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Reader Emails Answered: Oil, Financials, Recession, Dollar etc..

Been getting a slew of emails the last months and rather than say the same things over and over, thought I would address them in a post since the themes are all similar..

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1- Financials:
Will not be touching them and are currently waiting for Wells Fargo (WFC) to rally a bit to sell out of it. Why? I no longer know the rules of investing in them. TARP and its requirements change almost daily. Going forward, the term (interest) the Gov’t demands and the shareholder dilution that accompanies them will become more onerous. That is bad news. Also, the second body blow from housing is due this year and next. That means more suffering for financials and shareholders.

Now, this does not mean I will never invest in them again, just that I think in 2010 we will still be able to buy them at these levels or lower. Is there value in financials? I just cannot quantify it as long as we have shifting rules from the Gov’t.

2- The Market
Up to 9000, then back to 8000 all year. The market will bounce like a ball but never really go anywhere. I think the risk is to the downside as the recession worsens. Unemployment ought to pass 10%, GDP will be negative for the year and credit is still drying up. So, given those, how do we go to 10,000?

That being said, it is a traders market. If you sell options you can make some money here. If you trade the rang you can also. If you are not a trader, don’t try to be one. Be who you are

3- Oil
Have written a lot about it recently. Why? Demand has fallen true, but the unreported story is production has fallen off a cliff also. Oil is not like a faucet. It cannot just be turned back on. A drilling project shuttered because of low prices today cannot just be flipped back on when prices recover. There is a tremendous lag. As crazy as prices were at $147, they are equally as crazy at $47. US production continues to fall, Mexico’s has plummeted and OPEC is more in power than ever. That only serve to heighten the Geo-Political risk of oil. Translation? One wacko can cause a global oil price spike.

I see the most value here now, or at least a market unfettered by arbitrary Gov’t intervention. Yes, I know that most foreign oil companies are govt’t owned, what I am saying is that if you buy oil today, your ownership cannot be diluted by the gov’t like it can and is in equities today.

4- The dollar and inflation….
Has anyone ever seen a scenario when massive supply of an item has not caused a devaluation of it? How can the current US Gov’t’s “running the dollar printing presses full tilt” like they are now NOT lead to a devaluation of the dollar? Here is the problem. The gov’t WANTS inflation to return. It will increase home prices, increase to prices manufacturers get for their goods, increase equity values etc. The problem is, gov’t always overdoes it. That means that they will pump too much into the system and inflation will get away from them.

That genie, once out of the bottle is only pot back in by inflicting more pain on the economy. It then becomes a vicious circle…

5- What to buy?
Right now? I am buying nothing but oil. Why? As much as we have sen the rules of the game change in the past year, still more is due. TARP requirements are, the tax code is, a stimulus is coming (we do not know the composition of it) and a Democratic Congress has plenty on its agenda. What looks good today may not tomorrow. Does this mean you should not buy anything? No. There of course will be plenty of equities that do wonderful in the next year. I just think there will be plenty more that do not.

Management now matters more than ever. Keep it in mind when buying.

Am I selling? Only the financials (sold most in the fall). I still like what I hold, Dow Chemical (DOW), AutoNation (AN), ADM (ADM), Borders (BGP), Oil (DXO), (DBO), Phillip Morris International (PM), Sears Holdings (SHLD) and GE (GE). I do have misgiving about Immelt at GE but am willing to wait as I think they will be a big beneficiary of infrastructure stimulus.

All dominate their businesses (except Borders and Sears, they are plays on the majority shareholders Ackman and Lampert) and are picking up market share. Dow will lead us out of recession as whatever needs to be made, they make the stuff that makes it and it yields 10%.

Wait and see….

This is the environment that one can make purchases that make one look like a genius for decades, it just takes a keen eye….


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Ackman and Pershing Square Dump Barnes and Noble Shares

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Ackman who as of the 11/20 filing held over 6.4 million shares has sold out of his Barnes and Noble (BKS) position.

Todays’s filing SEC Link.


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Monday, Bloody Monday at Borders $$

Ron Marchall has the experience, that cannot be argued. What I have not found yet are the ties to Bill Ackman and Pershing. This must be the reason for the delay in the Pershing financing agreement.

Wall St. Newsletters

Borders Group (BGP) today announced several management changes–including the appointment of a new Chief Executive Officer–to more aggressively drive a turnaround of the company within today’s challenging economy. Effective today, Ron Marshall, who most recently was Principal of Wildridge Capital Management, a private equity firm he founded approximately three years ago, has been appointed President and Chief Executive Officer and will serve as a Director. Marshall, 54, replaces George Jones who served in that same capacity since July 2006.

Marshall brings more than three decades of financial and retail experience to Borders Group. Prior to founding Wildridge Capital, he was Chief Executive Officer for eight years with Nash Finch Company, a $5 billion food distribution and retail organization, where Marshall was responsible for a turnaround that included the quadrupling of earnings over a six-year period as well as a 40% improvement in EBITDA over the same period. Marshall earlier helped drive a turnaround of $4 billion supermarket retailer Pathmark Stores, Inc., where he served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer from 1994 to 1998. Preceding that, Marshall served in senior management positions in a variety of retail companies including Dart Group Corporation’s Crown Books division and Barnes & Noble college bookstores.

“Progress has been made by Borders Group over recent quarters within the challenging economy to reduce debt, improve cash flow, cut expenses, enhance inventory productivity and improve margins, but it is imperative that the company more aggressively attack these initiatives to address its long-term future,” said Borders Group Board of Directors Chairman Larry Pollock. “We are confident that Ron Marshall, with his strong financial and turnaround expertise, vast retail experience and specific bookstore background, is the right choice to lead a new management team and boldly take these efforts to the next level.”

