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How Did I Miss This? Gates Talking to AutoNation $$

Sorry, did not read close enough last night. AutoNation (AN) shares are up 10% – 15% today and foks have been emailing me asking why. This little nuggett in Bill Gates 13D filed last night gives a clue.

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The filing:

From time to time the Reporting Persons have engaged and expect in the future to engage in discussions with management of the Issuer concerning the Reporting Persons’ investments in the Issuer and the business and strategic direction of the Issuer. The Reporting Persons may also engage in discussions with other shareholders of the Issuer to discuss matters of mutual interest, which may include discussions regarding the strategic direction of the Issuer and opportunities to enhance shareholder value.

The Reporting Persons intend to continuously review their investment in the Issuer and reserve the right to change their plans and intentions at any time, as they deem appropriate, and to take any and all actions that they may deem appropriate to maximize the value of their investment. The Reporting Persons may at any time and from time to time, in privately negotiated transactions or otherwise, acquire additional securities of the Issuer and/or dispose of all or a portion of the securities of the Issuer that the Reporting Persons now own or may hereafter acquire. The Reporting Persons may formulate other plans or proposals regarding the Issuer or its securities to the extent deemed advisable by the Reporting Persons in light of their general investment policies, market conditions, subsequent developments affecting the Issuer (including but not limited to the attitude of the Issuer’s board of directors, management and other shareholders) and the general business and future prospects of the Issuer.

Except as set forth herein, the Reporting Persons have no current intention, plan or proposal with respect to: (a) the acquisition by any person of additional securities of the Issuer, or the disposition of securities of the Issuer; (b) an extraordinary corporate transaction, such as a merger, reorganization or liquidation, involving the Issuer or any of its subsidiaries; (c) a sale or transfer of a material amount of assets of the Issuer or any of its subsidiaries; (d) any change in the present board of directors or management of the Issuer, including any plans or proposals to change the number or term of directors or to fill any existing vacancies on the board; (e) any material change in the present capitalization or dividend policy of the Issuer; (f) any other material change in the Issuer’s business or corporate structure, including but not limited to, if the Issuer is a registered closed-end investment company, any plans or proposals to make any changes in its investment policy for which a vote is required by section 13 of the Investment Company Act of 1940; (g) changes in the Issuer’s charter, bylaws or instruments corresponding thereto or other actions which may impede the acquisition of control of the Issuer by any person; (h) causing a class of securities of the Issuer to be delisted from a national securities exchange or to cease to be authorized to be quoted in an inter-dealer quotation system of a registered national securities association; (i) a class of equity securities of the Issuer becoming eligible for termination of registration pursuant to section 12(g)(4) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934; or (j) any action similar to any of those enumerated above.

So now we have both Gates and Sears Holdings (SHLD) Eddie Lampert in discussions with management………hmmmmmmm

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN, SHLD


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Bill Gates Files 13D in AutoNation $$

Gates and Lampert are buying up all that is left it seems…

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In an SEC filing tonight, Bill Gates through Cascade Investments and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation discosed they hold a total of 12.2% of AutoNation.

Sears Holdings (SHLD) Edward Lampert owns 46%.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHLD, AN

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Lampert Buys More AutoNation Shares $$

Almost immediately disclosing his agreement on additional ownership with AutoNation (AN), ESL and Eddie Lampert resumed buying shares.

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On 2/2 Lampert picked up just over 400k shares at $9.40 a piece.

SEC Filing Lampert now holds just over 45% of the outstanding shares. Between Bill Gates and Lampert, they now hold in excess of 55% of the outstanding shares.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN

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My Optimistic Reader Returns

Trying to think of a good moniker for my optimistic reader who sends me these excellent posts…idea?

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The reader writes:

I saw this and would agree with Jackson that auto sales are the key. If you could get 10-15% increased sales from improved credit then I think the market as a whole would take this as a very strong positive. This would be the signal that the market needs to flip from thoughts of a dire “end to the world” to one of “on the track to recovery”.

The best investors look at what key individuals are doing every day. I get Google alerts to about 200 corp managers and portfolio managers. These are individuals whose track records I have screened and found to be much, much better than the rest. Most look to see what a guru is buying, but have no idea as to what that individual’s investment is really like. So, most remain in constant confusion of looking for sound bites-Buffett buys BNI and don’t know how to determine what Buffett sees. You have to study people and once you see reported activity or comments, you must be able to place Buffett in context with Berkowitz and these “gurus” in context with others as well as market valuations to get the full picture. You must go deep enough to be able to judge the investment judgment of these “gurus”.

