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"Fast Money" 7/2

Here are today’s picks and results to date:

Jeff Macke likes McDoanld’s (MCD) Open $51.38.

Pete Najarian recommends Quiksilver (ZQK) because he thinks they’re a takeover target. Open $14.36

Guy Adami recommends Freeport-McMoRan (FCX). Open $84.68

Eric Bolling likes Synchronoss Technologies (SNCR) which he thinks is as a takeover target. Open $28.59


Here is how Friday’s picks fared Monday:

Jeff Macke recommended adding tech positions and says Hewlett Packard (HPQ), Open- $44.62 Close $45.19- Gain $.57, Dell (DELL) Open- $28.55 Close $28.93- Gain $.38 and Intel (INTC) Open- $23.74 Close $24.27-Gain $.53

Pete Najarian likes China through the Beijing Olympics. He recommends China Mobile (CHL) Open- $53.90 Close $55.27- Gain $1.37, China Unicom (CHU) Open- $17.23 Close $17.63- Gain $.40 and Baidu.com (BIDU) Open- 167.98 Close $186.41- Gain $18.43.

Guy Adami recommends Cisco (CSCO) Open $27.85 Close$37.89- Gain $.04

Jon Najarian liked Disney (DIS) Open $34.14 Close $34.52- Gain $.38

Records:

Since my tracking began on 6/21 (1-1 means one up pick and one down pick)

Adami= 4-4 Gain $29.28
Bolling= 4-3 Loss $1.73
John Najarian= 6-2 Gain $2.61
Macke= 8-5 Gain $6.72
Pete Najarian=3-0 Gain $20.20
Seymore= 1-0 Gain $.35
Finerman= 0-1 Loss $.18

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Today’s 52 Week Lows

Here are today’s cellar dwellers. It is a homebuilding deluxe…

Meritage Homes- MTH

Lennar- LEN

Hovnanaian- HOV

Beazer Homes- BZH

American Home Mtg.- AHM

New Century Bancorp- NCBC

Leesport Financial- LFPB

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DJIA Leaders & Laggards Year To Date

Here are the top and bottom five performers year to date on the DJIA

LEADERS:

1- Alcoa (AA)= 35.1%

2- Caterpillar (CAT)= 27.7%

3- Honeywell (HON)= 24.4%

4- General Motors (GM)= 23.1%

5- AT&T (T)= 16.1%

LAGGARDS:

1- Citigroup (C)= -7.9%

2- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)= -6.7%

3- Proctor & Gamble (PG)= -4.8%

4- AIG (AIG)= -2.3%

5- Home Depot (HD)= -2%

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"Fast Money" : Monday’s Picks and Friday’s Results

Jeff Macke recommended adding tech positions and says Hewlett Packard (HPQ), Open- $44.62, Dell (DELL) Open- 28.55 and Intel (INTC) Open- 23.74

Pete Najarian likes China through the Beijing Olympics. He recommends China Mobile (CHL) Open- $53.90, China Unicom (CHU) Open- $17.23 and Baidu.com (BIDU) Open- 167.98.

Guy Adami recommends Cisco (CSCO) Open $27.85.

Jon Najarian like Disney (DIS) Open $34.14

FRIDAY’S RESULTS:

Macke- Ford (F) Open $9.49, Close $9.42= Loss $.07

Najarian- Immersion Corp (IMMR)Open $14.37, Close $14.98 = Gain $.61

Adami- Dell (DELL). Open $28.45, Close $28.55= Gain $.10

Bolling- Chevron (CVX). Open $84.14, Close $84.24= Gain $.10

Records:

Since my tracking began on 6/21 (1-1 means one up pick and one down pick)

Adami= 3-4 Gain $29.24
Bolling= 4-3 Loss $1.73
Najarian= 5-2 Gain $2.23
Macke= 5-5 Gain $6.23
Seymore= 1-0 Gain $.35
Finerman= 0-1 Loss $.18

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Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades

Here is this morning’s analyst action.

