Categories
Articles

The Week’s Top Stories at Value Investing News

Here are this week’s best at VIN.

Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

Friday’s 52 Week Lows


WAG Walgreen Co. 36.87
UXG US Gold Corporation 3.50
NVGN Novogen Limited 6.10
NOBL Noble Intl Ltd 16.10
NOA North Amern Energy Pa … 12.55
SOLD Housevalues Inc 3.42
SMTK Simtek Corp 2.05
IIG Imergent Inc 12.79
IHC Independence Holding … 13.90
BMJ Birks & Mayors Inc 6.15
BIG Big Lots Inc 19.00
ANEU American Cmnty Newspa … 4.00
ACME Acme Communication Inc 3.05

Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

Sears Holdings Eddie Lampert’s Letter To Employees

Sears Holdings (SHLD) Chairman Eddie Lampert issued the following letter to employees yesterday.

To our Associates:

Yesterday, Sears Holdings announced our results for the third quarter of 2007. While we were not pleased with these results, much of the commentary in the media and on Wall Street following the results ignores the strength of our company and the progress that we have made. In fact, over the past several years, we are one of the few retail companies that have actually reduced our overall debt levels, while at the same time investing over $1 billion on capital expenditures, making investments in inventory for our customers, contributing significantly to our pension plans for our past and future retirees and repurchasing over $3 billion of our shares.

As Aylwin said yesterday, we cannot blame our results entirely on the retail and macro-economic environments, and we need to continue our quest to improve. At the same time, it is also the case that many retailers, including Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s (LOW), Macy’s (M), Kohl’s (KSS) and JC Penney (JCP), have suffered from the economic environment of the past year and have had disappointing sales and earnings results. Much of the commentary following their results focused on the difficulties in the housing markets, the overall macro environment, and the highly promotional nature of the retail environment that has existed recently. An analyst for Fitch, the credit rating agency, reacting to JC Penney’s new store openings was cited as praising JC Penney for keeping expenses under control. When other companies manage expenses carefully, it is often characterized as a sign of good management and prudence. In the case of Sears Holdings, meanwhile, expense controls are often cited as a root cause of poor performance.

Sears Holdings sells a large variety of merchandise. Many of our merchandise categories, including home appliances, tools, and lawn and garden equipment are directly related to home improvement, home maintenance and home turnover related activities. As Mike Ullman, CEO of JC Penney, was quoted recently as saying, “It’s hard to sell window coverings to homes that aren’t being built.” JC Penney reported lower income in its most recent quarter compared to last year. Kohl’s Corp. reported that its income for the past quarter was lower as well. The same goes for Home Depot and Lowe’s. All of these companies have spent enormous amounts to open new stores and to remodel existing stores and still ended up with lower earnings. Spending lots of money doesn’t always lead to the results people expect.

In fact, Sears Holdings has made significant investments and taken measured risks, including the increase in our inventory position over the past couple of years. Not all of these risks pan out and, in the case of our inventory investment, the additional inventory has not resulted in improved sales and profitability. Had the economic environment been different, certain actions may have led to different results. We are taking actions to adjust our inventory position so that, by the end of our fiscal year, we expect our inventory levels will be below the levels of the prior year.

Retail is a fickle business. Nevertheless, like any other business, by focusing on the long term, making decisions based on facts and logic, and appreciating that all decisions are based on many possible future scenarios, companies can navigate the ups and downs of the economy and the stock market to create long term value for their shareholders. That is our focus, and our goal, at Sears Holdings. We will take the actions we believe are necessary to drive value over the long term and manage the business closely and opportunistically in the short term.

We thank you for your hard work and are committed to working to deliver better results in the future. Remember, not everybody likes rooting for the underdog. It is up to us to earn their respect by our performance on the retail playing field.

Respectfully,

Edward S. Lampert
Chairman
Sears Holdings

 Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

Friday’s Links

Buffett’s success, Blogsport, Rove, Censorship

– Here is one of the best articles to date about what makes Warren so good at what he does.

Great name Adam.

– If you can’t get ’em legally, just cheat.

– Starbucks apparently has some thin skin

 Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

EPA Ethanol Mandate: A Joke

Why “mandate” refiners use less ethanol they are already using? Shouldn’t a “mandate” require they use more than they already are? Isn’t that the point?

