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Bernanke: Another Brilliant Move

Bernanke moved today and unlike the chorus of calls for a Fed Funds Rate cut we have heard, he moved both to calm markets and keep rates steady.

Saying, “Financial market conditions have deteriorated, and tighter credit conditions and increased uncertainty have the potential to restrain economic growth going forward. In these circumstances, although recent data suggest that the economy has continued to expand at a moderate pace, the Federal Open Market Committee judges that the downside risks to growth have increased appreciably. The Committee is monitoring the situation and is prepared to act as needed to mitigate the adverse effects on the economy arising from the disruptions in financial markets.”

Then they said “To promote the restoration of orderly conditions in financial markets, the Federal Reserve Board approved temporary changes to its primary credit discount window facility. The Board approved a 50 basis point reduction in the primary credit rate to 5-3/4 percent, to narrow the spread between the primary credit rate and the Federal Open Market Committee’s target federal funds rate to 50 basis points. The Board is also announcing a change to the Reserve Banks’ usual practices to allow the provision of term financing for as long as 30 days, renewable by the borrower. These changes will remain in place until the Federal Reserve determines that market liquidity has improved materially. These changes are designed to provide depositories with greater assurance about the cost and availability of funding. The Federal Reserve will continue to accept a broad range of collateral for discount window loans, including home mortgages and related assets. Existing collateral margins will be maintained.”

What didn’t they do? Lower the Fed target rate so Bernanke keep pressure on inflation. What he DID do was lower the borrowing rate for banks so that currently tight credit markets will loosen. Lenders like Washington Mutual (WM), Countrywide (CFC) and Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) will now have the systemic liquidity they need to continue loaning and functioning.

The move is also significant because it signals to the market that the Fed will not bail out poor lending practices but will prevent the market from seizing due to it and will protect the innocent from being swept away by the turmoil.

Now there are plenty of folks out there saying “he listened to us and lowered rates” but the reality is just the opposite. Nobody called for this particular move and if anything, those folks calling for Bernanke to resist a Fed Funds rate cut are in the correct camp. He did not give in the the market and this is good. What is even better is that the market now can be assured he will move to prevent the “crash” everyone feared was inevitable but will not, and this is even more important, subsidize idiocy.

I have been saying since he was appointed based on his past statements and actions that he will go down ad the best Fed leader of my generation. Today’s action makes that case even stronger.

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Friday’s Upgrades and Downgrades

UPGRADES

CSK Auto CAO Kevin Dann Hold » Buy
Washington Mutual WM Punk, Ziegel & Co Mkt Perform » Buy
Ultrapertol ULTR UBS Neutral » Buy
Network Appliance NTAP AG Edwards Hold » Buy
Network Appliance NTAP Caris & Company Above Average » Buy
Navigant Consult NCI Piper Jaffray Market Perform » Outperform
Ansoft ANST Boenning & Scattergood Market Perform » Market Outperform
Terra Industries TRA Matrix Research Hold » Strong Buy

DOWNGRADES

Woodward Governor WGOV Matrix Research Buy » Hold
Acusphere ACUS Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
Dover Downs Gaming DDE KeyBanc Capital Mkts / McDonald Buy » Hold
Meruelo Maddux MMPI UBS Neutral » Sell

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Thursday’s 52 Week Lows

More big names made the list today..

WYE Wyeth
WPSC Wheeling Pittsburgh Corp
THC Tenet Healthcare Corp
TYC Tyco
SHRP Sharper Image Corporation
SHOO Steven Madden Ltd
PFE Pfizer Inc
ODP Office Depot, Inc
NWL Newell Rubbermaid Inc
NMX Nymex Holdings Inc
MOT Motorola, Inc
MCO Moodys Corp
M Macys Inc
KSS Kohl’s Corporation
HRB H&R Block, Inc
HOG Harley-Davidson, Inc
HD Home Depot, Inc
FL Foot Locker Inc
CTAS Cintas Corporation
BX Blackstone Group L P
BC Brunswick Corporation
BBY Best Buy Co., Inc
AMGN Amgen Inc
AMD Advanced Micro Devices

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This Is Great

If you are like me and have 20 or more years before you plan on touching your investments, times like this make you giddy.

The DOW is back down to 12,500 and now at levels seen since April and another day or two of this will give us levels back to November 2006. Why then is this great?

1- The economy is still strong and growing. Profits are still rising at a double digit rate and unemployment is at historically low levels. GDP for Q2 will be revised up and there is no recession on the horizon.

2- Cash rich companies are buying back shares in unprecedented numbers.

3- Over 50% of S&P 500 companies profits come from overseas where economies are surging.

