“Davidson” submits:
The Fed sets the Fed Funds rate to match T-Bill rates with a small premium. The premium has fallen since Paul Volcker who typically set Fed Funds 1% above T-Bill rates. His only preemptive actions were to quash inflation thinking by consumers with 2 sharp rate increases to force US into back-to-back recessions in the early 1980s. Since then, each Fed Chair set their own premium level with Bernanke settling on 0.2% premium. Powell appears to be using 0.1%.
Using the history of Fed adjustments to Fed Funds rates, current T-Bill rates at 1.5% vs. 1.5%-1.75% range for Fed Funds, one can estimate that the next action by Powell is to lower Fed Funds 0.25% should T-Bill rates fall below 1.35-1.4% range or to raise Fed Funds 0.25% should T-Bill rates rise to 1.85-1.9%.
At the moment, no Fed Funds change should be expected despite many forecasts for another cut.
Markets set rates and the Fed follows!
