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More on Ackman/Target….Since When Is 3.5% < 3.3%??

Am I missing something here? After reading the headlines yesterday one would believe Bill Ackman reduced his ownership stake in Target. I don’t see it. Let’s look…

Here is the applicable portion of his SEC filing:

Item 4 of the Schedule 13D is hereby supplemented as follows:
As of May 26, 2009, the date of the last amendment to this Schedule 13D, the Reporting Persons beneficially owned approximately 7.8% of the then outstanding shares of Common Stock, consisting of 3.3% in shares of Common Stock and 4.5% in stock-settled call options. As a result of the transactions reported in this Amendment No. 9, the Reporting Persons sold options and engaged in net purchases of shares of Common Stock, resulting in a net increase of Common Stock ownership of 0.2% and a decrease of beneficial ownership to 4.4%, consisting of 3.5% in shares of Common Stock and 0.9% in stock-settled call options.

Item 5. Interests in Securities of the Issuer.
(a), (b) Based upon the Issuer’s quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended May 2, 2009, there were 752,279,589 shares of Common Stock outstanding as of June 3, 2009. Based on the foregoing, 32,994,586 shares of Common Stock (which includes Common Stock and physically-settled listed and over-the-counter American-style call options), representing 4.4% of the shares of Common Stock issued and outstanding, are reported on this Amendment No. 9.
As of the date hereof, none of the Reporting Persons owns any shares of the Common Stock other than as reported herein.

So, what seems to be the issue is the type of ownership he had/has.

To help put this into context wee need to look at Target’s (TGT) case against him in this spring’s proxy battle:

Target made apparently a compelling (I say so because he lost the proxy battle, not because I believe it) case that since much of Ackman’s ownership consisted on “call options”, that he truly was not a long term investor.

The options are not “ownership” per se but an interest in the outcome of the stock price. Because of that the interest in those shares cannot be voted and it was this structure that Target harped on to diminish Ackman’s plans as “short term”. The options mentioned above were stock settled. So, he did not sell them for cash but essentially converted them to stock.

Based on this, while the % of shares he holds an interest of some sort in has fallen, his monetary interest probably is not all that unchanged or likely has risen. Look at this example. I buy 2 $40 call options for Target and pay $100 each for them. I have an economic interest in 200 shares (each option =100 shares) but ownership of none. Then, at expiration, I convert 1 of the 2 options into shares. The cost of doing that would be $4000 for the stock based on the price of it. In this case, the “economic interest” I have based on the number of shares in the stock has fallen but my monetary interest has risen, considerably.

So, in Ackman’s case, if he intends on making another run at the board next year, what matters more than anything is not the total economic interest he has through swaps/options/ownership but simply his outright ownership of shares. That structure will eliminate the argument from management and bolster the ideas he has for the company. For this reason, if he eliminated all the option and swap contracts he has and simply owned 3.5% to 4% of the common shares, based on recent results, this would be a more meaningful position in the company in the eyes of shareholders vs the 7.7% he had through the above mentioned agreements.

Because of this the headlines out to have been “Ackman Increases Target Ownership” as Pershing had a “net increase” in shares directly held.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Ackman Sells Options, Buys Target Shares

True to his word it appears Ackman is going for the long haul in Target (TGT). My guess is his TIP REIT idea is not dead and rather have a large option position that management used against him in the proxy fight, he is going to own shares.

It is a good idea. Rather than allow them to say he simply wants a quick profit before his options expire and cares nothing about the long term health of the company, he in one fell swoop both takes that argument away from them and also bolsters his own “I own more shares than management and have more a a vested interest” argument.

Looks like we have another battle brewing….

From the filing:

Item 1. Security and Issuer.
This Amendment No. 9 to Schedule 13D (this “Amendment No. 9”) amends and supplements the statement on Schedule 13D originally filed on July 16, 2007 (the “Original Schedule 13D”), as amended by Amendment No. 1 through Amendment No. 8 (the Original Schedule 13D as amended and supplemented by Amendment No. 1 through Amendment No. 8, the “Schedule 13D”), by (i) Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P., a Delaware limited partnership (“Pershing Square”), (ii) PS Management GP, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company, (iii) Pershing Square GP, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company, (iv) Pershing Square Holdings GP, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company, and (v) William A. Ackman, a citizen of the United States of America (collectively, the “Reporting Persons”), relating to the common stock, par value $0.0833 per share (the “Common Stock”), of Target Corporation, a Minnesota corporation (the “Issuer”, the “Company” or “Target”).
As of August 7, 2009, as reflected in this Amendment No. 9, the Reporting Persons are reporting beneficial ownership on an aggregate basis of 32,994,586 shares of Common Stock (approximately 4.4% of the outstanding shares of Common Stock), which include shares of Common Stock and shares subject to certain stock-settled American-style call options.