“Borders is a powerful brand with millions of loyal customers who love to shop in the stores,” said Marshall. “These are tremendous assets that can be built upon once the balance sheet is strengthened and the company is on more solid financial footing. I’ve led turnarounds at other retail organizations and look forward to leading a new management team at Borders to drive profitability and help ensure lasting success for this great name in retail.”
In accordance with New York Stock Exchange rules, Borders Group reported that it will issue to Marshall by Feb. 1, 2009 an employee inducement award consisting of options to purchase 1.8 million shares of the company’s common stock. The options vest in installments over the three-year period following Marshall’s start date. Marshall will also be issued 200,000 options at the same time with similar terms as those of the employee inducement award in accordance with the existing company shareholder-approved long-term incentive program. A full description of terms will be contained within a Form 8-K disclosure the company intends to file this week.
Other Management Changes

In addition to Marshall’s appointment as Chief Executive Officer, other management changes were announced. Mark Bierley has been named Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Finance. He replaces Ed Wilhelm, who joined Borders Group in 1994 and held the Chief Financial Officer position for the past eight years. Wilhelm will stay on with the company for a transition period. Bierley has more than 20 years of financial and accounting experience and has been with Borders Group since 1996. He has progressed through a variety of management positions within the company, including inventory and financial posts, and most recently served as Senior Vice President, Finance.

Anne Kubek has been appointed Executive Vice President, Merchandising and Marketing. In that position, she replaces Rob Gruen, who is leaving Borders Group after approximately two years. Kubek has been with the company since 1990, beginning her career as an assistant manager of the Borders store in Rockville, Maryland, and progressing through a series of management positions within the store organization. She came to the corporate office in 1996 and over the years has served as Vice President, Field Human Resources; Vice President, Book Merchandising; Vice President, Borders Store Operations and most recently as Senior Vice President, Borders Stores, a post she has held since 2005.

Additionally, Dan Smith has been named to the new position of Chief Administrative Officer. Smith, who has been with Borders Group since 1995 in a variety of leadership roles, including his most recent position as Executive Vice President, Human Resources, retains his current responsibilities, but also takes on leadership of the company’s information technology group, which is headed by Chief Information Officer Susan Harwood, who remains with the company.
“The Board is pleased to bring forth the considerable talents of individuals with strong track records, well-rounded experience and tremendous industry knowledge within Borders Group to contribute in even more significant ways to the company under the leadership of Ron Marshall,” Pollock added. “This is a great team with outstanding skills. We are confident that they will keep the company moving on the right path toward what can ultimately be a strong long-term future.”

Sales Results-Holiday 2008

Borders Group also released its sales results for the nine-week holiday period ended Jan. 3, 2009. Total consolidated sales were $868.8 million, an 11.7% decline compared to the same period last year. Within the Borders superstore segment, total sales for the holiday period were $652.6 million, which is a 13.6% decrease compared to 2007. Comparable store sales at Borders superstores declined by 14.4% compared to the same period a year ago. On a same-store sales basis, the book category at Borders declined by 11.0% for the period. Borders.com sales for the nine-week holiday period were $20.3 million. Overall, holiday sales started slow and improved during the latter part of the season.

Within the Waldenbooks Specialty Retail segment, total sales for the holiday period were $161.7 million, a 16.4% decrease compared to the same period one year ago. Comparable store sales for Waldenbooks declined by 8.0% compared to holiday 2007.

Total International segment sales were $34.3 million for the period, a 1.4% decrease compared to the same period a year ago. Comparable store sales at Paperchase stores in the U.K. decreased by 6.5% for the holiday period year over year.

“While our recent holiday sales results reflected the difficult retail environment and additional challenges within specific categories of our business, the company’s sales performance and cash generation were within the range of our internal financial plans for the holiday period,” said Borders Group Chief Financial Officer Mark Bierley. “We continue to aggressively implement the range of initiatives that we launched in mid-2008, which have allowed us to reduce expenses and improve working capital to drive improved cash flow and debt reduction.”

Is this a desperation move? Don’t think so. I think it is more of a “Jones took us as far as he could” and now someone else is needed to complete the transition. George Jones did a good job digging the company out of the hole his predecessor left him.

Marshall brings fresh eyes to the situation and a background from PE that inevitably will bring some creative solutions that the company needs to navigate the current credit markets.

Not selling, holding pat…


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP
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2009: Fear and Loathing $$

2009 is shaping up to make 2008 look like the good ‘ole days…

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Why?

Let’s look at some issues…

STIMULUS: Won’t it make a difference?
No. government stimulus is great in that is provides a nice immediate effect. It has a tremendous long term cost though. For the gov’t to hire it must either take from others (more taxes) or just print money itself. Neither is a good option long term. It gives us all a warm fuzzy in thinking that Barack is taking care of all of us but gov’t jobs are never the answer. It is a credit card mentality from the gov’t. It only works until the bill comes due….stimulating the private sector to create jobs is a far better option. It take a bit longer to work, but the results, far from costing money provide it for all…

Let’s reverse the whole scenario. What out there points to a recovery? A million jobs paving roads? Really? If the employment rate is expected to be 10% next year, then any jobs created by the gov’t will be more than offset by losses in the private sector.

To use the credit card mentality again, the govt’t will use its credit card to create demand (jobs) while at the same time losing income (from other job losses). Can you imagine how this scenario ends well? Me either..

HOUSING: A rebound?
Hell no!! Housing still has tremendous downside. Why? Housing inventory is still at 12 months and will only grow. The option arm nightmare is just beginning. These people cannot be helped by lower interest rates as they are not paying the minimum interest payment now on the loans. This is going to lead to another tidal wave of homes coming onto the market in the next year or two. Unlike the subprime defaults, these defaults will hit the $500k and over homes that people bought with 5% or less down. The already squeezed middle class is going to get whacked again…

A scenario in which we see 14 or 15 months of inventory out there is not all that out of the realm of probability

Much has been said about the banks not lending the TARP money. They aren’t because they know they have hundred of billions of dollars of losses coming up in mortgage products from these loans coming up. They’ll need the cash.

