“Davidson” submits:
Employment is reported higher with Household Survey reporting a gain of 208,000 and the Establishment report a gain of 379,000. Government employment slipped. The difference between the two different employment measures is that the Household Survey is statistical and captures self-employment while the Establishment report comes from companies filing weekly to Bureau of Labor.
The detail from the Establishment report indicates retail, leisure and hospitality are reopening with a lag to reversal of state lockdown policies. Reopening has not occurred as quickly as one would like, but it is occurring with ~8mil unemployed vs pre-COVID to still return to work. This number of re-employed individuals will prove a substantial positive in coming months.
Vehicle SAAR is likely to suffer as manufacturers cut back on semiconductor orders expecting a longer lockdown than that we experienced and now find they are in shortage to meet demand. That demand is higher than expected should be viewed as a positive even if production slips somewhat the next few months.
Excerpt from Establishment report:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 379,000 in February, and the unemployment rate
was little changed at 6.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
The labor market continued to reflect the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
In February, most of the job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, with smaller
gains in temporary help services, health care and social assistance, retail trade, and
manufacturing. Employment declined in state and local government education, construction,
and mining.”