Item 4. Purpose of Transaction.

Item 4 of the Schedule 13D is hereby supplemented as follows:
As of May 26, 2009, the date of the last amendment to this Schedule 13D, the Reporting Persons beneficially owned approximately 7.8% of the then outstanding shares of Common Stock, consisting of 3.3% in shares of Common Stock and 4.5% in stock-settled call options. As a result of the transactions reported in this Amendment No. 9, the Reporting Persons sold options and engaged in net purchases of shares of Common Stock, resulting in a net increase of Common Stock ownership of 0.2% and a decrease of beneficial ownership to 4.4%, consisting of 3.5% in shares of Common Stock and 0.9% in stock-settled call options.

Item 5. Interests in Securities of the Issuer.
(a), (b) Based upon the Issuer’s quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended May 2, 2009, there were 752,279,589 shares of Common Stock outstanding as of June 3, 2009. Based on the foregoing, 32,994,586 shares of Common Stock (which includes Common Stock and physically-settled listed and over-the-counter American-style call options), representing 4.4% of the shares of Common Stock issued and outstanding, are reported on this Amendment No. 9.
As of the date hereof, none of the Reporting Persons owns any shares of the Common Stock other than as reported herein.
Item 5(c) of the Schedule 13D is hereby amended and restated as follows:
(c) See the trading data for the last 60 days attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. Exhibit 99.1 is incorporated by reference into this Item 5(c) as if set out herein in full.
Except as set forth in Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, within the last 60 days, no other transaction in shares of the Common Stock or derivative securities were effected by any Reporting Person.

Link to trading data


Disclosure (“none” means no position):nONE

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Pershing Q1 Letter

Anyone want to take a guess at what the two new investments are?

“Large US based multinationals”…are what Ackman says they bought, one of which has had rapid price appreciation.


Pershing- Square- Q2- Letter

For more analysis on this you should visit Market Folly


Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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A CRE Deal and Implications for General Growth

Hat tip to reader Mark for finding this for me:

From the WSJ:

-Macquarie CountryWide Trust (MCW.AU) said Friday that it has agreed to sell its 75% stake in a portfolio of U.S. shopping malls for US$1.3 billion (A$1.61 billion) to help cut debt, sending its shares sharply higher.

The price for the portfolio of 86 properties, owned in partnership with shopping mall owner Regency Centers Corp. (REG), reflected a capitalization rate of 9.1% (emphasis mine), based on Sydney-based Macquarie CountryWide’s estimated net operating income for calendar year 2009.

It valued the whole portfolio at US$1.73 billion, the Australian property trust said in a statement.

Macquarie CountryWide has been selling assets to refinance maturing debt and enhance its liquidity as the trust – which specializes in retail properties – refocuses on its Australia and New Zealand portfolio.

How does this possibly effect General Growth Properties (GGWPQ)?

The question is “what kind of properties were these”? There are no details listed but their partner, Regency according to their website:

Regency Centers is a national developer, owner and operator of grocery-anchored and community shopping centers. We have spent more than 40 years, building a legacy of success evidenced by 440 centers, 21 regional offices and properties in nearly every major market. Our highly-focused commitment to quality and innovation has made Regency an industry leader and premier shopping center company.

I think it is pretty safe to assume that the properties sold were the strip mall shopping center type and they went for a 9.1% cap rate. Here is the list of Macquaries’ US properties.

Now most of GGP’s Mall’s are classified as “A” properties due to the type and diversity of tenants. A local shopping center will sell for a higher cap rate simply because if the one large tenant (grocery store) pulls out, the property is highly adversely affected.

In this vein I checked with reader Micheal working in the CRE field now who said:

Before 2002 and the run up of CMBS financing average cap rates on strip centers were around 9% vs. roughly 7% on class A malls. This is a very rough estimate as class A in suburbs of Cleveland will go for a higher cap rate than class A in the suburbs of New York. Also cap rates have historically moved with interest rates. Investors need a yield spread above their cost of debt in order for a deal to make economic sense.

