Blogging Tips, Selling Organs, More Senate Incompetence, Kids and Money
– Here are ten blogging tips from the original blogger.
– If we need organs so bad, why not let people sell them upon their death. Why do they have to be donated? It would be a sure way to get more in circulation.
– OK, If we are in the current housing crisis due to loose lending standards, how in the hell will “loosening” them more help?
– One of the most important things a parent can do is teach their kids about money. This is a must read.
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Limited blogging today due to Sprint's netwok being down ün the area
Wonderful
Todd
—
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Todd Sullivan
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“If any mischief follow, then thou shalt give life for life, eye for eye, tooth for tooth, hand for hand, foot for foot, burning for burning, wound for wound, stripe for stripe.” Exodus 21:23,24,25
Citigroup (C) on Monday enacted its own revenge on the industry that has downgraded, maligned and otherwise dismissed it the past three months.
Cutting a swath through the sector Citi:
*Downgraded three stocks to “Sell” from “Hold” — Comerica (CMA), M&T Bank (MTB) and US Bancorp (USB).
*Cut price targets on Dallas-based Comerica to $35 from $53, M&T’s to $78 from $113 and US Bancorp to $29 from $35.
*Reduced ratings to “Hold” from “Buy” on Bank of America (BAC), JPMorgan (JPM), Wachovia (WB), Wells Fargo (WFC), PNC Financial (PNC) and First Horizon National (FHN).
* Lowered price targets on Bank of America, to $42 from $58, JPMorgan’s to $46 from $57, Wachovia to $39 from $50, PNC to $65 from $80, Wells Fargo’s to $31 from $33, First Horizon’s to $20 from $29, Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) to $25 from $33. Keycorp (KEY) to $23 from $34, Suntrust Banks (STI)to $63 from $78 and finally National City (NCC) to $15 from $25.
As a matter of fact, Citi hit virtually every major bank except, well, Citi.
The banks play this game with each other and for that reason, anytime the upgrade or downgrade each other it needs to be looked at very skeptically.
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Mr. Price talks to Bloomberg about his largest investment, Sears Holdings (SHLD)
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UPGRADES
GSI Commerce GSIC Needham & Co Hold » Buy
Euronet EEFT Citigroup Sell » Hold
ADTRAN ADTN Brean Murray Hold » Buy
Teekay LNG Partners TGP Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
AMBAC Fincl ABK Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Delek US Holdings DK Citigroup Hold » Buy
Kroger KR Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Tesoro TSO Citigroup Hold » Buy
American Eagle AEO Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
MDU Resources MDU Citigroup Hold » Buy
Apria Healthcare AHG UBS Sell » Neutral
Orbitz OWW Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
DOWNGRADES
UnionBanCal UB BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Underperform
Symantec SYMC Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
US Bancorp USB Citigroup Hold » Sell
M&T Bank MTB Citigroup Hold » Sell
Comerica CMA Citigroup Hold » Sell
Wells Fargo WFC Citigroup Buy » Hold
Wachovia WB Citigroup Buy » Hold
PNC Bank PNC Citigroup Buy » Hold
JP Morgan Chase JPM Citigroup Buy » Hold
First Horizon FHN Citigroup Buy » Hold
Bank of America BAC Citigroup Buy » Hold
Westpac Banking Corp. WBK JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
ArthroCare ARTC Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
UBS AG UBS CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Underperform
Radian Group RDN Citigroup Hold » Sell
Capital One COF Citigroup Hold » Sell
Countrywide CFC Citigroup Buy » Hold
MGIC Investment MTG Citigroup Buy » Hold
Rexam PLC REXMY Citigroup Buy » Hold
priceline.com PCLN Citigroup Buy » Hold
Retail Ventures RVI Johnson Rice Overweight » Equal Weight
Starbucks SBUX RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
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Tuesday’s Picks
Guy Adami prefers Holly Corp (HOC) as a refiner play.Open $50.20
Karen Finerman likes kidney dialysis provider DaVita (DVA). Open $55.72
Pete Najarian thinks ASML Holdings (ASML) is a short. Open $33.05
Monday’s Results
Guy Adami and Pete Najarian recommended Biogen (BIIB).Open $58.79 Close $55.72 LOSS
Karen Finerman preferred Altria (MO).Open $76.82 Close $76.02 LOSS
Guy Adami= 54-44 = 56%
John Najarian= 13-4 = 76%
Jeff Macke= 58-39 = 62%
Pete Najarian= 44-40 = 53%
Tim Seymore= 6-7 = 57%
Karen Finerman= 36-30 = 54%
Stacey Briere-Gilbert= 3-0 = 100
Ned Riley= 1-0 = 100%
Carter Worth= 0-1 = 0%
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WTW Weight Watchers Intl … 44.99
WISPR Wisconsin Pwr & Lt Co 81.00
WIND Wind River Systems Inc 8.58
WIBC Wilshire Bancorp Inc 8.59
WEN Wendy’s International … 26.71
SBUX Starbucks Corp 20.53
S Sprint Nextel Corporation 14.10
OMX Officemax 22.43
MTB M & T Bk Corp 81.89
HD Home Depot, Inc 26.25
F Ford Motor Company 6.81
DWA Dreamworks Animation … 22.99
DSW Dsw Inc 17.85
CBOU Caribou Coffee Inc 3.76
AMGN Amgen Inc 47.02
AMD Advanced Micro Device … 8.08
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Here are the results from Hitwise through 12/8.