20% down..
The last two years of the housing boom were fueled by new mortgage products that allowed buyers to put in most cases less than 10% down for a home. These loans are gone. We are back to the 20% down rule. Were is it coming from? Investments? With the Dow (.DJI) and S&P (.INX) off 40% this year the stock market will not be a source of funds. Jobs? Unemployment will most likely hit 10% next year so it will not be from jobs or singing bonuses and people worried about losing a job are not going to tap savings for a new home. In short there is not a source of funds for a down-payment.

Even if we have willing buyers, were are they going to get the money?

After the last housing bust in the early 1990’s it took 9 years for home prices to return to pre-bust levels. The boom then was nothing like the current one so to expect prices to return and make millions of underwater home owners profitable when they sell anytime before 2017 is delusional.

INFLATION: Up ,Up and Away
What happens when the supply of something grows unrestrained? It value falls. Thus is the dollar. As it s value falls, more of them are required to purchase items. Inflations ensues. How do we stop inflation? Raise interest rates to increase demand for dollars, oops, there goes the housing fix currently being tried…

THE CONSUMER:
Retrenching……If you have watched the news in the past month shopper after shopper is saying they are cutting back on spending and not using credit. That is the right decision for them, but bad for growth today. The consumer is shell shocked and will not dip their toes in the water again until they are 100% sure it is safe. That, will be a while. A poor economic climate in 2009 will only worsen the mood and the fear they feel, causing further retrenchment.

Part of this problem is the inevitable mood swing surrounding a new administration. This does have a severe downside though. “Hope” was Obama’s message and the “it is a new day” mantra has been restated over and over by followers. Here is the problem, even if Obama does everything right, 2009 will still be a lousy year. That optimism will turn to a vicious pessimism as consumers will then resort to a “if he can’t help us no one can” mentality.

The consumer will stash money away, reduce debt and live less frivolously. Again, all good things long term but very bad short term for business.

What to buy?
Personally if you are going into stocks, buy things people have to have with a nice dividend. Discretionary names ought to suffer as a whole with some individual spectacular successes.

Personally I am looking at oil (DBO), (DXO), shorting the dollar (UDN) and gold (GLD).

Not thinking about selling current holding as ones like Dow Chemical (DOW), GE (GE), Phillip Morris International (PM) all will pay me 9%, 7% and 6% in dividends this year (long term holdings so lower tax rate than regular income). Those that don’t are smaller portions of holdings and success there ought to be met with very nice upside (hopefully).

AutoNation (AN)is capturing market share by the boat load as competitors close. It will emerge as the clear dominant player in all its market. That, and I am still convinced something is going to happen with it, Sears Holdings (SHLD) and AutoZone (AZO).

Borders (BGP) is feast or famine. I think it will be fine but it will take time…CEO George Jones is doing everything right and Ackman will buy it before he let’s it fold.

On the fence for a sell is Wells Fargo (WFC). It is a tough one because there are only really four big banks left (JP Morgan (JPM, Bank of America (BAC), Wells and Citigroup (C) so business will be there. But, the level of business going forward just will not be there as housing suffers for years. I have been selling covered calls on it for three months now and have lowered my cost basis on it 10%. After January expiration, assuming a market rally going into inauguration, I may just take that chance to get out before the 2009 slide begins. If I am called out, my total return in it for the three months will be 12% (dividend included). I’ll take it.


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Borders To Try Alternate Model


This does make sense…

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The WSJ Reports

Borders Group Inc. has agreed to accept books from HarperStudio on a nonreturnable basis, departing from a decades-old publishing tradition.

Under the terms of the deal, the nation’s second-largest bookstore chain by revenue will get a deeper discount on initial orders of books published by the new imprint of News Corp.’s HarperCollins Publishers — 58% to 63% off the cover price, instead of the usual 48%. In exchange, Borders won’t return any unsold books to HarperStudio, instead probably discounting them in the store. (News Corp. owns The Wall Street Journal.)

“The idea of taking inventory and then shipping it back isn’t a good idea for anybody. We’re open to all publishers to discuss alternatives to the traditional return model,” said Robert Gruen, executive vice president of merchandising and marketing at Borders, of Ann Arbor, Mich.

Under standard industry practice dating to the 1930s, retailers can send back whatever new titles don’t sell for full credit, with publishers paying for shipping. This has created a mass of titles that are trucked from one warehouse to another until they eventually are sent back to the bookstore chains, where they are sold for a significant discount to the list price.

People in the industry estimate that between 30% and 40% of all consumer adult titles are eventually returned to their publishers.

“Returns have never made sense in our business, and with the recent economic downturn, publishers and booksellers are more open than before to experimenting with models that might decrease waste and increase profit,” said Robert Miller, president and publisher of HarperStudio. When he started the imprint earlier this year, Mr. Miller said he intended to shake up traditional book-publishing economics.

Pro’s are that the new arrangement instantly increases margins or, should Borders elect not to go that route, they are now able to become more competitive on prices to the consumer without pressuring current ones. The key to making it work is inventory. It now become more important than ever to maintain proper levels to maximize sales of new titles at higher prices.

Borders this year has shown that it is able to do that and having control of the website from Amazon (AMZN) does give them a far more profitable clearing house for unsold titles.

This is a very good move, what needs to happen next is clarity on the “alternative financing arrangement with Bill Ackman and Pershing.


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Ackman’s Wendy’s Analysis $$

The reasoning behind his recent investment in Wendy’s (WEN).

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Ackman Wendy’s Analysis

Publish at Scribd or explore others:


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Why Did Borders Stock Fall? "Alternative Financing Transaction"

Three little words have cast doubt on the retailer that otherwise is doing everything it said it would.

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In reviewing the last earnings call Borders (BGP) has made significant progress this year on all stated goals..

* Debt down over 30%
* Cash flow from negative $100m to plus $9 million
* Cost cuts surpassed the $120 million goal to $140 million now
* The new concept stores have exceed expectations
* Borders.com has over 30 million Rewards Members and adds over 120k a week.

