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Wal-Mart Enters into JV In India

It seems that JV’s are really gaining popularity for US companies as a way to establish themselves in a new region at a minimal cost while gaining immediate acceptance as a “partner” in the new country. Wal-Mart (WMT), the world’s largest retailer, said today it’s establishing a 50% held joint venture with Bharti Enterprises for a wholesale cash-and-carry back-end suppy chain management operation in India. The first wholesale cash-and-carry facility is targeted to open by the end of next year and over the next seven years they expect to open 10 to 15 facilities and employ approximately 5,000. A typical location will stand between 50,000 and 100,000 square feet and sell a wide range of fruits and vegetables, groceries and staples, stationery, footwear, clothing, consumer durables and other general merchandise items.

The venture will invest in setting up an efficient supply chain by linking farmers and small manufacturers directly to retailers, maximizing value for farmers and manufacturers on the one end and retailers and consumers on the other. It will support farmers and small manufacturers who have limited infrastructure and distribution strength, and the supply chain will enable minimum wastage, particularly of fresh foods and vegetables.

“We are delighted to partner with Wal-Mart for wholesale cash-and-carry and back-end supply chain management operations in India,” said Sunil Bharti Mittal, Chairman and Group CEO, Bharti Enterprises. “Wal-Mart’s global expertise in supply chain and logistics will bring enhanced efficiencies across the retail ecosystem. This venture promises to bring great value to millions of farmers, artisans, small manufacturers and retailers across India. We are pleased to be a partner in developing this sector which is set to become a significant engine of India’s economic growth.”

Bharti Wal-Mart Private Limited will bring modern supply chain and back-end logistics to India, bringing Wal-Mart’s practices in such areas as just-in-time inventory, retail information systems, cold chain infrastructure, GPS for truck and trailer tracking, and fuel management systems. Additionally, Bharti Enterprises’ 100% subsidiary Bharti Retail, who will own and manage the retail stores, has entered into a franchise agreement with Wal-Mart which will provide technical support to Bharti Retail.

Wal-Mart is entering the Indian market through the back door so to speak. By partnering with a local ownership they are establishing themselves not as a foreign intruder looking to take business from locals, but as a well financed partner helping those locals improve their business and provide residents better services. The positive reception they will get cannot be understated. When Wal-Mart eventually opens retail location in India, they will already have years of positive exposure to the market. India is a massive market and success there will be very good for shareholders indeed.

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Banks Fight For Blackstone Business

Another quick look at the ratings for Blackstone Group indicate that despite all current indications to the contrary and the potential for massive tax increases on the company by a Democratic congress, big banks still will not piss off a potential big customer

Here is the list (updated as of Friday)

Credit Suisse (CS)= Outperform

Lehman (LEH)= Outperform

Morgan Stanley (MS)= Overweight

Merrill Lynch (MER)= Buy

Deutche Bank (DB)= Buy

Citigroup (C)= Buy

Bank Of America (BAC)= Buy

Wachovia (WAC)= MarketPerform

All great ratings for a company with a deteriorating business environment, tightening credit markets, political hostilities, and increasing competition.

I have to wonder that if Blackstone did not generate almost all it’s business through loans made by these very companies that generate billions in fees for the banks, would the ratings be so good? If they sold candy, had no real use for the banks and had the same current business environment, would they still be a “outperform”?

I do not think so either…

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Upgrades / Downgrades

Here are the late Friday and early Monday calls

UPGRADES

TD Ameritrade AMTD UBS Neutral » Buy
Merrill Lynch MER UBS Neutral » Buy
McMoRan Expl MMR JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
PG&E PCG Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Electronic Arts ERTS Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
AnnTaylor ANN DA Davidson Neutral » Buy
Insituform Tech INSU Canaccord Adams Sell » Hold
St. Mary Lnd/Expl SM KeyBanc Capital Mkts / McDonald Hold » Buy
Gulfmark Offshore GLF CapitalOne southcoast Hold » Buy
Telefonica S.A. TEF Lehman Brothers Underweight » Equal-weight
OdysseyRe ORH Ferris Baker Watts Neutral » Buy
Transocean RIG Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Ensco ESV Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Assured Guaranty AGO Calyon Securities Neutral » Buy
AMBAC Fincl ABK Calyon Securities Add » Buy
Amylin Pharms AMLN Cowen & Co Underperform » Neutral