The thing to note right now is that cap rates are basically unknown because the market is so illiquid. This is especially true for class A malls because there are only a few groups who operate in the space (Simon, Taubman, GGP, Macerich). These assets are simply too expensive to have a large pool of bidders. In the strip center space you have many more players therefore a relatively (though still not very liquid) more liquid market. Right now Publix anchored centers in Florida are trading at around a 9% cap rate in comparison to low 7’s or high 6’s two years ago. The bidders on these assets are local buyers who use local bank debt with recourse.

No, I am not alluding to GGP garnering a 7% cap rate now (same time next year when they plan to file a reorg plan is a possibility though). I do not think it is that out of the realm to say Boston’s Fanuel Hall and Baltimore’s Inner Harbor would garner cap rates much less that a grocery anchored strip mall in Alameda California.

Now lets look at come cap rates/dilution percentages for GGP:

Because of that the 9.4% cap rate in the example looks to be high in relation to a valuation of GGP (it was intended to be that way). Let’s use the 9% cap rate. Simply put if the common shareholders get diluted 95%, it gives them a per share value of $1.69 (remember, not all of GGP is in Chapter 11). If you believe they deserve a lower cap, that minimal value rises. For instance if we split the historical cap rate gap of 7% to 9% and take the middle, 8%, even if shareholders are diluted 95%, the equity is still worth over $2 a share (this being as close to “wiped out” without actually being so as it could get).

If you think the cap rate is about right but the dilution will run 50%, the value for current shareholders is double digits. Basically the lower you run on the cap rate and the dilution scale, the potential equity gains are exponential. I am in the “some dilution” but nowhere near 95% camp. I am of the opinion we get some sort of “cramdown” (discussed here and here) with some sort of debt maturity extensions/debt to equity conversion scenarios.

The key to it all is the markets as Micheal alluded to above. How they are/aren’t functioning and what are they providing for pricing guidance determines much of the value data. Deals like this one start to give us a picture of what could be happening…

Here is the whole presentation from Pershing Square:
GGP Ackman


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GGWPQ

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Target Wakes Up To Join Wal-Mart on Health Care?

Two things on this:

1- Target (TGT) management has proven once again to be a step behind that of Wal-Mart (WMT)
2- There are no altruistic intentions here…..

From Dow Jones:

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Target Corp. (TGT) may join Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) in supporting the U.S. government’s drive to require all large companies to provide health care benefits to their workers.

The nation’s second-largest retail discounter behind Wal-Mart supports the program “in concept,” but would have to see the final language of any legislation to formally back it, Target spokeswoman Kay Rubbelke said.

Target has met with a number of different groups throughout the Senate and House to discuss the employer mandate proposal, Rubbelke said.

Rubbelke’s comments follow Wal-Mart’s creating a firestorm at the beginning of July by breaking with most other retailers to support the congressional proposals, which are part of President Barack Obama’s roughly $1 trillion effort to see that just about all Americans receive health-care coverage.

The so-called employer health care mandate is seen by the retail industry in particular as too onerous, given retailers’ reliance on legions of low-payed employees and the industry’s high turnover rate. Retailers say that meeting the mandate could force layoffs to pay the extra expense of coverage.

The National Retail Federation, the retail industry’s main trade group, is strongly lobbying against mandated coverage and has already fired back at Wal-Mart, asking members to strongly oppose its support.

The NRF has also spoken with Wal-Mart about its move and would likely approach Target if the retailer went the same route, said Neil Trautwein, the NRF’s chief health-care lobbyist.

Target, which like Wal-Mart, is not an NRF member, would be “embracing an ideal that is bad for the rest of retail and the rest of the general community,” if it ends up supporting mandated coverage, Trautwein said.

Target currently offers a number of health care plans with different levels of coverage and the majority of its eligible employees participate, Rubbelke said.

Target, like Wal-Mart, also operates in-store health clinics and pharmacies that could benefit from greater healthcare coverage.

Wal-Mart also operates a prescription program for employees of Caterpillar (CAT) and wants to expand it to other companies.

The health care mandate the House of Representatives is looking at would require most employers to provide workers with basic benefits or pay 8% of their payroll toward helping the government get them coverage, with potentially a lesser percentage for smaller employers. Measures that two Senate committees are considering would penalize most employers that don’t participate in the mandated coverage, Trautwein said.