What does it mean? The underlying fundamentals are strong which means eventually share prices are going to turn around. What we have is a credit problem and when traders cannot sell off this debt, they sell what they can which is shares companies like in Goldman Sachs (GS), Dow Chemical (DOW) and Altria (MO). I mean, if we look at it logically are the events of the last month going to stop people from smoking OR will it effect Altria’s balance sheet which is laughingly unlevered? No.

So, are my picks down? Yup, so what?!? Paper losses mean nothing to me, purchase prices do at this point in my investing career. Market disturbances like this that cause mis-pricing of equities like we see now are great for me. What I am busy doing now is lowering my cost basis for recent purchases like Goldman, Wal-Mart (WMT) and Citigroup (C). The last time I could have bought shares of Goldman and Dow Chemical at these levels was Sept. 2006, Citigroup , February of 2006 and you have to go back to March of 2006 to buy Sears Holdings (SHLD) at these prices. The sale price if Sears now is so low that Chairman Eddie Lampert is tripping over himself to buyback shares. He has bought as many shares back in the last month as he had almost the entire last year!

In short, the world is not coming to an end and the economy is still very strong. Keep buying…

You know, if Buffett and Lampert are buying more shares every quarter, why aren’t you?

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Buffett to Lenders: "It’s Their Problem"

“If lenders lent money that they are not going to get paid back, that’s their problem, frankly”, said Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A)Warren Buffett yesterday. Finally, somebody gets it and is not calling for the Fed to bail lenders out.

Last week I said “The Fed will not bail out lenders that made dumb loans and now are in trouble. Bernanke is going to let the market work (as he should) and it is already taking care of things. Bad credit is harder to get, and hopefully credit standards return to what they should be. Both of these are good things long term.”

Back in March I posted abut the loose lending practices that have gotten lender in the mess they are in today. In it I detailed the “No Documentation” loan types that had proliferated the past few years and said:

“What is shocking is the justifications they give for those who these loans “may be right for”. You are buying a house, you are borrowing money from a bank to do so. The expectation is that you will need to have money to put down on it and actually be able to demonstrate an ability to pay the bank back. The phrase “take my word for it” should never enter the conversation. It did though and that is the genesis of the current situation. When buying a $500,000 house involved less paperwork than buying a Ford Escort, red flags ought to have been going up.

In 2005 and 2006 the number of both mortgage brokers and real estate agents hit historic highs. A mortgage is a commodity, give me a price and a rate and I will choose a broker. There is very little a broker can do to distinguish themselves from each other. With so many brokers and a limited number of qualified mortgage applicants, brokers had to find new applicants. The only place for them to go was the pool of people who under the current rules not only did not qualify for a mortgage would not receive credit from a bookie were they to ask. The new motto was “If they don’t fit under the current set of rules, change the rules”. So they did. What they failed to realize was, the rules were there for a reason, they worked. We are now realizing that people who do not want to provide proof of what they do for a living, how they earn income, what that income actually is or where their down payment is coming from are not doing so out of some symbolic “privacy concern”, but because what they are saying is quite frankly, bull. Who has trouble “verifying income”? Crack dealers? Illegal immigrants working under the table and not paying taxes? Contractors who cheat on their taxes? If you want my money, prove you can pay it back or take a walk and let the next person in line step up, unless of course the line is small, the others are just like you and we really need to give you the money… thus the mortgage industry dilemma the past few years. Like I have said more than a few times before, the surprise here is not that this happened, it is that it did not happen sooner.”

Maybe additional calmer heads will come out and stop calling on the Fed to bail out idiots and drown out the Jim Cramers of the world who are running around screeching like an 18 year old girl who got ketchup on their prom dress. Yes things may get worse but as Buffett also said yesterday “there will be real opportunities then”…

Translation? Get ready to buy

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Thursday’s Upgrades and Downgrades

UPGRADES

Intel INTC Credit Suisse Underperform » Outperform
Commercial Metals CMC CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Outperform
MFA Mortgage MFA JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
CBL & Assoc CBL JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Emergency Medical Services EMS Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Dril-Quip DRQ Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
AEterna Zentaris AEZS RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
MasterCard MA AG Edwards Hold » Buy
Universal Technical Institute UTI Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy
JDS Uniphase JDSU BMO Capital Markets Underperform » Market Perform
Perot Systems PER Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Tessera Tech TSRA Matrix Research Hold » Buy
Koppers Holdings KOP Matrix Research Buy » Strong Buy
Penn Natl Gaming PENN Nollenberger Capital Neutral » Buy