DOWNGRADES

Luminent Mortgage Capital LUM JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
CheckFree CKFR JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Penn Va GP Hldgs PVG RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Independent Bank IBCP RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform IMPAC Mortgage IMH Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Nortel NT Charter Equity Buy » Mkt Perform
Ditech DITC First Albany Buy » Underperform
PNM Resources PNM RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform
Owens & Minor OMI Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Silicon Image SIMG Longbow Buy » Neutral
Portfolio Recovery Assoc. PRAA First Analysis Sec Overweight » Equal-Weight
Asset Acceptance Capital AACC First Analysis Sec Overweight » Equal-Weight
SPSS Inc SPSS Cowen & Co Neutral » Underperform
Radiation Therapy Services RTSX Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral

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Disney Responds To My Post

Apparently there may be some apprehension over at the “House of Mouse” about their recent purchase. I received an email from the VP of Corporate Communications “chastising” me for not calling Disney (DIS) first.

I have omitted the email addresses assuming those who really want to find them will be able to.

From: Spelich, John
Sent: Friday, August 03, 2007 4:25 PM
To: todd.sullivan1@gmail.com
Subject: Shame you didn’t call

Todd:

It’s a shame you wrote your column today on “Stockmasters” about Disney and Club Penguin without calling us so you could understand the steps we take to protect children online.

Disney is, and always has been, committed to creating a safe environment for kids and families online, and Club Penguin shares this commitment. We intend to immediately begin combining best practices from both companies to further enhance the safety of the Club Penguin experience, including the continued aggressive use of filtering and monitoring of the site’s chat function to prevent the sharing of personally identifiable information.

We are already the no. 1 destination on the web for kids and families with Disney.com (more than 20 million unique visitors a month). And we have had a similar multiplayer game, Toontown Online, in place for four years.

Sincerely,

John W. Spelich
Vice President — Corporate Communications
The Walt Disney Internet Group


My Reply

—– Original Message —–
From: Todd Sullivan
To: Spelich, John
Sent: Fri Aug 03 18:08:27 2007
Subject: RE: Shame you didn’t call

John,

I did not call because I have no doubt you are taking tremendous steps to eliminate a “worse case scenario” and I never alluded to the fact you may not be in the post. BUT, I doubt even you would claim “it cannot happen here”. My post is from a investing perspective and the downside here far outweighs the advantages of having it.

All the safeguards in the world cannot stop a committed pervert if they really want to find a way….

Sorry

His response to this was a simple “that’s not a good answer”. So, should I have called? No. Why? Because unless he can guarantee me “it cannot happen here” (he was given the chance and wisely did not do it) then my thesis stands that the risks this pose to the Disney brand far outweigh any potential bottom line increase it may produce.

Let assume Disney has gone far and above every other social networking site out there in it’s effort to protect children. I will go ahead in advance and grant them that they have and that the site is the safest out there. If history tells us anything and Mr. Spelich himself admitted through his omission of any answer to my statement, nothing is 100%. The Titanic sunk, the Jets and Joe Namath beat the Colts, the US hockey kids beat the Russians, the Red Sox came back 0-3 and beat the Yanks in the “House Ruth Built” and the Soviet Union did actually crumble under it’s own failures.

My point in the original post still stands that Disney can be 99.99999% perfect in this case and still lose, big time. All it will take is one singe example and as I told Mr. Spelich, “the 20/20’s and Dateline’s of the world will be all over you folks”. They will take the exception and lead us to believe it is either pervasive or “will happen to our kids” at any moment. It is what they do, make the oddities the norm for ratings. Whether it is right or wrong of them irrelevant in as much as that is what they do and the world we live in. Disney needs to recognize this. Their reputation will not get them a free pass here but just make them a bigger target. I can just see Dateline producers now sitting there setting up dummy accounts trying to lure kids so they can break the story and make the splashy headline.

I guess if we made a list like Ben Franklin used to do of “pro’s and con’s” of a decision, can there be enough “pro’s” for Disney to offset the potential “a pedophile meets and abuses a child through our site”?

