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Sears Holdings: If Lampert Is Buying More, Shouldn’t We?

So here is the financial nitty gritty. Sears Holdings (SHLD) said this morning it expected quarterly profit of $160 million to $200 million, or $1.06 to $1.32 a share, including special items.

Those special items would be an after-tax gain of about $12 million from bankruptcy-related settlements and total return swap investing activities, Sears expects to earn 98 cents to $1.24 per share. A gain on the total return swaps is good news.Last year in Q2, Sears earned $294 million, or $1.88 a share. Excluding special gains, it earned $272 million, or $1.74 per share.

Sears said it expected to end the second quarter with about $2.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents, excluding Sears Canada, down from $3.1 billion at the end of the first quarter.

In addition, Sears announced a new $1 billion share repurchase authorization in addition to the $121 million worth of shares still available for repurchase under an existing program. Sears said it had bought back about 13.8 million shares for $1.9 billion since the repurchase plan was approved in the third quarter of fiscal 2005. As of July 7, it had about 150.9 million common shares outstanding. On the last 10Q, Sears stated that the had 152,492,175 shares outstanding meaning Lampert has bought 1,592,170 shares since May 25. The new $1 billion program will take 7.1 million shares off the market or 4.7% of shares outstanding. A huge amount? No, but we know, based on past results this plan will be completed and share count reduced.

Should we panic? Sell? Hell no. Why? Sears is tied to the housing market far more than most other clothing retailers. It sells a huge amount of appliances, tools and yard equipment. It is a true mix of a Home Depot (HD) and a Macy’s (M) or JC Penny (JCP). That part of Sears is getting hit hard and it is not a management issue as both Home Depot and Lowes (LOW) are suffering the same fate now. Sears did say that women’s and children’s apparel both showed gains last quarter and the Land’s End division is having a record year. Neither of these are signs of a failing retailer. Rather, Sears is a retailer caught in the unavoidable train wreck that is the US housing market. When housing turns around, and yes it will, you will be left with a retailer that has made huge gains fixing it’s apparel offerings and now will be drawing more shoppers to those stores who are now spending money on their homes. They will also now have vastly different choices for apparel and based on current trends, will be buying them also.

Just as folks are claiming Home Depot and Lowes are undervalued, so to is Sears and for the same reasons. Today’s prices are a sale.

The reported numbers were from results for the nine weeks ended on July 7. The second quarter ends on August 4 and Sears said it did not plan to update its outlook before announcing second-quarter results on or about August 30.

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Today’s Upgrades / Downgrades

Here are this mornings calls

UPGRADES:

First Solar FSLR Am Tech/JSA Research Sell » Neutral

Greenbrier Comp GBX Morgan Keegan Underperform » Mkt Perform

Delta Petroleum DPTR AG Edwards Hold » Buy

Take-Two TTWO Soleil Hold » Buy

Dawson Geophys. DWSN Matrix Research Hold » Buy

Principal Financial PFG Bernstein Mkt Perform » Outperform

SK Telecom SKM Citigroup Hold » Buy

United Comm Banks UCBI Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy

Micron MU Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy

Scotts Miracle-Gro SMG JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight

PNM Resources PNM Citigroup Sell » Hold

DIRECTV DTV Citigroup Hold » Buy

DOWNGRADES:

Extreme Networks EXTR Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight

Darling International Inc DAR Avondale Partners Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform

Altera ALTR AG Edwards Buy » Hold

Unica UNCA Needham & Co Buy » Hold

Spirit Finance SFC Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral

SMSC SMSC Matrix Research Buy » Hold

First Solar FSLR Lazard Capital Buy » Hold

American Science & Engineering ASEI Roth Capital Buy » Hold

Natural Resource NRP Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform

AMEDISYS AMED BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold

Graco GGG CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Outperform » Sector Perform

Sempra Energy SRE RBC Capital Mkts Top Pick » Outperform

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Today’s 52 Week Lows

Here are the new cellar dwellers. Regional banks are now getting hit

MYL Mylan Laboratories Inc
LXK Lexmark International

SCMF Southern Community Financial Corp
SBBX Sussex Bancorp

REDE Redenvelope Inc
FFSX First Fed Bankshares
FCCO First Community Corp S C
FBNC First Bancorp North Carolina

BOMK Bank Of Mckenney Va
AWBC Americanwest Bancorp
ABVA Alliance Bankshares Corp

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Now Conoco Teaches Home Depot A Lesson

Just in case management at Home Depot (HD) did not learn anything about how to announce a buyback, from Best Buy’s (BBY) announced share repurchase, ConocoPhillips (COP) today tried to drive the point home.

