“Davidson” submits:
Employment increased much more than expectations of 170,000 for the Establishment Survey. The positioning has remained by some institutions for a pending recession which as yet do arrive with expectations of multiple rate cuts and falling rates for 5yr-10yr Treasuries. Employment reports for the last 2yrs have stubbornly refused to accommodate this perspective with the overly-favored Mag7 i.e, top-owned high tech, issues treading water since Dec 2021. The rest of businesses have been almost ignored even as they posted revenue growth and profitability well beyond expectations.
The Self-Employed continue to diminish by being absorbed into the Establishment group of companies that make up this series. Net/net employment continues to expand confirming an expansionary economy despite bouts of record pessimism and historic bets made against higher equity prices through various strategies.
Note that this report and most reports from Dec 2021 to date have not favored the Momentum Investor favorites, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Google, Tesla and etc. yet these issues have remained excessively priced with the belief oft spoken in the media as the only issues one should own. At some point I expect to see these issues falling out of favor as their earnings disappoint expectations for high growth and companies core to economic activity emerge as investor-favored issues.
Excerpt from today’s report:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 353,000 in January, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, and social assistance. Employment declined in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industry.
Effective with data for January 2024, updated population estimates were incorporated into the household survey. Population estimates for the household survey are developed by the U.S. Census Bureau. Each year, the Census Bureau updates the estimates to reflectnew information and assumptions about the growth of the population since the population base year, typically the last decennial census. The change in population reflected in the new estimates results from adjustments for net international migration, updated vital statistics, and improvements in estimation methodology.”