I pray it never happens but based on the internet’s history in this area, they will be out there trying..

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"Fast Money" for Monday

Here are Friday’s results and Monday’s picks

Monday’s Picks

Karen Finerman liked Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) Open $60.34

Guy Adami preferred Tiffany & Co. (TIF) Open $48.52

Jon Najarian revealed he made a bet that Fed Chief Bernanke makes a surprise rate cut.

Jeff Macke said get long the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF). Open $32.06

Friday’s Results

Jeff Macke recommends buying Callaway Golf (ELY) on the dip. Open $15.67 Close $15.63 Loss $.04

Pete Najarian likes Juniper (JNPR) ahead of Cisco (CSCO) earnings. Open $32.55 close $31.23 Loss $1.32

Guy Adami and Eric Bolling didn’t have any stock picks.

Since my tracking began on 6/21 (1-1 means one up pick and one down pick and no results from my vacation week)

Adami= 10-9 Gain $26.22
Bolling= 8-9 Loss $4.16
John Najarian= 13-3 Gain $15.54
Macke= 17-11 Gain $6.34
Pete Najarian= 6-6 Gain $16.98
Seymore= 1-1 Gain $.01
Finerman= 1-2 Gain $.68
Gilbert= 1-0 Gain $.29

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Last Week’s Insider Buys & One Huge Sell

In a down week, here are the companies that had insiders step up top the plate and buy shares.

Jefferies Group (JEF)= $9,821,000

Gatehouse Media (GHS)= $6,310,000

Thornburg Mortgage (TMA)= $5,996,000

Equity One (EQY)= $5,356,000

Encore Bancshares (EBTX)= $3,620,000

Johnson Controls (JCI)= $2,400,000

On another note, did anyone out there notice Bill Gates sold $156,120,000 of Microsoft (MSFT) last week?

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Notable Dividend Increases Last Week

Here are the increases of note from last week.

Garmin (GRMN)= 50%

Molex (MOLX)= 50%

Amerigas Partners (APU)= 41%

Entergy (ETR)= 38%

Illinois Tools Works (ITW)= 33%

Harleysville Group (HGIC)= 31%

Murphy Oil (MUR)= 25%

Landstar System (LSTR)= 25%

Church & Dwight (CHD)= 14%

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Top Stories at VIN for July

Here are the top stories for the month of July at Value Investing News.

1- Best 3 Investments Over The Past Year

2- Valuing Tyco Spinoffs

3- Value Creation or Destruction.

4- Risk Arbitrage

5- Biggest Losers of Today’s Stock Market Panic

Please visit this wonderful site here

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ValuePlays Most Read Posts for July

Here are the most read posts for the month of July

1- Macy’s Into Sears Holdings?

2- Sears Holdings: If Lampert Is Buying more, Shouldn’t We?

3- Mohnish Pabrai Interview

4- Buffett and Johnson & Johnson

5- Another Mystifying Analyst Call: Starbucks

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DOW Looking To Enter Russian Market

Dow Chemical (DOW) is looking for a Russian partner to construct a petrochemical plant in Russia.

Gazprom has been indicated as a possible partner in the plant construction. DOW representatives note that Russia currently produces less ethylene than any of Dow Chemical’s plants around the world. Last year Dow’s turnover in Russia and CIS countries totaled $530 million. Current rates of growth of the Company’s Russian business exceed 30%.

In January, DOW started up its first ever production facility in Russia. The plant, located at Kryukovo, outside Moscow, will produce STYROFOAM™ brand extruded polystyrene (XPS) insulation boards for Dow Building Solutions, one of Dow’s market-facing business units.

Now, doing business with Russia has proven to be a bit risky, but for 30% growth, there is a price to do it. Not only that, but to be the first there with a major facility would be a major coup.

In Q3 DOW has said they will produce a “white paper” on the progress and outlooks for their multitude of JV’s around the world. This is a much anticipated event and it will be a huge catalyst for the company and by default, it’s stock price. It will detail expected future earnings from the JV’s going forward. On another note, a birdy tells me to look for another dividend increase or an additional share repurchase announcement around the same time.