Regulators on Tuesday set the new renewable fuels standard of nearly 4.7% for next year to meet a federal mandate that at least 5.4 billion gallons of ethanol be blended into transportation gasoline in 2008.

The standard for 2007 was slightly more than 4 percent, which amounted to roughly 4.7 billion gallons, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. The volume target increases every year until reaching 7.5 billion gallons in 2012. Why is this a joke? The U.S. currently has 134 operating ethanol plants with a total capacity of 7.2 billion gallons. That means the “mandate” could have been raised another 20% to 30% and current capacity could have easily handled it.

With producers like ADM (ADM) currently undergoing capacity upgrades that will have it producing 1.6 billion gallons itself annually, if congress and the EPA are indeed serious about making a dent in our oil consumption and the strangle hold it has on us, more aggressive target are required. Verasun (VSE) has put expansion on hold chiefly due to uncertainty over Congressional legislation.

The industry is currently subdued after it meteoric rise in early 2006. Unless congress want the inevitable consolidation that will occur, concentrating production in only a few companies, action is required. We are at a crossroads. We have the production available but unless we force refiners like Exxon (XOM), BP (BP) and Chevron (CVX) to use it, they will not as it ultimately threatens them.

Ethanol currently sells for $1.96 a gallon and every car in the US can run on a 10% blend. Currently several states have not yet enacted the 10% blend level and this EPA “mandate” only assures that will not happen anytime soon.

Almost 8 million of autos and trucks can run on the E85 blend. My Suburban can, but I cannot buy the fuel here. Supply it and you can bet I will. I would gladly support an Iowa farmer over a Saudi Shiek and smile while doing it.

Down the road, Konrad Imielinski reports:
“The U.S. House of Representatives could vote on a wide-ranging energy bill next week that would triple the use of ethanol. There is speculation that legislation will require 20.5 billion gallons of ethanol by 2015, with 5.5 billion gallons of that coming from cellulosic ethanol. The bill is also speculated to set short-term targets of 9.5 billion gallons by 2008 and 11.6 billion gallons by 2009. Back in June, the Senate passed a proposal to require 36 billion gallons of ethanol use by 2022. Democrats will also attempt to hit the oil industry with $15 billion in taxes and require utilities to get 15 percent of their electricity from wind, solar and other renewable sources.”

Congress needs to act and the party that takes the lead may just get credit years from now for saving us from oil. Isn’t that enough motivation?

 Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

Ethanol Consolidation Begins

It was just matter of time.

Verasun (VSE) and US Bioenergy (USBE), both trading around 52 week lows, have agreed to merge.

Under the agreement, 0.81 share of VeraSun common stock will be issued for each outstanding share of US BioEnergy common stock, representing a premium of approximately 11% based on 11/23, closing prices. Existing VeraSun shares will remain outstanding and will represent approximately 60% of the shares outstanding after the merger.

VeraSun Chairman, CEO and President Donald L. Endres will remain CEO of the combined company, and US BioEnergy President and CEO Gordon Ommen will serve as chairman following the closing of the merger. VeraSun Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Danny C. Herron will become president of the combined company. The combined entity will retain the VeraSun name and trade under VeraSun’s existing ticker symbol, VSE.

Upon completion, the new company will have nine ethanol production facilities in operation and seven additional facilities under construction. By the end of 2008, the company is expected to have a total production capacity of more than 1.6 billion gallons per year (BGY) and 16 facilities constructed by Fagen, Inc. and utilizing ICM process technology. Through the merger, the employees of both companies will be integrated into a combined work force.

VeraSun will then be the or equal to ADM (ADM) as the largest public ethanol producer in the US. With valuation of producers at record lows, do not expect this to be the last merger or buyout you read about in the coming months. Prime targets are Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) for its west coast monopoly and The Andersons (ANDE) because it is still profitable and has a fertilizer segment that is doing very well.

 Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

Friday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


UPGRADES
MGP Ingredients MGPI Northland Securities Under Perform » Market Perform
InterActive IACI Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
General Maritime GMR Citigroup Sell » Hold
Sigma Designs SIGM RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Natl Oilwell Varco NOV Citigroup Hold » Buy
Patterson Companies PDCO Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
Nalco NLC Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Red Robin Gourmet RRGB CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Outperform
Dollar Tree DLTR Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Range Resources RRC Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
General Motors GM Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
TiVo TIVO JP Morgan Underweight » Overweight
Double Hull Tankers DHT UBS Neutral » Buy
Nuvelo NUVO UBS Neutral » Buy

DOWNGRADES
Rogers Comms RCI BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Men’s Wearhouse MW Caris & Company Above Average » Average
Transocean RIG Sterne Agee Buy » Hold
Rogers Comms RCI Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Sierra Pacific SRP Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
State Auto Fin STFC Piper Jaffray Neutral » Sell
Donegal Group DGICA Piper Jaffray Neutral » Sell
Piper Jaffray PJC Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Tyler Tech TYL Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Rogers Comms RCI CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Outperform » Sector Perform
Aeropostale ARO Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral

 Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

Thursday’s 52 Week Low’s


TSH Teche Holding Company 37.90
TSC Stephan Company , The 3.25
SOLD Housevalues Inc 3.50
SMTK Simtek Corp 2.10
SMSI Smith Micro Software Inc 7.72
SMRT Stein Mart Inc 5.41
SHLD Sears Hldgs Corp 102.13
PBY The Pep Boys-Manny, M … 10.86
PAL North Amern Palladium Ltd 5.40
PAGI Pemco Aviation Inc 3.01
NYT New York Times Company 16.73
NVGN Novogen Limited 6.36
NUTR Nutraceutical Intl Corp 11.34
MW Mens Wearhouse Inc 34.81
MTLK Metalink Ltd 4.90
CTR Cato Corp New 14.63
CRED Credo Petroleum Corpo … 8.45

 Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

Did Lampert Dump Burnett?

Jesus, what did Sears Holdings (SHLD) Eddie Lampert do to CNBC’s Erin Burnett? Did they date when she worked at Goldman Sachs (GS) or did he rebuff her advances? Perhaps she is miffed that she did not get an interview she wanted?

She has been joyously drubbing this quarters performance all day today on CNBC. She does is with this sick little smile on her face too. Odd…

Now, I am not saying this was a good quarter, it sucked. But, Burnett has taking it a bit farther. She spent this morning comparing his Citigroup (C) purchases to that of Saudi Prince Alwaleed’s. Now, it is one thing to compare two investors purchase price but is it really legitimate or the slightest bit honest to compare purchases of a company made 17 years apart? Am I the only one who finds that embarrassingly transparent?

Then she jumps into the “how much time does Lampert have left” doomsday scenario. Okay,,,,,, let’s just forget the 20 year and 28% annual return Lampert has produced for investors. That track record alone places him in a handful of investors. I mean, I am sure anyone who has made a fortune with Lampert is jumping ship now because of a bad year. Let’s also forget the 5 year lockup people give him when they fork over their $10 million minimum to invest with him. Let’s also ignore the fact that folks who have $10 million to give someone for 5 years to invest, did not get that type of money by pissing their pants at every bump in the road.

Sears. Burnett clearly has no grasp of the situation. It is a retail turnaround story. Those take years. Sears is not losing money and still is producing billions for Lampert to repurchase shares. Has Burnett seen the stock price and performance of other comparable retailers like JC Penny (JCP) down 48% from its high and Macy’s (M) down 30% from its high? Apparently not. Check out the one year chart of all three here. Look similar?

What Burnett casually glosses over is that when Lampert took control of both Sears and Kmart, they were careening toward extinction (Kmart actually was bankrupt). Now they produce about $1 billion in cash and every quarter that goes buy, Lampert increases our ownership percentage.

Awful job Eddie…. (please detect the sarcasm)

Erin, get over it “he just not that into you”

 Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

Thursday’s Links

Thank-You, Shopping, Mutual funds, 1,000%

– Here is a great read from Minyanville about children and the Holidays

– Even better than that, how to make Christmas shopping an educational experience.

– If you invest in mutual funds, here is how to do it.

Not a bad year?!?

 Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

Sears Holdings Results

Going to be an ugly day for Lampert and compnay.

Sears (SHLD) today reported net income of $2 million, or $0.01 per diluted share, for
the Q3 ended November 3, 2007, compared with net income of $196 million, or $1.27 per diluted share, for the Q3 ended October 28, 2006. The Q3 2006 results included $101 million in pre-tax gains ($64 million after tax or $0.42 per diluted share) on total return swap investments outstanding during that period.