1. www.walmart.com (WMT) = 8.32%
2. www.target.com (TGT) = 5.47%
3. www.sears.com / www.kmart.com (SHLD)= 3.81%
4. www.bestbuy.com (BBY) = 3.36%
5. www.jcpenney.com (JCP) = 2.59%
6. www.circuitcity.com (CC) = 2.54%
7. www.toysrus.com (private) = 2.47%
8. www.kohls.com (KSS) = 1.32%
9. www.macys.com (M) = 1.3%
The top three remain the same, Wal-Mart, Target and the Sears / Kmart combination. What is interesting is Sears passing Best Buy for the first time and closing the gap on Target. Perhaps this coincides with the new “Wish Book” TV marketing campaign taking hold or its sponsorship of the NFL channel which has the Sears logo plastered on everything.
Either way, they are the only one of the top 4 who actually increased their percentage of clicks over last week’s numbers.
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Bankruptcy, Pregnant weebles, Doctors, Options
– Congress just keeps trying to make “fucking up” the way to go.
– I always wondered how come pregnant women did not fall more. They are weebles (wobble but do not fall)
– Now that I think about it, Dr.’s never used to ask me these questions either..
– Here is an option primer courtesy of Adam Warner.
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This is a great use of cash for Harley (HOG) as they announced a 20 million share repurchase plan Monday morning.
With $1.7 billion in cash on the books, Harley can easily complete the repurchase without any additional debt. since the already increased the dividend 20% in September, shareholder are getting rewarded at both ends.
I have wrote about my desire to own Harley shares in the past, the only thing holding me back was the price of shares.
Currently trading at $44 and yielding 2.5%, Harley is becoming very enticing with this news….
Just wait a little longer, we may get this around $40.
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The more I sit an think about Sears Holdings and Herb Greenberg’s naming Eddie Lampert “worst CEO” for 2007 (he is not Sears’s CEO for those of you who do not know) I though I would take a look at it’s competitions situation. The reason is simple. If we are headed for a slowdown, which company is in the best financial shape to whether the storm?
Looking at three basic elements:
1- Cash
2- Cash per share
3- Debt to Equity
The results are all as of the latest quarters results and we will compare Sears to 4 rivals: JC Penny, Kohl’s, Macy’s and Home Depot.
The results will surprise non-Sears followers.
Cash:
Sears Holdings (SHLD)= $1.5 billion
Home Depot (HD)= $550 million
Kohl’s (KSS)= $295 million
Macy’s (M)= $275 million
JC Penny (JCP)= $150 million
Well, Sears has $400 million more dollars sitting in the bank that it’s rivals combined! Now we need to see how much of that cash is there on a per-share basis. After all, we are buying an interest in the company by the share so we need to know how much of that cash is ours per share we purchase.
Cash Per share Outstanding:
Sears Holdings= $10.71
JC Penny= $7.48
Kohl’s= $1.22
Macy’s= $ .63
Home Depot= $.32
Now, cash is great but if it is offset by huge debt, its benefit to the company is minimized.
Debt to Equity (lower is better):
Sears Holdings= 25%
Kohl’s= 35%
Home Depot= 71%
JC Penny= 78%
Macy’s= 96%
Now, let’s look at a chart for the past year for all three retailers. Almost identical, reflecting a negative retail environment.
What you typically see in environments like this is businesses in a stressed sector will begin to to struggle. They may look for cash investments like Citigroup (C) did recently in the financial sector or their existence will come into doubt as was the case with both Kmart and Sears when Lampert bought them.
When that happens, the winner is always the company is the strongest financial position that can pick up a business at a dirt cheap price, wait for the environment to turn around and then reap the benefits. In this case that retailer is Sears. Warren Bufffet’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) has been doing business this way for decades, making shareholders millionaires many times over. Simply put, Lampert has taken two essentially bankrupt retailers and turned them into the retailer with a pristine balance sheet.