DOWNGRADES

MFA Mortgage MFA Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Thornburg Mortg TMA AG Edwards Hold » Sell
KKR Financial KFN Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Quest Diagnostics DGX Matrix Research Buy » Hold
Orbcomm ORBC Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
Midland Co MLAN KeyBanc Capital Mkts / McDonald Buy » Hold

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Wednesday’s 52 Week Lows

Dow down 5% in 5 days……some big names are making the list now

WMT Wal-Mart Stores, Inc
USG USG Corporation
TE TECO Energy, Inc
SKX Skechers U S A Inc
SCT Scottish Re Group Limited
SCSS Select Comfort Corp
RAIL Freightcar Amer Inc
NWL Newell Rubbermaid Inc
NVS Novartis A G
MAS Masco Corporation
M Macys Inc
LIZ Liz Claiborne, Inc
LEH Lehman Brothers Holdings
HOG Harley-Davidson, Inc
FL Foot Locker Inc
DAL Delta Air Lines Inc Del
CHS Chico’s FAS Inc
CFC Countrywide Financial
BOW Bowater Incorporated
AMD Advanced Micro Devices

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Thinking Like Lampert

In mid May I wrote a post about selling my Citigroup shares to Sears Holdings (SHLD) Chairman and ESL leader Eddie Lampert.

In it I lamented the fact that I was thinking along the same lines as Lampert but did not stick to my guns and bailed on Citi (C) shares at the same time Lampert was buying them. I vowed not to make the same mistake again and re-entered my Citi position. This turned out to be a great test as recent events (has anyone heard anything about a credit market issue?) have caused my Citi position to drop from $54 to todays $45 (Lampert’s original entry price was estimated to be around $54 a share). Rather than cutting my losses last week (August 9th) I picked up more shares at $47.57 in part of my vow not to make the same mistake twice and I do not mind getting paid a 4.6% and growing dividend to wait. At the same time I picked up more Sears Holdings shares some 30% off it’s high from earlier this year at $130 and change.

I took a large amount of satisfaction in the news that Lampert boosted his stake in Citigroup by 63 percent during Q2. In a SEC filing, ESL Investments held 24.8 million Citigroup shares at the end Q2, up from 15.2 million shares during the first quarter. Compound this with the news of the additional $1.5 billion Sears share buyback plan announced Monday and it has been a very good couple weeks for my investment reasoning.

Since ESL was founded in 1988, Lampert has lost money only twice, in 1990 and 2002 (he followed the 2002 losses with 45% and 54% returns in 2003 and 2004) and has treated clients to annualized returns of 24%.

Based on his history, Lampert will not make any public proclamations about the job Citi CEO Chuck Prince is doing and whether or not he should keep it. He works behind the scenes and this is probably part of the reason he is almost always able to get the changes he wants enacted with little push back from management.

Time will tell how this works out I am very optimistic that based on his track record and my thinking along the same lines recently (after a very irritating lesson earlier in the year) that these investment will turn out very well indeed.

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Wednesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades

Here are the calls

UPGRADES

Fossil FOSL Piper Jaffray Market Perform » Outperform
Methanex MEOH CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Underperform » Sector Perform
Wash. Federal WFSL Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Allegheny Tech ATI Davenport Buy » Strong Buy
A.M. Castle CAS Davenport Buy » Strong Buy
Carpenter Tech CRS Davenport Buy » Strong Buy
RF Micro Device RFMD Charter Equity Mkt Perform » Buy
Domtar UFS DA Davidson Neutral » Buy
Insituform Tech INSU Morgan Joseph Sell » Hold
OmniVision OVTI Pacific Growth Equities Neutral » Buy
Lexmark LXK FTN Midwest Sell » Neutral
Leap Wireless LEAP Stanford Research Hold » Buy


DOWNGRADES

Northstar Realty NRF Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight
Newcastle Investment NCT Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight
KKR Financial KFN Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight
Arbor Realty Trust ABR Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight
Thornburg Mortg TMA Citigroup Hold » Sell
UBS AG UBS Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Daktronics DAKT Janco Partners Accumulate » Mkt Perform
Pope & Talbot POP DA Davidson Neutral » Underperform
Sirenza Micro SMDI Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
Haverty Furniture HVT Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
Thornburg Mortg TMA Piper Jaffray Market Perform » Underperform
Thornburg Mortg TMA Jefferies & Co Hold » Underperform
Avery Dennison AVY Matrix Research Hold » Sell

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"Fast Money" for Wednesday

Here are todays calls and yesterday’s results

Wednesday’s Picks

Jeff Macke recommended covering if you’re short Home Depot (HD). Open $33.52

Pete Najarian told people to short Countrywide Financial (CFC). Open $24.46

For the second day in a row, Guy Adami thought investors should bet against the Dow by buying the Short Dow30 Proshares (DOG). Open $60.98