The end of the current “commodity cycle” is expected to be around the turn of the century and typically in the past, DOW has seen earning plummet during these times. It is no coincidence the the huge JV’s in Saudi Arabia and Brazil are scheduled to come on line at that time to counter the expected earnings fall.

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Disney Buys Club Penquin…… Asking for Trouble?

It was announced this week that Disney (DIS) had purchased the children’s social networking site “Club Penguin”. My initial reaction was that it was a good idea but, something just did not sit right with me.

After more thought it hit me. I wonder if Disney has considered how this may possibly backfire? The news a few weeks ago that there were 29,000 convicted sex offenders on News Corp.’s (NWS) MySpace that were using there own names tell us that the internet and social networking sites are the “playgrounds” of the 70’s and 80’s for pedophiles.

Now, admittedly the Disney Penguin site is not as well known as Myspace but now that Disney is the new owner, that will change. I am sure that Disney has plans for the Penguin to become THE social site for youngsters and with that comes the inevitable problems of this century.

I am also sure that Disney will take extra precautions to ensure pedophiles do not use their own names but if one wants to become anonymous in today’s age, they can easily pretend they are a 6 year old.

Because it is now a Disney site, expectations for safety will be far greater and a single problem will instantly become an enormous issue. Any issue with the site will rub off on the theme parks. People will begin to wonder, “if the pedophiles are on the site, are they in the parks also”? Personally, as the father of three it will be a cold day in hell before any of my kids spend time on any of these sites, but millions of children are daily and shows like “To Catch A Predator” on Dateline should illustrate the depth pedophiles will go to meet children.

Disney is in a tough place with this one. If the site becomes very popular and profitable it will attract the sickos, if it doesn’t it was wasted money.

I have a feeling Disney will regret this one….

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CSX: A Great Buy For An Odd Reason

Over year ago my sons and I were waiting at the train station in Worcester, MA for a family member to come for a visit. My kids, who were three and thought Thomas The Tank Engine was (and still is) the coolest thing in the world wanted to leave early that day so they could watch the freight trains in the rail yard. After about 45 minutes of watching I struck up a conversation with the rail worker waiting for the next train to arrive.

He said that in his 15 years there it had “never been this busy” and that there are days that the trains are just lined up trying to get in to get through to various points in New England. I asked him if this was just a local issue and he said that his friends in other areas along the CSX (CSX) line reported the same issues. “It is just crazy everywhere” he claimed.

When I asked him why there were tractor trailers on the train cars he said “it is cheaper to haul them by train and then just move them locally”. Why? I asked. “Gas” he said in a word. “As long as gas stays high, it will cost too much to ship by truck and we will haul it all”. Bingo…

I asked my kids “if they wanted to buy part of the train company” and after they finished jumping up and down for joy, we went back home that day and bought CSX shares for their education accounts at $23 a share. Just to see their faces, I let them push the “buy” button and laughed as they jumped and clapped as the screen changed. I wanted to teach them about “ownership” and how the business world around them functions and yes I know they were only 3 at the time but even basic lessons are good ones, no?

I figured gas prices were not coming down anytime soon and if anyone new anything this guy would. I dismissed the historical “railroads suck cash” commentary and figured that were were entering a un-historic phase in the US pertaining to gas prices and the use of railroads for biofuels (ethanol). Quick research disclosed that any ethanol into the eastern US was shipped almost exclusively by CSX. That alone would dramatically boost volume. I figured that alone would boost pricing and earnings which would leave extra money for repurchases or dividend increases since building new railroads was probably not in the cards. I did not look into “discounted future cash flows”, beta, I did not do a chart analysis or look at earnings 10 years ago to the present, nor did I check to see what Wall St. analyst’s felt on the subject.

Well, almost a 100% return in a year and a half would prove that rail worker very correct indeed. In their most recent quarter, CSX produced record earnings and stated pricing and financial results looks to remain strong through the end of the decade. They are also in the process of repurchasing over 15% of the outstanding shares and have tripled the dividend. Word then came out in March 2007 that Carl Icahn, George Soros and David Dremen had all taken large stakes in the company. Maybe they spoke to the same rail worker?

Come to think of it, I bought them shares in McDonalds (MCD) for very similar reasons in 2003 and that has worked out spectacularly also with shares now sitting near their all time high.