Like I said when Wal-Mart made the first forray into the debate,:

Wal-Mart provides health care to it employees. Much of the competition does not. Should they then be required to, their cost basis for their business suddenly rises…considerably. Should that happen, in order to offset their new cost increases two things must happen. Either they offset it with pay freezes or reductions for new hires OR increase their prices to consumers.

Either scenario aids Wal-Mart immensely as it slows growth in their payroll and/or increases their competitive price advantage over the competition.

The same hold true for Target.

Were I a Target shareholder, I would be more than annoyed, especially given the recent contentious proxy battle that management is still reacting to Wal-Mart, not taking a leading role growing the business.

How? Target and Wal-Mart both stand to benefit substantially with increase health care coverage. Yet it is Wal-Mart in the forefront taking steps on the issue to capture that business, with Target now tagging along in a “oh yea, we could make money in that” moment.

I am making no opinion as to the national program, its costs/benefits etc to the economy as a whole. Regular readers can probably make an accurate guess where I come down on it. It does seem likely something is coming and were I a Target shareholder, I’d like to think my company would be out in front of the debate as a possible huge beneficiary.

Sadly, that does not seem the case…


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WMT, none

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Pershing Square General Growth Swap Details

Have been getting a bunch of questions regarding General Growth (GGWPQ). The majority tend to be of the “is it too late to buy?” vein.

I thought I would answer by giving some of Bill Ackman’s (the company’s largest shareholder) ownership data. Remember, Ackman has said he feels he may eventually see 13 times appreciation over his purchase prices. The swaps are settled monthly with collateral being posted in either direction based on the movement of the stock price and a cash payment in either direction at expiration..

Chart (click to enlarge)

SEC Filing


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GGWPQ

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Pershing Square Q1 Partner Letter

Pershing Square’s Q1 Letter to Investors

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General Growth’s Director Letter to Ackman

Here is the the letter from General Growth Properties (GGWPQ) to Bill Ackman inviting him to join the Board of Directors.

GGP Letter to Ackman

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Goldman Takes A Closer Look at Borders

Goldman Sachs (GS) last week released the following note on Borders Group (BGP). Not sure many of you have notice but Borders has jumped from $2.50 to $4.50 in less than a week.

Price jump aside, what is even more promising is that their reasoning backs what we have been talking about here for the better part of 6-8 months now. Borders is heading in the right direction in a simply brutal environment….

In a group that has moved, BGP stands out as an underappreciated turnaround situation with significant potential upside off a low base. We are raising our 12-month price target sharply, to $4.50 from $2.00, reflecting BGP’s solid 1Q performance relative to expectations, strong short-term cash flow dynamics, and the more generous multiples being rewarded to levered turnaround stories in the early stages of economic recovery. The firm’s new management team is driving financial discipline, with significant cost controls, and implementing merchandising improvements, i.e. driving the children’s business, gradually exiting music and video, and reducing cycle times with vendors. BGP faces structural and financial risks, but there is a price for every security, and its riskadjusted upside has become increasingly appealing as the firm emerges from financial distress, and EBITDA looks poised to stabilize off 2008 troughs.

Implications
We are raising our 2010/2011 EPS estimates to ($0.16)/($0.08) from ($0.60)/($0.40), respectively, reflecting the 1Q beat, as the company delivered a loss of ($0.31) per share, vs. our ($0.49) and last year’s ($0.53), reflecting both gross margin and expense upside. We are flowing additional margin improvement through to the year, and expense control to 2Q & 3Q, noting that the firm does cycle substantial expense cuts at 4Q. We are also introducing a 2011 estimate of ($0.07).

Valuation
Our new $4.50 target, up from $2.00, is derived using risk/reward EV/EBITDA analysis. Note that the stock appears quite inexpensive on FCF yield, but that cash flows are not sustainable at these levels given the depressed state of cap-ex relative to D&A.

So what happens to Borders? My friend on twitter @Dasan thinks the paper book biz is headed the way of the CD via amazon (AMZN). I disgaree. While an increasing number of folks will get digital books, children’s books will never be digitized and books, unlike a CD are a hands-on experience for most folks.

That being said, Borders and Barnes & Noble (BKS) need to merge. While they cannot compete separately with Amazon’s Kindle, Border’s deal with Sony’s Reader can enable them to compete combined. Further, rather than competing with each other on price, the combined entity would see margin improvement in the physical stores & give them more bargaining strength with suppliers. Anit-trust issues are minor as Wal-Mart is a huge book retailer and the combined entity would still be dwarfed by Amazon. There is store overlap but working off that excess is less of a concern that the benefit they would see from a merger.