The world is about individuals. We tend to lose track that companies are run by individuals and that track records for PG or AN are only in a minor fashion the track records of their very different industries. Track records of companies are mostly the track record of a single individual, the CEO and the culture he/she imposes on the machinery of a business. Once your focus is on the people and a business cycle of ~5yr, then you begin to listen to only individuals like Mike Jackson or Warren Buffett and the like. You tend to ignore the wealth of worthless information thrown about and focus only on the valuable tidbits. It is these tidbits you string together in a cohesive line of investment analysis. I take Bruce Flatt’s activity, add the story of Moulder and Vaughn buying real estate in London and juxtapose with Mike Jackson’s commentary within my over all process and get a picture that we are on the verge of a major change in market psychology for the better. Psychology = trust/lack of trust = Liquidity and Credit. Flip psychology to a positive track and the world suddenly has a different perspective-the market soars.

Here is the WSJ Article he references (for the record I am long AutoNation, I have no idea if the reader is):

Posted on Fri, Jan. 30, 2009

AutoNation (AN) looking to reverse sales slide

BY PATRICK DANNER

Coming off a dismal three months for car sales, Fort Lauderdale’s AutoNation is counting on federal aid to jumpstart the moribund car business.

AutoNation, the nation’s largest seller of cars, hopes a new plan by the Federal Reserve to loosen credit will be the cure for consumers who haven’t been able to buy a car because they can’t get a loan.

”I really see a tipping point in the first quarter, in February, with TALF,” said Mike Jackson, AutoNation’s chairman and chief executive, referring to the Federal Reserve’s Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility.

The U.S. central bank, as early as next week, could start offering up to $200 billion in loans to investors that hold securities backed by pools of auto loans and other debt. The intent of the program is to get banks and other institutions lending. Jackson blamed Lehman Brothers’ September bankruptcy for freezing credit markets.

”We do believe there is a possibility of improvement in March if credit really begins to thaw,” Jackson said. ”We could have a lift in [sales] of 10, 15, 20 percent in a very short period of time if we could get some level of normal credit” for borrowers.

Any improvement can’t come soon enough for the nation’s largest automotive retailer, which just endured what Jackson called the most difficult period in his 40-year career.

”Never in the history of the automobile business has there been a collapse in sales for every brand and every manufacturer in every part of the country,” Jackson said. “Everything surprised me in the fourth quarter.”

AutoNation’s revenue plunged by a third to $2.7 billion, primarily on the drastic drop in sales of new and used vehicles. For the year, AutoNation recorded revenue of $14.1 billion — its smallest in a decade.

AutoNation sold 45,400 vehicles last quarter, about 30,000 fewer than in the same period in 2007. That was nearly a 40 percent drop, but better than the 49 percent slide the industry experienced, noted AutoNation President Mike Maroone. Unit sales of used vehicles were off 21 percent. In Florida, where AutoNation operates dealerships under the Maroone name, sales were off 50 percent, Maroone said.

Still, AutoNation turned a profit for the quarter after sustaining a $1.4 billion loss in the third quarter from writing down the value of some of its dealerships — which ended a string of 34 straight quarters in the black. The company earned $67.1 million, or 38 cents a share, aided by a tax benefit and the repurchase of debt. For the year, it lost $1.2 billion.

Earnings from continuing operations, which exclude special items, was 12 cents a share — narrowly beating the average 11.5-cent estimate of 12 analysts polled by Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, AutoNation announced it achieved $200 million in annualized cost savings, double the reductions forecast in July. The company trimmed its workforce by about 3,700 people last year, significantly reduced advertising spending and cut the number of stores.

As much as 80 percent of the cost reductions are considered permanent rather than temporary, said Michael Short, AutoNation’s chief financial officer, during a conference call with analysts.

At the end of the year, AutoNation had an 84-day supply of new vehicles, up from 52 days at the end of 2007. By comparison, Maroone said, the industry had a 119-day supply at the end of 2008.

To shrink inventory, and in turn lower the interest it pays carmakers while those vehicles sit on its stores’ lots, AutoNation earlier this month said it was cutting orders of new vehicles by as much as 60 percent.

On Thursday, Jackson acknowledged AutoNation has encountered some resistance from manufacturers. General Motors and Chrysler, in particular, have implemented programs requiring dealers to buy more inventory to receive incentives on the inventory they want, he said. ”That has definitely created some friction,” Jackson said. ”But we’re not playing that game.” AutoNation is getting the vehicles it wants, he added.

GM spokeswoman Susan Garontakos said she had no comment on Jackson’s remarks. ”No one forces a dealer to do anything,” she said. “A dealer can decide to do that or not.”

Said Chrysler spokeswoman Carrie McElwee: “We’re not pushing back. We’re really talking to [dealers] about the programs and initiatives we have for 2009.”

