Let’s just first say that I don’t watch Cramer’s show. Not only do I not have time, I find my results improve proportionally to the fewer hours a day I watch financial TV. Further, I’m not into bashing the work of others but since this involves a holding of mine, I happen to find some of it peculiar and some subscribers did not buy Exxon in June 2010 because of his earlier opinions, I am pointing it out.
That being said, I was snooping around the net doing more reading on our XOM (recommended at $60 6/20/2010) and I kept coming across Jim and Exxon (do a google search, he must mention it daily). I was struck/mystified by his “short” call in November and his still being bearish only a couple weeks ago. I just did not see why he was and what his reasoning could be. So, I decided to look into what he said and why, maybe I was missing something even though the stock is up 38%.
Watch/read and follow the timeline…….
Now, it should be noted Jim marked a multi year low in the stock with that “short” idea…
On Jan 5th, Jim was still bearish
On 1/24 Cramer said “Exxon’s moment is over”
Then I come across his 2/2 post where he lauds the XTO deals he previously bashed as “a stroke of brilliance”. Hmmm..
Read it very close though. The newfound acceptance of XOM/XTO is done in a “the analysts” 3rd party look. No longer is it “I did’t like it” but “they did not”. One has to wonder if he really ever examined the XTO deal himself or read some analysts reports and simply parroted back their conclusions. For the record, the XTO deal was the main reason we purchased the stock in June
On Feb 2nd? What does he say?
There are a gazillion reasons Exxon Mobil (XOM) should be going up. It’s showing some growth again. It is re-exerting itself as the best, most disciplined integrated oil company. Oil is spiking because of Middle East tension.
But the main reason I like it for the rally is that the analysts actually have cottoned on to the XTO acquisition. Exxon’s management got a boatload of questions about it — in fact it dominated as a topic — and made you feel like it was a stroke of brilliance — not the failed overpay that had been the rap, as XTO is natural gas and natural gas was at its peak when Exxon made the purchase.
This is a very significant change. Part of the newfound love for Exxon is that the company has got some serious growth — maybe not earnings but growth — from this acquisition…..
Later
….I think there is a huge amount to run here. For all of them.
Given the plaudits Exxon is now receiving after what was perceived to be a boneheaded acquisition of XTO not that long ago, I think these all have much, much more to run.
I’m sorry but you can’t go from “short Exxon” to “it has much more room to run” at the drop of a hat. You can’t. If you are doing fundamental research it doesn’t work that way unless it is being bought out. Yeah, yeah, I get the whole “its entertainment” thing but it doesn’t pass them smell test the way this was gone about. A simple, “I was wrong” would have been the way to go…
The worst part about this is that nothing really has changed with Exxon in the last 9 months. There has been no dramatic change at the corporate level and results are what they should be if you had done even a remedial amount of work analyzing the company, it assets and their potential. You cannot make flip stock decisions with accuracy…..just use a coin then, same odds of being correct