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Google Phone Nearing Reality

It would appear that Sprint (S) and Verizon (VZ) are bidding for rights to the upcoming Gphone.

In the next two weeks, Google (GOOG) is expected to announce new software and services that handset makers could use to build customized Google-powered phones. In order to get its mobile devices in front of consumers by the middle of next year the company needs wireless operators to sign on relatively soon.

I have repeatedly said that Google would be more concerned with the reach of their product than the profit per piece and early indications are that may well come to bear. The Wall St. Journal reported Wednesday, “A Google technology partnership might let the carriers offer cheaper phones, because Google’s licensing fees for its software and operating system would likely be less than the industry standard. The phones also would be open to third-party application development, potentially spurring development of new features.”

There is some speculation that Google will “pick a carrier” like Apple (AAPL) did with its iPhone launch and AT&T (T). I doubt it. Google is about reach and openness and turning the operating system over to a sole provider accomplishes neither. Now, that does not mean that the initial announcement will be with one provider but it will not have the 5 year exclusive lockup the iPhone has. To do so would be counter to everything Google has stood for up until this point.

Sprint is the most likely first provider because they are already working with Google on software for devices that will run on its new high-speed WiMAX network. That and the fact that they are desperate for something to jump start consistently declining subscriber growth. They will be the most amenable to anything Google wants.

My guess is Google is attempting to make your cell phone a 100% customizable entity. Good. For too long cell phones have been held hostage by the makers of them and what they decide to let us do with them. Google will break this model.

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Wal-Mart’s Not Playing Games

“Black Friday” is coming a bit earlier that usual this year.

Wal-Mart (WMT) announced today “Wal-Mart will offer black-Friday prices three weeks early when the retailer unveils secret in-store specials: extraordinary prices on five of the most sought after gifts this season. Understanding that more and more consumers are using the internet to comparison shop, Wal-Mart plans to reveal online a round of unbeatable savings on Thursday. The items will be available in stores beginning Friday morning, November 2 as the merchant officially opens special Christmas shops.” Consumers can find out what the deals are on Thursday by going to walmart.com/secret.

The special items are available for purchase only in Wal-Mart stores beginning this Friday. They will also use their Web site to let shoppers check on the local availability of 1,000 electronics items.

Wal-Mart has the jump start on the holiday season on competitors like Target(TGT), JC Penny (JCP) and others. Sales like this require huge inventory investments and there is no way to play catch up once you are behind and Wal-Mart has catapulted itself ahead of the entire retailing industry with this move.

This would seem to be the reasoning behind the upwards earnings revision Wal-Mart gave earlier in the month and Lee Scott’s expressed “excitment” over this Holiday Season, he knew he had the jump on the competition.

Good for shareholders…

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Thursday’s Upgrades and Downgrades

UPGRADES
Hub Group HUBG Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Equinix EQIX Kaufman Bros Hold » Buy
Equinix EQIX CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Outperform
LECG Corp XPRT William Blair Underperform » Mkt Perform
Tenneco TEN Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Novavax NVAX Oppenheimer Neutral » Buy
Energizer ENR Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
Ritchie Bros. RBA RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Franklin Bank Corp FBTX JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Sunpower SPWR RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
McKesson MCK Citigroup Hold » Buy
TAM S.A. TAM Citigroup Hold » Buy
Teva Pharm TEVA Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Post Properties PPS KeyBanc Capital Mkts Underweight » Hold