Here is the problem:
“Regarding Paperchase we retained the right to exercise the put option to sell Paperchase to Pershing Square Capital Management for $65 million and we are also in discussions with Pershing Square regarding an alternative financing transaction.

Of course no assurance can be given as to whether an alternative financing transaction will be entered into or contemplated.”

Later, in response to a question, CEO Jones says:
Matthew Fassler – Goldman Sachs:
“Related to the other deal you’re looking at with Pershing you talked about retaining the put on Paperchase but you said you’re looking at an alternative strategic transaction to the extent and if you’re free to shed any light on what kind of transaction that might be we’d be interested.”

Edward Wilhelm
“We do have, we have retained the rights to the put, and the disclosure in the release was an alternative financing transaction. And we can’t comment any further then what was in the release.”

Matthew Fassler – Goldman Sachs
“Would that be presumably a more comprehensive transaction that goes beyond Paperchase?”

Edward Wilhelm
“We really can’t comment any further.”

George Jones
“The key thing to note though is we still have the right to the put so anything we do is obviously going to be favorable for the company.”

The lack of any further clarity leaves people wondering. Now, of course folks think the deal will be favorable to the company. But, does it mean it will stop it from Chapter 11 or does it mean it will provide additional liquidity to increase concept store openings? Does it mean credit markets are closed to the retailer or does it mean thy can just get a better deal from Pershing? Does it mean Ackman may just buy the rest of the company for the $25 million it will cost him at these prices and just spin it out in a few years and they want to avoid that?

You could go one for another 20 scenario’s and until Borders or Ackman come out and settle folks down, the stock will languish. Do I think the company is in trouble? No. But, I have no ammunition to make the argument when they give us nothing.

I know some folks who have spoken the Wilhelm as essentially said the same things and the reply was that they “understood but could not announce specifics now”. We do not need specifics…just a direction..


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP
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Does Ackman & General Growth Properties Have Anything to Do With Target? $$

What is the plan here? We know General Growth (GGP) is in a tight spot. But, with Citi (C) taking a 5% stake, the debt is all but assured to be refinanced. Some thoughts at the end, does it have to do with Target?

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Hedge fund manager William Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management LP disclosed that it owns a 7.5 percent stake in General Growth Properties. Pershing Square directly owns a total of 20 million shares in the REIT.

The company also said it owned 48.5 million shares through total return swaps, bringing its economic interest in the company to 68.6 million shares (over 18%).

SEC Filing

“The Subject Shares are beneficially owned by the Reporting Persons. Furthermore, the Reporting Persons entered into Swaps for the benefit of Pershing Square, L.P. (the “PSLP Swaps”), Pershing Square II, L.P. (the “PSII Swaps”) and Pershing Square International, Ltd (the “PSIL Swaps”, collectively with the PSLP Swaps and PSII Swaps, the “Pershing Square Swaps”) on the dates described on Exhibit 99.1. The Pershing Square Swaps constitute economic exposure to approximately 18.1% notional outstanding Common Shares in the aggregate, have reference prices ranging from $0.49 to $1.58 and expire on the dates described on Exhibit 99.1.

Under the terms of the Pershing Square Swaps (i) the applicable Pershing Square Fund will be obligated to pay to the counterparty any negative price performance of the notional number of Common Shares subject to the applicable Pershing Square Swap as of the expiration date of such Swap, plus interest at the rates set forth in the applicable contracts, and (ii) the counterparty will be obligated to pay to the applicable Pershing Square Fund any positive price performance of the notional number of Common Shares subject to the applicable Pershing Square Swap as of the expiration date of the Swaps. With regard to the Pershing Square Swaps, any dividends received by the counterparty on such notional Common Shares will be paid to the applicable Pershing Square Fund during the term of the Swap. All balances will be cash settled at the expiration date of the Swaps. The Pershing Square Funds’ third party counterparties for the Pershing Square Swaps include entities related to BNP Paribas, Citibank, Morgan Stanley and UBS. “

Here is the trading data:

Now, if we really want to go further with this we could look at Target (TGT). The buying here coincided with Target’s lukewarm response to Ackman’s Target REIT plan. It picked up heavily after his second proposal to the company.

After Target dismissed it, Ackman added over 25 million share directly and another 30 million through the swaps. I rarely find too much pure coincidence in timing like this.

What then? Perhaps he could offer up GGP to Target (TIP REIT) to expand it presence? Perhaps off to have GGP run TIP REIT to take the burden of running it off Target execs hands? After all, it was one of the objections Target put forward, albeit a very weak one.

Perhaps placing them into a JV to share the running and vastly expand the footprint of them…it would also give Target access to cheap land to expand.

Who knows…….something is up though…


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Don’t Hold Current Managment Responsible For The Sins of The Prior One

First, I have respect for Jeff Matthews and link to his stuff often, but this time, he misses…

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Matthews writes:

The poster child of poor capital management might just be Borders Group.

Borders, which runs one of our favorite book stores in the country (Union Square in San Francisco) and goes by the ticker BGP, is the now-beleaguered bookseller spun out of K-mart long ago in happier times.

Borders is also one of those companies that so desperately wanted to make Wall Street’s Finest happy—not to mention its own shareholders—that it spent all its cash, and more, to buy back stock.

“Returning value to shareholders,” it was called back in February 2005, when Borders management proudly announced a $250 million share repurchase plan, and the stock price was $25.

Wall Street’s Finest were, of course, delighted, and the company received the kind of “attaboys” that caused a long list of management teams to pursue the greatest value-destroying fad in American business history. In this case, it crippled a once wonderful chain of bookstores:

“The stock’s cheap, in our opinion, and the company seems to agree,” [hedge fund manager Bill] Ackman said last week at the Value Investing Congress in New York. Borders…has “one of the most aggressive share-repurchase programs I’ve ever seen.”

—Bloomberg LP, November 2006

In the end, of course, that repurchase program was far too aggressive.

