Category: Articles

UPGRADES
St. Jude Medical (STJ)= Stanford Research Hold » Buy
Endo Pharm (END)=P Pacific Growth Equities Neutral » Buy
Informatica (INFA)= Pacific Growth Equities Neutral » Buy
Netflix (NFLX)= Utendahl Under-weight » Equal-weight
Quintana Maritime (QMAR)= Ferris Baker Watts Neutral » Buy
F5 Networks (FFIV)= Ferris Baker Watts Neutral » Buy
ITT Educational (ESI)= Barrington Research Mkt Perform » Outperform
Varian Medical (VAR)= Leerink Swann Mkt Perform » Outperform
Entercom ETM (SMH)= Capital Sell » Neutral
QLT Inc (QLTI)= Caris & Company Average » Above Average
NVE Corp ( NVEC)= Northland Securities Market Perform » Outperform
Intl Paper (IP )= Soleil Hold » Buy
NDS Group (NNDS)= RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Top Pick
Range Resources (RRC)= BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
EOG Resources (EOG)= Citigroup Hold » Buy
Thornburg Mortg (TMA)= Citigroup Sell » Hold
Microchip (MCHP)= Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
Intersil (ISIL)= Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
General Dynamics (GD)= Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Manhattan Assoc (MANH)= Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Cephalon (CEPH)= Soleil Hold » Buy
StatoilHydro (STO)= Citigroup Hold » Buy
Western Digital (WDC)= Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
McAfee (MFE0= Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
Human Genome (HGSI)= Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
Sonus Networks (SONS)= Cantor Fitzgerald Hold » Buy
BioMed Realty (BMR)= Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Packaging Corp (PKG)= Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Repsol SA (REP)= Deutsche Securities Sell » Hold
AmSurg (AMSG)= Lehman Brothers Underweight » Equal-weight
Healthsouth (HLS)= Lehman Brothers Underweight » Overweight
Anglo American (AAUK)= Citigroup Hold » Buy
McAfee (MFE)= Citigroup Hold » Buy
Lifepoint Hospitals (LPNT)= Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
Tenet Healthcare (THC)= Lehman Brothers Underweight » Equal-weight
Novacea (NOVC)= Broadpoint Capital Neutral » Buy
Stryker (SYK)= Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Human Genome (HGSI)= Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Garmin (GRMN)= Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform
Ametek (AME)= Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
NVE Corp (NVEC)= Broadpoint Capital Neutral » Buy
Gilead Sciences (GILD)= Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
F5 Networks (FFIV)= Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform

DOWNGRADES
Yamana Gold (AUY)= UBS Buy » Neutral
Google (GOOG)= Stanford Research Buy » Hold
THQ Inc (THQI)= Kaufman Bros Buy » Hold
Legg Mason (LM)= Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform
Hospitality Props (HPT)= Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Hersha Hospitality Trust (HT)= Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Strategic Hotels & Resorts (BEE)= Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Apollo Investment (AINV)= Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
DuPont (DD)= Oppenheimer Perform » Underperform
Royal Philips Electronics (PHG)= Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform
Vertex Pharm (VRTX)= Citigroup Buy » Hold
eBay (EBAY)= Citigroup Buy » Hold
Omnicare (OCR)= Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Underweight
THQ Inc (THQI)= Broadpoint Capital Neutral » Sell
Motorola (MOT) Charter Equity Mkt Perform » Mkt Underperform

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In a filing after the close on Thursday, Leucadia (LUK) purchased 10,000 more options on AmeriCredit (ACF).

Leucadia now holds 32,500 contracts for 3.5 million shares. The options are exercisable at $9 a share and expire 3/14/2008

AmeriCredit closed at $12.76 on Thursday.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Friday’s Picks
Tim Seymour likes refiners such as Tesoro (TSO) $39.81

Guy Adami prefers Cisco Systems (CSCO) $25.11

Karen Finerman says get long Goldman Sachs (GS) $199.20

Pete Najarian thinks ConocoPhillips (COP) $74.47

Thursday’s Results
Jeff Macke recommends buying the Financial Select SPDR (XLF) $27.9 Close $27.91 GAIN

Guy Adami prefers Apple (AAPL) $139.07 Close $135.60 LOSS

Karen Finerman suggests shorting Simon Properties (SPG) $90.19 Close $ 87.80 GAIN