DOWNGRADES
Lexicon Pharma LXRX RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Maxwell Tech MXWL Needham & Co Buy » Hold
AMEDISYS AMED Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Yamana Gold AUY UBS Buy » Neutral
Pinnacle West PNW JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Pacer Intl PACR KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Blue Coat BCSI Roth Capital Buy » Hold
Estee Lauder EL UBS Neutral » Sell
LCA Vision LCAV Oppenheimer Buy » Neutral
SumTotal SUMT JMP Securities Strong Buy » Mkt Outperform
Maxwell Tech MXWL JMP Securities Mkt Perform » Mkt Underperform
Shutterfly SFLY Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
LodgeNet LNET Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
CF Industries CF Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
GPC Biotech GPCB Deutsche Securities Hold » Sell
Qwest Q JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Beckman Coulter BEC RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
LDK Solar LDK Piper Jaffray Outperform » Market Perform
Vital Images VTAL CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Outperform » Sector Perform
Qwest Q CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Outperform » Sector Perform
Las Vegas Sands LVS Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight
Pacer Intl PACR JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Akamai Tech AKAM Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Bemis BMS Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold

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"Fast Money" for Thursday


Thursday’s Picks

Jeff Macke is a buyer of Microsoft (MSFT). Open $36.81

Guy Adami is liked Intel (INTC). Open $26.90

Pete Najarian liked Apple (AAPL)Open $189.95

Wednesday’s Results

Jeff Macke recommended buying Yahoo! (YHOO). Open $30.83 Close $31.10 GAIN

Guy Adami liked Dell (DELL). Open $29.80 Close $30.60 GAIN

Karen Finerman liked Cadbury Schweppes (CSG). Open $52.55 Close $53.24 GAIN

Pete Najarian preferred Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS). Open $32.80 Close $33.37 GAIN

Since my tracking began on 6/21 (1-1 means one up pick and one down pick and no results from my vacation weeks). The percentage is the percentage of successful picks

Guy Adami= 39-24 = 62%
John Najarian= 13-4 = 76%
Jeff Macke= 44-32 = 56%
Pete Najarian= 30-26 = 53%
Tim Seymore= 4-3 = 57%
Karen Finerman= 23-13 = 62%
Stacey Briere-Gilbert= 3-0 = 100
Ned Riley= 1-0 = 100%
Carter Worth= 0-1 = 0%

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Wednesday’s 52 Week Low’s


TWC Time Warner Cable Inc 28.13
TSCO Tractor Supply Co 41.20
RMIX U S Concrete Inc 4.98
PGC Peapack-Gladstone Fin … 24.72
PFED Park Bancorp Inc 28.00
PACR Pacer Intl Inc Tenn 14.80
PABK PAB Bankshares, Inc 14.91
OLCB Ohio Legacy Corp 7.70
FTD Ftd Group Inc 14.40
FKFS First Keystone Financ … 11.42
FFEX Frozen Food Express I … 5.82
CPSI Computer Programs & S … 24.53
CAPB Capitalsouth Bancorp 11.75
BXC Bluelinx Hldgs Inc 5.18
BTFG Banctrust Financial Gp 13.45

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More Toys Recalled due To Lead Paint

This is getting out of hand.

1- Galaxy Warriors

2- Halloween Plastic Teeth

3- Elite Operations at Toys R’ Us

4- Ribbit Board Games

All told, almost another 1/2 million pieces recalled today. The really scary one is the teeth because people will have them in their mouths.

Do plaintiffs currently suing Sherwin Williams (SHW), NL Industries (NL) and DuPont (DD) wonder why these suits are going nowhere? Every day current and potential jurors read the news and see these recalls and have to wonder why we are going after companies that have not made the stuff in over 1/2 a century. They want to know why these folks (mostly States like Rhode Island and Ohio) are not suing the manufacturers of toys that are today filled with lead paint. Maybe someone from the AG office of either State can get in touch with me and answer this? A lot of people want to know.

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Bernanke & Co Cut 25 Basis Point

The DOW and the S&P reacted enthusiastically to today’s rate cut and statement by Bernake & Co.

The reason? The statement put inflation back on the table and even mentioned energy as an inflationary force. Inflation, not growth was the predominant focus of the statement. Now one has to wonder if at the Dec. 11th meeting there is even a chance of another cut. It is a definite “hawkish” view. The good news? If inflation is under control and the risk to growth vs. inflation is equal, then you have to assume there is very little risk to growth.