Five years ago Borders had a $1.9 billion market value and more cash than debt on its books. Today, Borders has a $50 million market value (yes, that’s right, $50 million) and more debt than cash. Like, $525 million in debt against $38 million in cash.

Oh, and the stock’s current price? $1.00 a share.

“Returning value to shareholders?” No. “Mortgaging the future,” at best. “Destroying the company,” at worst.

What Matthew fails to acknowledge is that current CEO George Jones has only been a the company since July 2006. Jones’ first act as CEO was to take back control of the Borders.com site from Amazon (AMZN). The site now has nearly 30 million rewards members. Second he outlined the new concept stores Borders is building that are the companies most profitable. He then said he was going to lower the chains inventory levels and reduce its huge debt load and both are down 30% and 40% respectively.

Now, we all know retail turnarounds take time and that time is painfully exacerbated in a recession and credit crunch like we are seeing. But we need to be clear that Jones has the company cash flow positive, has reduced debt and his vision for the new concept stores is a success.

Here is a podcast Jones did in July 2007 after his plan was announced.

A recent Credit Suisse research report backs this by saying:

The improvement we have seen in just the last few months is very encouraging, and perhaps in a better macro environment, could make an interesting story. However, in an environment where the comparable-store-sales declines are worsening, its gap with its No. 1 competitor is widening, in a retail segment on the decline and shifting to other channels, and with technology threatening to change the business even further, we see limited upside from current operating levels and remain cautious on the stock.

Overall, we believe Borders management deserves credit for the progress it has made. In the midst of a challenging macro environment, the company has managed to cut costs without destroying the bottom line, has sold off business lines to focus on the U.S., and has positioned the company to survive.

Results for the third quarter, while worse than expected, showed lower expenses as promised, improved gross margins absent the fixed-cost deleverage from lower sales, better management of promotions, a significant reduction in debt, and much improved cash flow. The company also upped its cost savings target by $20 million to $140 million.

If we look further, I think someone would be very hard pressed to find a retailer who’s share sit today higher than they did in mid 2006 when Jones took over. Not Target (TGT), Macy’s (M), JC Penny (JCP), Home Depot (HD), Lowes (LOW), Sears Holdings (SHLD), Barnes & Noble (BKS) or scores of others sit today higher than they did them.

Were the actions of previous management ill planned? Yes. But let’s be clear that current management is doing the right things to fix those mistakes..


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP, WMT, SHLD, none
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Friday’s Links

Thank you, Ackman, CNN, Citi Field

Wall St. Newsletters

– Thank you for the mention

– A good take on the General Growth Properties investment

– Why watching the MSM is no way to learn about the crisis..

– Not bad, $400 million of tax dollars to name the Mets new stadium…


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Sears…A Reader Submission.

Reader Justin submits: Why Sears (SHLD) is NOT going bankrupt?

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In this volatile market, anyone can say anything to put downward pressure on a stock. In many cases deserved, in some cases absurd, and in the case of Sears a little of both.

Let’s start with the deserved part. Obviously, retail is doing terrible this year as an investment. However, the woes at Sears go beyond the macro environment. They have made bad decisions in some cases, suffered from management turnover, and communicated very little beyond what’s required by a public company. On top of that, they recently lost a well-respected, activist shareholder, Bill Ackman. Bill has taken an absolute beating on his investments in Sears, Target, and Borders, so he may have had about all the fun he can handle in retail. In short, it hasn’t been all that pretty, but the shares reflect much worse.

The absurd is the idea that Sears has some kind of solvency risk as some have floated. Why is this absurd? Here’s my case:

1. Last quarter Sears generated FCF (free cash flow) of over $400 million. Target, a “good” retailer actually had no FCF last quarter, they burned over $900million. In fact, Target hasn’t generated FCF in the last 3 quarters. Over the same time frame Sears generated a staggering $1.5 BILLION in FCF. So yes Sears is making money hand over fist in this environment even with mediocre execution.

2. Eddie Lampert’s investment fund ESL owns over 50% of Sears. And Sears makes up over ½ his fund. And his fund is still making investments in other equities. Now if you are thinking that ½ your fund may evaporate into insolvency or you are worried about investor redemptions then you preserve cash if not generate cash by selling positions. What you don’t do is make more investments, which is what he’s doing.

3. Sears announced the purchase of additional shares of Sears Canada in November. Why spend your cash on buybacks and now additional shares in Sears Canada if you are worried about your cash position?

4. I’ve been to several Sears and Kmarts in recent weeks and they are all hiring.

In conclusion, Sears is hiring people, buying shares in, generating FCF, and ESL continues to make investments. None of these indicate to me that there’s any solvency concern by the controlling shareholder.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Justin is long SHLD
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Borders Q3 Results

Have not had a chance to go through the numbers yet and want to wait until the conference call tomorrow but here is the news and some initial thoughts…

Wall St. Newsletters

Borders Group, Inc. (NYSE: BGP) today reported results for the third quarter, ended Nov. 1, 2008. On an operating basis, the consolidated loss from continuing operations for the third quarter was essentially flat with the same period a year ago at $39.0 million or $0.64 per share, compared to $38.4 million or $0.65 per share in the third quarter of 2007. On a GAAP basis, the company reported a consolidated third quarter loss from continuing operations of $172.2 million or $2.85 per share compared to a year ago when it recorded a GAAP loss of $40.0 million or $0.68 per share from continuing operations. The GAAP basis loss includes non-cash, non-operating charges totaling $133.2 million in the third quarter, consisting primarily of deferred tax and fixed asset impairments. Comparable store sales for Borders superstores decreased by 12.8% in the third quarter, and with music excluded, declined by 10.6%. Same-store sales at Waldenbooks decreased by 7.7% for the period.

“Borders has successfully reduced debt, improved operating cash flow, lowered expenses, improved gross margin-excluding occupancy-and improved inventory productivity during a time of extreme economic challenge,” said Borders Group Chief Executive Officer George Jones. “We stated at the beginning of this year that strengthening our balance sheet is our top priority and we are delivering results. We’ll remain keenly focused on these critical initiatives, and in addition, will increase our efforts to drive further gross margin improvement. All of the changes we are making will position Borders Group to compete more effectively.”

