“Davidson” submits:
Job Openings fell as Quits and Real Retail Sales hold steady but at excessive levels. Job Openings should be viewed as a market psychology indicator of company views of reported tight labor market in competition with government support to stay out of the labor market. It is a number that is likely over-inflated based on perception of availability workers at expense levels during a period still reflecting COVID fears. Job Openings represent a higher number than needed in the vein of casting a wider net posting in multiple venues for the same opening to bring in sufficient labor to meet company needs. Real Retail Sales and Quits are better indicators being hard measures of economic activity. One can see the ebb and flow of Job Openings as tied to market psychology while Real Retail Sales and Quits reflect slower economic activity prior to recessions.
Being at elevated levels due to COVID policies, many indicators can pull back towards prior levels without indicating substantial economic slowing. One needs to be careful making any interpretations using single or only a few indicators do the excess distortions of COVID.
