$$ Rail Traffic Increasing Again…..Surges in Late July

This defies the double dip crowd….rail traffic cannot/does not/will not grow in a doubler dip scenario. The fact it is surging in late July to the highest levels of the year is material. We’ll of course have to watch for follow through but it would seem as though a summer slowdown may have passed and activity is resuming. These results also back what I said in my last post on rail traffic

Journal of Commerce (emphasis mine)..

The lull in rail freight volume growth might have ended last month, as seasonally adjusted U.S. carload traffic in commodities, semi-finished factory products and finished equipment rose after two months of declines.

In June nominal intermodal growth was not enough to match normal seasonal trends and box hauls declined an adjusted 1.1 percent. The Association of American Railroads said July shipments of containers and trailers by major U.S.-owned railroads increased a seasonally adjusted 2.4 percent. That took the adjusted box volume to its highest level since August 2008, the AAR said.

The shift follows two months in which rail traffic confirmed a pause in economic momentum and raised concerns because freight activity should be strengthening during a period of recovery from recession.

Weekly rail freight numbers began to grow again about mid-July. Then, in the final week of July, the trade group said U.S. railroads had their strongest actual carload volume since November 2008, while intermodal traffic was the highest since July 2008.

So after adjusting for seasonal norms, the AAR said July’s U.S. railcar loads rose 3.2 percent, after falling 1.2 percent in June and declining 0.9 percent in May.

The last week of July 2010 (July 2010 is weeks 27-30, so the last week is week 30 ) was the highest volume week for U.S. railroads so far in 2010: carloads were 300,292, the highest since week 47 (in November) of 2008; intermodal volume was 232,895 trailers and containers, the highest since week 29 (in July) of 2008. Combined carload and intermodal volume in week 30 of 2010 was the highest since week 46 (in November) of 2008.