The statement is as follows:

“The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 4-1/2 percent.

Economic growth was solid in the third quarter, and strains in financial markets have eased somewhat on balance. However, the pace of economic expansion will likely slow in the near term, partly reflecting the intensification of the housing correction. Today’s action, combined with the policy action taken in September, should help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and promote moderate growth over time.

Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year, but recent increases in energy and commodity prices, among other factors, may put renewed upward pressure on inflation. In this context, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain, and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

The Committee judges that, after this action, the upside risks to inflation roughly balance the downside risks to growth. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner;
Frederic S. Mishkin; William Poole; Eric S. Rosengren; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Thomas M. Hoenig, who preferred no change in the federal funds rate at this meeting.”

The fact is was not even unanimous is ominous for those wanting another cut. One has to think now that with the economy growing at almost 4%, it would take a significant event to get another rate reduction. Going even further, growth seems to be increasing, not decreasing so the need for additional cuts is further diminished. It now seems that the previous cut was simply to provide assistance with the credit issue at the time and now that it seems to have passed, the Fed will sit on the sidelines.

Another thing, why are we even talking about recession possibilities when GDP is growing at 4%?

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Wednesday’s Links

Apple, Lead in Gas, Bloggystyle,

– A very interesting take on Apple as an investment.

– More harmful than lead in paint ever was….sue EXXON!!

– Adam’s weekly contribution.


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The Consumer Paradox

The consumer is telling us two very different things

Results for credit card companies like Mastercard (MA) and American Express (AXP), both of whom saw significant increases in card transaction would lead you to believe the consumer is healthy and strong. \A historically low unemployment rate and a strong job market would push one to be in the “thing are good” camp, correct? The recently released Q3 GDP that saw the US economy grow at the fastest rate in nearly two year would most likely lead you to believe things are just going to get better down the road.

So, if all that is true, then why is consumer confidence falling? Is it that the consumer thinks the good life just cannot continue or that they just do not realize how good thing actually are now? Could it be uncertainty over the elections next year? Is the fact that whenever congress talk about taxes the consumer get nervous? Is everyone worried about the value of their home, even if they are not selling?

I do not know the answer but this is clear, what the consumer says and what the consumer is doing are two very different things. Maybe it is a “never believe polls” thing?

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Is Goldman Sach’s Still Profiting from CDO Debacle?

If you read the Goldman Sachs (GS) filing last month there was an interesting line.

If we put aside the stunning 72% increase in earnings that just blew the door off all the estimates, we need to look at those earning. What did it for Goldman, unlike Citigroup (C), Merrill Lynch (MER), Lehman (LEH), Morgan Stanley (MS), and other was that in June of last year they began shorting these CDO markets that have decimated earnings at the other institutions.

Here is where it gets very interesting. Goldman in their recent filing that “increases were due to unrealized gains in certain positions”. Hmmm. My take is that Goldman is still short the CDO markets and if they are, that means they are still profiting handsomely from it. Consider Merrill just wrote down $8 billion of CDO’s and it looks like another $4 billion is coming next quarter. Fears are now being stoked that other institutions will follow to some extent also. That may be a blessing at other places. If Chuck Prince at Citigroup forces shareholders to swallow another bitter pill after promising “Q4 will be much better” , it will be his last

Goldman also wrote down their portfolio of CDO’s last quarter but the short positions negated any negative effect to earnings. It increasingly is looking like this short position may actually produce a positive in Q4 and with all Goldman’s other business performing well, the recent all-time high the stock hit on Monday may be a distant memory soon enough..

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Marriot’s Holiday Party Rewards Promotion: Anyone In the Loop?

Just when i thought Dell (DELL) took the cake for customer service, Marriott (MAR) steps into the abyss.

You have probably all seen the advertisements for it. Book your Holiday Party at any Marriot and you receive 50,000 rewards points. Great!! Not so fast..