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN

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Monday’s Links

AutoNation, The Case Against Keynes, PreTaxes

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– Tells GM & Chrysler were to stick theirnew incentive requirements

From Mises

– So, not being able to do your taxes now makes you a lock for a cabinet position in the Obama administration?

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Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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AutoNation Reports Powerful Quarter $$

Considering the credit markets and the economy, this earnings report from AutoNation (AN) is simply fantastic.

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AutoNation, Inc. (NYSE: AN) , America’s largest automotive retailer, today reported 2008 fourth quarter net income from continuing operations of $70 million, or $0.40 per share, compared to $51 million, or $0.28 per share, in the prior year. In the quarter, the Company had a net benefit from certain items of $48 million or $0.28 per share, including a net positive tax adjustment of $0.18 per share and a gain on the repurchase of the Company’s senior notes of $0.14 per share. Additionally, other items had an unfavorable impact of $0.04 per share. After adjusting for these items as disclosed in the attached financial tables, net income from continuing operations for the 2008 fourth quarter was $22 million or $0.12 per share.

Fourth quarter 2008 revenue totaled $2.7 billion, compared to $4.1 billion in the year-ago period, driven primarily by lower vehicle sales. In the fourth quarter, total U.S. industry new vehicle retail unit sales declined 49%, based on CNW Research data. In comparison, in the fourth quarter AutoNation’s new vehicle unit sales declined 40%.

Commenting on the fourth quarter, Mike Jackson, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said, “The fourth quarter was negatively impacted by the credit panic triggered on September 15 by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. Automotive retail sales collapsed from one day to the next as credit for our customers was withdrawn from the market. This panic continued to erode consumer confidence and accelerated the decline in the U.S. economy and auto retail market. In the fourth quarter, AutoNation continued to remain profitable even with a U.S. SAAR near 10 million new vehicle units, a 27 year low.” Jackson also stated, “When we saw the auto retail market deteriorate in the beginning of 2008, AutoNation began to identify cost reduction opportunities. In July we announced our plan to reduce cost by $100 million on an annual run rate basis and have successfully achieved this goal – a significant accomplishment in its own right. With the collapse of sales in the second half of September, additional actions became necessary in the fourth quarter to further reduce costs. We have successfully implemented additional cost reduction actions totaling approximately $100 million on an annualized run rate basis. Taken together, AutoNation’s total annualized cost savings of $200 million demonstrates our Company’s ability to effectively address the challenges created by the credit panic.”

Jackson added, “Despite the severely depressed sales environment, AutoNation continues to generate solid cash flow which allowed the Company to reduce its non-vehicle debt by $155 million during the quarter and close the fourth quarter with a strong cash position of $110 million. Full-year debt reduction totals approximately three-quarters of a billion dollars, consisting of $517 million of non-vehicle debt and $195 million of vehicle floor plan debt. As a result, the Company remained in compliance with all financial covenants in its debt agreements as of December 31, 2008 with a leverage ratio of 2.45 versus 2.78 a year ago.”

Looking forward, Jackson also stated, “We agree with industry projections that the 2009 SAAR will be in the range of 11 million new vehicle units with obvious weakness in the first half of the year. In this environment, we believe we will be able to manage within all financial covenants.”

AutoNation provides additional detail on its three operating segments: Domestic, Import, and Premium Luxury. The Domestic segment is comprised of stores that sell vehicles manufactured by General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler; the Import segment is comprised of stores that sell vehicles manufactured primarily by Toyota, Honda, and Nissan; and the Premium Luxury segment is comprised of stores that sell vehicles manufactured primarily by Mercedes, BMW, and Lexus.

Segment Results for the Quarter

— Domestic -Domestic segment income (1) was $14 million compared to year-ago segment income of $36 million. Fourth quarter Domestic retail new vehicle unit sales declined 44%. In comparison, U.S. industry Domestic retail new vehicle unit sales declined 52% according to CNW Research.

— Import -Import segment income was $20 million compared to year-ago segment income of $52 million. Fourth quarter Import retail new vehicle unit sales declined 39%. In comparison, U.S. industry Import new vehicle retail unit sales declined 44% according to CNW Research.

— Premium Luxury -Premium Luxury segment income was $39 million compared to year-ago segment income of $59 million. Fourth quarter Premium Luxury retail new vehicle unit sales declined 35%. In comparison, U.S. industry Premium Luxury retail new vehicle unit sales declined 34% according to CNW Research.

(1) Segment income is defined as operating income less floor plan interest expense

For the full year ended December 31, 2008, the Company reported net loss from continuing operations of $1.23 billion or $6.89 per share, compared to net income from continuing operations of $289 million or $1.44 per share in the prior year. After adjusting for the impairment charges and certain other items as disclosed in the attached financial tables, net income from continuing operations for the full year ended December 31, 2008 was $181 million or $1.02 per share, compared to $277 million or $1.38 per share in the prior year. The Company’s revenue for the year ended December 31, 2008 totaled $14.1 billion, down 19% compared to $17.3 billion in the prior year.

