Financial Services Comm on March 12, 2009 which I have attached to this email and I encourage you to read carefully. In his testimony he indicates that Mark-to-Market is today’s worst problem and

“I was Chairman of the FDIC during the banking crisis of the 1980s. The problems in the U.S. financial system in the 1980s, despite what we are hearing from some government leaders and the media, were more serious than we are facing thus far today.”

I urge you to look at the 1990 decline in the NAREIT Index (Chart 1) which Isaccs calls worse than what we see today. The NAREIT Index tells me that the current market has overstated the current situation. (Click on the chart to expand the corners to more easily view the details) Remember when we buy REITs we are buying stocks that represent the market’s perception of the value of the underlying assets. Real estate has never in the history of the NAREIT Index fallen 67%

Chart 1(click to enlarge):

SECOND:

I have reproduced below Shiller’s Unadjusted for Inflation Housing Price Data 1890-2008(Chart 2) taken from Shiller’s http://www.irrationalexuberance.com/ and the comparison of the Shiller late1980’s-early 1990’s (Chart 3) real estate decline vs. the current real estate decline as published at http://paper-money.blogspot.com/

Chart 2: Shiller’s Unadjusted Housing Price Data 1890-2008(click to enlarge)

Chart 3: (click to enlarge)

My first observation is that Robert Shiller makes a broad forecast using the complete period from 1890-2008. When I view his data it is apparent that crucial events in 1933 enabled the Federal Reserve to not only provide economic stabilization during times of distress but to set national baking regulation. My interpretation is that by lessening the downturns in our economy caused by a pre-1933 unregulated financial industry, the Federal Reserve lessened the capital destruction and the US economy and housing stock grew out of post-1933 economic declines from serially higher lows. The effect in home valuations and the gradual willingness to use borrowed funds has provided fulfillment to many American dreams. I have drawn valuation channels for these two very different economic periods and added rates of return that came from this analysis in the chart below. Robert Shiller treats the 1890-2008 price series as having a continuous economic environment.

I had puzzled over Shiller’s forecasts for some time as they appeared so dire, yet the history in the NAREIT above and the Nominal Housing Prices below did not fit the oft repeated forecasts.

The Shiller House Pricing Data is Inflation Adjusted, BUT we think in terms of the Nominal Price and banks lend against the Nominal Price.

Shiller’s forecast is an inflation adjusted forecast, but the media does not present it this way. We think in Nominal Prices, the price we see every day. When Shiller compares price declines during the last home price decline period to those of the current period as is presented in Chart 3 from paper-money.blogspot, these are inflation adjusted prices and not those that we actually experienced in the decline of the late 1980’s-early 1990’s. We experienced a 3% Nominal Price decline from 1990 to 1991.(See the Shiller Unadj Housing Price Data 1987-1997 Chart 4 below) Importantly, banks lend against the Nominal Price not the Inflation Adjusted Price.

Chart 4 (click to enlarge):

Our national panic over falling prices and owners being underwater vs. Inflation Adjusted Cost Basis is not how we or the banks think. It seems that we have suddenly come to accept a pricing methodology that we have never before considered valid.

In my view the current panic heavily promoted by the media needs to step back a bit and not take Robert Shiller’s price decline forecast as a Nominal Price decline forecast which is what I think we are doing.


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FASB Changes Create More Accounting Ambiguity

Back in May 2008 I posted “Why Mark to Market Sucks“. Today the FASB took steps to alter it but in doing so, may have made the issue even worse.

Here is what the FASB said:
FASB Mark To Market Changes

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This does not truly address the issue and will lead to more investor confusion and doubt to the validty of finanial statements:

For instance, look at this section on marking debt instruments held to maturity:

The staff believes the Board’s intention was to require that credit losses be measured based on an entity’s estimate of the decrease in expected cash flows, similar to the model used to measure loan losses in Statement 114. The staff notes that the Statement 114 model was not prescribed in the FSP because comment letters received on proposed FSP FAS 107-a, Disclosures about Certain Financial Assets, expressed concerns about applying that model to available-for-sale and held-to-maturity debt securities. The staff believes these concerns primarily related to requiring the same model (the Statement 114 model) for all debt securities, including securities subject to Issue 99-20 and corporate bonds.