Being Marriot rewards members we call the Marlboro/Westborough Courtyard to inquire about the details (here is where the fun begins). We get transferred to the necessary person who is not is so we get voicemail. The system will not allow us to leave a message so we go back to the operator. “Let’s try it again” she says so back in the loop we go. No luck and back to the operator. After convincing here this probably just is not going to work they connect us to another person who tells us “I can’t help you, you need “x””.

we inform them that “x” is not in and that the voice mail is not working and say “can we get someone else in sales”? Sure and we go another sales person who says “what are you talking about?”

“You guys have been advertising a 50,000 rewards point program for holiday parties for several months now” we reply.

“We are not doing that” she replies

“But it is a national promo!?!” we retort..

“Well, I have not heard about it” she says incredulously.

“But, it has been on TV and in the local papers all fall” we reply..

“Don’t know about it”

“Could you go possibly ask someone else” we say thinking maybe she is just new (she wasn’t).

“Hold on” she says in a huff

After several minutes she returns and says “I talked to my GM who said we are actually doing it and she is going to talk to our sales manager because she/he did not inform us, but I do not have any details to give you.”

“Do you really expect us to book a party with you when no ones knows about the program?” We ask

He we go.. ready????????

“No, I wouldn’t book it with us either if I was you”… Goodbye..

A few hours later we called back and actually spoke to the GM who passed the buck and blamed the sales manager up and down so efficiently that we think she may have a wonderful career in politics ahead of her. This begs the question, what does the “general” in her manager title actually mean if she does not know about a national promotion? She must approve the ads they have been running for months, right? So after this we said, “so can you send us information so we can make a decision?” The reply will stun you….

“Your not still interested in booking the party with us are you?”

Uhhh.. Not anymore..

WOW…. you can’t make this stuff up!! We called to give them business not once but twice and we essentially told to go away. I will look more into this over the next few days and get back next week but this one is real hard to believe.

Dell corporate in the end did the best they could to make an awful situation right. If anyone at Marriott wants to give me a buzz and explain this one, I’d love to hear it.

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Wednesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades

UPGRADES
VASCO Data Security VDSI RBC Capital Mkts Underperform » Sector Perform
Gehl GEHL BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Imax IMAX Soleil Hold » Buy
Coca-Cola FEMSA KOF JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Teekay LNG Partners TGP Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Northgate Minerals NXG CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Underperform » Sector Perform
Actuate ACTU JMP Securities Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform
Schnitzer Steel SCHN DA Davidson Underperform » Neutral
Manpower MAN Citigroup Hold » Buy
Platinum Underwriters PTP Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
US BioEnergy USBE UBS Neutral » Buy
General Motors GM UBS Sell » Buy
FormFactor FORM Citigroup Hold » Buy
Acuity Brands AYI Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Suncor Energy SU Friedman Billings Underperform » Mkt Perform
Petro-Canada PCZ Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Nexen NXY Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform

DOWNGRADES
Portfolio Recovery Assoc. PRAA Kaufman Bros Buy » Hold
ICF International ICFI Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
American Medical AMMD Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Volcom VLCM Caris & Company Above Average » Average
American Medical AMMD Piper Jaffray Outperform » Market Perform
Las Vegas Sands LVS BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Home Inns HMIN Brean Murray Buy » Hold
Covad DVW Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
DJ Orthopedics DJO Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral

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"Fast Money" for Wednesday

Wednesday’s Picks
Jeff Macke recommended buying Yahoo! (YHOO). Open $30.83

Guy Adami liked Dell (DELL). Open $29.80

Karen Finerman liked Cadbury Schweppes (CSG). Open $52.55

Pete Najarian preferred Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS). Open $32.80

Tuesday’s Results

Jeff Macke recommended selling some EMC Corp. (EMC).Open $25.37 Close $25.12 LOSS

