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"9 Predictions for 2009" Mid-Year Update

Here is the original post from 12/26/2008

Note: I try to make these a bit of a stretch but not too far “out there” so as to make following them a bit interesting. 

Here are the predictions:
1- Oil again reaches in excess of $100 a barrel from the $40 it sits at today

update: Oil today sits in excess of $66 after having its best month is a decade….we’ll see on this one..

2- The US dollar nose dives in value another 30%

update: The dollar rallied into March this year but has since given it all back and today sits roughly 4% below Jan. 1 levels.

3- Gold soars past $1100 an ounce and stays there for much of the year

update: Gold has fluctuated between $900 and $1000 an ounce and has made another run at $1000 the past two weeks. While the “most of the year” part seems to have passed, $1100 is very reachable

4- 2009 GDP growth is negative for the year

update: This looks to be as close to “in the bag” as possible after a -5.7% final Q1 number and a Q2 that does not look much better.

5- Steve Jobs leaves Apple for health reasons

update: In January Jobs did take a “leave” for health reasons and now rumors are in June, he retires

6- Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich takes someone in President Obama’s administration down with him…media ignores it..calls the offender “a renegade staffer” and praises the new administration for not knowing what its staffers are doing.

update: Rod was indicted and faces trial. After failing to be allowed to go to Puerto Rico to film a reality series (really!!), he has been quiet. More to come on this

7- Israel takes military action against Iran (see oil and gold predictions)

update: In May President Obama gave Iran “until the end of the year” to alter its stance on the nuclear issue. Israel will not wait that long as the rhetoric out of Iran grows increasingly hostile almost daily.

8- An anti-trust suit is brought against Google

update: Turns out Obama’s new antitrust Chief has previously linked Google to antitrust issues. We’ll see if anything happens before 12/31

9- Dow 6/1 7500, 12/31 8300…

update: On 6/1 the Dow stood at…8500

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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6 replies on “"9 Predictions for 2009" Mid-Year Update”

todd,
regarding your obvious belief that the media favors obama and is liberal.that may or may no be the case but the real question is why?
why do you think they are more progressive?

age old question….

i think they hire like-minded people? have seen anon. WH press presidential polls…over 70% normally vote DEM.

my guess would be if you polled WSJ reporters, you may find the opposite result…just a guess though

read bernie goldberg’s “bias”. a great examination of it from a guy who was on the inside

actually the wsj new department is fairly progressive as well…in contrast of course with the editorial board. i felt that goldberg’s book is less about why but instead of about examples and evidence that there is a bias.

though the wsj is probably less liberal given the business comunity as a whole is considerably more conservative less socially.

agreed on Bernie’s book..thought that what you were asking

i do think it goes to degree also, my liberal might be anothers moderate and vice versa…

BTW, it is liberal… not progressive …

it’s all relative
…the study of politics is in many ways the study of semantics

agreed….

have had conversations with others on it and always say “left or right wing depends on where you stand to begin with”

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