Maybe simply listening to the people who are intimately involved with the operations and looking at macro factors is not the “wrong way” after all but the “right way”?

I think I am going to get Peter Lynch’s book. Anyone read it?

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Upgrades / Downgrades

Here are the late Thursday’s and Friday’s analyst calls

UPGRADES

KBR Inc. KBR Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Eagle Bulk Shipping EGLE Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Timberland TBL UBS Reduce » Neutral
DaVita DVA Piper Jaffray Underperform » Market Perform
Entercom ETM Banc of America Sec Sell » Neutral
Advanced Medical Optics EYE Citigroup Sell » Hold
ONEOK Partners OKS Citigroup Hold » Buy
Network Appliance NTAP Citigroup Hold » Buy
NRG Energy NRG RBC Capital Mkts Underperform » Sector Perform
Harleysville Grp HGIC Ferris Baker Watts Neutral » Buy
Comp Vale Do Rio RIO Canaccord Adams Hold » Buy
Barnes & Noble BKS CL King Neutral » Strong Buy
Gen-Probe GPRO Ferris Baker Watts Neutral » Buy
Blackboard BBBB Wedbush Morgan Hold » Buy
Cleveland-Cliffs CLF Longbow Neutral » Buy
General Maritime GMR Cantor Fitzgerald Hold » Buy
O2Micro OIIM Needham & Co Buy » Strong Buy
Fred’s FRED Avondale Partners Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform
Smith Micro Software SMSI Rodman & Renshaw Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform
Gasco Energy GSX Nokia NOK Davenport Strong Buy » Neutral
CGI Group GIB BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform


DOWNGRADES

Alliance Bankshares ABVA Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Revlon REV Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
POZEN POZN Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Gulfmark Offshore GLF Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Clorox CLX Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight
Nokia NOK Davenport Strong Buy » Neutral
CGI Group GIB BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Reliv’ International, Inc RELV Canaccord Adams Buy » Hold
Kyphon KYPH Lazard Capital Buy » Hold
Getty Images GYI McAdams,Wright,Ragen Buy » Hold
RC2 RCRC Wedbush Morgan Strong Buy » Buy
Autodesk ADSK Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Chipotle Mexican Grill CMG Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
Liquidity Services LQDT Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Alliance Resource ARLP Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Alliance Holdings AHGP Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
U.S. Steel X Matrix Research Strong Buy » Buy
Norfolk Southern NSC Matrix Research Strong Buy » BuyWachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform

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"Fast Money" for Friday

Here are Thursday’s results and Friday’s picks.

Friday’s picks

Jeff Macke recommends buying Callaway Golf (ELY) on the dip. Open $15.67

Pete Najarian likes Juniper (JNPR) ahead of Cisco (CSCO) earnings. Open $32.55

Guy Adami and Eric Bolling didn’t have any stock picks.


Thursday’s results

Jeff Macke said Starbucks (SBUX) is a sell. Open $27.60 Close $26.92 Gain $.68

Pete Najarian liked St. Jude Medical (STJ). Open $44.81 Close $45.35 Gain $.54

Guy Adami recommended buying Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) Open $59.50 Close $58.96 Loss $.54

Eric Bolling liked El Paso Corp (EP) Open $16.81 Close $16.67 Loss $.14

Records:

Since my tracking began on 6/21 (1-1 means one up pick and one down pick and no results from my vacation week)

Adami= 10-9 Gain $26.22
Bolling= 8-9 Loss $4.16
John Najarian= 13-3 Gain $15.54
Macke= 17-10 Gain $6.34
Pete Najarian= 6-5 Gain $18.30
Seymore= 1-1 Gain $.01
Finerman= 1-2 Gain $.68
Gilbert= 1-0 Gain $.29

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Today’s 52 Week Low List

Homebuilders actually escaped the list for the first day in a month. But, regional banks are still get whacked. Here are some others…

THLD Threshold Pharmaceuticals
TBL The Timberland Company
TAST Carrols Restaurant Group
RCRC Rc2 Corp
NCOC National Coal Corp
MNI McClatchy Newspapers, Inc
KCP Kenneth Cole Productions
JRC Journal Register Co
JMBA Jamba Inc
BSET Bassett Furniture Industries
BIOF Biofuel Energy Corp