Debt, including the prior-year debt of discontinued operations, was reduced from a year ago by 34.2% or $273.1 million at the end of the third quarter to $525.4 million. This compares to debt of $798.5 million at the end of the third quarter last year. The debt reduction year-over-year was driven primarily by improved management of inventory, lower capital expenditures and proceeds from the previously announced sale of the company’s Australia/New Zealand/Singapore businesses, which took place in the second quarter of this year.

Operating cash flow from continuing operations improved by $110.0 million, as the company recorded fiscal year-to-date cash flow of $9.4 million compared to cash use of $100.6 million for the same period in 2007. Borders Group reduced inventory by $304.2 million at cost-or 19.5%-at the end of the third quarter compared to the end of the third quarter a year ago.

Management is now on-track to reduce fiscal 2009 operating expenses by $140 million compared to its previous target of $120 million. As a result, the company expects to save $70 million this year versus its original $60 million target for 2008. Beyond these operating expense improvements, the company believes there is additional opportunity to improve its realized gross margin through a more effective use of promotions and discounts. Early initiatives enabled the company to generate gross margin rate improvement-excluding occupancy-of 30 basis points in the third quarter and the company believes there is substantial room for further improvement.

Strategic Alternatives Update

Management provided an update to its previously disclosed strategic alternatives process, which included the exploration of a wide range of options, among them the sale of the company and/or certain divisions, including Paperchase Products Ltd. With respect to the sale of the company, management is no longer contemplating a transaction. Regarding Paperchase, as previously disclosed, Borders Group retains its right to exercise its “put” option to sell its Paperchase business to Pershing Square Capital Management for $65 million and is also in discussions with Pershing Square regarding an alternative financing transaction. No assurance can be given as to whether an alternative financing transaction will be entered into or consummated.

Additional Consolidated Q3 Results

All earnings and loss figures presented throughout this news release are provided on a continuing operations basis, unless otherwise noted.

Borders Group achieved third quarter consolidated sales of $682.1 million, a decrease of 10.0% over 2007. Consolidated gross margin as a percent of sales on an operating basis decreased by 1.4% from 22.2% to 20.8% in the third quarter as the negative impact of de-leveraging occupancy costs more than offset the gross margin benefit of a favorable sales mix and lower shrink. Excluding occupancy, third-quarter consolidated gross margin increased by 30 basis points compared to the prior year. On a GAAP basis consolidated gross margin as a percent of sales decreased by 0.6% from 22.1% to 21.5% in the third quarter.

On an operating basis, SG&A as a percent of sales in the third quarter decreased 0.1% from 28.7% in the same period last year to 28.6% resulting from de-leveraging caused by negative sales trends that were offset by the benefit of expense reductions. The expense reduction initiatives helped reduce SG&A dollar expenses by $22.3 million in the third quarter compared to the prior year. On a GAAP basis SG&A as a percentage of sales increased 1.3% from 28.7% to 30.0%.

Non-Operating Adjustments

GAAP consolidated net loss and loss per share figures reported in this release include the impact of non-operating adjustments, which in the third quarter totaled a net after-tax charge of $133.2 million. The net after-tax charge is comprised of deferred tax asset impairments of $107.0 million, store asset impairments of $31.1 million, as well as other items totaling $12.6 million, including severance costs, store closure and relocation costs, professional fees related to the strategic alternatives process, an adjustment to the U.K. lease guarantee liability and amortization of debt issuance costs. These costs were offset by income related to the fair market value adjustment of the warrant liability and a related tax benefit of $12.7 million as well as income received from a landlord lease termination of $4.8 million after tax.

Domestic Borders Superstores

Total third quarter sales at domestic Borders superstores were $548.4 million, a decrease of 10.9% over the same period in 2007. As stated, comparable store sales decreased by 12.8% for the period compared to last year, a result significantly impacted by a steep decline in customer traffic that was most pronounced in the months of September and October. Excluding the music category, same-store sales declined by 10.6% for the third quarter compared to one year ago.

Sales through Borders.com in the third quarter totaled $11.9 million, which is below management expectations due to the challenging sales environment. As a result, Borders Group does not expect Borders.com to break even this year as previously stated.

On an operating basis, Borders superstores reported an operating loss of $37.8 million in the third quarter compared to an operating loss of $30.8 million in the same period a year ago. The loss resulted primarily from negative same-store sales, which were partially offset by expense reductions. On a GAAP basis, Borders superstores reported an operating loss of $80.3 million in the third quarter compared to an operating loss of $31.9 million in the same period a year ago.

The company opened two new Borders superstores in the U.S. during the period and ended the third quarter with a total of 519 domestic superstore locations.

Waldenbooks Specialty Retail

Comparable store sales decreased within the Waldenbooks Specialty Retail segment by 7.7% in the third quarter. Total sales in the segment were down by 16.6% in the third quarter to $91.5 million, as the number of stores was reduced from 521 at the close of the third quarter 2007 to 467 at the end of the third quarter this year.

Company expense reduction initiatives and better gross margin performance drove an improvement in the third quarter operating loss for the Waldenbooks Specialty Retail segment. On an operating basis, the operating loss was $13.2 million in the third quarter this year compared to $19.4 million in the third quarter last year. On a GAAP basis, the operating loss for the Waldenbooks Specialty Retail segment was $17.7 million in the third quarter this year compared to $20.5 million in the third quarter last year.

International

In the third quarter, sales within the International segment (which consists primarily of Paperchase) totaled $30.3 million, which is down 6.2% compared to the same period a year ago. Excluding the impact of foreign currency translation, sales would have increased by 2.7%. On an operating basis, the segment generated an operating loss of $1.6 million in the third quarter this year compared to operating income of $1.8 million in the third quarter last year. On a GAAP basis, the segment generated an operating loss of $1.8 million in the third quarter this year compared to operating income of $1.8 million in the third quarter last year.