ConocoPhillips (COP)approved the repurchase of up to $15 billion of the company’s shares through the end of 2008. This amount includes $2 billion remaining under the $4 billion program previously announced on February 9, 2007. Based upon its current commodity price and operational outlook, ConocoPhillips expects third quarter 2007 purchases of $2 billion to $3 billion, and fourth quarter 2007 purchases of a similar range. Now this is a buyback announcement.

With a market cap of $133 billion, Conoco will take 11% of the company off the market by the end of 2008. They will do this by taking 3% to 4.5% this year and the rest in 2008. Unlike Home Depots “we are going to buy back a lot sometime in the future” announcement, this one gives us the details we need to determine if it is a good one or not. Clearly this is. This is the reason shares have jumped almost 4% since the announcement while the Depot’s were unmoved.

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Today’s Upgrades / Downgrades

Here are today’s early analyst calls.

UPGRADES:

National Financial Partners NFP Lehman Brothers Underweight » Overweight

Regal-Beloit RBC KeyBanc Capital Mkts / McDonald Buy » Aggressive Buy

Walgreen WAG Matrix Research Buy » Strong Buy

ScanSource SCSC Matrix Research Hold » Buy

Virage Logic VIRL Needham & Co Hold » Buy

ISIS Pharm ISIS Needham & Co Buy » Strong Buy

Terex TEX Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform

Astec Industries ASTE Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform

Powerwave PWAV Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform

Central Garden CENT Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy

Silgan Holdings SLGN Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight

Quality Systems QSII Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy

Rush Enterprises RUSHA Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform

Cummins CMI Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform

PACCAR PCAR Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform

Xilinx XLNX Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform $30 » $37

Expeditors Intl EXPD Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform

Harley-Davidson HOG Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform

Regal-Beloit RBC Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy

Weatherford WFT JP Morgan Underweight » Neutra

DOWNGRADES:

Komag KOMG Citigroup Buy » Hold

Watsco WSO KeyBanc Capital Mkts / McDonald Aggressive Buy » Buy

IMPAC Mortgage IMH Roth Capital Buy » Hold

Hilton Hotels HLT Matrix Research Buy » Hold

Baidu.com BIDU Citigroup Buy » Hold

McDermott MDR Calyon Securities Buy » Add

Commerce Bancorp CBH Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey Buy » Neutral

Tyco TYC Citigroup Hold » Sell

Ensco ESV Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform

Eldorado Gold EGO UBS Buy » Neutral

Allied World Assurance AWH Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight

Ball Corp BLL Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral

Visicu EICU Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold

Cablevision CVC Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold

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Another Dow Joint Venture

I do not have may details yet but Dow Chemical’s (DOW) European unit has signed a joint venture agreement with India’s Gujarat Alkalies and Chemicals Ltd to manufacture chlorine-based products at the Gujarat’s Dahej project site in the western state of Gujarat, The Economic Times reported.

A government source refused to divulge any information on the investment and size of the proposed plant, The Economic Times said.

GACL’s managing director Guruprasad Mohapatra announced “Both Dow and GACL have a lot of synergies. We will benefit from Dow’s proven technologies and presence in the globe”

The companies are working on the details of the 50-50 joint venture, which is expected to sell products in India and overseas. Dow will provide the technology for the joint venture.

Again, perfectly in keeping with CEO Andrew Liveris’s “asset light” strategy. He continues to delivery on his stated goals for shareholders as it seems a new joint venture is being announced at least once a month as he move Dow from it’s cyclical commodities business into the specialty chemical area that will giver shareholder steadier returns and diversify earnings.

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Retails Sales Preview: Yawn

On Thursday this week retailers are expected to announce June numbers and economists project sales to fall 0.3%, with weaker spending on vehicles, gasoline, building materials and clothing.

In their weekly preview, Brian Bethune and Nigel Gault, U.S. economists for Global Insight wrote, “Consumer spending will conclude the second quarter with a whimper” and Leslie Preston, an economist for CIBC World Markets, said “Consumption is looking anemic”

Macy’s (M), J.C. Penney (JCP), Kohl’s (KSS) and Saks (SKS) all have forecast a decline in June same-store sales. Sears Holdings (SHLD) does not announce numbers.

The assumption seems to be that consumer spending, which jumped at a 4.2% pace in the first quarter, slowed to about a third of that rate in Q2. Excepting the quarter that followed hurricane’s Katrina and Rita, it would be the weakest quarterly spending in more than four years.

The past weeks reports on retail chain store sales were weak and the results showed the slowest growth since the recession ended in late 2001. Further, The International Council of Shopping Centers expects year-over-year growth of 1.5% to 2% for same store sales in June, 1/2 the growth rate seen earlier in the expansion.

Let’s also not forget that last year had the Memorial Day shopping weekend in June and it was in May this year. What we will really need to do is average the two months together to get a more accurate number.