The staff recommends that the FSP clarify that credit losses should based on the reporting entity’s estimate of the decrease in expected cash flows or the entity’s best estimate of the amount of the other-than-temporary impairment that relates to credit deterioration. The staff recommends that the FSP continue to refer Statement 114 as a possible method that could be used to estimate credit losses and to require that investments accounted for in accordance with Issue 99-20 apply the guidance in that Issue. However, the staff does not recommend that the Board prescribe a specific method to be applied for securities that are not subject to Issue 99-20.

Also, for some instruments, such as those described in paragraph 14 of FASB Statement No. 140, Accounting for Transfers and Servicing of Financial Assets and Extinguishments of Liabilities, because an increase in prepayments would result in a decrease in expected cash flows, the staff recommends that the Board clarify that a decrease in expected cash flows that results from an increase in expected prepayments should be accounted for as a credit loss when an entity is determining the amount of an other-than temporary impairment related to credit losses that should be recognized in earnings.

Let’s do a real basic example:
I have debt instrument (MBS) “x”. I am supposed to value it based on “expected” losses in cash flows and prepayments. Why? Why just just value it on actual cash flows and adjust for prepayments? Simple example. I own MBS 101 that has 10, $100k mortgages in it all paying 10%. All are current so my MBS carries a value of 100. One loan gets pre-payed so my $1 million MBS now has $900k in mortgages but, all are still current and I receive d full payment on the pre-payed loan so it is still worth 100.

John and Mary default on one of the loans so I now have a $900K MBS but only 88% of the cash flows from it. That ought to be the current mark. What someone will pay for it if it is held to maturity means nothing. It ought to be market at what it is currently paying vs its potential.

Once you get into estimation of future defaults, doesn’t the whole idea of transparency become moot as it is now gone? Depending on the estimation, there lies the mark.

What the FASB has done is decrease the irrational market marks on banks book while at the same time creating increase investor skepticism of the new ones. It is not good for banks looking for investors or a market looking for clarity.


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NY Times 2002 Piece on Lampert

This is interesting. Thanks to “Davidson” for emailing the article. Sorry but do not have original link to the article on Sears Holdings (SHLD) Chairman Eddie Lampert.

Personal Business; Big Returns, Minus the Pleasantries

By GERALDINE FABRIKANT

Published: February 17, 2002

HE is known as secretive, controlling and so impatient for success and obsessed with work that some who know him say he takes little note of people unless he needs them.

Warm and fuzzy Edward S. Lampert is not. But that has not seemed to matter. Mr. Lampert, a 39-year-old money manager, has scored an extraordinary 14-year record of value investing, with an average annual return of 24.5 percent. The 2001 performance of the ESL Partnerships, a group of hedge funds he controls, was particularly stunning: it soared 66 percent as the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index sank 13 percent. Even after the typically high hedge fund fees, his investors had a 53 percent return.

He has attracted a host of superwealthy clients over the last decade, including David Geffen, the media mogul; Thomas J. Tisch, a son of Laurence Tisch, the co-chairman of the Loews Corporation; Michael S. Dell of Dell Computer; and Ziff Brothers Investments, the principals of which are the sons of the publisher William B. Ziff Jr.

”Eddie is probably the best single money manager of his generation, but he has never thought that a great bedside manner in investing was the No. 1 thing,” said Richard Rainwater, the Texas financier. In fact, Mr. Rainwater, one of his first big backers, had his own run-in with Mr. Lampert years ago.

Mr. Lampert is dismissive of the criticism. ”Our focus has been first and foremost on earning returns for our partners,” he said.

His dazzling returns have come from a high-wire act of intensely heavy concentration in a handful of companies and of betting for the longer term. Currently, 85 percent of the $5 billion that ESL invests is in just eight companies. He has avoided Internet stocks and other fads over the years and has instead sought holdings in more mundane companies like AutoZone, a car parts retailer, and the Deluxe Corporation, a check-printing and electronic payment services concern. During the 1990’s, his fund made killings in American Express and I.B.M.