Next Financial Release

Borders Group plans to issue holiday sales results in mid-January. Fourth quarter 2008 results will be issued March 19 after market close with a conference call for investors the following day, March 20, at 8 a.m.

So, where are we? First and foremost the #1 problem at Borders is its debt. That, is falling and has been steadily since the beginning of the year. Second was cash flow / expenses and those are also going in the right direction. Cash flow is up and Borders will exceed it stated cost saving by 17%.

One has to remember that these results are in the face of a dismal operating environment for all retailers. The really good news is that in spite of it all, they are still making progress on their goals. As a shareholder, if the macro environment is lousy one cannot expect management to pull a rabbit out of their hat but as long as they continue to progress on the stated path, progress is being made.

Two things stick out. Borders.com results fell below expectations and the mentioned “financing transaction” with Pershing. Both need to be listened to on the conference call tomorrow am. Off the top of my head Borders can put Paperchase to Pershing for $65 million but owes Ackman $45 million from the earlier in the year loan. Just guessing but I think they want to put Paperchase to Pershing and extend the repayment of the loan…just a guess.

More after the call tomorrow…


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP
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Ackman Takes 12% Position in General Growth Properties

Now, is it just a coincidence with the Target (TGT) situation? Ackman now has a 12.5% total interest in General Growth Properties (GGP).

Wall St. Newsletters

From the SEC Filing:
Item 5. Interest in Securities of the Issuer
(a), (b) Based upon the Issuer’s quarterly report on 9/30/08 10-Q, 268,314,510 Common Shares were outstanding as of November 10, 2008. Based on the foregoing, the Subject Shares represented approximately 7.5% of the Common Shares issued and outstanding as of such date.
Pershing Square, as the investment adviser to the Pershing Square Funds, may be deemed to have the shared power to vote or direct the vote of (and the shared power to dispose or direct the disposition of) the Subject Shares. As the general partner of Pershing Square, PS Management may be deemed to have the shared power to vote or to direct the vote of (and the shared power to dispose of or direct the disposition of) the Subject Shares. As the general partner of Pershing Square, L.P. and Pershing Square II, L.P., Pershing Square GP may be deemed to have the shared power to vote or to direct the vote of (and the shared power to dispose or direct the disposition of) the Common Shares held for the benefit of Pershing Square, L.P. and Pershing Square II, L.P. By virtue of William A. Ackman’s position as managing member of each of PS Management and Pershing Square GP, William A. Ackman may be deemed to have the shared power to vote or direct the vote of (and the shared power to dispose or direct the disposition of) the Subject Shares and, therefore, William A. Ackman may be deemed to be the beneficial owner of the Subject Shares for purposes of this Schedule 13D.
(c) Exhibit 99.2, which is incorporated by reference into this Item 5(c) as if restated in full herein, describes all of the transactions in Common Shares and Swaps that were effected during the past sixty days by the Reporting Persons for the benefit of the Pershing Square Funds.
(d) No other person is known to the Reporting Persons to have the right to receive or the power to direct the receipt of dividends from, or the proceeds from the sale of, the Common Shares covered by this Schedule 13D, except that dividends from, and proceeds from the sale of, the Common Shares held by the accounts managed by Pershing Square may be delivered to such accounts.
(e) Not applicable.
Item 6. Contracts, Arrangements, Understandings or Relationships with Respect to Securities of the Issuer
The Subject Shares are beneficially owned by the Reporting Persons. Furthermore, the Reporting Persons entered into Swaps for the benefit of Pershing Square, L.P. (the “PSLP Swaps”), Pershing Square II, L.P. (the “PSII Swaps”) and Pershing Square International, Ltd (the “PSIL Swaps”, collectively with the PSLP Swaps and PSII Swaps, the “Pershing Square Swaps”) on the dates described on Exhibit 99.2. The Pershing Square Swaps constitute economic exposure to approximately 12.5% notional outstanding Common Shares in the aggregate, have reference prices ranging from $0.49 to $0.70 and expire on the dates described on Exhibit 99.1.
Under the terms of the Pershing Square Swaps (i) the applicable Pershing Square Fund will be obligated to pay to the counterparty any negative price performance of the notional number of Common Shares subject to the applicable Pershing Square Swap as of the expiration date of such Swap, plus interest at the rates set forth in the applicable contracts, and (ii) the counterparty will be obligated to pay to the applicable Pershing Square Fund any positive price performance of the notional number of Common Shares subject to the applicable Pershing Square Swap as of the expiration date of the Swaps. With regard to certain of the Pershing Square Swaps, any dividends received by the counterparty on such notional Common Shares will be paid to the applicable Pershing Square Fund during the term of the Swap. With regard to the balance of the Pershing Square Swaps, any dividends received by the counterparty on such notional Common Shares during the term of the Swaps will be paid to the applicable Pershing Square Fund at maturity. All balances will be cash settled at the expiration date of the Swaps. The Pershing Square Funds’ third party counterparties for the Pershing Square Swaps include entities related to Citibank, Morgan Stanley and UBS.
The Pershing Square Swaps do not give the Reporting Persons direct or indirect voting, investment or dispositive control over any securities of the Issuer and do not require the counterparty thereto to acquire, hold, vote or dispose of any securities of the Issuer. Accordingly, the Reporting Persons disclaim any beneficial ownership of any Common Shares that may be referenced in such contracts or Common Shares or other securities or financial instruments that may be held from time to time by any counterparty to the contracts.
In addition to the agreements referenced above, the Reporting Persons from time to time, may enter into and dispose of additional cash-settled total return swaps or other similar derivative transactions with one or more counterparties that are based upon the value of Common Shares, which transactions could be significant in amount. The profit, loss and/or return on such additional contracts may be wholly or partially dependent on the market value of the Common Shares, relative value of the Common Shares in comparison to one or more other financial instruments, indexes or securities, a basket or group of securities in which the Common Shares may be included or a combination of any of the foregoing.