Excluding these gains, earnings per diluted share were $0.85 for the Q3 of fiscal 2006. The year-over-year decline in income is primarily the result of a $223
million decline in gross margin, reflecting both sales declines, as well as an overall decline in our gross margin rate for the quarter due to discounting.

Operating income for the quarter decreased $230 million to $46 million in 2007, as compared to $276 million in the third quarter of 2006, mainly due to lower gross margin generated at both Kmart and Sears. For the quarter, Sears Holdings generated $3.2 billion in total gross margin as compared to $3.4 billion in the third quarter last year.

Lampert had cash and cash equivalents of $1.5 billion at 11/3 (of which $0.8 billion was domestic and $0.7 billion was at Sears Canada) as compared to $2.1 billion at October 28, 2006. The $1.1 billion net decline in cash for the quarter primarily reflects $0.9 billion used for share repurchases and $0.9 billion used to build inventories for the holiday selling season, partially offset by $0.6 billion of cash generated through short-term borrowings that have been repaid as of 11/27.

Lampert repurchased 6.7 million common shares at a total cost of $0.9 billion (or $131.72 per share) under our share repurchase program during Q3. As of November 27, he had remaining authorization to repurchase $736 million of common shares under the program.

The bright spot was November month-to-date period (Sunday, November 4, 2007
through Tuesday, November 27, 2007) domestic comparable store sales
at Sears increasing 1.9%.

Good? Hell no. Sucks actually. But, did you really expect any better? Sears is going to get hit hard today and that is fine as I will be a buyer when shares drop below $110. Retails stories are long term ones ans Lampert is only in act two. Act one was getting both companies off the bankruptcy express, act two is determining the format which appears to be a brand central one. Act three will be the roll out of this (this will happen over the next year) and then we wait.

The good news is share count is decreasing rapidly, now down to about 137 million so the turnaround earnings will be excellerated for those holding shares.

View release here:

 Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

Ackman Increases Stake in Borders: Why?

I am trying to understand what Bill Ackman sees in Borders (BGP)

According to a filing with the SEC, Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management disclosed an increased 17.1% stake in bookseller Borders Group, up from 12%. Last week management said Q4 earnings, excluding restructuring charges, will exceed last year’s earnings from continuing operations of around $1.48 per share. Now that improvement is only about $1 million dollars, it is not like they knocked it out of the park here. They attributed the difference to both the fear of lead in toys and a strong best-seller lineup.

I noted this “no toy” trend last week in a “Black Friday” post that I observed very few toys being taken to the register at several locations.

Now, in an Oct. 9 SEC filing, Ackman’s Pershing Square said it did not believe its
“activities would effect a change of control” at the book seller. Simply put, Ackman is playing this as a ValuePlay story, not as an activist investor pushing for change at the top.

What to see in Borders? Shares trade at 1/2 their 52 week high and sit at $12 a each and CEO George Jones has ponied up $1.2 million for 100,000 shares in the past two months. After that? I just cannot find much. They sold off their UK operations, big box discounters like Wal-Mart (WMT) and Target (TGT) are crushing margins and online retailers like Amazon (AMZN) and Ebay (EBAY) are taking traffic the thought of a meaningful online business away from them. The only reason I can find to buy shares is in the hope they merge with Barnes and Nobel (BKS) who is actually making money. But, why would BKS want it? Borders does have almost no debt and about $1.10 a share in cash. Taking it over would not hinder the balance sheet at Barnes and Nobel.

It would enable them to sell off duplicate locations and effectively eliminate foot traffic competition. The FTC might have something to say about it but they so far have been unable to stop anyone who wants to merge so it is doubtful they would be able to actually do anything even if they did object.

Now, there must be something else there or Ackman knows something we don’t. The merger of the two have been rumored for about a year now and with both CEO’s buying shares in the company, that assures it is far off. The SEC would be all over both companies were a merger announced anytime soon after insiders were seen buying large amounts of shares on the open market.

Borders is a non-factor in the online game so that cannot be it. FY 2008 ending in Jan. will mark the second consecutive year the retailer has lost money and FY 2009 does not look all that much brighter. Sales for the past three years have been essentially stagnant. Personally, I love to read but book are the last thing I want to go to the store for. My first stop is online and borders.com does not even come to mind. This simply means that the economics of the company do not have a huge impetus to change anytime soon.