So, we are in the 10,000 years flood and the company is still making money. Competitors are closing their doors at a breakneck pace. The company is cash flow positive and paying off debt. AutoNation is going to emerge from this stronger than ever and in a far more dominant market position.

Shareholders ought to be thrilled…

Speaking of shareholders, AutoNation also signed an agreement with Eddie Lampert and ESL Investments. Read it here

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN

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ESL and Lampert Sign Voting Agreement with AutoNation, Toyota and Honda $$

Lampert currently owns 45% of AutoNation (AN)

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First, here is the agreement with Honda (HMC) regarding the ESL voting agreement.

American Honda Motor Co., Inc.
1919 Torrance Boulevard
Torrance, CA 90501
Attention: Dealer Development
RE: AutoNation, Inc. Framework Agreement
Dear Mr. Colliver:
Reference is made to that certain Framework Agreement, dated as of June 9, 1998 and as amended from time to time (the “Framework Agreement”), by and between American Honda Motor Co., Inc. (“American Honda”) and AutoNation, Inc. (formerly known as Republic Industries, Inc.) (“AutoNation”).
American Honda hereby consents to the acquisition by ESL Investments, Inc. and any person, entity or group that directly, or indirectly though one or more intermediaries, controls, or is controlled by, or is under common control with, ESL Investments, Inc. (for the avoidance of doubt, other than AutoNation and its subsidiaries) (collectively, the “ESL Parties”) of fifty percent (50%) or more of the outstanding common stock, par value $0.01 per share, of AutoNation (the “Common Stock”) (the “Acquisition”), upon the following terms and conditions which shall only apply at such time and for so long as the ESL Parties own fifty percent (50%) or more of the then outstanding Common Stock:
1. At each meeting of the stockholders of AutoNation, whether an annual meeting or a special meeting, however called, and at each adjournment or postponement of any such meeting (a “Stockholders’ Meeting”), and in all other circumstances in which a vote, consent or other approval (including, without limitation, by written consent) is sought by or from the stockholders of AutoNation (any such vote, consent or approval, a “Stockholders’ Consent”), the ESL Parties shall appear at such Stockholders’ Meeting or otherwise cause all shares of Common Stock owned by the ESL Parties to be counted as present for the purpose of establishing a quorum.
At each Stockholders’ Meeting and in connection with the execution of each Stockholders’ Consent, in either case at such times that the ESL Parties own in excess of fifty percent (50%) of the then outstanding Common Stock, all shares of Common Stock owned by the ESL Parties in excess of fifty percent (50%) of the then outstanding Common Stock on the applicable record date (the “Additional Shares”) shall be voted on each matter proposed in the same proportion as all outstanding shares of Common Stock not owned by the ESL Parties are actually voted on such matter (it being understood that, in connection with any Stockholders’ Consent, shares of Common Stock not owned by the ESL Parties that abstain or are not present will be treated as shares abstaining or not present, as the case may be).

2. AutoNation shall use best efforts to provide that its board of directors shall be comprised of a majority of directors who qualify as “independent” directors under the listing standards of Rule 303A.02(b) of The New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) Listed Company Manual, as in effect on the date hereof, and who would qualify as “independent” directors of ESL Investments, Inc. under the listing standards of Rule 303A.02(b) of the NYSE Listed Company Manual, as in effect on the date hereof, if ESL Investments, Inc. was an NYSE-listed company; provided, however, that if AutoNation should fail to comply with the foregoing requirement due to (i) a vacancy on its board of directors or (ii) a member of its board of directors ceasing to meet such independence standards due to circumstances beyond AutoNation’s reasonable control, AutoNation shall regain compliance with the foregoing requirement by the later of (A) its next annual stockholders’ meeting or (B) 180 days from the occurrence of the event that caused the failure to comply.

3. The parties hereto agree to the following:
(a) No ESL Party shall knowingly acquire any direct or indirect ownership interest in any Honda or Acura dealership except through or in conjunction with AutoNation (which acquisition will be subject to the Framework Agreement), provided that the ESL Parties may make or acquire passive investments in public companies, mutual funds and similar entities where such investments by the ESL Parties represent cumulative less than five percent (5%) interest in any Honda or Acura dealership in which such entity is so invested. For purposes of this Section 3(a), any acquisition of a direct or indirect ownership interest in any Honda or Acura dealership by Edward S. Lampert or any person who is in the Immediate Family (as such term is defined in the American Honda Motor Co., Inc. Policy on the Ownership of Multiple Honda and Acura Dealerships) of Edward S. Lampert shall be attributable to the ESL Parties.
(b) The ESL Parties, AutoNation and American Honda agree that any dispute arising under this letter agreement shall be resolved by the dispute resolution procedures set forth in Section 8 of the Framework Agreement.