When you consider that Sears has 25% of its share sold short, when retailers turn around and profits begin increasing again, shares will explode to the upside.
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Is anyone really surprised Goldman Sachs (GS) was right on this? We have only been talking about it here since October.
The Wall St. Journal reported Friday “The group’s big bet that securities backed by risky home loans would fall in value generated nearly $4 billion of profits during the year ended Nov. 30, according to people familiar with the firm’s finances. Those gains erased $1.5 billion to $2 billion of mortgage-related losses elsewhere in the firm. On Tuesday, despite a terrible November and some of the worst market conditions in decades, analysts expect Goldman to report record net annual income of more than $11 billion.”
While the other banks and brokerages like Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), Lehman (LEH), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bear Sterns (BSC) all bet one way, Goldman went the other.
The report goes on to question the “morality” of one segment of Goldman packaging these products while another was betting against them. Now, had Goldman’s bet gone terribly wrong for the bank, would we be having this conversation? If not then lets just forget it because it is just sour grapes by those who did not see what was coming or nifty conspiracy theories by those with not much else to do. Yes I did see Ben Stein’s take on it in the NY Times but let’s be real honest here, Ben has been wrong on this whole mortgage mess since day one to such a staggering degree, one must think long and hard before taking to the bank anything he now says on it other than, “oops”.
One cannot blame Goldman for playing the game all of them play the best. They are within the rules, if you do not like the rules, change them but until you do, too bad.
Goldman reports earnings on Tuesday and current estimates are in the neighborhood of $6.61 a share, essentially flat from last years $6.59. What this means is that people have no idea what Goldman is going to earn. When you throw the fact that two of the last three quarters Goldman has beaten the estimates by about 40%, one should take the estimates at a floor, rather than the actual number.
Look for revenues coming in around $11 billion, up from $9.4 last year and earnings approaching $8 a share. Perhaps then we can get this sucker back to where the stock should be, $250 a share and rising?
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UPGRADES
Telus TU Canaccord Adams Hold » Buy
Penn Virginia PVA RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Top Pick
Syniverse Holdings SVR Wedbush Morgan Buy » Strong Buy
Enersis S.A. ENI UBS Neutral » Buy
Empresa Ncnl Elec EOC UBS Neutral » Buy
Walt Disney DIS UBS Neutral » Buy
Cintas CTAS Barrington Research Mkt Perform » Outperform
Universal Truckload Services UACL Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Canadian Natl Rail CNI Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Jetblue Airways JBLU Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
Network Equip NWK Brean Murray Hold » Buy
United Online UNTD Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Jack In The Box JBX Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Rigel Pharms RIGL Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
Hecla Mining HL CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Underperform » Sector Perform
Affymetrix AFFX UBS Neutral » Buy
DOWNGRADES
Quebecor World IQW BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Underperform
Aon AOC Wedbush Morgan Buy » Hold
Pennant Investment PNNT Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
MGI Pharma MOGN BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Citigroup C Sandler O’Neill Buy » Hold
Mettler-Toledo MTD Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Hub Group HUBG Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Heartland Express HTLD Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Phase Forward PFWD Brean Murray Buy » Hold
Panera Bread PNRA Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
Exelon EXC Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
GSI Commerce GSIC Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Neurocrine Biosci NBIX Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Underperform
Hollywood Casino HWD RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Frontier Oil FTO Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Devon Energy DVN Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Quicksilver Resrcs KWK Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
EOG Resources EOG Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform
Newfield Expl NFX Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform
Marshall & Ilsley MI Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
U.S. Concrete RMIX Citigroup Hold » Sell
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Monday’s Picks
Guy Adami and Pete Najarian recommended Biogen (BIIB).Open $58.79
Karen Finerman preferred Altria (MO).Open $76.82
Friday’s Results
Jeff Macke likes Corning (GLW). Open $24.70 Close $24.19 LOSS
Guy Adami thinks Biogen (BIIB) is a buy on its recent dip.Open $57.91 Close $58.79 LOSS
For the second day in a row Karen Finerman recommends shorting MBIA (MBI).Open $29.51 Close $27.60 GAIN
Pete Najarian prefers Energy Conversion Devices (ENER).Open $32.45 Close $32.95 GAIN
Guy Adami= 54-43 = 57%
John Najarian= 13-4 = 76%
Jeff Macke= 58-39 = 62%
Pete Najarian= 44-39 = 55%
Tim Seymore= 6-7 = 57%
Karen Finerman= 36-29 = 56%
Stacey Briere-Gilbert= 3-0 = 100
Ned Riley= 1-0 = 100%
Carter Worth= 0-1 = 0%
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