I am not nearly as optimistic as “Davidson” is on what is happening out there. However, ValuePlays has always been about finding out what the data is really telling us, not espousing an opinion simply because we are positioned in the portfolio a certain way. On the contrary, we are positioned a certain way because that is how I feel the data is unfolding.
Now, it seems clear Davidson disagrees, and given his track record, not relaying that to readers would be irresponsible and more than a little egotistical (only my opinion are “right”) of me. So, I present both sides of the discussion, and readers can decide.
“Davidson” submits:
Job Openings and Intermodal Rail traffic continue to rise rapidly. Job Opening data is from July, a 1mo lag, but the Intermodal Rail data is the week ending Sept 5th. This provides an directional estimate for the month of Sept of 1,350,000 railcars. The precise level is not as important as the trends of each indicator. Both remain very positive!
https://www.aar.org/news/rail-traffic-for-the-week-ending-september-5-2020/
Total carloads for the week ending September 5 were 222,298 carloads, down 6.9 percent compared with the same week in 2019, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 287,339 containers and trailers, up 24.8 percent compared to 2019.