(c) The ESL Parties acknowledge and agree to abide by the limits on representation of AutoNation on any Honda and Acura Dealer organizations as set forth in Section 3 of the Framework Agreement.

(d) The terms of this letter agreement shall be governed by and construed according to the laws of the State of New York without applying is conflicts of law principles.

(e) The ESL Parties may not pledge or grant a security interest in the Common Stock owned by the ESL Parties except as provided in the following sentence or with the consent of American Honda in accordance with the “American Honda Motor Co., Inc. Policy on the Granting of Security Interest in the Shares of Any Entity That Owns an Interest in a Honda or Acura Dealership,” a copy of which is attached as Exhibit A hereto. American Honda hereby agrees that the ESL Parties may grant a security interest in the proceeds of the sale of the shares of Common Stock owned by the ESL Parties, provided that the grantee agrees as follows:
(i) that it will never attempt to vote such shares (except to approve an American Honda-approved transfer of such shares) or exercise managerial control over any Listed Dealership; and

(ii) that its interest in such shares shall be limited to the proceeds derived from the sale of such shares to the extent of the outstanding balance of the note secured by such shares.
(f) The ESL Parties agree to abide by the remedies set forth in the Framework Agreement and, with respect to any ownership interest they may have in a Listed Dealership that becomes subject to any such remedies, they will cooperate in the execution of such remedies (for example, the purchase of a Listed Dealership by American Honda as ordered by an arbitrator) and not oppose any such remedy except as part of AutoNation’s participation in arbitration pursuant to Section 8 of the Framework Agreement.

(g) The ESL Parties shall be jointly and severally responsible for compliance by each ESL Party with the provisions of Section 3 of this letter agreement.

(h) The ESL Parties that currently own Common Stock are listed on Exhibit B hereto.
4. AutoNation and American Honda hereby reaffirm the terms and conditions of the Framework Agreement, which they agree shall continue in existence without modification. This letter agreement (a) may not be amended, waived or modified except by an instrument in writing signed by American Honda, AutoNation and the ESL Parties and (b) may be executed in one or more counterparts, each of which when executed shall be deemed to be an original but which when taken together shall constitute one and the same letter agreement.

5. In light of the consent given pursuant to this letter agreement and in consideration of the continuing adherence of AutoNation and the ESL Parties to the terms hereof, American Honda will not exercise any rights pursuant to Section 1.3.5 and/or Section 7 of the Framework Agreement that it might otherwise have as a result of the Acquisition. Nothing in this letter agreement shall be construed as consent to a “Rule 13e-3 transaction” as that term is defined in Rule 13e-3 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

6. All communications and notices pursuant to this letter agreement shall be in writing and be given in person or by means of facsimile or other means of wire transmission, by overnight courier or by mail and shall be addressed as follows:

If to American Honda:
American Honda Motor Co., Inc.
Honda Division
1919 Torrance Boulevard
Torrance, CA 90501
Attention: Dealer Development
Facsimile: (310) 222-7065

with a copy to:
Associate General Counsel
Honda North America, Inc.
Law Department
700 Van Ness Avenue
Torrance, CA 90509-2206
Facsimile: (310) 781-4970

If to AutoNation:
AutoNation, Inc.
110 S.E. 6th St.
Fort Lauderdale, FL 33301
Attention: President
Facsimile: (954) 769-4666

with a copy to:
AutoNation, Inc.
110 S.E. 6th St.
Fort Lauderdale, FL 33301
Attention: General Counsel
Facsimile: (954) 769-6340

If to the ESL Parties:
ESL Investments, Inc
200 Greenwich Avenue
Greenwich, CT 06830
Attention: William C. Crowley
Facsimile: 203-861-9834

Read the letter to Toyota (TM)

