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Citigroup Radioshack Downgrade: Are You Kidding?

Here is another one that just has me shaking my head. Citigroup analyst Bill Sims downgraded Radioshack (RSH) to “Sell” from “Hold” and said RadioShack’s wireless business remains pressured and is not likely to rebound soon because of declining market share and other factors. He said RadioShack is losing market share to direct channel retailers such as Sprint Nextel (N), Verizon (VZE), and Cingular (T).

“With the direct channel finding it more profitable to sell phones through their own stores than through RadioShack, they are increasingly opening stores next to Radio Shack with better merchandising, contracts, etc. and winning share as a result,” Sims wrote in a client note.

OK, all that is logical stuff and you can agree with it or not but the logic is there. Here were the head shaking comes in:

Sims cut his price target for the company from $32 to $20. How? How can you make am almost 40% reduction in your target price based on one earnings call that had, by the way the company swing from a 2 cent loss a year ago to a 34 cent gain and nothing announced that was not already really known? What is different about Radioshack today from yesterday or the day before? Nothing

This stuff mystifies me and is the reason these folks should be ignored when they talk stock prices.

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New Goldman Sachs Debt Fund A Good Sign

In what may be a sign of a bottom, the Wall St. Journal reported Friday that Goldman Sachs (GS) is launching a $20 billion fund to invest in corporate debt, taking advantage of a turmoil in credit markets.

The fund was expected to be $12 billion but has been increased, the paper said, citing the typical unnamed sources. It has good company as a slew of hedge funds have been jumping on debt the past week as the “credit” crunch has lead to spectacular deals to be had. It is ironic as the talking heads on TV are pondering the effects of “tightening credit” on business when, at the same time, groups intimately familiar with the action are buying that very debt as fast as they can get their hands on it.

Sounds like the TV folks may be behind the curve here and the “issue” has already come and gone?

In another note, can anyone, anyone at all out there attempt to explain to me how a company like Goldman can trade for LESS than 9 times current earnings and LESS than 9 times next years? How? Can anyone please give me a reasonable explanation?

Goldman is by far the cream of the crop of the the investment bankers / brokers, almost no deal gets done out there that they do not have their hands in somehow. What is the logic to the current valuation? The current mortgage situation? Please, that barely qualifies as a blip on the screen for a company like Goldman. It isn’t like they are Citigroup (C) that has had operational issues and it is not clear if they have totally solved them or a Bank of America (BAC) that is really tied to the US consumer. Goldman is firing on all cylinders and in all reality is not even totally tied to the US market as over 50% of its profits come from overseas operations and the last I checked, foreign economies were simply on fire.

I think financials, and Goldman in particular may end up being the ValuePlays of the year when all is said and done 12 months from now. Goldman is a screaming buy at these levels..

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US Lead Paint Litigation Update

File this under “everything you wanted to know about lead paint litigation is the US but where afraid top ask”. It updates litigation against Sherwin Williams (SHW), NL Industries (NL) and now RC2 Corp. (RCRC), the makers of the Thomas The Tank Engine children’s toys that were recently recalled to to lead pain. Again, thank to Jane Genova.

Full text here

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"Fast Money" For Tuesday

Here are Tuesday’s picks:

No specific “fast money” picks for today.

Monday’s Results

Stacey Briere Gilbert recommended buying Intel (INTC) Open $23.54 Close $23.85 Gain $.29

Guy Adami liked NVIDIA (NVDA)Open $44.25 Close $45.49 Gain $1.19

Pete Najarian preferred shares of NASDAQ Stock Market (NDAQ) Open $31.18 Close $30.90 Loss $.28

Jeff Macke told investors to get long Disney (DIS) Open $33.74 close $34.01 Gain $.27

Records:

Since my tracking began on 6/21 (1-1 means one up pick and one down pick and no results from my vacation week)