Because of such heavy concentration, poor performance of a single stock can drag down total returns, and selling out of such illiquid positions can be tough. But, he said, ”If you have just 10 names and one blows up, you have less risk than if you are highly leveraged and you don’t really understand the other companies well.”

Clearly, he has made it work. Since he started his fund business in 1988, he has had returns there that are nearly double the 13 percent of the S.& P. 500, according to company documents obtained by The New York Times.

”There are very few investors who have done that over time,” said Jeffrey Tarrant, the founder and an advisory board member of Altvest, which tracks hedge funds.

Even last year, when short-selling funds did well in a falling market, his returns came from plain-vanilla, long-term investing, though his hedge fund can go short, or bet on market declines. In 2001, ESL trounced the CSFB Tremont hedge fund long/short equity index, which fell 3.65 percent.

IN the tightknit world of money managers to the superrich, Mr. Lampert is watched closely but is hard to follow. Until he has to file public documents after acquiring more than 5 percent of a company, he is reluctant to share information with even some of his highest-profile investors, like Mr. Tisch and Mr. Geffen.

That is noteworthy, given that both are longtime investors, that Mr. Tisch is a friend as well, and that Mr. Geffen’s $200 million investment in 1992 helped put Mr. Lampert on the money management map.

In an interview in his low-key suite of offices in Greenwich, Conn., where he works with a staff of 15, Mr. Lampert said: ”I tell people in advance what our practices are. If they don’t like those practices, they have a choice not to invest.” He is extremely proud of — some say arrogant about — his track record, which he likens to that of the basketball superstar Michael Jordan. ”People keep criticizing him,” Mr. Lampert said, ”but he keeps winning.”

For the privilege of riding along, ESL investors are asked to put up at least $10 million. They must pay a 1 percent management fee and 20 percent of profits — standard requirements for hedge funds, those investment vehicles for institutions and the superwealthy. They must also agree to lock up their money for at least five years — a highly unusual requirement. Most hedge funds allow annual withdrawals.

The lockup provision has discouraged several foundations from putting money into ESL, according to one hedge fund manager who serves on some foundation boards. But it has not deterred a host of sophisticated investors. ”You know your money is tucked in safe every night,” Mr. Tisch said. ”You know it isn’t chasing some silliness. He’s investing with solid, proven principles.”

The five-year lockup ”gives us time to build and to exit a position without having to worry about investors forcing liquidations,” Mr. Lampert said. ESL has kept its most profitable holdings an average of four years, qualifying them as long-term gains for tax purposes.

Mr. Lampert began requiring the lockup after his only down year: in 1990, investors lost 16 percent. Mr. Lampert had bought stock in the middle of the year, though by December the market had plunged. ”It was terrible,” he recalled. But for investors who stayed, the fund soared 56 percent in 1991. That underscored for him the value of having capital locked up through weak periods.

AutoZone was the big payoff last year. It also reflects another of his tactics — an increasingly active role in companies in which he invests. Attracted by AutoZone’s cash flows, brand name and low profile on Wall Street, he began acquiring shares in 1997. For two years, the stock barely budged, but Mr. Lampert kept buying. In mid-1999, James Hedges IV, a hedge fund consultant and a mutual friend of Mr. Lampert and AutoZone’s founder, Joseph Hyde III, arranged for them to meet.

Mr. Hyde recalls vividly the lunch at his 600-acre ranch, WildCat, in Aspen, Colo. ”He had visited our stores, talked to management up and down the line and knew everything — far more than most money managers,” Mr. Hyde recalled. ”Most investors talk to management and that’s it. But he had a fanatical awareness of the company.”

(The scrutiny continues: A report sent to shareholders in 2001 states that ESL employees had visited or spoken with people at 690 of the more than 3,000 AutoZone stores.)

In 1999, Mr. Lampert, who then owned about 15 percent of AutoZone stock, also gained a seat on the board. He believes that board membership allows him to participate in discussions of important decisions.