ESL Voting Agreement

ESL Investments, Inc
200 Greenwich Avenue
Greenwich, CT 06830
Attention: William C. Crowley
RE: ESL Voting Agreement
Dear Mr. Crowley:
Reference is made to that certain letter agreement, dated as of the date hereof (the “Honda Consent”), among American Honda Motor Co., Inc. (“American Honda”), AutoNation, Inc. (“AutoNation”) and the ESL Parties (as defined in the Honda Consent) and to that certain letter agreement, dated as of the date hereof (the “Toyota Consent”), among Toyota Motor Sales, U.S.A., Inc. (“Toyota”), AutoNation and ESL (as defined in the Toyota Consent).
For the period provided in Section 3 below, notwithstanding any provision to the contrary contained in the Honda Consent and Toyota Consent and at such time as ESL Investments, Inc. and any person, entity or group that directly, or indirectly through one or more intermediaries, controls, or is controlled by, or is under common control with, ESL Investments, Inc. (for the avoidance of doubt, other than AutoNation and its subsidiaries) (together with ESL Investments, Inc., the “ESL Affiliated Parties”) own forty-five percent (45%) or more of the outstanding common stock, par value $0.01 per share, of AutoNation (the “Common Stock”):
1. At each meeting of the stockholders of AutoNation, whether an annual meeting or a special meeting, however called, and at each adjournment or postponement of any such meeting (a “Stockholders’ Meeting”), and in all other circumstances in which a vote, consent or other approval (including, without limitation, by written consent) is sought by or from the stockholders of AutoNation (any such vote, consent or approval, a “Stockholders’ Consent”), the ESL Affiliated Parties shall appear at such Stockholders’ Meeting or otherwise cause all shares of Common Stock owned by the ESL Affiliated Parties to be counted as present for the purpose of establishing a quorum.
2. At each Stockholders’ Meeting and in connection with the execution of each Stockholders’ Consent, all shares of Common Stock owned by the ESL Affiliated Parties in excess of forty-five percent (45%) of the then outstanding Common Stock on the applicable record date (the “Additional Shares”) shall be voted on each matter proposed in the same proportion as all outstanding shares of Common Stock not owned by the ESL Affiliated Parties are actually voted on such matter (it being understood that, in connection with any Stockholders’ Consent, shares of Common Stock not owned by the ESL Affiliated Parties that abstain or are not present will be treated as shares abstaining or not present, as the case may be).

3. This letter agreement shall commence as of the date first set forth above and shall continue in full force and effect until January 28, 2010 unless the parties mutually agree to extend the agreement. The termination of this letter agreement shall have no effect on the Honda Consent or the Toyota Consent.
The terms of this letter agreement shall be governed by and construed according to the laws of the State of Delaware without applying its conflicts of law principles.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN

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AutoNation’s Mike Jackson Video and World Congress Presentation

Let’s put the noise aside. AutoNation (AN) and CarMax (KMX), a Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) holding are picking up market share daily as smaller dealerships close by the bucket-full. When auto buying resumes (it will, they do not last forever) both will profit handsomely as buyer will have fewer option to buy from.


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On CNBC

Mike Jackson CNBC 1-21-2008 from http://marccannon.vox.com/

On Bloomberg..

The following is a must see…

Jackson’s World Congress Presentation:

AutoNation’s Mike Jackson at World Congress

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Business Presentations & Slid lending Chrysler



Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN

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Reader Emails Answered: Oil, Financials, Recession, Dollar etc..

Been getting a slew of emails the last months and rather than say the same things over and over, thought I would address them in a post since the themes are all similar..

Wall St. Newsletters

1- Financials:
Will not be touching them and are currently waiting for Wells Fargo (WFC) to rally a bit to sell out of it. Why? I no longer know the rules of investing in them. TARP and its requirements change almost daily. Going forward, the term (interest) the Gov’t demands and the shareholder dilution that accompanies them will become more onerous. That is bad news. Also, the second body blow from housing is due this year and next. That means more suffering for financials and shareholders.

Now, this does not mean I will never invest in them again, just that I think in 2010 we will still be able to buy them at these levels or lower. Is there value in financials? I just cannot quantify it as long as we have shifting rules from the Gov’t.

2- The Market
Up to 9000, then back to 8000 all year. The market will bounce like a ball but never really go anywhere. I think the risk is to the downside as the recession worsens. Unemployment ought to pass 10%, GDP will be negative for the year and credit is still drying up. So, given those, how do we go to 10,000?

That being said, it is a traders market. If you sell options you can make some money here. If you trade the rang you can also. If you are not a trader, don’t try to be one. Be who you are

3- Oil
Have written a lot about it recently. Why? Demand has fallen true, but the unreported story is production has fallen off a cliff also. Oil is not like a faucet. It cannot just be turned back on. A drilling project shuttered because of low prices today cannot just be flipped back on when prices recover. There is a tremendous lag. As crazy as prices were at $147, they are equally as crazy at $47. US production continues to fall, Mexico’s has plummeted and OPEC is more in power than ever. That only serve to heighten the Geo-Political risk of oil. Translation? One wacko can cause a global oil price spike.

I see the most value here now, or at least a market unfettered by arbitrary Gov’t intervention. Yes, I know that most foreign oil companies are govt’t owned, what I am saying is that if you buy oil today, your ownership cannot be diluted by the gov’t like it can and is in equities today.