Adami= 9-8 Gain $26.18
Bolling= 8-8 Loss $4
John Najarian= 13-3 Gain $15.54
Macke= 16-9 Gain $5.76
Pete Najarian=4-5 Gain $17.18
Seymore= 1-1 Gain $.01
Finerman= 1-2 Gain $.68
Gilbert= 1-0 Gain $.29

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Upgrades / Downgrades

Here are the late Monday and early Tuesday’s analyst calls

UPGRADES

CH Energy CHG Soleil Sell » Hold
FirstEnergy FE Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Mortons Restaurant Group MRT RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
ABM Industries ABM Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
Varian Semi VSEA Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
Cameco CCJ CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Outperform
Darling International Inc DAR Avondale Partners Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform
Ballard Power BLDP Ardour Capital Reduce » Hold
ValueClick VCLK Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
MTS Systems MTSC Ferris Baker Watts Neutral » Buy
Gorman-Rupp Company GRC Boenning & Scattergood Market Perform » Market Outperform
Weyerhaeuser WY DA Davidson Neutral » Buy
Smurfit-Stone SSCC DA Davidson Underperform » Neutral
MicroStrategy MSTR First Analysis Sec Equal-Weight » Overweight
Goodrich GR Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperfor

DOWNGRADES

American Reprographics ARP Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
Energy Transfer ETP UBS Neutral » Reduce
Unilever PLC UL Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform
Double Hull Tankers DHT JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Intevac IVAC Piper Jaffray Outperform » Market Perform
RadioShack RSH Citigroup Hold » Sell
Cobra Electronics COBR Northland Securities Outperform » Market Perform
Foot Locker FL Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
MC Shipping MCX Cantor Fitzgerald Buy » Hold
ValueClick VCLK JMP Securities Strong Buy » Mkt Perform
Symbion SMBI RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
QLogic QLGC Needham & Co Buy » Hold
Chartered Semi CHRT JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Children’s Place PLCE Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral

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Today’s 52 Week Lows

Here is today’s list. REIT’s are now joining homebuilders and financials as daily participants.

TUES Tuesday Morning Corp
TRMP Trump Entmt Resorts Inc
POP Pope & Talbot, Inc
PNY Piedmont Natural Gas
THC Tenet Healthcare Corp
STMP Stamps Com Inc
ODP Office Depot, Inc
NI Nisource Inc
MOT Motorola, Inc
HDL Handleman Company
GMCR Green Mountain Coffee Inc
FL Foot Locker Inc
DF Dean Foods Co New

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ADM Earnings: Investments Pay Off

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) released results today and reported earnings of $954.8 million, or $1.47 a share, up from net income of $410.3 million, or 62 cents a share in 2006. Results included gains on asset sales of $616 million in oilseeds processing and agricultural services.

Net sales rose 28% to $12.21 billion, topping analysts’ prediction of $10.13 billion. Corn processing operating profit fell 16% to $241.3 million and the company cited lower ethanol sales volume and higher net corn costs as the culprits.

Oilseeds processing operating profit more than tripled to $587.2 million, boosted by a gain on the exchange of the company’s interests in several Chinese JV’s for shares in Wilmar International, the largest ag processing business in Asia. Agricultural services operating profit nearly tripled to $240.8 million due to a gain on the sale of the company’s Agricore United investment.

ADM repurchased $533 million worth of shares during the year.

So, what to think? About what I expected in corn processing and oil seed processing and good news on the asset sales. ADM clearly want to expand into Brazil to produce ethanol. They are doing everything except issuing a press release stating as such. The assets sales are giving ADM the funds they need to make that investment without a significant jump in debt, always a good thing. Now that these gains are booked and in the bank, I would look for action in Brazil soon.

Another positive sign is the 28% jump in sales. A real good sign. Corn prices are what they are as these prices are contracted and locked in before the crops go in the ground. ADM will see the benefit of this year’s record crop in the fall and winter contracts they sign for next year. This will significantly lower input costs and boost profits going forward.