Pete Najarian likes YRC Worldwide (YRCW) $18.72 Close $18.00 LOSS

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 0-1
Jon Najarian= 3-1
Jeff Macke= 6-3
Tim Seymore= 2-1
Guy Adami= 4-6
Pete Najarian= 3-4
Karen Finerman= 5-3

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%
Karen Finerman= 40-30 = 57%

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In a recent filing moments ago, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) added shares of Burlington Northern (BNI)

Berkshire bought 10,300 shares through its National Indemnity subsidiary on 1/22 at $75.51, bringing the total number of shares held to 63,785,418

Disclosure (“none” means no position): None

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I have yet to get a good answer on this…

Can anyone tell me how Kuwait investing $10 billion in either Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), Merrill Lynch (MER) or Morgan Stanley (MS) and owning in most cases less than 5% of the institution would enable them to enact any more “negative undue influence” than say China holding trillions of dollars of US treasuries gives them the ability to stonewall our goverment on trade, human rights, piracy etc….?

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this is really fun, this means these loans are working for these folks..

From KIVA:
“The business you have loaned to, run by Yusif Musayev, has made a
repayment of $86.00. The total amount repaid is now $86.00. This
repayment will be divided amongst all the lenders who helped to fund
this business, depending upon the percentage each lender contributed.”

View Yusif’s business here:

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(FIGI )Fortress Intl Group Inc
(DUF ) Duff & Phelps Corp New
(DLX ) Deluxe Corporation
(BLD ) Baldwin Technology Co …
(ATE ) Advantest Corp
(ALO ) ALPHARMA Inc
(RJF ) Raymond James Financi …
(PLNR) Planar Systems Inc
(PEBK ) Peoples Bancorp N C Inc
(MXC ) Mexco Energy Corp
(MTSC ) MTS Systems Corporation
(MRCY ) Mercury Computer Sys

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Financials, Blackrock, Retail, iPhone

– Eric makes a good case for financials..

– Sometimes boring is just better..

– James Cullen makes the case for retail stocks (some of them)

– May be just a rumor, or may be the reason for the disappointing projections

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After reading Bank of America’s (BAC) and now Wachovia’s (WB) earnings call transcripts my optimism for this year for financials is stronger than ever..

Investors have focused on mortgage write-downs. On the call, CEO Thompson address that:
“Golden West acquisition, we looked at the Golden West experience of the early 1990s. At that time, California had 10% unemployment and 20% house price depreciation, and charge-offs peaked in 1994 at 20 basis points. Based on our portfolio today, that 20-basis point peak would translate to about $250 million in charge-offs. Our expectations for the this year are that charge-offs will exceed that historical peak. But even if charge-offs reach three or four times that peak, our Pick-a-Pay portfolio will generate very meaningful bottom-line profits in 2008. And I do not believe that investors grasp that fact today.”

Wachovia’s second lien home equity portfolio of $32 billion has a delinquency rate that is one quarter as high as the industry and currently has a higher Tier 1 capital ratio at the end of the year than it did at September 30th. The balance sheet should be further enhanced as A.G. Edwards FDIC sweep deposits will also be coming onto their balance sheet over the first three quarters of the year.

They have $4.178 billion of the super senior ABS CDO exposures, hedged with financial guarantees, of which $2.2 billion is hedged with mono-lines and $2 billion with AA-rated financial companies with market caps in excess of $80 billion each.

The Dividend (currently an 8% yield):
Again Thompson “Will Wachovia cut its dividend? And the answer to that question is we have no plans to cut the dividend, because we don’t need to cut the dividend. We are confident in our ability to meet our 2008 business plan and that plan, as we have said before, will generate cash earnings that will cover our dividend payments, continue to build necessary credit reserves, improve our capital ratios and support growth in our business lines.”

Housing:
Don Truslow – Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer
“I hate to forecast just giving what’s happening in the housing markets, but I mean I would not be surprised to see the same sort of pace that we have had in the last couple of quarters, for the next couple of quarters.”

Earnings:
Wachovia is expecting to earn “in excess” of a dollar per share each quarter for about $4.12 a share total in 2008. The economic expectations they use for that prediction? “Overall, we are thinking it’s going to be environment that has GDP growth of somewhere around 2%. We would expect it to be an environment with lower short-term rates and a steepening yield curve and that should be an environment, where can expect good net interest income growth driven by deposit loan growth, wider spreads and the dilution we have taken with the balance sheet.”