A year later, the board put in a poison-pill provision that would have been set off had he increased his stake. He fought it, and the board backed down. The poison pill was rescinded and the chief executive, John C. Adams, resigned. Mr. Lampert led the committee that in early 2001 brought in Steve Odland, an executive at Ahold USA, the subsidiary of the Dutch company. Under Mr. Odland, AutoZone increased its gross margins by two percentage points in the most recent quarter, ended Nov. 30.

For most of last year, ESL had 30 million shares of AutoZone, or 27.8 percent of the company. In that time, the stock more than doubled in value.

THERE have been disappointments, too. For example, Mr. Lampert holds 12 percent of Payless ShoeSource, the shoe retailer. Its stock fell from $70.75 a share at the end of 2000 to $56.15 at the end of 2001, dragging down Mr. Lampert’s investment by 20.6 percent, to $153 million. The shares closed at $56.94 on Friday.

A small investment in the ANC Rental Corporation, the parent of Alamo Rent-a-Car and National Car Rental, ended badly when the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in November.
The son of a lawyer and a homemaker, Mr. Lampert grew up in Roslyn, N.Y., on Long Island. The family lived in middle-class comfort until he was 14, when his father died of a heart attack. Mr. Lampert says the death put financial pressure on the family and is partly responsible for his relentless drive for financial security.

He became interested in investing during visits to his grandmother’s home in Miami, where they would study the stock market together. ”She owned a handful of stocks,” he recalled. ”I.B.M. and AT&T. She always wanted a good dividend. In her simplicity, she was profound.”

Mr. Lampert said his grandmother, who did not have much money, invested as a hobby. ”I thought she was good,” he said, ”but I never calculated her returns.”

At Yale, he majored in economics, and, contrary to his mother’s wishes, he decided to skip law school.

Early on, he showed great skill at cultivating powerful people who could help him move ahead in the elite world of finance. One story, in particular, has long made the rounds. While at Yale, he managed to snare a summer job at Goldman Sachs, and pursued an acquaintance with Robert E. Rubin, then head of risk arbitrage there. One day, Mr. Lampert offered to help carry his heavy briefcases to a rental car, gaining the ear of his quarry. He ultimately landed a job in the risk arbitrage department.

In a recent phone interview, Mr. Rubin, who later became Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration and is now chairman of the executive committee of Citigroup, said he did not remember the incident but did not dispute it. He said he did recall thinking: ”Eddie will go out on his own one day. He won’t stay at Goldman Sachs.”

Though some associates regarded such efforts by Mr. Lampert to parlay connections into cash as distasteful, Mr. Lampert counters: ”I want to be with people who can challenge me to be better.”

It was while he was at Goldman that Mr. Lampert met Mr. Rainwater, famous in the investment world for managing the Bass brothers’ fortune through the early 1980’s. He and Mr. Rainwater were introduced by mutual friends on Nantucket in 1987, and Mr. Lampert made sure to stay in touch.

In 1988, he left Goldman to work with Mr. Rainwater. His drive was evident. Over the summer, again on Nantucket, Mr. Lampert almost never left Mr. Rainwater’s house, Mr. Rainwater recalled. ”He slept in the room, ate in the room, never went to the beach, never saw the beach,” Mr. Rainwater said. ”I don’t think he ever went out to dinner with us.”

Mr. Rainwater backed his protégé by putting up the bulk of the $28 million in Mr. Lampert’s first fund, which the young investor ran from Mr. Rainwater’s Fort Worth office. Mr. Lampert was focusing on risk arbitrage and value investing. But after just a year, the strong-willed men clashed when Mr. Lampert wanted more control over what types of investments he could make. At the time, associates say, the parting was extremely acrimonious, and Mr. Rainwater withdrew his money.

In 1992, after a few more years of working in Texas, Mr. Lampert moved to Greenwich, at the urging of Mr. Geffen, whom he had met through Mr. Rainwater. ”David told me I needed to get a life,” he recalled.

