As expected, total N. American rail traffic fell last week as the Columbus Day Holiday came upon us (we should see similar numbers this week also as the long weekends tend to effect both weeks they touch). Rail traffic came in a 701k vs 721k the previous week.
Of the carriers, $BNI (BRK.A) and $UNP saw the largest declines while $CSX, $KSU and $NSC came in only slightly down.
The chart:
Big picture? We should see traffic begin to fall as we head through the fall and the larger inventories companies build up for the holiday season are worked off and construction hits a seasonal slow patch. Far from being worried when the data falls, it is the degree of any fall we will keep our eyes on. Expect another steep decline on Thanksgiving before traffic falls off the table the last 4 weeks of the year.
As we hit the new year, we will be looking for numbers to come in above the 630K area we saw in the beginning of 2011.