Conservative..

Wachovia will hit the $4 a share in earnings and when the banks trade around the 12 to 14 times earnings they traditionally do, that equates to a price of $48 to $52 share or 40% to 50% higher than now. Oh yea.. buying today also gives you and 8% yield on your invested funds. Real nice..

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long Wachovia, None

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Wal-Mart (WMT), may expand into Russia in the next two years in order to capitalize on a swelling economy and a stunning lack of competitors said UBS AG (UBS) analysts last week.

The bank said, “Open markets and independent grocers generate most Russian retail sales, according to UBS. The country’s $145 billion food- retailing industry accounts for almost half of total spending and will expand on average by 17 percent annually through 2010 as rising incomes boost demand for better food”.

The country is in its 10th consecutive year of expansion grew 7.6% in 2007, the Economy Ministry said in December, beating a prior forecast of a 6.7% pace. Auto sales in the country may rise 13% this year and surpass deliveries in the U.K.

Because the five largest chains control just 7.4% of sales, compared with 35% in the U.S. and as much as 80 percent in Europe, UBS said the country is “ripe for consolidation”.

Wal-Mart will most likely use the JV format it has used in India or enter through acquisitions like it did in Japan. Like China, Russia present a host of difficulties in its bureaucracy, but also offer a stunning opportunity. When one looks at the near 20% annual sales growth of Wal-Mart’s international operations, the thought that the rapidly growing Russian market could become part of that has to make shareholders excited.

I have long pushed the need for increased spending on international operation at the expense of domestic ones as the opportunities Wal-Mart has abroad dwarf those at home.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Wal-Mart

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UPGRADES
Amcol (ACO)= Wedbush Morgan Hold » Buy
Vistaprint (VPRT)= AmTech Research Sell » Neutral
MeadWestvaco (MWV)= Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)= Stanford Research Hold » Buy
Cache (CACH)= Sterne Agee Hold » Buy
Ariba (ARBA)= JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Cedar Shopping Centers (CDR)= BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
BJ Services (BJS)= JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
DIRECTV (DTV)= Kaufman Bros Hold » Buy
Apple (AAPL)= Needham & Co Buy » Strong Buy
DuPont (DD)= BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Entergy (ETR)= Citigroup Hold » Buy
AK Steel (AKS)= Soleil Sell » Hold
LDK Solar (LDK)= Lazard Capital Sell » Hold
Lincoln National (LNC)= Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
FirstEnergy (FE)= Citigroup Hold » Buy
American Electric (AEP)= Citigroup Hold » Buy
Westar Energy (WR)= Citigroup Hold » Buy
PNM Resources (PNM)= Citigroup Hold » Buy
FPL Group (FPL)= Citigroup Hold » Buy
Exelon (EXC)= Citigroup Hold » Buy
DTE Energy (DTE)= Citigroup Hold » Buy
Edison (EIX)= Citigroup Hold » Buy
Alliant Tech (ATK)= Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Plum Creek (PCL)= Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
TreeHouse Foods (THS)= JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Veolia Environnement (VE)= Brean Murray Hold » Buy
Heartland Express (HTLD)= Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
SAFECO (SAF)= UBS Sell » Neutral
Teekay Shipping (TK)= Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Woodward Governor (WGOV)= Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Novo-Nordisk A/S (NV)O=Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
Choice Hotels (CHH)= Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
DISH Network (DISH)= Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
PetroChina (PTR)= Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
Union Pacific (UNP)= Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
Canadian Natl Rail (CNI)= Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
Burl Nrth Santa Fe (BNI)= Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
Canadian Solar (CSIQ)= Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
Molson Coors Brewing (TAP)= Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
Suntech Power (STP)= Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
L-3 Comms (LLL)= Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Northrop Grumman (NOC)= Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform $80 » $84
Kindred Healthcare (KND)= Friedman Billings Underperform » Mkt Perform
Canadian Natrl Res (CNQ)= Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)= Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
A/S Dam TORM (TRMD)= Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy $43
Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd (VLCCF)= Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
General Maritime (GMR)= Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
ExlService (EXLS)= Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
WNS (WNS)= Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
DuPont (DD)= Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Anglo American (AAUK)= Citigroup Hold » Buy
Wipro (WIT)= JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
National Fuel Gas (NFG)= Citigroup Sell » Hold
Repsol SA (REP)= Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight

DOWNGRADES
Peoples Bank (NC) (PEBK)= BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Smith & Wesson (SWHC)= Wedbush Morgan Strong Buy » Buy
Qimonda (QI)= AmTech Research Buy » Neutral
Temple-Inland (TIN)= Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight
Northstar Neuroscience (NSTR)= RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Underperform
McMoRan Expl (MMR)= Stanford Research Buy » Hold
Apple (AAPL)= Caris & Company Buy » Above Average
Mentor Graphics (MENT)= JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Corel (CREL)= JP Morgan Overweight » Underweight
Cadence Design (CDNS)= JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Principal Fincl (PFG)= Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform
AmericanWest Banc (AWBC)= Sandler O’Neill Hold » Sell
PETsMART (PETM)= Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Texas Instruments (TXN)= Citigroup Buy » Hold
LoJack (LOJN)= Morgan Joseph Buy » Hold
Chemtura (CEM)= KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Triad Guaranty (TGIC)= Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Glimcher Realty (GRT)= RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
First Cash (FCFS)= JMP Securities Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform
First Cash (FCFS)= Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Plantronics (PLT)= Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Millipore (MIL)= UBS Buy » Neutral
Peabody Energy (BTU)= Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Foundation Coal (FCL)= Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Arch Coal (ACI)= Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral

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Thursday’s Picks
Jeff Macke recommends buying the Financial Select SPDR (XLF) $27.9

Guy Adami prefers Apple (AAPL) $139.07

Karen Finerman suggests shorting Simon Properties (SPG) $90.19

Pete Najarian likes YRC Worldwide (YRCW) $18.72

Wednesday’s Results
Jeff Macke recommends getting long the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) $26.05 with a stop out at 25. Close $27.90 GAIN

Guy Adami prefers Wachovia (WB) $31.91 Close $35.82 GAIN

Karen Finerman thinks investors should take a look at Macy’s (M) $24.30 Close $25.41 GAIN

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 0-1
Jon Najarian= 3-1
Jeff Macke= 5-3
Tim Seymore= 2-1
Guy Adami= 4-5
Pete Najarian= 3-3
Karen Finerman= 4-3

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%
Karen Finerman= 40-30 = 57%

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(ZBRA) Zebra Technologies Co … =$27.80
(YHOO) Yahoo! Inc =$18.98
(VNR ) Vanguard Natural Reso …=$ 13.69
(VLO ) Valero Energy Corp New =$49.86
(TLF ) Tandy Leather Factory Inc =$2.52
(TKR ) The Timken Company =$26.34
(TINY ) Harris & Harris Group Inc=$ 6.55
(SUG ) Southern Union Company =$25.84
(STO ) Statoilhydro Asa =$24.04
(STKL ) Sunopta Inc =$8.64
(ROK) Rockwell Internationa …=$ 53.07
(ROG) Rogers Corporation =$31.29
(RIV ) Riviera Holdings Corp …=$ 17.96
(RHT ) Red Hat Inc =$17.09
(RFMD) Rf Microdevices Inc=$ 2.89
(REP ) Repsol, S.A. =$28.30
(MPR ) Met-Pro Corporation=$ 9.80
(MOT ) Motorola, Inc =$9.56
(GSK ) GlaxoSmithKline plc=$ 47.33
(GRB) Gerber Scientific, Inc =$8.51
(GIFI) Gulf Island Fabricati … =$25.40
(DELL) Dell Inc =$18.95
(DBD ) Diebold, Incorporated=$ 23.55
(CIEN ) Ciena Corp =$21.83
(CENX ) Century Aluminum Company=$ 39.69
(CEM ) Chemtura Corp =$5.79
(AMGN) Amgen Inc =$44.45
(ALY ) Allis Chalmers Energy Inc=$ 11.21
(ALXA) Alexza Pharmaceutical … =$6.71
(ALU ) Alcatel-Lucent =$5.61

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Bloggers & MSM, Recession?, Bears, 33 things

– Interesting, speaking from experience, I think the number is actually higher.

– Chad Brand makes a great point about the current hysteria.

– Let them pile on, based on history, the more folks that pile into a thesis, the sooner the reverse happens

– This is pretty good

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