4- The dollar and inflation….
Has anyone ever seen a scenario when massive supply of an item has not caused a devaluation of it? How can the current US Gov’t’s “running the dollar printing presses full tilt” like they are now NOT lead to a devaluation of the dollar? Here is the problem. The gov’t WANTS inflation to return. It will increase home prices, increase to prices manufacturers get for their goods, increase equity values etc. The problem is, gov’t always overdoes it. That means that they will pump too much into the system and inflation will get away from them.

That genie, once out of the bottle is only pot back in by inflicting more pain on the economy. It then becomes a vicious circle…

5- What to buy?
Right now? I am buying nothing but oil. Why? As much as we have sen the rules of the game change in the past year, still more is due. TARP requirements are, the tax code is, a stimulus is coming (we do not know the composition of it) and a Democratic Congress has plenty on its agenda. What looks good today may not tomorrow. Does this mean you should not buy anything? No. There of course will be plenty of equities that do wonderful in the next year. I just think there will be plenty more that do not.

Management now matters more than ever. Keep it in mind when buying.

Am I selling? Only the financials (sold most in the fall). I still like what I hold, Dow Chemical (DOW), AutoNation (AN), ADM (ADM), Borders (BGP), Oil (DXO), (DBO), Phillip Morris International (PM), Sears Holdings (SHLD) and GE (GE). I do have misgiving about Immelt at GE but am willing to wait as I think they will be a big beneficiary of infrastructure stimulus.

All dominate their businesses (except Borders and Sears, they are plays on the majority shareholders Ackman and Lampert) and are picking up market share. Dow will lead us out of recession as whatever needs to be made, they make the stuff that makes it and it yields 10%.

Wait and see….

This is the environment that one can make purchases that make one look like a genius for decades, it just takes a keen eye….


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Bill Gates Continues Buying AutoNation Shares $$

It’s been a few weeks since the last purchase of AutoNation (AN) shares for Gates’ Cascade Investments and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

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On 1/7 Bill Gates, through his Foundation a and Cascade Investments each added another 50,000 shares of the auto retailer.

Total holdings now come to 21.7 million shares or 12.2% of the total.


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Did New Cars Sales Bottom in November?

Read the following article….

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AutoLine Reports

Yes, car sales look terrible for December. But that’s if you compare sales to the same month a year ago. The market has changed so much from then that I would argue you can’t get an accurate read on what’s going on right now, if you’re only measuring today’s sales against 12 months ago. A better gauge is a running average over the last 6 months. Car sales are in a terrible state, but the bottom may actually have been reached in November. In fact, sales were up by nearly 150,000 units or nearly 20% in December vs. November.

January could be better. GM and Chrysler received the first installments on their bridge loans, which instilled some level of confidence in the market. GMAC received TARP money which will help stabilize quite a number of dealers. GM immediately began offering low interest loans and resuming national television advertising.

That’s not to say the market is on a rebound. But it may well be that we hit the low point two months ago and are starting to inch up

So, for my investment in AutoNation (AN) and Berkshire’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett’s in CarMax (KMX) this means the 10,000 year flood may have crested and may be receding. What is left? Over a thousand fewer dealers, pent up demand and and TARP backed loans from the automakers.

Of course it is early to tell if this is a one month anomaly or a trend but this is certain, it is the first sign of good news in some time.

AutoNation CEO Mike Jackson will update investors at the end of the month when earnings are released. Expect earnings to be dismal, what is important is what he says about the current environment and what he sees going forward..


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2009: Fear and Loathing $$

2009 is shaping up to make 2008 look like the good ‘ole days…

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Why?

Let’s look at some issues…

STIMULUS: Won’t it make a difference?
No. government stimulus is great in that is provides a nice immediate effect. It has a tremendous long term cost though. For the gov’t to hire it must either take from others (more taxes) or just print money itself. Neither is a good option long term. It gives us all a warm fuzzy in thinking that Barack is taking care of all of us but gov’t jobs are never the answer. It is a credit card mentality from the gov’t. It only works until the bill comes due….stimulating the private sector to create jobs is a far better option. It take a bit longer to work, but the results, far from costing money provide it for all…

Let’s reverse the whole scenario. What out there points to a recovery? A million jobs paving roads? Really? If the employment rate is expected to be 10% next year, then any jobs created by the gov’t will be more than offset by losses in the private sector.

To use the credit card mentality again, the govt’t will use its credit card to create demand (jobs) while at the same time losing income (from other job losses). Can you imagine how this scenario ends well? Me either..

