“Davidson” submits:
Headlines continue to exude pessimism. It matters whether one follows hard-data or follows something derived from market psychology;
“US manufacturing survey shows worst reading in a decade”
Oct 1, 2019 https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/01/us-manufacturing-economy-contracts-to-worst-level-in-a-decade.html
PMI is a survey and follows market sentiment while CAB is hard count of things produced and shipped. Economic activity remains in expansion. Most believe we are entering recession while even some believe we are already in one. This is a period in which market sentiment finds reasons to be pessimistic while economic data remains staunchly positive and in the same expansion trend since 2009.
Another not well known indicator is the Trucking Tonnage Index(TTI) which tracks ‘tonnage shipped’ by carriers comprising ~80% of US for hire trucking. Another hard count of things shipped. TTI hit an all time high in Aug. The slight pull-back simply keeps it on trend since 2009. Both of these hard-data indicators are useful during periods of pessimism.