Guy Adami thought Gilead (GILD) is a buy. Open $45.96 Close $45.48 LOSS

Karen Finerman preferred Washington Group (WNG). Open $ 95.10 Close $96.49 GAIN

Pete Najarian thought Merrill Lynch (MER) is a buy. Open $67.42 Close $65.66 LOSS

Since my tracking began on 6/21 (1-1 means one up pick and one down pick and no results from my vacation weeks). The percentage is the percentage of successful picks

Guy Adami= 38-24 = 61%
John Najarian= 13-4 = 76%
Jeff Macke= 43-32 = 55%
Pete Najarian= 29-26 = 52%
Tim Seymore= 4-3 = 57%
Karen Finerman= 22-13 = 61%
Stacey Briere-Gilbert= 3-0 = 100
Ned Riley= 1-0 = 100%
Carter Worth= 0-1 = 0%

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Altria Shareholders Need to Watch Exxon’s Supreme Court Appeal

Chief Justice John Roberts Supreme Court has elected to increase it’s review of punitive damages against corporations by hearing an appeal of a $2.5 billion award against Exxon Mobil (XOM) over the 1989 Valdez oil spill in Alaska. Altria (MO) shareholders ought to be very interested.

The award against Exxon, the largest ever by a U.S. federal court is the final major litigation left from the Valdez oil spill. To date Exxon has paid more than $3.4 billion in claims and fines tied to the spill, which dumped 258,000 barrels of oil into the Prince William Sound after the Valdez oil tanker ran aground.

The appeal, which is supported by business groups, challenges the punitive award with several legal arguments, chiefly, that a federal appeals court ignored both recent punitive damages precedent and improperly allowed the damages award under maritime law.

In recent years, the Supreme Court has put restrictions on the size of punitive damages awards and limited the use of awards to punish broader conduct outside the scope of a particular case. It is clear that there is a sea change underway in this area. Once used to punish and essentially destroy a business, the Roberts court has taken a microscope to the issue of what it views as “grossly excessive damages” and has said that these types of awards “violate due process”.

The last appeal ruling the court made in this area was last February when they set aside a nearly $80 million judgment against Altria awarded to the widow of a smoker in Oregon.

This has already filtered down to the state level. On July 6, 2006, the Florida Supreme Court decertified the Engle class-action litigation and reversed the state court jury’s award of $145 billion in punitive damages because, as a matter of law, the award was “improper and excessive.” The Florida Supreme Court also concluded that certain issues decided by the Engle trial jury may be considered as resolved for any potential future cases filed by former class members.

On March 22, 2002, an Oregon jury awarded a Mr. Schwarz $168,500 in compensatory damages, and $150,000,000 in punitive damages, which the court reduced to $100,000,000. On May 17, 2006, the Oregon Court of Appeals found no error in the award of compensatory damages, but vacated the punitive damages award and ordered a new trial to determine the amount of punitive damages.

The Exxon case will further define the scope of punitive damages available to plaintiffs in cases and based on history, that will be very good for Altria and its shareholders. The litigation environment has not been this good for Altria in over a decade now and the valuation cap that has been on shares for that time period is beginning to dissipate. Once the litigation risk to shares is clearly defined, and the Roberts court is slowly doing that, one can expect PE expansion in shares, lifting them higher.

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Tuesday’s 52 Week Low’s


RAD Rite Aid Corporation 3.86
Q Qwest Communications … 7.16
PTSI P A M Transportation … 16.26
PBI Pitney Bowes Inc 40.21
OPWV Openwave Sys Inc 3.90
HIAU Highlands Acquisition … 10.00
HDL Handleman Company 2.35
GW Grey Wolf Inc 5.45
GSBC Great Southern Bancor … 23.24
GRVY Gravity Co Ltd 3.51
DBD Diebold, Incorporated 40.25
BHS Brookfield Homes Corp 14.94
BXC Bluelinx Hldgs Inc 5.47
BRNC Bronco Drilling Co Inc 13.20

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