UPGRADES:

Archer-Daniels Midland- ADM Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy

McClatchy- MNI Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform

American Financial Realty Trust- AFR UBS Neutral » Buy

Santarus- SNTS Susquehanna Financial Negative » Neutral

Commerce Bancorp- CBH RBC Capital Mkts Underperform » Sector Perform

Tribune- TRB Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy


DOWNGRADES:

Intlernational Paper- IP Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral

Meruelo Maddux- MMPI UBS Buy » Neutral

SanDisk- SNDK CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Outperform » Sector Perform

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Glycerin To Ethanol Details

Two weeks ago I posted about an ethanol production breakthrough at Rice University and I promised more info when I got it. I recently spoke with Ramon Gonzalez, the William Akers Assistant Professor in Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering about his breakthrough.

Here is the math. We have a 100 mgpy biodiesel plant. In our production of the biodiesel, one of the by products is glycerin. Currently, most producers must pay to have it disposed of. Now, using Mr. Gonzalez’s methods, they can convert it to ethanol.

100 mgpy of biodiesel produces roughly 75 million pound of glycerin. That glycerin can be converted into ethanol at a cost that is 40% cheaper than the current corn to ethanol cost (about 40 to 45 cents a gallon). How much ethanol? 75 million pounds of glycerin would produce about 9.3 mpgy of ethanol. Now, the ethanol production from glycerin would produces as a by-product “performance acids” that can used in then production of fuel cells.

We now have a process that takes the cost of disposing glycerin and turns it into a profit of roughly $13 million dollars for the biodiesel producer. This profit, it should be noted does not take into account the ancillary sales of the other by-products.

Currently the technology is in the hands of Houston VC’s and a production facility is expect to be operational next year as “several” companies have contact Professor Gonzalez about using the process.

The U.S. biodiesel industry is expected to produce an estimated 1.4 billion pounds of glycerin valued at $289 million between 2006 and 2015, according to an economic study by John Urbanchuk, director of LECG Inc. According to projections gleaned from NBB estimates, the industry could produce as much as 200 million pounds this year alone.

This 200 million pounds would produce an additional 17 million gallons of ethanol this year, not a huge number, but it does make biodiesel production dramatically more profitable which will invariably lead to more producers entering the market.

Crude glycerin that once fetched between 20 and 25 cents per pound is now edging closer to 5 cents and lower. This is down from the high of $1.08 in 1996. The glut and pricing pressure have led Dow Chemical (DOW) to close it’s 150 million pound per year facility in Freeport, Texas.

Ethanol giant Archer Daniel’s (ADM) had previously put glycerin facility plans on hold at the turn of the century as prices collapsed. ADM will produce an estimated 250 mmgpy of biodiesel in the US by the end of 2008 which equates to 188 million pounds of glycerin. ADM could convert that to an additional 16 million gallons of ethanol and other by products for sale that it either now pays to dispose of or received very little n return for. This is only US production numbers, ADM is also Europe’s largest biodiesel producer.

Every time we get an alternative source of ethanol production, we widen the possibilities and lessen our dependence on oil. Good

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Top Stories VIN – June

First, my apologies for dropping the ball last week and not getting to this. Here are the top five stories as voted on my readers at Value Investing News

1- Remembering the Wisdom of Keynes and Twain Controlled Greed

2- Chipotle Mispricing Persists: Berkshire Ruminations

3- Fly, Don’t Buy Airlines: Contrarian Edge

4- PBS Interview with Nassim Taleb PBS

5- Monish Pabrai Interview: MSN Video

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This Weeks Insider Buys

Here are the largest insiders buys for the past week. As Peter Lynch once said “There are multiple reasons insiders sell shares but there is only one reason they buy, they think the stock price is going up”.

