Take them for what they are, at least we know someone will be at the top of this list in term of accuracy and their opinion then given more weight. More importantly, we’ll know who to ignore…
Davidson Submits:
The Wall Street Journal recently released the Sept 2009 Economic Survey (see below). Going back to the Great Depression, the historical pattern reflected in the chart below appears to hold. Mild recessions have mild recoveries while severe contractions have had sharp recoveries.
Bruce Kasman(JPMorgan Chase), Susan M. Sterne(Economic Analysis) and Brian Wesbury(First Trust) have the most positive forecasts. I have repeatedly referenced Wesbury’s work as having been closest(and the most public) to what we have witnessed since Dec2008. We are on the verge of 3Q09 reports that are expected to produce 3%-4% GDP according to these positive economists. This contrasts with the average of the 53 economists of a 2.3% 3Q09 GDP.
I continue to see a positive news stream of value investors buying assets. Barry Sternlicht with Richard Perry and Richard LeFrak just out bid Related Properties(Steve Ross) and Colony Capital(Tom Barrack) for Corus Bancshares’ distressed assets from the FDIC. To see this many high powered value investors bidding on the same asset indicates that the values are still quite attractive in my experience.
If Wesbury, Kasman and Sterne are correct, then there may be market upside. Lets see what the next 4wks brings and lets also hope no negative geopolitical events occur.