Additional capacity begins to come on line this fall which will add to profits also. The ND biodiesel plant just came on line and the Rhondopolis, Brazil biodiesel plant will commence operations in August. The fall of 2008 will bring additional ethanol capacity in Iowa and Nebraska that will expand current capacity by 50%.

All in all an unspectacular quarter but one that has the company perfectly situated to execute it plans for the future, that is a very good thing.

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A Buffett Primer

The business editor of US News & World Report, James Pethokoukis sent me and email over the weekend alerting me to a special they put out on Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett. It is entitled “Making Money The Buffett Way”.

Here are the table on contents:

1) The Ultimate Guide to Investing like Warren Buffett

2) Six Keys to Investing Like Buffett

3) From Nothing to $52 Billion: A Buffett Timeline

4) Berkshire After Buffett — Buy, Sell, Hold

5) Buffettesque Fund Managers

6) The Anti-Buffett

You can read all the pieces here.

It is a great introduction to Buffett and the time line piece is really neat. However, hard core Buffett devotees will not find anything new in the pieces but despite that, I think it is an excellent accumulation of Buffett information and well worth the read.

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Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades

Here are this mornings analyst calls

UPGRADES

MicroStrategy MSTR First Analysis Sec Equal-Weight » Overweight
Goodrich GR Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Ashworth ASHW B. Riley & Co Neutral » Buy
Kinder Morgan Prtnrs KMP AG Edwards Hold » Buy
Leapfrog LF Wedbush Morgan Sell » Hold
Atheros Communications ATHR AG Edwards Hold » Buy
Turkcell TKC Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
Transalta TAC RBC Capital Mkts Underperform » Sector Perform
Exxon Mobil XOM AG Edwards Hold » Buy
McAfee MFE WR Hambrecht Hold » Buy
American Axle AXL Soleil Sell » Hold
Fortune Brands FO Barrington Research Mkt Perform » Outperform
XM Satellite XMSR Janco Partners Mkt Perform » Buy
FNB CORPORATION (VA) FNBP Janney Mntgmy Scott Sell » Neutral
Granite Constr GVA Davenport Neutral » Buy

DOWNGRADES

Symbion SMBI RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
QLogic QLGC Needham & Co Buy » Hold
Chartered Semi CHRT JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Children’s Place PLCE Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
American Home Mortgage AHM JMP Securities Mkt Perform » Mkt Underperform $8
American Home Mortgage AHM RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform

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US Market Cheapest vs Earnings Since 1991: A Lot Of Irony Here

Here is one for those of you who like irony. The S&P 500 currently trades for 15.4 times future earnings according to a Bloomberg report. That means that on a earnings basis (and isn’t that what really counts?), the US market has not been this cheap in 16 years!!

I guess that explains why Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett has been initiating and adding to positions left and right recently. Now, about the irony part?

1991- We had a Bush family member in the White House
1991- We had a housing “bust”
1991- We were in a war in Iraq
1991- In April 1991, the Dow Jones Industrials crossed 3,000 for the first time ever. In 2007, the Dow crossed 14,000 for the first time ever.
1991- A Clinton announces their intention to run for the White House.
1991- Dick Cheney served the President (Secretary of Defense)
1991- The S&P crossed 400 for the first time ever. The S&P hit a record 1555 in July of 2007
1991- Court bars Jack Kevorkian from assisting in suicides. 2007, Kevorkian released from prison
1991 -Exxon (XOM) agrees to pay $1 billion to clean up after Exxon Valdez spill. In May, 2007, Exxon said it will appeal to Supreme Court a $2.5 billion punitive damage award from the spill.
1991- Pete Metzelaars is in a Super Bowl as tight end for Buffalo Bills. In 2007. Metzelaar is a coach for the Indianapolis colts

The good news? The bargain prices investors paid in 1991 lead to barrels of profits over the next decade and stocks embarked on a historic steady climb. What is interesting is that even though stocks in 1991 were at “all time record highs” and there was a war going on, because they were cheap relative to their earnings, they proved to have plenty of room to run to the upside and they did just that.

