Some of Davidson’s best work….
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Category: Articles
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Private GDP Continues It’s Rise
GDP came in at 3% today despite two hurricanes……..that means we ought to see Q4 above 3% also as reconstruction begins. It’ll be the first time we’ve seen 3% plus growth for three consecutive quarters since before the financial crisis.
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Invest In Well Defined Behavior
“Davidson” submits:
You can’t forecast what you cannot see…or can you? People are more predictable than things.
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Subs: GSE Docs Hacked????
Fairholme just won a “quick peek” at GSE docs……. might we all get a peek soon?
Today’s jobs report showed a loss of US jobs. This is but hurricane induced a blipa All the underlying data continues to support a growing economy and thus equity markets.
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Dollar Rises As Capital Seeks Returns
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Rate Spread Positive for Equities
The 10yr/T-bill spread is telling a different story than the media….
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“Davidson”: Consensus v Reality
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The Dollar & Oil
Yesterday I posted video showing the minor flooding in The Woodlands and Bridgeland.
“Davidson” submits:
“Dr Copper” as an economic measure is becoming popular again, but where has it been the past 8yrs when the US economy has been in an uptrend since 2009 as shown by IndProd.
Commodity prices are priced in US$ globally and cycle pricing is more about the Trade Weighted US$ and global capital flows than anything else! Global capital flows are shifting back to Intl markets as the US$ foreign policy swings back towards support for Democratic institutions after a period of support withdrawal. The US$ is beginning to return to its long-term trend and commodity prices are rising as a result. Oil prices which normally rise during periods of political stress fell with North Korea’s threats as there was a brief period of capital flows back into the US seeking safety with the ‘saber rattling’. Now that fear of military action appears to be behind us, the US$ appears to be resuming its return to the long-term trend.
The fear inspired by the Russia’s Ukraine invasion, the rise of ISIS and global terrorism resulted in a sharp rise in US$ in 2014-2016. US foreign policy has begun to reassert global Democratic protections. As investors perceive this to be effective, we can expect the Trade Weighted US$ Major Currency Index to fall another 25% from current levels as global capital flows normalize.
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Equities Rise Should Continue……
“Davidson” submits:
Economic data and equity markets are highly correlated over time. The correlation is not day-to-day or even month-to-month as the media attempts to connect the dots on a daily basis, but over several years the connections become apparent. Along the way, there are many using market trends to predict the trend of the economy and the next few months, even days, of market prices.