The environment they operate in is getting tougher, not easier and that does not bode well for a “turnaround” story. More digging is in order to find out what Ackman is thinking.

 Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

Gazprom and Dow Chemical: Wow

The potential here is just stunning for Dow (DOW).

Russian natural gas monopoly OAO Gazprom and Dow signed a memorandum of understanding that outlines potential cooperation on projects in Russia and Germany. Gazprom said the companies will consider creating a joint venture based on Dow’s new petrochemical facilities in Germany and cooperating in refining gas from Russia’s Yamalo-Nemets autonomous district, and study other possibilities.

CEO Andrew Liveris has long lamented high natural gas prices and the US policy (or lack thereof) has lead to the expedited JV strategy at Dow over the past two years.

Some backround here is now necessary. In late October Gazprom announced an agreement with Statoilhydro.

From the Release:
“The Shtokman gas and condensate field is located in the central part of the Russian sector of the Barents Sea offshore.

Approved by the RF Nature Ministry’s State Commission for Mineral Resources in January 2006, Shtokman’s C1+C2 reserves make up 3.7 tcm of gas and over 31 mln t of gas condensate.

In October 2006, the Gazprom Management Committee decided that pipeline gas deliveries from the Shtokman field to the European market would take priority over LNG shipments. Shtokman was identified as the resource base for Russian gas export to Europe via the Nord Stream Gas pipeline.

Phase 1 stipulates production of 23.7 bcm of natural gas per annum, gas and LNG supplies via the gas pipeline will start in 2013 and 2014, respectively.”

A massive deal, but what to so with it all.

Fast forward To Dow and Gazprom:

The potential JV would give Gazprom access to new petrochemical facilities set up by Dow in Germany. In return Dow would refine gas at Gazprom’s fields in the Yamalo-Nemets region in the north of Russia. Essentially Dow would have the inside track in building the Russian petrochemical industry. This follows similar deals for Dow in both Saudi Arabia and China.

See where this is going?

 Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

Thursday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


UPGRADES
Prospect Energy PSEC Ferris Baker Watts Sell » Neutral
Verigy VRGY Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Overstock.com OSTK Stifel Nicolaus Sell » Hold
Novellus NVLS Stifel Nicolaus Sell » Hold
DuPont DD Soleil Hold » Buy
Cepheid CPHD Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Anheuser-Busch BUD UBS Neutral » Buy
Ceradyne CRDN Morgan Joseph Hold » Buy
Blue Coat BCSI Roth Capital Hold » Buy
Holly HOC Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
ICT Group ICTG Friedman Billings Underperform » Mkt Perform
UBS AG UBS Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
AptarGroup ATR Lehman Brothers Underweight » Equal-weight
AGL Resources ATG UBS Neutral » Buy
Molson Coors Brewing TAP UBS Neutral » Buy
Alpha Natural Resources ANR UBS Neutral » Buy
Potash POT JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Banco Santander SAN Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy

DOWNGRADES
Finlay Enterprises FNLY B. Riley & Co Neutral » Sell
SourceForge LNUX Dougherty & Company Buy » Neutral
Sonic Solutions SNIC Kaufman Bros Buy » Hold
Casual Male CMRG Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Ariad Pharm ARIA JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Astronics Corporation ATRO Boenning & Scattergood Market Outperform » Market Perform
New York Times NYT Banc of America Sec Neutral » Sell
Advanta Corp ADVNB Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Underperform
Ryanair Hldgs RYAAY Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Air France KLM AKH Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Genlyte GLYT Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral

 Subscribe in a reader

Categories
Articles

"Fast Money" for Thursday


Thursday’s Picks
Tim Seymour recommended Stillwater Mining (SWC). Open $9.81

Guy Adami likes US Steel (X). Open $96.16

Karen Finerman prefers Pzena (PZN) as a value play. Open $12.00

Pete Najarian says Isis (ISIS) is a buy. Open $17.48

Wednesday’s Results

No “First Trade” Picks

Records: Since 6/21/2007

Guy Adami= 46-41 = 52%
John Najarian= 13-4 = 76%
Jeff Macke= 54-35 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 36-36 = 50%
Tim Seymore= 5-5 = 50%
Karen Finerman= 29-22 = 57%
Stacey Briere-Gilbert= 3-0 = 100
Ned Riley= 1-0 = 100%
Carter Worth= 0-1 = 0%

 Subscribe in a reader