I have said it here before many times, ign ore the “noise” out there and just focus on earnings, buy cheap stocks, and hold on to them. It is a winners game.

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Starbucks at $22? Maybe lower….

I got a great question to my recent Starbucks (SBUX) post last week.

Here is the question: Matthew asked, “Earlier you wrote that SBUX is a matter of price for you, and you mentioned the $22 level as the highest you’d pay. Does this news make your price go lower? Or were you already discounting the fact that having screwed up already, they’re likely to screw up some more?”

This got me to thinking, is my $22 target actually too high? To date, none of the moves Starbucks had made since the beginning of the year have worked and I strongly feel the recent price increase will backfire on them in a major way. The bottom line for them is store traffic and that is falling fast. I cannot think of a retail situation in the past in which raising prices increased foot traffic to a location.

$22 may end up being just a way point downward from here. I know Starbucks fans out there are coughing up their latte’s but they did the same thing early this year when the stock was trading north of $35 and I said it was just way overpriced. If anything, things have only deteriorated for the company since then and I cannot see any light at the end of the tunnel right now. Costs are rising and look to stay there, the competition is getting more fierce, people are becoming very price conscious and the lack of convenience Starbucks offers is becoming a larger issue now that the competition offers a quality substitute with the convenience. All these add up to more headwinds to earnings going forward.

What should Starbucks do? Much like many people feel Citigroup (C) shares would jump if CEO Chuck Prince was let go, I would expect the same from Starbucks shares should CEO Jim Donald be ask to seek “other opportunities”. Founder Howard Schultz’s support of the CEO is noble but it is a bit like standing next to the captain of the Titanic and telling him “things will be ok”.

They are not and do not look to get better any time soon.

Supporters will point to the recent announcement with Hershey (HSY) as proof the company is moving in the right direction. But, my opinion is that this is just another move further in the wrong direction. They only industry that is seeing prices skyrocket and industry fundamentals deteriorating faster is the chocolate business. They have gotten so bad that makers have petitioned the FDA to let them call a substantially cheaper substance called “mocklet” chocolate. Does this means we will be buying a “double mocklet latte”?

They will then point to the “overseas” expansion but to date is has been a bit of a mess. Plans into India were shelved this week and their entry into China’s “Forbidden City” was a unmitigated disaster and a huge PR flop for the company. We need to scale back our expectations here. Just because they are huge in the US does not mean a billion tea drinking Chinese will run to them. Just ask WalMart (WMT) about expansion in other countries, it is not alway just a matter of “if you build it, they will come”.

Now, stop frothing and relax, Starbucks is not going under nor will it become irrelevant, nor am I saying “it sucks”. I actually think it is a great company but even great companies go astray and make moves (or have CEO’s) that hurt performance. That being said, earnings growth is going to slow dramatically and paying 35 times that slowing growth, well, will be a losing game.

Starbucks reports earnings Wednesday, August 1st. Want a prediction? They will miss, or, if they hit, it will be due to some creative number crunching (nothing illegal, or another huge unsustainable share repurchase like in Q1)If they meet expectations and that is a major “if” I would expect them to guide earnings lower or at the very bottom of estimates for the rest of the year. Now for those of us who do not own shares, a miss and a decimation of shares into the high teens might just be the catalyst to get changes made that turn this thing around.

The earnings call will be infinitely more important than the numbers they release in telling us plans or at least the though process they have. A word of caution, Starbucks has not been very forthcoming or honest with shareholders up to this point so to expect much may leave you disappointed. Stay tuned..

