Rail traffic came in at 682k last week, down from 692k the week before. The 4 week average will climb as this week replaced the Labor Day holiday week 624k number.
The dip is nothing to be concerned about. If you look back over the data (and we have discussed this here before) this time of the year is know for its volatility. What we are watching is not the dips, we expect them, but the size of the dips (this omits the end of the year cliff dive traffic always does). We want to see a dip of no more than 10% and for the number to stay above 650k. As long as it does, it is good new. Of course, do not panic if a single week dips below nor get too excited should a single week surge. We want to look at the trends here and the 4 week average to smooth out the weekly variance.
Remember when you look at the date we are comparing the Q3 3% GDP and Q4 5% GDP of 2009 in addition to major inventory restocking. Since I do not expect anywhere near that type of GDP growth this year, I would not expect the strong climb in the date through the end of the year. 2010 has seen a nice steady climb throughout and a gradual increase from here is what ought to be expected given moderate GDP expectations, not the race to the end we saw in 2009. Now, should we see the data begin to run again, then we would need to ratchet up Q4 GDP outlooks (conversely should they fall).
Here is the chart: