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Borders Seeks Reverse Stock Split

This only is am attempt to get Borders (BGP) share price over $1 to avoid delisting on NYSE.

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Mlive reports:

Borders Group Inc. plans to ask its shareholders to approve a reverse stock split at its annual meeting in May, the Ann Arbor-based bookseller said today.

A reverse stock split would combine multiple shares of Borders stock into one in an effort to increase the value of the shares.

Borders stock is currently trading around 50 cents a share. The company faces being delisted by the New York Stock Exchange this summer if it doesn’t get its stock price above $1 a share. A reverse stock split is one way to do that.

In a statement, Borders said it still “reserves the right not to proceed with a reverse stock split if it is not in the best interests of the company.”

Borders will hold its annual shareholders meeting on May 21 at the Ann Arbor Marriott Ypsilanti at Eagle Crest.

Just be aware of it should you see a dramatic price change just this summer for non-results related reasons.

Here is the math, the stock is at $.50 , you have 200 shares and they do a 2 for 1 reverse split. After the split the stock price will now be $1 a share but your number of shares are reduced to 100. No value change in your holdings.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP

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The Digital Deminishment of FedEx and UPS?? $$

So, I read the following article today and it got me thinking. Now, I am not saying either are doomed just that technology may just sap much of the growth from them going forward.

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First the article:

Entrepreneur Frederick W. Smith identified a pressing business need: important documents had to reach their destinations within one or two days. He incorporated a company called Federal Express in June 1971 and began operations in 1973 from Memphis International Airport. On its first night, in April, FedEx shipped 186 packages to 25 U.S. cities.

But all was not well on the international front, and within months, several Arab states had embargoed oil exports to the United States. While this news could have been disastrous for a company that relied on petroleum-fueled transportation, Federal Express stayed alive and became profitable in July 1975, when oil prices finally leveled off.

Status today: 2008 seemed at first to be a deja-vu replay of the company’s nascent years, as soaring fuel prices hurt operating costs. But when prices retreated, FedEx faced a new whammy: The weakening economy has reduced demand for prompt shipping. Average package volume for daily ground shipping dropped 2% year-over-year for the quarter ended Nov. 30. Warning that FedEx faces “some of the worst economic conditions in the company’s 35-year operating history,” CEO Frederick Smith took a 20% pay cut for 2009 as part of a sweeping cost-cutting plan.

So, what am I talking about? Do you know what is one of the fastest growing segment of the shipping giant Amazon.com? Right now it is the Kindle, the digital book. Title are delivered digitally, no shipping. Those titles are coming at the expense of books. How many books? Consider Amazon (AMZN), Barnes & Noble (BKS) and Borders (BGP) sold nearly $6 billion of books online in 2007. Now, admittedly not all are shipped via the two carriers but most are.

To see the digital effect on “hard items” see DVD’s & iTunes. It won’t be long before the majority of overnight shipping for books and dvd’s from all of the above is replaced with “download now”.

Documents. Know a ton of lawyers. Many do Social Security Disability. The social security administration is now accepting digital delivery of the documentation for cases. Insurance companies are also accepting it for personal injury and workers compensation cases. These were previously shipped via FedEx (FDX) & UPS (UPS). Again, only my corner of the world but expand this by tens of millions of claims nationally each year and you get the picture.

There are other examples but I hope the point is getting made.

FedEx and UPS will always lead in the shipment of “things” (toys, good etc) but the shipment of information is rapidly being eliminated from their portfolio. It is a large part of it and with an economy dipping into a prolonged recession, the last thing either need is customers finding a cheaper and faster way to get large amounts of the items they now ship.

Again, this will not destroy either but it does become a bit of a permanent headwind for both.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP, none

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What To Buy? What Doesn’t Need Credit?

As I look at the universe of stock I watch, one thing keeps coming to mind, who’s business does not rely on consumer or corporate credit?

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Today GE (GE) reported:

Fourth-quarter 2008 earnings from continuing operations of $3.9 billion, or $.37 per share before preferred dividend, or $.36 per share attributable to common shareowners. Results included $1.5 billion of after-tax restructuring and other charges, including increased reserves in current environment, which are above the Company’s original plan and the restructuring will lower costs for 2009 and beyond.

For the year, revenue was $183 billion, up 6%, and earnings were $18.1 billion, down 19%. This was the third highest earnings year in GE history.

“In a very tough environment, we delivered fourth quarter business results in line with expectations we provided in December,” Chairman and CEO Jeff Immelt said. “We grew Infrastructure and Media by 3% in the quarter and 10% for the year. Energy Infrastructure led the way in the quarter with 11% segment profit growth driven by continued global demand. Technology Infrastructure grew earnings by 1%, led by 21% growth in Aviation. NBC Universal segment profits declined 6% in fourth quarter as strong cable earnings were offset by declines in the local stations.

“Capital Finance earned $1 billion in the quarter and $8.6 billion for the year,” Immelt said. “We had several negative impacts to earnings in the quarter including increased loss reserves, negative marks and impairments. These charges, along with global benefits, generated a tax credit that more than offset our pre-tax loss. We also originated $48 billion of new assets in the quarter at solid margins.

“We run the company to have a Triple-A credit rating, and we have significantly strengthened our liquidity position,” Immelt said. “We generated $16.7 billion of industrial cash flow from operations, up 5%. We ended the year with $48 billion in total cash, after paying down our commercial paper balance to $72 billion from $88 billion at the third quarter. We used $5.5 billion of our equity offering to meet our stated GE Capital debt-to-equity leverage goal of 7:1 by the end of 2008. Through today, we have been able to fund $29 billion of our $45 billion long-term debt needs for 2009.

Also, Harley Davidson (HOG) reported:

Decreased revenue, net income and earnings per share for the fourth quarter of 2008 compared to the year-ago quarter. The Company said it plans lower motorcycle shipments in 2009 and made public its overall strategy to deal with the current economic environment.

“We have a strong core business anchored by a uniquely powerful brand, but we are certainly not immune to the current economic conditions,” said Jim Ziemer, Chief Executive Officer, Harley-Davidson Inc. “We have a clear strategy to not only deal with the economic conditions, but also strengthen our long-term operations and financial results. We are executing that strategy with confidence and conviction.”

Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year Results

Revenue for the quarter was $1.29 billion compared to $1.39 billion in the year-ago quarter, a 6.8 percent decrease. Net income for the quarter was $77.8 million compared to $186.1 million in the fourth quarter 2007, a decrease of 58.2 percent. Fourth quarter diluted earnings per share were $0.34, a 56.4 percent decrease compared to last year’s $0.78.

Revenue for the full year 2008 was $5.59 billion compared to $5.73 billion in 2007, a 2.3 percent decline. Full-year net income was $654.7 million, compared to $933.8 million in 2007. Diluted earnings per share were $2.79, a decrease of 25.4 percent compared to $3.74 in 2007. The full-year results are below the previously provided company guidance.

For the full year, wholesale shipments of Harley-Davidson® motorcycles were 303,479 units, an 8.2 percent decrease compared to 330,619 units in 2007.

2009 Shipment Plan, Gross Margins

In the first quarter of 2009, the Company plans to ship between 74,000 and 78,000 new Harley-Davidson motorcycles, a 3.0 percent to 8.5 percent increase versus the first quarter of 2008. However, for the full year 2009, the Company plans to ship between 264,000 and 273,000 new Harley-Davidson motorcycles, a 10 percent to 13 percent reduction from 2008.

“We reduced our production levels prudently in 2008, helping our dealers achieve lower inventory levels,” said Ziemer, “and we’re going to show similar discipline in 2009. That’s not only critical for the health of our business, but for our dealers’ businesses, as well.”

For the full year 2009, the Company expects gross margins to be between 30.5 percent and 31.5 percent, which compares to 34.5 percent for the full year 2008. The decrease is primarily due to an expected unfavorable shipment mix versus 2008, the allocation of fixed costs over fewer units, and expected unfavorable foreign currency exchange rates versus 2008. Given the volatility of the current economic environment, the Company also indicated it would not provide EPS guidance for 2009.

Strategy for the Current Economic Environment

The Company is executing a three-part strategy that includes a number of measures to deal with the impact of the recession and worldwide slowdown in consumer demand, with the intent of strengthening its operations and financial results going forward.

“Our strategy is focused on three critical areas: to invest in the Harley-Davidson brand, get our cost-structure right, and obtain funding for HDFS to help our dealers sell motorcycles and our retail customers to buy them,” said Ziemer.

They both run the gamut of customers, GE more corporate and HOG pure consumer. Both are great companies and both are struggling while still profitable. Long term both will be just fine. BUT, this year, I think significant downside is possible. Now, that only means a fantastic buying opportunity later, not the end of the world.

One of the best traders I follow sees GE hitting $7 or $8 in Q2. Here is UpsideTraders site. Should GE be forced to cut the dividend or lose its AAA rating, this is all but assured (that and Immelt is out of a job).  As much as GE says it will not, they also said full year earnings were “in the bag” when they were not. Until they fix the credibility problem, anyone saying anything from Fairfield will be look at very skeptically.

That being said, even if they cut is 50% to $.62 annual, at $8 a share that is a nice 7% yield, still a screaming buy. I just cannot commit new money there now until I get some evidence to the contrary.

HOG is the consumer, simple. The consumer is not going to be bailed out this year. So, because of that, we should not expect HOG to be. BUT, should it continue to drift into single digits, not buying it for an IRA to tuck away would be very difficult. They still are the best at making a one of a kind item and have brand loyalty like to other (until I see the Apple (AAPL) logo tattooed on folks, HOG has them beat). That being said, once credit issues are resolved, one can expect good results to follow immediately.

So then, what? Stuff in the ground, oil (USO), (DBO), (DXO), gold (GLD), (UGL) and silver (SLV). We need all three, they do not need credit for their value (one could argue tighter credit is a positive here, miners cutting back due to lack of credit decreases supply, bullish for prices), and are necessary.

Yes, as the economic recession has slowed demand for all, BUT, supply is also being taken off the market almost as fast  AND demand will resume well before the current production being taken off the market can catch up. That means a spike in prices.

For all three there is also the specter of corporate and government debt and possible worldwide defaults. Mish says that there is a crisis looming and that currencies will take the fall. Gregor McDonald says that when that happens, money will flow to currencies without borders or governments, gold, silver and (maybe) oil.

Cash is not such a bad thing to have right now. Think of it this way, if deflation is running 2%, and you can get 2% on a CD, that is a real return of 4% in purchasing power. That and locking it up for 6 months might stop us from doing something dumb with it…

Either way, I think one has to think that something dramatic is coming….one way or another..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GE, DXO, none
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Pershing Square Files 13D/A In Borders Group $$

The good news for shareholders is that Ackman is in this thing (Borders (BGP))for the long haul…

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From the filing:
As of January 16, 2009, as reflected in this Amendment No. 9, the Reporting Persons are reporting beneficial ownership on an aggregate basis of 25,297,880 shares of Common Stock (approximately 33.62% of the outstanding shares). This includes warrants covering 14,700,000 shares of Common Stock, which represents 9,550,000 warrants received on April 9, 2008 and 5,150,000 warrants received on October 1, 2008 (each, as previously disclosed). The Reporting Persons own cash settled, total return equity swaps covering 4,805,463 notional shares of Common Stock (as previously disclosed). The notional shares that underlie such swaps are not included in the totals set forth in the charts earlier in the Schedule 13D. The aggregate economic exposure of the Reporting Persons to shares of Common Stock, including the aggregate shares of Common Stock beneficially owned by the Reporting Persons plus the aggregate notional shares underlying such swaps, represents approximately 40% of the sum of the outstanding shares of Common Stock and the shares of Common Stock underlying such warrants.

Item 4. Purpose of Transaction

Item 4 is hereby supplemented, as follows:
On December 22, 2008, Pershing Square, certain of its affiliates and the Issuer entered into an agreement (the “First Amendment to the Senior Secured Credit Agreement”) to extend the deadline for repayment of the $42,500,000 senior secured term loan owed under the Credit Agreement by the Issuer to Pershing Square, from January 15, 2009 to February 16, 2009.

On December 22, 2008, Pershing Square and the Issuer entered into an agreement (the “Extension of Purchase Offer”) to extend Pershing Square’s backstop purchase offer on behalf of certain funds managed by Pershing Square, set forth in the Purchase Offer Letter, from January 15, 2009 to February 16, 2009. On January 16, 2009, Pershing Square and the Issuer further agreed to amend the Purchase Offer Letter (the “Amendment of Purchase Offer”), such that at the election of the Issuer and subject to certain terms and conditions, certain funds managed by Pershing Square will be obligated to purchase all, but not less than all, of the issued and outstanding capital stock of Paperchase Products Ltd. and its subsidiaries (together, “Paperchase”). In advance of the acquisition of Paperchase, the Issuer (or certain of its affiliates) will either acquire any issued and outstanding capital stock of Paperchase currently not owned by the Issuer (or certain of its affiliates), or cause any third party holders that own capital stock of Paperchase to become parties to the stock purchase agreement for the sale of Paperchase to certain funds managed by Pershing Square. Pursuant to the terms of the Purchase Offer Letter, as amended by the Amendment of Purchase Offer, funds managed by Pershing Square are no longer obligated to purchase the Issuer’s approximately 17% interest in Bookshop Acquisitions, Inc. The Purchase Offer Letter remains subject to its original terms and conditions, except as expressly amended or modified by the Amendment of Purchase Offer.

The foregoing summary of the First Amendment to the Senior Secured Credit Agreement, the Extension of Purchase Offer, the Amendment of Purchase Offer and the transactions contemplated thereby is not complete and is subject in its entirety to the First Amendment to the Senior Secured Credit Agreement, the Extension of Purchase Offer and the Amendment of Purchase Offer, which are filed as Exhibits 99.1, 99.2 and 99.3 hereto and are incorporated herein by reference.

The Reporting persons have been and continue to be in discussions with the Issuer regarding financing transactions, including the backstop purchase offer, set forth in the Purchase Offer Letter, as extended and amended pursuant to the Extension of Purchase Offer and the Amendment of Purchase Offer, and alternative commitments and transactions (collectively, “Financing Transactions”). Notwithstanding anything to the contrary in this Schedule 13D or otherwise, the Reporting Persons may cease these discussions at any time and can make no assurance that any Financing Transaction will be successfully negotiated and/or consummated.

FIRST AMENDMENT TO THE SENIOR SECURED CREDIT AGREEMENT

AMENDMENT OF PURCHASE OFFER

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP
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Pershing’s McGuire Named Borders Chairman $$

So, we now know what the delay was for in the Pershing / Borders financing agreement.

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Borders Group (BGP) today announced that Richard “Mick” McGuire, 32, has been appointed non-executive Chairman of the company’s Board of Directors, effective today. He replaces Larry Pollock, 61, who has been non-executive Chairman since July 2006 and has been a Director since August 1995. Pollock will remain on the Board as a Director.

McGuire joined the Board in January 2008 in connection with his role as a partner at Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P., which is Borders Group’s largest investor. At Pershing Square, McGuire served as a member of the investment team exploring investment opportunities in industries including retail, consumer products, business services and financial services. He is now departing Pershing Square to pursue entrepreneurial interests. Prior to Pershing Square, McGuire held positions at private equity funds J.H. Whitney & Co., and Stonington Partners, Inc. He holds a master’s degree in business administration (MBA) from Harvard Business School and a bachelor’s degree from Princeton University.

“Mick is extremely smart and capable,” said Pershing Square founder and Chief Executive Officer Bill Ackman. “As a major shareholder of Borders, I am delighted with Mick’s appointment to Chairman. I look forward to the company’s progress under Mick’s and CEO Ron Marshall’s stewardship.”

“In the short time that I have worked with Mick, I am impressed with his constructive input, sound judgment and overall support of the company,” said Borders Group Chief Executive Officer Ron Marshall. “I look forward to working more closely with Mick in the expanded role of Chairman and with Mike Archbold in his new role as Lead Director. On behalf of the entire Board and management team, I also want to thank Larry for his years of service as Chairman and am pleased that he’ll remain with the Board as a Director.”

As noted, Michael G. Archbold has been named Lead Director. Archbold, 48, joined the Board in December 2007. He is Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer of The Vitamin Shoppe, a position he has held since 2007. Previously, Archbold served as Executive Vice President, Chief Financial and Administrative Officer of Saks Fifth Avenue. Prior to Saks, Archbold was Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of AutoZone and earlier served as Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of the Booksellers Division of Barnes & Noble, Inc.
Pollock, who as noted remains on the Board, is Managing Partner of investment firm Lucky Stars Partners LLC. Previously, he was President, and later Chief Executive Officer, of Cole National Corporation, which operates retail vision and gift stores and was sold to Luxottica Group SpA in 2004. Prior to Cole National, Pollock served as President and Chief Executive Officer of HomePlace, Inc., and earlier was President, Chief Operating Officer and a Director of jewelry retailer Zale Corporation.

It’s Ackman’s ball now. Largest shareholder, Chairman and Chief Financer all in one (two actually but one sounds better).

It will be real interesting to watch..


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP
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Reader Emails Answered: Oil, Financials, Recession, Dollar etc..

Been getting a slew of emails the last months and rather than say the same things over and over, thought I would address them in a post since the themes are all similar..

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1- Financials:
Will not be touching them and are currently waiting for Wells Fargo (WFC) to rally a bit to sell out of it. Why? I no longer know the rules of investing in them. TARP and its requirements change almost daily. Going forward, the term (interest) the Gov’t demands and the shareholder dilution that accompanies them will become more onerous. That is bad news. Also, the second body blow from housing is due this year and next. That means more suffering for financials and shareholders.

Now, this does not mean I will never invest in them again, just that I think in 2010 we will still be able to buy them at these levels or lower. Is there value in financials? I just cannot quantify it as long as we have shifting rules from the Gov’t.

2- The Market
Up to 9000, then back to 8000 all year. The market will bounce like a ball but never really go anywhere. I think the risk is to the downside as the recession worsens. Unemployment ought to pass 10%, GDP will be negative for the year and credit is still drying up. So, given those, how do we go to 10,000?

That being said, it is a traders market. If you sell options you can make some money here. If you trade the rang you can also. If you are not a trader, don’t try to be one. Be who you are

3- Oil
Have written a lot about it recently. Why? Demand has fallen true, but the unreported story is production has fallen off a cliff also. Oil is not like a faucet. It cannot just be turned back on. A drilling project shuttered because of low prices today cannot just be flipped back on when prices recover. There is a tremendous lag. As crazy as prices were at $147, they are equally as crazy at $47. US production continues to fall, Mexico’s has plummeted and OPEC is more in power than ever. That only serve to heighten the Geo-Political risk of oil. Translation? One wacko can cause a global oil price spike.

I see the most value here now, or at least a market unfettered by arbitrary Gov’t intervention. Yes, I know that most foreign oil companies are govt’t owned, what I am saying is that if you buy oil today, your ownership cannot be diluted by the gov’t like it can and is in equities today.

4- The dollar and inflation….
Has anyone ever seen a scenario when massive supply of an item has not caused a devaluation of it? How can the current US Gov’t’s “running the dollar printing presses full tilt” like they are now NOT lead to a devaluation of the dollar? Here is the problem. The gov’t WANTS inflation to return. It will increase home prices, increase to prices manufacturers get for their goods, increase equity values etc. The problem is, gov’t always overdoes it. That means that they will pump too much into the system and inflation will get away from them.

That genie, once out of the bottle is only pot back in by inflicting more pain on the economy. It then becomes a vicious circle…

5- What to buy?
Right now? I am buying nothing but oil. Why? As much as we have sen the rules of the game change in the past year, still more is due. TARP requirements are, the tax code is, a stimulus is coming (we do not know the composition of it) and a Democratic Congress has plenty on its agenda. What looks good today may not tomorrow. Does this mean you should not buy anything? No. There of course will be plenty of equities that do wonderful in the next year. I just think there will be plenty more that do not.

Management now matters more than ever. Keep it in mind when buying.

Am I selling? Only the financials (sold most in the fall). I still like what I hold, Dow Chemical (DOW), AutoNation (AN), ADM (ADM), Borders (BGP), Oil (DXO), (DBO), Phillip Morris International (PM), Sears Holdings (SHLD) and GE (GE). I do have misgiving about Immelt at GE but am willing to wait as I think they will be a big beneficiary of infrastructure stimulus.

All dominate their businesses (except Borders and Sears, they are plays on the majority shareholders Ackman and Lampert) and are picking up market share. Dow will lead us out of recession as whatever needs to be made, they make the stuff that makes it and it yields 10%.

Wait and see….

This is the environment that one can make purchases that make one look like a genius for decades, it just takes a keen eye….


Disclosure (“none” means no position):
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Monday, Bloody Monday at Borders $$

Ron Marchall has the experience, that cannot be argued. What I have not found yet are the ties to Bill Ackman and Pershing. This must be the reason for the delay in the Pershing financing agreement.

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Borders Group (BGP) today announced several management changes–including the appointment of a new Chief Executive Officer–to more aggressively drive a turnaround of the company within today’s challenging economy. Effective today, Ron Marshall, who most recently was Principal of Wildridge Capital Management, a private equity firm he founded approximately three years ago, has been appointed President and Chief Executive Officer and will serve as a Director. Marshall, 54, replaces George Jones who served in that same capacity since July 2006.

Marshall brings more than three decades of financial and retail experience to Borders Group. Prior to founding Wildridge Capital, he was Chief Executive Officer for eight years with Nash Finch Company, a $5 billion food distribution and retail organization, where Marshall was responsible for a turnaround that included the quadrupling of earnings over a six-year period as well as a 40% improvement in EBITDA over the same period. Marshall earlier helped drive a turnaround of $4 billion supermarket retailer Pathmark Stores, Inc., where he served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer from 1994 to 1998. Preceding that, Marshall served in senior management positions in a variety of retail companies including Dart Group Corporation’s Crown Books division and Barnes & Noble college bookstores.

“Progress has been made by Borders Group over recent quarters within the challenging economy to reduce debt, improve cash flow, cut expenses, enhance inventory productivity and improve margins, but it is imperative that the company more aggressively attack these initiatives to address its long-term future,” said Borders Group Board of Directors Chairman Larry Pollock. “We are confident that Ron Marshall, with his strong financial and turnaround expertise, vast retail experience and specific bookstore background, is the right choice to lead a new management team and boldly take these efforts to the next level.”

“Borders is a powerful brand with millions of loyal customers who love to shop in the stores,” said Marshall. “These are tremendous assets that can be built upon once the balance sheet is strengthened and the company is on more solid financial footing. I’ve led turnarounds at other retail organizations and look forward to leading a new management team at Borders to drive profitability and help ensure lasting success for this great name in retail.”
In accordance with New York Stock Exchange rules, Borders Group reported that it will issue to Marshall by Feb. 1, 2009 an employee inducement award consisting of options to purchase 1.8 million shares of the company’s common stock. The options vest in installments over the three-year period following Marshall’s start date. Marshall will also be issued 200,000 options at the same time with similar terms as those of the employee inducement award in accordance with the existing company shareholder-approved long-term incentive program. A full description of terms will be contained within a Form 8-K disclosure the company intends to file this week.
Other Management Changes

In addition to Marshall’s appointment as Chief Executive Officer, other management changes were announced. Mark Bierley has been named Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Finance. He replaces Ed Wilhelm, who joined Borders Group in 1994 and held the Chief Financial Officer position for the past eight years. Wilhelm will stay on with the company for a transition period. Bierley has more than 20 years of financial and accounting experience and has been with Borders Group since 1996. He has progressed through a variety of management positions within the company, including inventory and financial posts, and most recently served as Senior Vice President, Finance.

Anne Kubek has been appointed Executive Vice President, Merchandising and Marketing. In that position, she replaces Rob Gruen, who is leaving Borders Group after approximately two years. Kubek has been with the company since 1990, beginning her career as an assistant manager of the Borders store in Rockville, Maryland, and progressing through a series of management positions within the store organization. She came to the corporate office in 1996 and over the years has served as Vice President, Field Human Resources; Vice President, Book Merchandising; Vice President, Borders Store Operations and most recently as Senior Vice President, Borders Stores, a post she has held since 2005.

Additionally, Dan Smith has been named to the new position of Chief Administrative Officer. Smith, who has been with Borders Group since 1995 in a variety of leadership roles, including his most recent position as Executive Vice President, Human Resources, retains his current responsibilities, but also takes on leadership of the company’s information technology group, which is headed by Chief Information Officer Susan Harwood, who remains with the company.
“The Board is pleased to bring forth the considerable talents of individuals with strong track records, well-rounded experience and tremendous industry knowledge within Borders Group to contribute in even more significant ways to the company under the leadership of Ron Marshall,” Pollock added. “This is a great team with outstanding skills. We are confident that they will keep the company moving on the right path toward what can ultimately be a strong long-term future.”

Sales Results-Holiday 2008

Borders Group also released its sales results for the nine-week holiday period ended Jan. 3, 2009. Total consolidated sales were $868.8 million, an 11.7% decline compared to the same period last year. Within the Borders superstore segment, total sales for the holiday period were $652.6 million, which is a 13.6% decrease compared to 2007. Comparable store sales at Borders superstores declined by 14.4% compared to the same period a year ago. On a same-store sales basis, the book category at Borders declined by 11.0% for the period. Borders.com sales for the nine-week holiday period were $20.3 million. Overall, holiday sales started slow and improved during the latter part of the season.

Within the Waldenbooks Specialty Retail segment, total sales for the holiday period were $161.7 million, a 16.4% decrease compared to the same period one year ago. Comparable store sales for Waldenbooks declined by 8.0% compared to holiday 2007.

Total International segment sales were $34.3 million for the period, a 1.4% decrease compared to the same period a year ago. Comparable store sales at Paperchase stores in the U.K. decreased by 6.5% for the holiday period year over year.

“While our recent holiday sales results reflected the difficult retail environment and additional challenges within specific categories of our business, the company’s sales performance and cash generation were within the range of our internal financial plans for the holiday period,” said Borders Group Chief Financial Officer Mark Bierley. “We continue to aggressively implement the range of initiatives that we launched in mid-2008, which have allowed us to reduce expenses and improve working capital to drive improved cash flow and debt reduction.”

Is this a desperation move? Don’t think so. I think it is more of a “Jones took us as far as he could” and now someone else is needed to complete the transition. George Jones did a good job digging the company out of the hole his predecessor left him.

Marshall brings fresh eyes to the situation and a background from PE that inevitably will bring some creative solutions that the company needs to navigate the current credit markets.

Not selling, holding pat…


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP
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2009: Fear and Loathing $$

2009 is shaping up to make 2008 look like the good ‘ole days…

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Why?

Let’s look at some issues…

STIMULUS: Won’t it make a difference?
No. government stimulus is great in that is provides a nice immediate effect. It has a tremendous long term cost though. For the gov’t to hire it must either take from others (more taxes) or just print money itself. Neither is a good option long term. It gives us all a warm fuzzy in thinking that Barack is taking care of all of us but gov’t jobs are never the answer. It is a credit card mentality from the gov’t. It only works until the bill comes due….stimulating the private sector to create jobs is a far better option. It take a bit longer to work, but the results, far from costing money provide it for all…

Let’s reverse the whole scenario. What out there points to a recovery? A million jobs paving roads? Really? If the employment rate is expected to be 10% next year, then any jobs created by the gov’t will be more than offset by losses in the private sector.

To use the credit card mentality again, the govt’t will use its credit card to create demand (jobs) while at the same time losing income (from other job losses). Can you imagine how this scenario ends well? Me either..

HOUSING: A rebound?
Hell no!! Housing still has tremendous downside. Why? Housing inventory is still at 12 months and will only grow. The option arm nightmare is just beginning. These people cannot be helped by lower interest rates as they are not paying the minimum interest payment now on the loans. This is going to lead to another tidal wave of homes coming onto the market in the next year or two. Unlike the subprime defaults, these defaults will hit the $500k and over homes that people bought with 5% or less down. The already squeezed middle class is going to get whacked again…

A scenario in which we see 14 or 15 months of inventory out there is not all that out of the realm of probability

Much has been said about the banks not lending the TARP money. They aren’t because they know they have hundred of billions of dollars of losses coming up in mortgage products from these loans coming up. They’ll need the cash.

20% down..
The last two years of the housing boom were fueled by new mortgage products that allowed buyers to put in most cases less than 10% down for a home. These loans are gone. We are back to the 20% down rule. Were is it coming from? Investments? With the Dow (.DJI) and S&P (.INX) off 40% this year the stock market will not be a source of funds. Jobs? Unemployment will most likely hit 10% next year so it will not be from jobs or singing bonuses and people worried about losing a job are not going to tap savings for a new home. In short there is not a source of funds for a down-payment.

Even if we have willing buyers, were are they going to get the money?

After the last housing bust in the early 1990’s it took 9 years for home prices to return to pre-bust levels. The boom then was nothing like the current one so to expect prices to return and make millions of underwater home owners profitable when they sell anytime before 2017 is delusional.

INFLATION: Up ,Up and Away
What happens when the supply of something grows unrestrained? It value falls. Thus is the dollar. As it s value falls, more of them are required to purchase items. Inflations ensues. How do we stop inflation? Raise interest rates to increase demand for dollars, oops, there goes the housing fix currently being tried…

THE CONSUMER:
Retrenching……If you have watched the news in the past month shopper after shopper is saying they are cutting back on spending and not using credit. That is the right decision for them, but bad for growth today. The consumer is shell shocked and will not dip their toes in the water again until they are 100% sure it is safe. That, will be a while. A poor economic climate in 2009 will only worsen the mood and the fear they feel, causing further retrenchment.

Part of this problem is the inevitable mood swing surrounding a new administration. This does have a severe downside though. “Hope” was Obama’s message and the “it is a new day” mantra has been restated over and over by followers. Here is the problem, even if Obama does everything right, 2009 will still be a lousy year. That optimism will turn to a vicious pessimism as consumers will then resort to a “if he can’t help us no one can” mentality.

The consumer will stash money away, reduce debt and live less frivolously. Again, all good things long term but very bad short term for business.

What to buy?
Personally if you are going into stocks, buy things people have to have with a nice dividend. Discretionary names ought to suffer as a whole with some individual spectacular successes.

Personally I am looking at oil (DBO), (DXO), shorting the dollar (UDN) and gold (GLD).

Not thinking about selling current holding as ones like Dow Chemical (DOW), GE (GE), Phillip Morris International (PM) all will pay me 9%, 7% and 6% in dividends this year (long term holdings so lower tax rate than regular income). Those that don’t are smaller portions of holdings and success there ought to be met with very nice upside (hopefully).

AutoNation (AN)is capturing market share by the boat load as competitors close. It will emerge as the clear dominant player in all its market. That, and I am still convinced something is going to happen with it, Sears Holdings (SHLD) and AutoZone (AZO).

Borders (BGP) is feast or famine. I think it will be fine but it will take time…CEO George Jones is doing everything right and Ackman will buy it before he let’s it fold.

On the fence for a sell is Wells Fargo (WFC). It is a tough one because there are only really four big banks left (JP Morgan (JPM, Bank of America (BAC), Wells and Citigroup (C) so business will be there. But, the level of business going forward just will not be there as housing suffers for years. I have been selling covered calls on it for three months now and have lowered my cost basis on it 10%. After January expiration, assuming a market rally going into inauguration, I may just take that chance to get out before the 2009 slide begins. If I am called out, my total return in it for the three months will be 12% (dividend included). I’ll take it.


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Borders Extends Deadline for Pershing Deals $$

Another month to wait…..

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Borders Group, Inc. (NYSE: BGP) today announced an agreement with Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. on behalf of its affiliates, to extend the expiration date of the previously announced Borders option to “put” its U.K.-based Paperchase gifts and stationery business to Pershing Square for $65 million, subject to certain conditions. The “put” was due to expire Jan. 15, 2009, but has now been extended until Feb. 16, 2009. At the same time, the deadline for repayment of the $42.5 million senior secured term loan, which was originally payable to Pershing Square by Borders on Jan. 15, 2009, has also been extended to Feb. 16, 2009. Other terms of the “put” option and the term loan remain unchanged except that the approximately $1 million loan repayment premium that Borders is required to pay Pershing upon repayment of the $42.5 million loan remains due no later than Jan. 15, 2009.

What to think? I do not see it as bad news. Perhaps Borders has a potential buyer for Paperchase? The net of the deal is $22 million to Borders so this isn’t a delay because they can’t pay type of thing. One has to assume the delay is because something better may be on the table….


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Borders To Try Alternate Model


This does make sense…

Wall St. Newsletters

The WSJ Reports

Borders Group Inc. has agreed to accept books from HarperStudio on a nonreturnable basis, departing from a decades-old publishing tradition.

Under the terms of the deal, the nation’s second-largest bookstore chain by revenue will get a deeper discount on initial orders of books published by the new imprint of News Corp.’s HarperCollins Publishers — 58% to 63% off the cover price, instead of the usual 48%. In exchange, Borders won’t return any unsold books to HarperStudio, instead probably discounting them in the store. (News Corp. owns The Wall Street Journal.)

“The idea of taking inventory and then shipping it back isn’t a good idea for anybody. We’re open to all publishers to discuss alternatives to the traditional return model,” said Robert Gruen, executive vice president of merchandising and marketing at Borders, of Ann Arbor, Mich.

Under standard industry practice dating to the 1930s, retailers can send back whatever new titles don’t sell for full credit, with publishers paying for shipping. This has created a mass of titles that are trucked from one warehouse to another until they eventually are sent back to the bookstore chains, where they are sold for a significant discount to the list price.

People in the industry estimate that between 30% and 40% of all consumer adult titles are eventually returned to their publishers.

“Returns have never made sense in our business, and with the recent economic downturn, publishers and booksellers are more open than before to experimenting with models that might decrease waste and increase profit,” said Robert Miller, president and publisher of HarperStudio. When he started the imprint earlier this year, Mr. Miller said he intended to shake up traditional book-publishing economics.

Pro’s are that the new arrangement instantly increases margins or, should Borders elect not to go that route, they are now able to become more competitive on prices to the consumer without pressuring current ones. The key to making it work is inventory. It now become more important than ever to maintain proper levels to maximize sales of new titles at higher prices.

Borders this year has shown that it is able to do that and having control of the website from Amazon (AMZN) does give them a far more profitable clearing house for unsold titles.

This is a very good move, what needs to happen next is clarity on the “alternative financing arrangement with Bill Ackman and Pershing.


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Tuesday’s Links

Borders, Geo-politics, NetFlix, The dollar,

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Top Retailing site

– Job may not be biggest threat

Cheap entertainment

– Here comes the fall


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Why Did Borders Stock Fall? "Alternative Financing Transaction"

Three little words have cast doubt on the retailer that otherwise is doing everything it said it would.

Wall St. Newsletters

In reviewing the last earnings call Borders (BGP) has made significant progress this year on all stated goals..

* Debt down over 30%
* Cash flow from negative $100m to plus $9 million
* Cost cuts surpassed the $120 million goal to $140 million now
* The new concept stores have exceed expectations
* Borders.com has over 30 million Rewards Members and adds over 120k a week.

Here is the problem:
“Regarding Paperchase we retained the right to exercise the put option to sell Paperchase to Pershing Square Capital Management for $65 million and we are also in discussions with Pershing Square regarding an alternative financing transaction.

Of course no assurance can be given as to whether an alternative financing transaction will be entered into or contemplated.”

Later, in response to a question, CEO Jones says:
Matthew Fassler – Goldman Sachs:
“Related to the other deal you’re looking at with Pershing you talked about retaining the put on Paperchase but you said you’re looking at an alternative strategic transaction to the extent and if you’re free to shed any light on what kind of transaction that might be we’d be interested.”

Edward Wilhelm
“We do have, we have retained the rights to the put, and the disclosure in the release was an alternative financing transaction. And we can’t comment any further then what was in the release.”

Matthew Fassler – Goldman Sachs
“Would that be presumably a more comprehensive transaction that goes beyond Paperchase?”

Edward Wilhelm
“We really can’t comment any further.”

George Jones
“The key thing to note though is we still have the right to the put so anything we do is obviously going to be favorable for the company.”

The lack of any further clarity leaves people wondering. Now, of course folks think the deal will be favorable to the company. But, does it mean it will stop it from Chapter 11 or does it mean it will provide additional liquidity to increase concept store openings? Does it mean credit markets are closed to the retailer or does it mean thy can just get a better deal from Pershing? Does it mean Ackman may just buy the rest of the company for the $25 million it will cost him at these prices and just spin it out in a few years and they want to avoid that?

You could go one for another 20 scenario’s and until Borders or Ackman come out and settle folks down, the stock will languish. Do I think the company is in trouble? No. But, I have no ammunition to make the argument when they give us nothing.

I know some folks who have spoken the Wilhelm as essentially said the same things and the reply was that they “understood but could not announce specifics now”. We do not need specifics…just a direction..


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP
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Don’t Hold Current Managment Responsible For The Sins of The Prior One

First, I have respect for Jeff Matthews and link to his stuff often, but this time, he misses…

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Matthews writes:

The poster child of poor capital management might just be Borders Group.

Borders, which runs one of our favorite book stores in the country (Union Square in San Francisco) and goes by the ticker BGP, is the now-beleaguered bookseller spun out of K-mart long ago in happier times.

Borders is also one of those companies that so desperately wanted to make Wall Street’s Finest happy—not to mention its own shareholders—that it spent all its cash, and more, to buy back stock.

“Returning value to shareholders,” it was called back in February 2005, when Borders management proudly announced a $250 million share repurchase plan, and the stock price was $25.

Wall Street’s Finest were, of course, delighted, and the company received the kind of “attaboys” that caused a long list of management teams to pursue the greatest value-destroying fad in American business history. In this case, it crippled a once wonderful chain of bookstores:

“The stock’s cheap, in our opinion, and the company seems to agree,” [hedge fund manager Bill] Ackman said last week at the Value Investing Congress in New York. Borders…has “one of the most aggressive share-repurchase programs I’ve ever seen.”

—Bloomberg LP, November 2006

In the end, of course, that repurchase program was far too aggressive.

Five years ago Borders had a $1.9 billion market value and more cash than debt on its books. Today, Borders has a $50 million market value (yes, that’s right, $50 million) and more debt than cash. Like, $525 million in debt against $38 million in cash.

Oh, and the stock’s current price? $1.00 a share.

“Returning value to shareholders?” No. “Mortgaging the future,” at best. “Destroying the company,” at worst.

What Matthew fails to acknowledge is that current CEO George Jones has only been a the company since July 2006. Jones’ first act as CEO was to take back control of the Borders.com site from Amazon (AMZN). The site now has nearly 30 million rewards members. Second he outlined the new concept stores Borders is building that are the companies most profitable. He then said he was going to lower the chains inventory levels and reduce its huge debt load and both are down 30% and 40% respectively.

Now, we all know retail turnarounds take time and that time is painfully exacerbated in a recession and credit crunch like we are seeing. But we need to be clear that Jones has the company cash flow positive, has reduced debt and his vision for the new concept stores is a success.

Here is a podcast Jones did in July 2007 after his plan was announced.

A recent Credit Suisse research report backs this by saying:

The improvement we have seen in just the last few months is very encouraging, and perhaps in a better macro environment, could make an interesting story. However, in an environment where the comparable-store-sales declines are worsening, its gap with its No. 1 competitor is widening, in a retail segment on the decline and shifting to other channels, and with technology threatening to change the business even further, we see limited upside from current operating levels and remain cautious on the stock.

Overall, we believe Borders management deserves credit for the progress it has made. In the midst of a challenging macro environment, the company has managed to cut costs without destroying the bottom line, has sold off business lines to focus on the U.S., and has positioned the company to survive.

Results for the third quarter, while worse than expected, showed lower expenses as promised, improved gross margins absent the fixed-cost deleverage from lower sales, better management of promotions, a significant reduction in debt, and much improved cash flow. The company also upped its cost savings target by $20 million to $140 million.

If we look further, I think someone would be very hard pressed to find a retailer who’s share sit today higher than they did in mid 2006 when Jones took over. Not Target (TGT), Macy’s (M), JC Penny (JCP), Home Depot (HD), Lowes (LOW), Sears Holdings (SHLD), Barnes & Noble (BKS) or scores of others sit today higher than they did them.

Were the actions of previous management ill planned? Yes. But let’s be clear that current management is doing the right things to fix those mistakes..


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP, WMT, SHLD, none
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Borders and Pershing…..A Very Interesting Idea

Still have not listened to the earnings call yet but will get to it. Had to go pick up the 34lb. turkey for tomorrow. Anyway, had this great idea emailed to me today from JB..

Wall St. Newsletters

“What would happen if Pershing Square guaranteed all of Borders (BGP) debt (maybe for a small fee). The stock would skyrocket wouldn’t it? The reason the stock has been hammered in addition to the slowing consumer/macro environment is b/c of the heavy debt load. Eliminating a major concern should get the equity moving significantly. Keep in mind that all of BGP’s debt is a credit facility with no restrictive covenants until they are 90% borrowed…Considering they have $518mm of an available $1,125mm outstanding it seems awfully flexible in this environment.

Why would Pershing square do this? Well I doubt that they believe that BGP will default on this debt and they would benefit from both a small fee on the guarantee as well as a significant appreciation in their equity holdings. It’s not as if BGP management will stop managing the business prudently and they likely will continue to pull as much costs out of the business as possible and pay down debt on a continuing basis.”

I can’t poke a hole in this…anyone have any comments?


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Sears…A Reader Submission.

Reader Justin submits: Why Sears (SHLD) is NOT going bankrupt?

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In this volatile market, anyone can say anything to put downward pressure on a stock. In many cases deserved, in some cases absurd, and in the case of Sears a little of both.

Let’s start with the deserved part. Obviously, retail is doing terrible this year as an investment. However, the woes at Sears go beyond the macro environment. They have made bad decisions in some cases, suffered from management turnover, and communicated very little beyond what’s required by a public company. On top of that, they recently lost a well-respected, activist shareholder, Bill Ackman. Bill has taken an absolute beating on his investments in Sears, Target, and Borders, so he may have had about all the fun he can handle in retail. In short, it hasn’t been all that pretty, but the shares reflect much worse.

The absurd is the idea that Sears has some kind of solvency risk as some have floated. Why is this absurd? Here’s my case:

1. Last quarter Sears generated FCF (free cash flow) of over $400 million. Target, a “good” retailer actually had no FCF last quarter, they burned over $900million. In fact, Target hasn’t generated FCF in the last 3 quarters. Over the same time frame Sears generated a staggering $1.5 BILLION in FCF. So yes Sears is making money hand over fist in this environment even with mediocre execution.

2. Eddie Lampert’s investment fund ESL owns over 50% of Sears. And Sears makes up over ½ his fund. And his fund is still making investments in other equities. Now if you are thinking that ½ your fund may evaporate into insolvency or you are worried about investor redemptions then you preserve cash if not generate cash by selling positions. What you don’t do is make more investments, which is what he’s doing.

3. Sears announced the purchase of additional shares of Sears Canada in November. Why spend your cash on buybacks and now additional shares in Sears Canada if you are worried about your cash position?

4. I’ve been to several Sears and Kmarts in recent weeks and they are all hiring.

In conclusion, Sears is hiring people, buying shares in, generating FCF, and ESL continues to make investments. None of these indicate to me that there’s any solvency concern by the controlling shareholder.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Justin is long SHLD
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