But Mr. Lampert’s obsessions went with him. According to several people who have worked with him, he still works nonstop and makes all the decisions himself. One former employee said, ”Even if you presented a research report and he could not punch holes in it, he would not buy it.”

Mr. Lampert concedes the point. ”Most of the ideas come from me,” he said. ”I am the only person who has the ability to allocate capital.”

He also exercises very tight control over compensation, a former employee said. ”You were expected to work hard to make him rich,” he said. ”Bonuses were discretionary and Eddie was pretty moody, so you never knew how you would come out.”

Mr. Lampert seems to have come out fine. Though he declined to discuss his personal finances, several people who know him say he is worth $700 million or more. He has a home in Aspen and a sprawling estate in Greenwich, where he and his wife, Kinga Lampert, were married last summer.

Several hedge fund managers say the compensation arrangements for members of his staff are a bit controlling, but Mr. Lampert says they are more than fair. While employees are not pressured to invest in the fund, ”they were just prohibited from investing anywhere else,” he said. That, he said, could work to their interest.

Employees are not the only ones who can be put off by his style. One veteran money manager described a social lunch several years ago: ”He picked my brain on stocks, but offered nothing. The next time, I decided to talk about fishing until he offered something. So we never got past fishing.”

EVEN had Mr. Lampert been forthcoming, his investment strategy might have sounded deceptively simple: sticking to the basics. Because he tends to take large positions, each stock decision is crucial.

He studied the Internet but avoided the sector despite its wild run-up: ”Most businesses, as they grow, have a model where they make more money as they get more customers. Internet companies seemed to lose more money as that happened.”

He also does not like what he calls ”the vision thing.” ”Average investors like themes,” he said. ”A lot of times you pay a high price for the vision, and you can lose 80 percent of your money.”

Mr. Lampert also shies away from capital-intensive businesses. He says he believes that Intel, the computer chip maker, ”is a terrific business, but for it to exist, it has to keep feeding more and more money in, and it needs to be right when it does it.”

”If it is wrong,” he added, ”that will be a huge problem.”

He doesn’t like convoluted financial statements. Even when Enron was soaring, Mr. Lampert said, he was not interested. ”Complex financials don’t necessarily mean there is something wrong,” he said. ”But if you don’t have a clue, why invest?”

Grandma would have been proud.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHLD

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Seth Klarman Ups RHI Stake to Over 36%

Earlier this week Klarman’s Baupost Group purchased an additional 437,000 share of RHI at $1.19 a share.

Klarman now has 36.9% of the outstanding shares.

Here is the trading data for this year.

Klarman has been in touch with management as the 13D/A stated:

“The shares were acquired for investment in the ordinary course of business. Although the Reporting Persons intend from time to time to discuss with management issues about the Issuer and its strategic direction…”

So, what is RHI Entertainment (RHIE) and what the hell do they do?

RHI Entertainment, Inc. develops, produces and distributes new made-for-television movies, mini-series and other television programming worldwide. The Company provides long-form television content, including domestic made-for-television (MFT), movies and mini-series. It also selectively produces new episodic series programming for television. In addition to its development, production and distribution of new content, it owns an library of existing long-form television content, which the Company licenses primarily to broadcast and cable networks worldwide. RHI Entertainment, Inc’s business is comprised of the licensing of new film production and the licensing of existing content from its film library in territories worldwide. Licensing rights in its film library generate contractual accounts receivable. The contractual accounts receivable reflects license agreements it has entered into with third parties for rights to its film content in future periods.

Now, this is an interesting one because a quick glance at the financials reveals nothing that would make someone jump up and say “I’ve been buying at almost 5 and now it is under two, let’s pick up a whole lot more shares”. This is, however just what Klarman did. Klarman is also one of the best investors out there now so paying attention to him makes sense.

It also makes finding out what there is about this he likes worth the time. If you know, please leave it in the comments.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Taleb "Pessimistic" About G20, Geithner Et’ All

Not for nothing but Bloomberg does the best interviews. They actually let a person talk and do not interrupt every ten seconds.

Read a review and buy Taleb’s book “The Black Swan” here.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):