HOUSING: A rebound?
Hell no!! Housing still has tremendous downside. Why? Housing inventory is still at 12 months and will only grow. The option arm nightmare is just beginning. These people cannot be helped by lower interest rates as they are not paying the minimum interest payment now on the loans. This is going to lead to another tidal wave of homes coming onto the market in the next year or two. Unlike the subprime defaults, these defaults will hit the $500k and over homes that people bought with 5% or less down. The already squeezed middle class is going to get whacked again…

A scenario in which we see 14 or 15 months of inventory out there is not all that out of the realm of probability

Much has been said about the banks not lending the TARP money. They aren’t because they know they have hundred of billions of dollars of losses coming up in mortgage products from these loans coming up. They’ll need the cash.

20% down..
The last two years of the housing boom were fueled by new mortgage products that allowed buyers to put in most cases less than 10% down for a home. These loans are gone. We are back to the 20% down rule. Were is it coming from? Investments? With the Dow (.DJI) and S&P (.INX) off 40% this year the stock market will not be a source of funds. Jobs? Unemployment will most likely hit 10% next year so it will not be from jobs or singing bonuses and people worried about losing a job are not going to tap savings for a new home. In short there is not a source of funds for a down-payment.

Even if we have willing buyers, were are they going to get the money?

After the last housing bust in the early 1990’s it took 9 years for home prices to return to pre-bust levels. The boom then was nothing like the current one so to expect prices to return and make millions of underwater home owners profitable when they sell anytime before 2017 is delusional.

INFLATION: Up ,Up and Away
What happens when the supply of something grows unrestrained? It value falls. Thus is the dollar. As it s value falls, more of them are required to purchase items. Inflations ensues. How do we stop inflation? Raise interest rates to increase demand for dollars, oops, there goes the housing fix currently being tried…

THE CONSUMER:
Retrenching……If you have watched the news in the past month shopper after shopper is saying they are cutting back on spending and not using credit. That is the right decision for them, but bad for growth today. The consumer is shell shocked and will not dip their toes in the water again until they are 100% sure it is safe. That, will be a while. A poor economic climate in 2009 will only worsen the mood and the fear they feel, causing further retrenchment.

Part of this problem is the inevitable mood swing surrounding a new administration. This does have a severe downside though. “Hope” was Obama’s message and the “it is a new day” mantra has been restated over and over by followers. Here is the problem, even if Obama does everything right, 2009 will still be a lousy year. That optimism will turn to a vicious pessimism as consumers will then resort to a “if he can’t help us no one can” mentality.

The consumer will stash money away, reduce debt and live less frivolously. Again, all good things long term but very bad short term for business.

What to buy?
Personally if you are going into stocks, buy things people have to have with a nice dividend. Discretionary names ought to suffer as a whole with some individual spectacular successes.

Personally I am looking at oil (DBO), (DXO), shorting the dollar (UDN) and gold (GLD).

Not thinking about selling current holding as ones like Dow Chemical (DOW), GE (GE), Phillip Morris International (PM) all will pay me 9%, 7% and 6% in dividends this year (long term holdings so lower tax rate than regular income). Those that don’t are smaller portions of holdings and success there ought to be met with very nice upside (hopefully).

AutoNation (AN)is capturing market share by the boat load as competitors close. It will emerge as the clear dominant player in all its market. That, and I am still convinced something is going to happen with it, Sears Holdings (SHLD) and AutoZone (AZO).

Borders (BGP) is feast or famine. I think it will be fine but it will take time…CEO George Jones is doing everything right and Ackman will buy it before he let’s it fold.

On the fence for a sell is Wells Fargo (WFC). It is a tough one because there are only really four big banks left (JP Morgan (JPM, Bank of America (BAC), Wells and Citigroup (C) so business will be there. But, the level of business going forward just will not be there as housing suffers for years. I have been selling covered calls on it for three months now and have lowered my cost basis on it 10%. After January expiration, assuming a market rally going into inauguration, I may just take that chance to get out before the 2009 slide begins. If I am called out, my total return in it for the three months will be 12% (dividend included). I’ll take it.


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Mike Jackson and Wilbur Ross on Senate Vote

I’m as sick as the next guy from the constant chatter about the auto bailout for Ford (F) and GM (GM). But, when Jackson ans Ross have something to say, I listen.

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AutoNation CEO Mike Jackson

Wilbur Ross


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN, none
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AutoNation’s Mike Jackson on Auto Bailout

For those not keeping score, AutoNation’s (AN) stock has almost doubles the past month. Jackson makes a good point that banks were bailed out and are now sitting on that money causing the auto crisis. It is a hard argument to dispute as there are buyers, they just cannot get loans for the cars..

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Yesterday on FOX

Today on Bloomberg:


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AutoNation CEO Mike Jackson on Auto Bailout

Why is it that AutoNation’s (AN) Jackson is the only one talking about the necessary elimination of auto dealerships? Most of them would be Ford (F), GM (GM) and Chrysler dealers? $$

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Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN, none
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