“Davidson” submits:
The US Real Mfg GDP as % of GDP reveals the impact from Tax&Reg reductions and more recent tariff initiatives. Mfg witnessed positive growth as a % US GDP under Bush, showed decline under Obama and growing under Trump.
A new round of reg reductions are in the process pulling back some of Dodd Frank. Only time will tell if tariff goals will work as desired and if adjustments to Dodd Frank spur manufacturing. Note that Mfg GDP may have peaked when the yield curve began to invert. The next several quarters should help to sort out whether the Mfg slowing is related to tariffs or yield curve or perhaps some of each. It is still early in the Mfg shift lower to identify the cause from the data.