Company and aggregate dollar amount of insider purchases:

1- Biofuel Energy (BIOF) = $45,000,000

2- Franklin Bankcorp (FBTX) = $4,000,000

3- Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK) =$3,500,000

4- Micromet Inc (MITI) =$2,400,000

5- Occulogix Inc. (OCCX) =$2,000,000

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ValuePlays Most Read Posts For June

Here they are, the most read posts for the last 30 days.

1- Finally An Analyst Call That Makes Sense (SHLD)

2- Google: Overkill Reached 6 Months Ago

3- Lampert Buying More Sears Shares

4- Wal-Mart Getting Real Hard Not To Buy

5- Apple: iPhone Making All The Wrong Moves

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This Weeks Notable Dividend Hikes

Here are the notable dividend hikes for the week:

1- Neuberger Berman Real Estate(NRO)= 53%

2- Best Buy (BBY)= 30%

3- Felcor Lodging Trust (FCH)= 20%

4- Village Supermarket (VLGEA)= 16%

5- Peoples Financial Corp (PFBX)= 16%

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Today’s Upgrades / Downgrades

Here are the late Friday analyst calls:

Komag KOMG Caris & Company Below Average » Average

Apollo Group APOL BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform

Western Digital WDC Needham & Co Buy » Strong Buy

Heelys HLYS CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Outperform

Phillips-Van Heusen PVH Matrix Research Hold » Buy

Ralcorp Holdings RAH BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy

Diodes DIOD UBS Neutral » Buy

Research In Motion RIMM Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform

Solectron SLR RBC Capital Mkts Underperform » Sector Perform

Komag KOMG JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral

Ariba ARBA CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Underperform » Sector Outperform

DOWNGRADES:

Packeteer PKTR JMP Securities Mkt Perform » Mkt Underperform

Cascade CAE DA Davidson Neutral » Underperform

Omega Protein OME DA Davidson Buy » Neutral

Topps TOPP Wedbush Morgan Strong Buy » Buy

Rural/Metro RURL B. Riley & Co Buy » Neutral

Guitar Center GTRC Dougherty & Company Buy » Neutral

Ceragon CRNT Ferris Baker Watts Buy » Neutral

Pinnacle West PNW BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Underperform

Getty Images GYI Matrix Research Hold » Sell

Barnes & Noble BKS Matrix Research Buy » Hold

Endurance Specialty ENH Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold

Castle Brands ROX Oppenheimer Buy » Neutral

Corn Products CPO BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold

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NetFlix Answers Blockbuster

On June 13th I wrote in response Blockbuster’s (BBI) announcement they were cutting rental fees, “What happens if today Netflix (NFLX)comes out today and matches these new prices? It did not take very long as Netflix announced yesterday they lowering their prices to match those at Blockbuster.

Netflix is now charging $13.99 a month to rent up to two DVDs at a time, down from $14.99 previously. The service mails another DVD after subscribers return one of their other discs in postage-paid envelopes. This matches the plan Blockbuster announced three months ago. Blockbuster did say it plans to close 282 stores in the U.S. this year to improve operating margins and expand domestic share, according to a SEC filing.

So were are right where we were 3 weeks ago at Blockbuster except they have now voluntarily decreased their revenue. Revenue is not the main problem at Blockbuster, costs are. What would have made more sense was to leave the pricing where it was and accelerate the store closings. 282 stores, while a good start is just a drop in the bucket. They cannot compete with Netflix on price because their cost structure is just too high, reduce it, and they may have a chance. They are going about this backwards.

What is Blockbuster going to do now? Pay us to rent DVD’s from them?