Tuesday’s Results

Jeff Macke thought investors should buy the Retail HOLDRS (RTH). Open $99.75 Close $96.41 Loss $3.34

Pete Najarian recommended shorting Countrywide Financial (CFC). Open $26.61 close $24.46 Gain $2.15

Guy Adami preferred to get short the whole DJIA by buying the Short Dow30 Proshares (DOG). Open $60.17 Close $60.98 Gain $.81

Eric Bolling liked streetTRACKS Gold Trust (GLD). Open $66.26 Close $66.29 Gain $.03

Since my tracking began on 6/21 (1-1 means one up pick and one down pick and no results from my vacation week)

Adami= 14-11 Gain $25.92
Bolling= 9-11 Loss $15.26
John Najarian= 13-3 Gain $15.54
Macke= 20-14 Gain $3.62
Pete Najarian= 9-7 Gain $18.79
Seymore= 3-1 Gain $2.15
Finerman= 2-2 Gain $.88
Gilbert= 1-0 Gain $.29

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Tuesday’s 52 Week Lows

Here is the list that hit a new 52 week low

TRB Tribune Company
TMA Thornburg Mortgage
TBL The Timberland Company
SNY Sanofi Aventis
SPLS Staples Inc
POP Pope & Talbot, Inc
PMI The PMI Group, Inc
NYT New York Times Company
NXXI Nutrition 21 Inc
NVS Novartis A G
MCO Moodys Corp
JOE St. Joe Company
DAL Delta Air Lines Inc Del
CTRN Citi Trends Inc
ALU Alcatel-Lucent

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Home Depot: Supply Sale and Buyback Soon Dead

Home Depot (HD) released earnings today and it was just ugly. It also will lead to the death of the Supply division and a drastic reduction of the massive buyback that was announced because without one, the other cannot happen. Even if I am wrong and they do manage to sell Supply, it will be for such a reduced price that the buyback will still be reduced even father than already announced.

First, earnings. 2007 Q2 consolidated net earnings of $1.6 billion, or $0.81 per share, compared with $1.9 billion, or $0.90 per share, last year. Earnings from continuing operations in Q2 were $1.5 billion, or $0.77 per share, compared to fiscal 2006 Q2 earnings from continuing operations of $1.7 billion, or $0.82 per share. The Company is now breaking out results of HD Supply as a discontinued operation.

Sales for the Q2 were $22.2 billion, a 1.8 percent decrease from Q2 2006, reflecting negative same store sales of 5.2%.

HD reiterated in its outlook that it expects its EPS from continuing operations to decline by 12-15% for 2007 and EPS is expected to decline by 15-18% for 2007.

Home Depot said that it will “continue to assess financial market conditions, and the impact of any restructured HD Supply transaction to sell its supply business, or failure to complete that transaction, on its overall recapitalization plan and on the terms of the tender offer part of that plan.”

CFO Carol Tome said the company had previously sized its recapitalization plan based on $10.3 billion of anticipated proceeds from the sale of HD Supply and $12 billion of debt finance to be raised “as soon as practical”. “If we have no proceeds from HD Supply — and I’m not saying that’s the case — but if that were to happen our recap would be reduced to $12 billion,” said Chief Financial Officer Carol Tome.

Well, I would count on the reduction. Let’s look at it. Supply profits fell $22 million last quarter so the sale price reduction the PE guys will want will be substantial. Also, they can walk away for $300 million if Home Depot does not want to play nice so they are in a position to push for a substantial price drop. They have Home Depot by the nuts. Does anyone care to wager when “as soon as practicable” will be for the $12 billion of debt? With Home Depot’s credit rating dropping fast and looking to go lower and with debt markets becoming tighter, that $12 billion may not be “practicable” for years.

All in all Home Depot is in a self imposed mess trying to placate irrational investors. I bet they now long for the days when Nardelli ran things. He may have been unlikable and arrogant, but he got results. He doubled sales and the number of store operations while expanding into Mexico and China. Under him HD delivered more than 20 percent EPS growth for four consecutive years and more than quintupled its dividend to 90 cents a share.

From early 2003 to early 2006, Nardelli took HD shares from $21 to $43. When the bottom began to fall out of housing, HD dropped to $33 August of last year. When he left at the beginning of 2007, the stock was back at $40. Shares today sit at $33.

Be careful what you wish for…

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Wal-Mart: Can We Get A Lampert Buyback?