Let’s not forget that it was just last year that BKS looked at BGP but declined to make an offer. Let’s also not forget this was last year at a time when credit markets were collapsing and BGP’s turnaround was in doubt by many. Now that both of those issues are far less urgent, do not be surprised to see BKS take another look at its brick and mortar rival.

Pershing Square ans Bill Ackman have become a 40% shareholder.

Patience is required on this one. This is a hold because selling now, to try and buy back in later could cost you. I can easily see a scenario in which we wake up one day and either BKS or another private equity firm make an offer for the company.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP

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Ackman Named to Board of Directors at General Growth Properties

For any of those not sure Bill Ackman would be able to influence General Growth Properties (GGWPQ) to put forward the most shareholder friendly plan of reorganzation possible, comes this:

GENERAL GROWTH PROPERTIES, INC. today announced the appointment of William A. Ackman to its Board of Directors. Mr. Ackman brings more than 16 years of investment fund manager and advisor experience to the Company.

Mr. Ackman is the founder and managing member of the general partner of Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P., an investment advisor founded in 2003. He is a member of the Board of Dean’s Advisors of Harvard Business School and a Trustee of the Pershing Square Foundation. Pershing Square Capital Management and its affiliates own slightly less than 7.5% of the Company’s outstanding common stock.

“Bill brings an important perspective and creative thinking to our Board at this critical time in the Company’s development of a sustainable long-term capital structure and we look forward to his future contributions to the Company,” said Adam Metz, chief executive officer of General Growth Properties.

GGP Information

For those who do not know, Ackman controls approx. 25% of the outstanding shares of General Growth either directly or through total return swaps. Having him on the Board is fantastic news for those holding shares. It assures mutual alignment.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GGWPQ

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Vanguard Picks Up 3.6 Million General Growth Shares

We knew folks were buying General Growth Properties (GGWPQ) in bulk he last couple weeks, now the news as to who is coming out. Hat Tip reader Mark for the information

Data source

Ackman’s Ira Sohn Presentation on General Growth

GGP Presentation 5.27.2009

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Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GGWPQ

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Ackman Ira Sohn Presentation on General Growth Properties

Hat Tip Investment Linebacker

GGP Presentation 5.27.2009

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Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GGWPQ

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Ackman Loses Proxy Battle With Target

A classic win some/lose some scenario unfolded today at the Target (TGT) meeting for investor Bill Ackman.

Here are some past posts on the subject here, here, and here

Here is soke of the press release from Target:

“On behalf of Target’s Board of Directors and management team, we thank our shareholders for their overwhelming support throughout this process,” said Gregg Steinhafel, Target’s Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. “Today’s outcome demonstrates the confidence Target shareholders have in our Board’s qualifications, diversity and experience to provide effective and independent oversight and direction to the company, contributing to the creation of one of the most recognized brands in the United States. We remain dedicated to serving the interests of all shareholders by sustaining Target’s competitive advantage, driving continued profitable growth and generating substantial shareholder value over time.”

Analysis From Bloomberg:

Ackman Said:

As an aside, he does have very valid points as to the voting process involved not just at Target but in corporate America in general. It should not be more dificult to vote for a Board of Directors than the President. It also should be a secret vote and a single ballot so as to not be influenced.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Ackman: General Growth "worth $20 to $35"

Hat tip to Zero Hedge for this. Regular readers know we own a bunch of General Growth Properties (GGWPQ) at $.49. It currently trades at $1.60 today and if Ackman is right, it is still a stunning value.

Ira Sohn

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Ackman Pledges to Keep Target Shares 5yrs. if Elected

As stated here before, I have no “skin in this game”. The sole reason for my interest in this is the message it hopefully sends to other corporate boards should Ackman be successful.

Hopefully there is little objection to the “corporate boards are unresponsive to shareholders” meme. That being said, a successful Ackman may spur changes at other boards if for no other reason the avoid a similar situation.

My main issue is with Target’s changing of their governance rules in order to entrench the board. Also, their refusal to publicly debate or discuss the ideas of their largest shareholder, while at the same time using press releases to snipe at the ideas he floats is more than a bit distasteful..

Read other ValuePlays post on this here, here, and here.

Here is today’s CNBC appearance.

Part 1:


Part 2:


Pershing Square Press Release May 26

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Disclosure (“none” means no position):None