At a current index value of 96, U.S. staffing employment is 39% higher than the level reported for the first week of the current year and is 26% higher than the same weekly period in 2009.
If we look at the history, we see this is the time of year for the index to get choppy to flat before its end of the year swoon. Doing so again is not bad news but what what one would expect. Like rail traffic, the important measure going forward for the rest of the year is not “does it decline”, we expect it to. What we want to watch is “how far does it decline” and then what does the subsequent recovery look like. As it continues to hold at two year high levels, one has to expect non-farm payrolls to continue their improvement also.
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