So, what happens? Who cares. Expectations are low so if they do not do well, we expected that. If they surprise to the upside, shares run up on the news. If they completely disappoint, because expectations are not that hight to begin with, the downside is not that far. The perverse reality is that any further downside will only stoke already simmering merger and buyout rumors which will buoy shares, the old “bad news is good news scenario”.

Just sit tight, a lot of people have lost a lot of money over the years betting against the consumer. Will there be a blip sooner or later? Sure, there has to be, but long term, the trend is up.

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Top Stories at Value Investing News

Here are this weeks top picks at VIN


1- Martin Whitmans 3rd Avenue Letter
Tickers TM, BAM, BRK.A, FCE-A, NBR, JOE

2- Value Creation or Destruction Tickers AGL

3- On Disney, Pixar and Ratatouille Tickers DIS

4- DNA Of A Superinvestor

5- On Dangers of Homogeneity

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Buffett and Johnson & Johnson

Here is a post that was emailed to me about Buffett and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). It is well worth the read. Here is the first paragraph:

“As of March 31, 2007, Warren Buffett’s company, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), reportedly increased its holding in Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) to 48.7 million shares-an increase of 24 million shares in three months. And it’s no surprise. Forget Wall Street’s earnings, JNJ knows how to generate cash!

Buffett tells us we should look at 4- and 5-year histories to judge the performance of a company and that we should look primarily at the intrinsic value of a company and pay a fair or bargain price. Let’s follow the lead of this investing genius:”

You can read the wholepost here.

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Sprint Admits They Are "Unable Meet Your Current Wireless Needs"

I have posted in the past about the customer service at Sprint Nextel (S) since the merger. Here is another shining example of what has turned from incompetence to what can only be described as self flagulation? If I was a shareholder, I would be seething. Since I am not, I am still laughing.

The site Blackberry Cool has posted a letter from Sprint “cutting the cord” with a customer and this apparently is something Sprint is doing more regularly. Here is the line that made me laugh out loud “the number of inquiries you have made to us during this time has led us to determine we are unable to meet your current wireless needs.”

Like what? Connecting their calls and billing them properly?

Just in case I was not laughing hard enough they then informed the customer that they would generously “not require you to pay an early termination fee”. Honestly, you cannot make this up!!

To put the icing on the cake, they then told the customer if they had any questions they should….. you guessed it….. “call the customer care department”. Isn’t that why they jettisoned them in the first place? AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) must be smiling watching this implosion.

This is a stunning admission from a company bleeding customers on a quarterly basis. I think they have the whole “customer service” thing backwards, it is not us who is supposed to serve them…

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Macy’s Into Sears Holdings?

Sears Holdings (SHLD) shares jumped over $5.68 Friday as rumors bounced around that Lampert may be getting ready to use some of the $4 billion plus he has sitting around in Sears coffers. Analysts said Macy’s (M) investors seemed to be positioning for a possible merger, reflected by a sharp rise in the department store’s options call volume as rumors of a deal percolated.

“There is some renewed takeover speculation in Macy’s heading into the weekend. Therefore, investors are buying shares and some options in case something happens,” said William Lefkowitz, options strategist at brokerage firm vFinance Investments in New York.

“The latest chatter today in dealing rooms is that super-investor Eddie Lampert may be looking to tie Macy’s and Sears Holdings together,” said Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers Group, in an e-mailed report.

Shares of Macy’s, that had been trading 15% below their YTD high have jumped on the rumors. Does the deal make sense? Hell yes. With a value of about 1/2 Sears Holdings, Macy’s would fit perfectly under the Sears umbrella. Not only that, the folks currently running things at Macy’s, who have have done a wonderful job the last 4 years with the Macy’s brand, could offer Lampert’s team assistance in revitalizing both Sears and Kmart. Macy’s has had problems with it’s May’s chain acquired in 2005 and I would be willing to bet if Lampert bought Macy’s, May’s would be gutted and sold to provide operating cash. How much? Consider Macy’s converted more than 400 former May’s locations to its namesake chain in September, about a year after buying the rival for $11 billion. The retailer owns more than half of its 858 Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s stores. The rest the company leases or owns on leased land. That would give Lampert a plethora of options the finance the deal and make it accredive to earnings almost immediately.

But, this is not the true “valueplay” Lampert has become known for and Macy’s is not currently selling at a bargain. Consider also that it only sits on only $500 million in cash and over $9 billion in debt. This alone would force Lampert to sell huge chunks of real estate to pay down existing debt and any debt added in the acquisition. Macy’s has repurchased over $3 billion in stock the last 28 weeks but has added $1.5 billion in debt doing so. Losing the dividend would save Lampert another $275 million a year and help reduce debt.

Should we root for this? Yes. If Lampert goes for it, he is seeing value in the assets and name far in excess of the current price. The plus of having Lampert buy it? He will have the ability to quickly extract that value for shareholders, of which, we must always remember, he will be the largest one.