Full Filing

Now, General Growth Properties recently expressed doubts it could keep operating due to looming near-term debt.

The Chicago-based retail property company has $1.13 billion in debt coming due, including $900 million in secured mortgage debt due November 28 on two of its Las Vegas shopping centers and $58 million of corporate debt on December 1, the company said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing.

It also faces another $3.07 billion due next year, according to the SEC filing.

“In the event that we are unable to extend or refinance our debt or obtain additional capital on a timely basis and on acceptable terms, we will be required to take further steps to acquire the funds necessary to satisfy our short term cash needs, including seeking legal protection from our creditors,” the real estate investment trust said in the filing.

“Our potential inability to address our 2008 or 2009 debt maturities in a satisfactory fashion raises substantial doubts as to our ability to continue as a going concern.”

Will Ackman provide some financing?

This is going to be good…..

If nothing else..the words Ford (F) or GM (GM) will not enter the vocabulary..


Disclosure (“none” means no position):None
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Target Decides To Let Stock Languish

Just do not understand this one…what are they thinking???

Wall St. Newsletters


Press Release:

Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) disclosed today that after a comprehensive evaluation of various real estate structure ideas proposed by Pershing Square over the past six months, it has decided not to pursue them further. Following a thorough review of the transaction outlined by Pershing Square by members of Target management, Board of Directors and outside advisors, including Goldman Sachs (GS), the company has concluded that the potential value created, if any, is highly speculative and insufficient to merit pursuit of a transaction given the costs, strategic and operating risks, and loss of financial flexibility related to executing the proposed transaction. These concerns are heightened in the current economic environment.

Analysis of the most recent Pershing Square idea revealed that concerns previously expressed by the company remain. These include:

* The validity of assumptions supporting Pershing Square’s market valuation of Target and the separate REIT entity,
* The reduction in Target’s financial flexibility due to the conveyance of valuable assets to the REIT and the large expense obligation created by the proposed lease payments, which are subject to annual increase,
* The frictional costs and operational risks, including tax implications, of executing Pershing Square’s ideas, and
* The risk of diverting management’s focus away from core business operations over an extended time period to execute such a complex transaction, particularly in the current environment.

One additional earlier concern, relating to the adverse impact the company believed the proposed structure would have on Target’s debt ratings, borrowing costs and liquidity, has been partially addressed in the current version of Pershing Square’s proposal, though we believe meaningful risk remains.

“Target has a strong record of engagement and open dialogue with shareholders over many years and we respect the spirit with which Pershing Square’s real estate ideas were presented,” said Gregg Steinhafel, president and chief executive officer of Target Corporation. “We gave these ideas a full and complete review, including numerous meetings between Pershing Square and Target senior executives and a meeting between Bill Ackman, the Managing Member of Pershing Square, and several members of Target’s Board. Target does not share Pershing Square’s perspective that execution of this proposed transaction will generate measurable shareholder value over time and believes the risks, particularly in light of the serious challenges facing our retail and credit card segments in 2008 and 2009, are significant. Both our Board and executive team remain firmly committed to generating value for our shareholders and expect to achieve this objective over the next 3 to 5 years through our continued, thoughtful focus on our current strategy and core business operations.”

So, let’s review. Here is Ackman’s proposal:

Let’s address Targets concerns:

– Market Value: Ackman specifically gives a range of potential values in the presentation based on what current retailers / REIT’s are selling for today. To imply these are wrong is not logical. The market values them at what they value them at, it isn’t wrong.

– Flexibility: This is why Ackman recommended to a partial 20% IPO of the REIT. This would allow management gauge how it is valued by the market and still allow management the financial flexibility having an 80% owned REIT subsidiary comes with. It also, as a REIT increases the flexibility of Target to buy real estate from current landholders

– Frictional costs and operational risks: Can anyone tell me what that means? What operational risk? You are your REIT’s sole tenant. The only “risk” is if you decide not to pay yourself rent. As far as frictional costs, this is just irrelevant. If you are going to monetize a currently worthless asset (in the market’s view), then of course there will be costs involved but they will be dwarfed by the asset’s new value.

– Focus: Can’t walk and chew gum? This borders on absurd. You are creating a REIT with one tenant, yourself. Lock the lawyers in a room for a week, let them draw up the paperwork and sign it at lunch one day. Tell me how the fashion departments purchasing manager’s job will be affect by the REIT plan. Please anyone tell me what I am missing..

Here is the sentence every current shareholder ought to pay very close attention to. “Both our Board and executive team remain firmly committed to generating value for our shareholders and expect to achieve this objective over the next 3 to 5 years….”. Basically, the next 2-3 years are dead money.

Think about it. When do you expect a meaningful turnaround in the macro environment. 1 year? 2? If it takes two years, Target will not turn ahead of it. If anything, one could argue Target may take longer as any ground they made on Wal-Mart (WMT) the previous 4 years was wiped out and then some in the last one.

Target is viewed as a pricey store. True or not is irrelevant. Perception is reality. Just ask Citi’s (C) CEO Pandit. It takes a ton of advertising to change the perception of a retailer and in a recession and dreadful retail environment, the cash to do that is limited.

Ackman’s plan allows shareholder to profit in the short run from the REIT spin and then profit down the road when retail turns around. Win win.

Target management ought to know….Ackman is not going away. Why? He is right and has more invested in the company than they do. He was right with McDonalds (MCD) when it spun Chipotle (CMG) (it should be noted that the CFO of McDonald’s at the time just joined Pershing).

Mr. Ackman will take time and come out guns blazing after the new year….

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WMT, MCD, none
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Lazard Likes Ackman’s Plan for Target ($tgt)

Bill Ackman’s plan for Target (TGT) is getting good reviews out there..

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Here is the Lazard Research Piece:

Here is Ackman’s latest proposal


Disclosure (“none” means no position):None
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