Yesterday I said the only thing I really cared about was the number of shares Wal-Mart (WMT) bought back in the last three months and a minimum of 22 million shares was the number I was looking for. The results were released today and the share count was reduce from 4,128,0000 shares to 4,102,000 in the last three months for a total 26 million share reduction.

Good, but for some reason I am not totally happy. The reason? They updated their full year guidance for earnings per share from continuing operations for 2008, which now is estimated to be between $3.05 and $3.13. This is down from the initial forecast of between $3.15 and $3.23 per share. Now, this is only a 3% reduction and the market is over reacting today to it like they have been everything else the past month but bad news is bad news.

Here is the thing. Wal-Mart still sits on $6 billion in cash. Why aren’t they picking up shares like Eddie Lampert is at Sears Holdings (SHLD)? One would think that Lee Scott would want to announce anything but a EPS decrease at this point. Any goodwill he got at the annual meeting with the shareholder friendly announcements he made is just about wiped out today. Why not accelerate the share repurchases to avoid that announcement? It is not like shares have run up in value to level not seen before, we have seen these levels for the majority of the 21st century.

Wal-Mart announced a $15 billion repurchase plan in June. If they bought back another $6 billion in the remainder of this year, that would reduce the share count by…. 3%! Where have we seen that number before? Oh, yeah, it is equal to the earnings reduction announced today. They could have avoided today’s announcement. Now, there is the possibility that Wal-Mart may be doing the old “reduce expectations and then beat them” game but based on it’s history, that is not very likely.

I think I am staring to wish Lee Scott was not there again. It has been an 18 month turnaround that looks to have stalled.

Next batter…

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Another Starbucks Competitor: Proctor & Gamble?

As if Starbucks (SBUX) did not have enough problems dealing with the competition for store traffic, now they have more competition for shelf space.

Proctor & Gamble (PG) and Dunkin’ Donuts are teaming up to distribute Dunkin’ Donuts coffee in big retailers nationwide. They will distribute the coffee through retailers such as Wal-Mart (WMT), Kroger (KR), Costco (COST), and even CVS Caremark (CVS) across the country.

The move for Dunkin’, whose stores are mostly located in the Northeast is a great way to get it’s product to people when they are not out AND introduce people to it in areas Dunkin’ plans to expand to. It is yet another area that Starbucks is seeing it’s hold on the US coffee market dwindle, fast. The impact here on Starbucks will be felt soon as grocery shoppers are far less likely to pay the premium Starbucks wants for it’s coffee without the “Starbucks experience” that presumes to still go with it and will be sorely lacking inside a Kroger supermarket. They are far more likely to go for the alternative, a very good Dunkin’ coffee that will be a fraction of the price (and they will probably have a coupon in their hand for it).

Is this a huge deal? Will it single handedly wreck the next quarter for Starbucks? No, and no. BUT, and this is a very big but, it is yet another area Starbucks used to have to itself that it now must share with a competitor. So far, Starbucks has not done very well adapting to the encroachment of it’s turf by a competitor. They have had no effective answer to improved coffee offerings at McDonald’s (MCD) and have watched customers defect to the convenience and affordability the Golden Arches offer. Now, it must share the space in grocery chains with another quality competitor also offering their product much more affordably.

Often, several little things add up to a big one. This is one of those times.

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Tuesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


UPGRADES

Qwest Q Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
Aspen Insurance AHL Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Websense WBSN JP Morgan Underweight » Overweight
RF Micro Device RFMD Citigroup Hold » Buy
Assured Guaranty AGO Citigroup Hold » Buy
Gap Inc GPS CL King Neutral » Strong Buy
Weyerhaeuser WY McAdams,Wright,Ragen Hold » Buy
Charlotte Russe CHIC B. Riley & Co Neutral » Buy
Top Tankers TOPT Cantor Fitzgerald Hold » Buy
Precision Drilling PDS RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Amgen AMGN Bernstein Mkt Perform » Outperform
Comerica CMA Deutsche Securities Sell » Hold
CF Industries CF Citigroup Hold » Buy
Dreamworks Animation DWA Sanders Morris Harris Neutral » Buy
EDS EDS UBS Sell » Neutral
Kellwood KWD Morgan Keegan Underperform » Mkt Perform
BEA Systems BEAS Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform

DOWNGRADES

Alexza Pharma ALXA JMP Securities Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform
Thornburg Mortg TMA Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Underperform
Thornburg Mortg TMA RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform
Physicians Formula FACE Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Thornburg Mortg TMA Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform
ADA-ES ADES Canaccord Adams Buy » Hold
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals ALNY Needham & Co Buy » Hold
Diebold DBD KeyBanc Capital Mkts / McDonald Buy » Hold
World Fuel Svcs INT Calyon Securities Buy » Add