OK, so I am not a fan of the current adminstrations policies, I agree we have spent too much, we do have too much retail and the consumer will retrench for a while. BUT, using terms like “forever” & “never” just cannot be done.
We know we cannot predict more than 6 months into the future economically without any real accuracy (some would say far less than that), so for Davidowitz to say we will “never see the same standard of lining again” is just irrational and irresponsible.
I’ll give him that things are going to change short term as consumers save more (that is a really good thing) but to say what he does is just not honest. He is smart enough to know he cannot predict 10 years from now, why make bombastic statements alluding to his ability to do so?
Howard should know this. In Feb. 2005 he said that the Sears/Kmart brands would “likely no longer exist in 3-6 years”…….so unless Sears folds up shop in the next 18 months, wrong Howard. Based on the last quarter Sears turned in, not likely.
This is not to say Howard doesn’t know his stuff…..it is just that no one can predict years down the road confidently.
If the Great Depression did not alter people’s behavior permanently, this little recession won’t…
I guess is does make for a good interview…
Disclosure (“none” means no position):
One reply on “Davidowitz Goes Off the Deap End”
Well, to a limited extent he might be correct, in the sense that the 1920s was an era of conspicuous consumption, which didn't emerge again until the 1980s. That's 50 years. So maybe the sales of $900 purses might disappear, but to generalize that into The End of the World is just fear mongering.