If he doesn’t and this is all just another baseless rumor, oh well, the exercise was fun in an otherwise painfully monotonous news summer to date.

Did anyone hear anything about some new phone?

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This Weeks Notable Insider buys

As Peter Lynch said “There are a multitude of reasons insiders sell shares, but only one reason they buy, they think the stock price is going up”. With that in minds, here is this weeks list. You’ll notice a reoccurring name.

1- Chesapeake Energy (CHK)= $3,500,000- Third week in a row in top 3.

2- Chelsea Therapeutics (CHTP)= $2,800,000

3- Titanium Metals (TIE)= $1,500,000

4- Intrusion Corp (INTZ)= $500,000

5- Capital Lease Funding (LSE)= $217,000

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Another Mystifying Analyst Call: Starbucks

A Bear Stearns (BSC) analyst cut his price target on gourmet coffee retailer Starbucks (SBUX) Monday, saying it’s still a good time to buy the stock, but the shares may not rise as quickly as he previously thought.

The analyst, Joseph Buckley lowered his price target to $35 from $47 and said recent cautious statements by company management indicate sales may be lower than the company’s own expectations with higher dairy costs pressuring margins. Where have we heard that one before? Another thing, how can you drop your “price target” 25% and still go out and tell people to buy shares? Isn’t there some Hippocratic oath these guy have to take? Something like “don’t blow smoke up people’s a**” or is it more like “stick some lipstick on that pig”?

Investors, he added, may focus on those negative aspects rather than sales growth, lowering the chance that its Aug. 1 earnings release will serve as a catalyst for the stock. That and the fact they may actually miss those estimates and, when can I ask did sales growth become more important than earnings? Are we flashing back to 1999?

“Overall market sentiment seems very focused on the near-term negatives and ill-focused on this company’s strengths and growth prospects,” he said. “This, in our view, is a more appropriate time to buy than sell.” But just do not expect to make very much. The very fact they do this “price target” game is a joke. Nobody knows what shares will trade at a year from now, why bother telling people?

Really you just cannot make this stuff up..

Are Starbucks shares a “value” now? No, but they are getting close. If they miss earnings this quarter or guide lower for the future, shares will get creamed and they just may hit the $22 price I would be willing to pay…. just might.

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Today’s Upgrades / Downgrades

Here are the late Thursday and early Friday calls

UPGRADES:

BP BP Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy

Union Drilling UDRL Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
Raymond James RJF Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform

Overseas Shipholding OSG JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight

Royal Dutch Shell RDS.A Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy

Magna MGA JMP Securities MktPerform » Mkt Outperform

Parker Drilling PKD Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform

Tecumseh Prods TECUA Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform

Microsemi MSCC Caris & Company Above Average » Buy

Steel Dynamics STLD Longbow Neutral » Buy

DOWNGRADES:

Hilton Hotels HLT Calyon Securities Buy » Neutral

Hilton Hotels HLT Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform

Hilton Hotels HLT\ Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral

Hilton Hotels HLT Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold

Hilton Hotels HLT Citigroup Buy » Hold

Sierra Wireless SWIR Avondale Partners Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform

Hilton Hotels HLT AG Edwards Buy » SelL

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"Fast Money" Picks for Friday

In tonight’s Final Trade the guys recommend the best US companies exposed to global growth. These are not really “tomorrows trades” so I will not included toiday’s results in the tracking. Based on the show, these are more investments.

Jeff Macke recommends Intel (INTC) because the world needs computers.

Pete Najarian likes Peabody Energy (BTU) as a coal play.

Guy Adami prefers Caterpillar (CAT) because heavy equipment is needed to get commodities out of the ground.

Eric Bolling says Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) because 70% of the company’s exposure is international.

Thursday’s results from Tuesday’s show:

Jeff Macke recommends Disney (DIS) going into the holiday weekend because of its theme parks and that rat movie. Open $34.54 Close $34.63, Gain $.09

Pete Najarian says watch Hilton (HLT) this weekend because “someone is looking” at the hotel chain. Open $36.05 Close $45.39, Gain $9.34

Guy Adami reiterates his bullishness on Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Open $85.10 Close $85.66, Gain $.56

Eric Bolling calls Chevron (CVX), the “best energy name on the board.” Open $86.33 Close $86.57 Gain $.24

Records:

Since my tracking began on 6/21 (1-1 means one up pick and one down pick)

Adami= 6-4 Gain $30.28
Bolling= 6-3 Loss $6.44
John Najarian= 7-3 Gain $11.61
Macke= 10-5 Gain $6.83
Pete Najarian=3-0 Gain $20.20
Seymore= 1-0 Gain $.35
Finerman= 0-1 Loss $.18