HWOL Indicates Acceleration In Employment

The latest Help Wanted Online data is out and it would seem employers are ramping up their hiring plans. You’ll note the strong correlation between the index and hiring trends. The index paused in the spring on ’11 after a big run from late ’10 and then went stagnant through the summer of ’11.

 

Now if we look at a chart of the 4 week moving average of initial jobless claims, we see it is essentially the invese of the HWOL reading:

 

 

The HWOL Index leads the direction of claims by a few months. While the initial claims series is very volatile, the relationship is over time is rather clear. So, based on what we are seeing with the acceleration in HWOL ads, we can extrapolate from that another round of hiring is coming that will further boost the recovery