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Today’s Upgrades / Downgrades

Here are today’s analyst calls

UPGRADES:

NetLogic NETL UBS =Buy

Fluor FLR JP Morgan =Overweight

Research In Motion RIMM JMP Securities =Market Outperform

Santarus SNTS Friedman Billings= Outperform

Fannie Mae FNM Citigroup= Buy

Research In Motion RIMM RBC Capital Mkts=Top Pick

DOWNGRADES:

PMI Group PMI UBS= Neutral

MGIC Investment MTG UBS =Neutral

American Home Mortgage AHM Friedman Billings =Underperform

TIM Participacoes TSU= Market Perform

Chordiant Software CHRD JMP Securities= Mkt Outperform

Komag KOMG Robert W. Baird =Neutral

Komag KOMG Deutsche Securities =Hold

Palm PALM Deutsche Securities= Sell

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Natural Gas Price Drop Will Boost Ethanol Profits

I think we have all read with nauseating frequency how high corm prices are shrinking margins for ethanol producers (the irony here is that these very same producers are reporting record results). What we have not read is how multi year low natural gas prices should provide another boost to earnings. Guess what, now you are.

August natural gas touched $6.68 per million British thermal units today (Thursday), the contract’s lowest level since late May of 2005. It was last down 5.7%, or 40.3 cents, at $6.68, after the Energy Department reported a bigger-than-expected rise in last week’s natural-gas supplies. During its tenure as the near-month contract, the futures contract for July delivery at the Henry Hub posted a decline of $1.012 per MMBtu or nearly 13 percent. Natural gas in storage was 2,443 Bcf as of June 22, which is 18 percent above the 5-year average (2002-2006).

Nearly 95 percent of U.S. ethanol distilleries use natural gas boilers. Citigroup analyst Gil Yang estimated 28 billion cubic feet of natural gas would be consumed for every one billion gallons of ethanol produced.

The cost of producing ethanol varies with the cost of the feedstock used and the scale of production. Approximately 85 percent of ethanol production capacity in the United States relies on corn feedstock. The cost of producing ethanol from corn is estimated to be about $1.10 per gallon. Although there is currently no commercial production of ethanol from cellulosic feedstocks such as agricultural wastes, grasses and wood, the estimated production cost using these feedstocks is $1.15 to $1.43 per gallon.

The second largest cost in ethanol production, second to corn is the cost of energy, generally natural gas. Energy costs typically make up about 15 percent of a dry-mill plant’s total costs. for large producers like ADM (ADM), Verasun (VSE), The Andersons (ANDE) and Pacific Ethanol (PEIX), the costs run well into the millions.

A glut of natural gas is expected on the market soon. So much in fact, Dow Chemical (DOW), a prolific user of the stuff is not signing any new natural gas contracts in the near future in anticipation of a “dramatic fall” in prices as large amounts of new production comes on line.

What does this mean for ethanol producers? It would appear we are at the peak of the cost cycle for them. A record corn harvest is coming in better than the most optimistic projections and this has caused corn prices to fall over 11% since their February highs. With natural gas falling and no real impetus to reverse that, we have declining input costs and with gas prices having no reason to fall, a steady or rising price for the finished product.

All in all a nice scenario.

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"Fast Money" 6/28

Here are today’s picks and results to date:

Today’s Picks

Macke- Ford (F) Open $9.49

Najarian- Immersion Corp (IMMR)Open $14.37

Adami- Dell (DELL). Open $28.45

Bolling- Chevron (CVX). Open $84.14

Yesterday’s Results:

Macke liked Petsmart Inc (PETM)= Open $32.59 Close $32.41 Loss $.18 and Guitar Center (GTRC)= Open $59.98 Close $59.81 Loss $.18

Najarian liked Dendreon Corp (DNDN)=Open $7.17 Close $7.29 Gain $.12

Adami- Research In Motion = (RIMM)= Open $163.45 Close $193.99 Gain $30.54

Bolling picked USEC Inc (USU)= Open $21.80 Close $21.89 Gain $.09

Records:

Since my tracking began on 6/21 (1-1 means one up pick and one down pick)

Adami= 2-4 Gain $29.14
Bolling= 3-3 Loss $1.63
Najarian= 4-2 Gain $1.62
Macke= 5-4 Gain $6.30
Seymore= 1-0 Gain $.35
Finerman= 0-1 Loss $.18