“Davidson” submits:
Employment reports indicate that the Household Survey gained 736,000 while the Establishment Survey gained 431,000. The Unemployment Rate which is calculated from the Household data fell to 3.6%, 0.2% lower than the prior report. These reports continue to reflect economic expansion. The differences between the two reports suggest continued expansion in self-employment
.
Trailing reports from last month of Job Openings and Quits offers additional insight. Job Openings is a measure of market psychology of businesses anticipating employee demand to fulfill consumer demand. It ebbs and flows dependent on media headlines reflecting positive/negative expectations. The Quits series is a hard count and good at indicating labor demand offering better opportunities to those already employed. It has risen even as Job Openings reflected concern and can be viewed as a measure similar to the Household Survey which counts all employees including the self-employed.
Employment trends remain very positive with the Household data indicating a near full recovery. Markets rise over time on a positive employment trend as do interest rates as investors shift capital favoring equities.