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Interview With The Legal Blog "Law and More"

I recently did an interview with Jane Genova for here blog “Law and More” . As far as I am concerned Jane’s blog is at the forefront of anything lead paint. Interested parties could easily spend an entire day there educating themselves on the lead paint and public nuisance areas of law. Our interview focused on the investing aspects of the litigation on companies like Sherwin Williams (SHW), DuPont (DD) and NL Industries (NL). The full text is below and can be read on her blog here. The interview was also referenced by Walter Olson at the Manhattan Institutes’s blog “Point of Law”.

It’s the stock price, stupid – along with hits to brandname, the distraction from operations, and the actual legal expenses of being ensnared in a lawsuit. These are the reasons business in the U.S. and increasingly now in Europe factor in liability risk into everything from their accounting to where they will locate a new facility [think Nissan and Toyota’s eventual decision to build plants in a tort-reformed Mississippi].

Because of the importance of this matter, I am providing readers with an exclusive interview with financial-markets expert Todd Sullivan. In addition to being a frequent commentator on this blog, Sullivan contributes his financial assessments to, among others, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL and FORBES. He publishes VALUE PLAYS, which is morphing into the go-to site for investors and the investment community.

JG: In myriad ways, the threat of litigation itself costs public companies. Do you know how some of these costs can be reduced? Does settling rather than going to court tend to put a lid on those costs?

TS: When the federal government is involved, it seems that settling may be the only option if for no other reason than the limitless pockets and the ability to pursue the litigation from all angles until it is exhausted. When we drop to the state government and individual plaintiffs, the only recourse is to fight.

Had the lead paint litigation happened prior to the asbestos cases, we may have avoided bankruptcies at USG, Owens Corning, WR Grace and dozens of others due to that litigation. The resources of state government and private plaintiffs can be exhausted or future litigation can be discouraged by the ferocity of the fight by defendants. This is what we are seeing currently with lead paint. After the Rhode Island victory it would seem that the plaintiffs had a false sense of future victories and that the defendants stiffened their resolve, as well as learned from their defeat and honed their strategies. As I assess the lead paint public nuisance litigation situation, I see that the tide has turned.

JG: As a value investor, are you attracted to or turned off by public companies which have a record for settling?

TS: Had the lead paint defendants even broached the word “settlement,” an avalanche of suits would have followed that would have bankrupted them. I have no doubt about that. The ferocity of their fight has essentially discouraged additional suits being filed and has lead to several localities dropping suits.

Jane, settling local or private litigation is an admission of guilt in the eyes of the public. The only time settling is acceptable is to stop federal charges as there is really no limit to how far the government can push a case. In this instance, settling is not seen as an admission of guilt but as “a cost of doing business” because, as a group, the government seems to be trusted less than business.

Many people have had dealings with federal, state or local government over myriad issues and settling usually seems to be the best resource for most individuals. For business it is no different. There is a sense of being powerlessness against the government when it decides you are guilty. So, businesses are usually not penalized in public perception for acting in a way that depicts these feelings and putting the issue to bed, so to speak.

JG: In your opinion, how was Sherwin-Williams able to protect its share price during the prolonged lead paint public nuisance litigation?

TS: Sherwin-Williams separated its situation from the tobacco and asbestos mass tort cases. Comparisons were drawn immediately by the investment community and Sherwin-Williams was careful to distance itself from that litigation. It did so by educating the public about the differences in the kinds of litigation. Moreover, it explained in detail and kept reinforcing the local government’s roles in the “nuisance.” In addition, it downplayed the potential significance of the litigation.

Sherwin-Williams was careful in its earnings calls to ever so briefly summarize the litigation and then continue on to its results and plans for the future which included expansion and growth. There was no talk of “setting aside reserves” for the litigation of anything that would have lead people to believe they anticipated either ultimately losing or settling. At no time did Sherwin-Williams act as a company which even believed for a minute it may ultimately be liable.

JG: What advice would you give public companies about preventing being sued or what to do when sued?

TS: Fight, fight, fight. The tide is slowly turning against mass tort litigation and the longer and harder the fight, the odds are greater that other potential litigates will stay away.

Read more about Jane Genova here

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"Fast Money" Picks For Monday

Here are tomorrow picks and Friday’s results

Stacey Briere Gilbert recommended buying Intel (INTC) Open $23.54

Guy Adami liked NVIDIA (NVDA)Open $44.25

Pete Najarian preferred shares of NASDAQ Stock Market (NDAQ) Open $31.18

Jeff Macke told investors to get long Disney (DIS) Open $33.74

FRIDAY’S RESULTS

Jeff Macke recommended buying Costco (COST),Open $59.09 Close $58.57 Loss $.52

Pete Najarian likes Myriad Genetics (MYGN). Open $39.43 Close $38.46 Loss $.97

Guy Adami preferred Dell (DELL) because their PC shipments are up 12% year over year.Open $28.49 Close $27.81 Loss $.68

Eric Bolling said Goldman Sachs (GS) is a buy, Open $194.77 Close $192.65 Loss $2.12

Records:

Since my tracking began on 6/21 (1-1 means one up pick and one down pick and no results from my vacation week)

Adami= 8-8 Gain $24.99
Bolling= 8-8 Loss $4
John Najarian= 13-3 Gain $15.54
Macke= 15-9 Gain $5.49
Pete Najarian=4-4 Gain $17.38
Seymore= 1-1 Gain $.01
Finerman= 1-2 Gain $.68

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Top Stories This Week AT Value Investing News

Here they are. please visit the site at www.valueinvestingnews.com

1- Today’s Biggest Market Losers

2- Should You Follow Marty Whitman Into Handelman?

3- Mohnish Pabrai- Additional Answers


4- Expedia Tender Offer


5- Getting Ready To Strangle Apple

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The Lunacy of Regulators

At the end of last year Owens corning (OC) and St. Gobain announced a joint venture for the production of composite materials. It was going to be 60 /40 owned by OC and either company had the option to buy out the other’s interest in 4 years and OC indicated that they would most likely eventually exercise that option.

The plan ran into hurdles with EU regulators and both companies withdrew their application earlier this year. The objections of the regulators was never really made clear.

So, in order to satisfy them, OC is selling it’s siding business to St. Gobain for $371 million and then turning around and buying St. Gobain’s composite business for $640 million. Can anyone tell me what has been accomplished? How is this any different than before and why are regulators now satisfied?

It seems that EU regulators just needed something to do so they thought they would make the two companies alter an agreement to do the same thing another way. At the end of the day OC got rid of a siding business they have been trying to sell for almost a year now and with those funds they were able to finance the purchase of a composite business they had every intention of buying anyway. The regulators must have wanted to accomplish something, I just for the life of me cannot figure out what. It need to be point out that neither business was a world leader in either siding or composite so it did not have a monopoly issues attached top it.

Maybe just a slow Monday at the EU regulators office?

Who knows, but the deal is good for OC. composite sales are exploding around the globe and this deal ads 40% to OC composite sales that are growing organically at double digit rates. “This is a transformational acquisition for Owens Corning,” said Dave Brown, Owens Corning president and chief executive officer. “This acquisition expands Owens Corning’s footprint around the world and strengthens our position in key markets such as Russia, China, India, Mexico and Brazil. It also brings talented people and proven technology to Owens Corning, and it balances our exposure to the cyclical downturns associated with the residential construction market in North America. Composite Solutions is a core business at Owens Corning and we are committed to its continued growth.”

“Glass fiber markets are global, diverse and growing at two-times global GDP,” said Mike Thaman, Owens Corning chairman and chief financial officer. He continued, “This strategic acquisition extends our global reach to commercial and industrial markets of interest and expands our global presence in a capital- efficient way that adds near- and long-term value to shareholders.”

Chuck Dana, the president of Owens Corning Composite Solutions business, said, “This acquisition will accelerate the ability of Owens Corning to grow with our customers in both developed and high-growth emerging markets.

It is a great deal for OC, just a mystifying regulator intervention.