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the week’s top stories at Value Investing News

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Buffett Talks About Goldman Deal (video)

Berkshire’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett talks about Goldman Sachs (GS), Paulson and the $700B.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GS, none
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S&P Puts AutoNation on "Credit Watch"

Let’s look at this because it really is……well…..odd at best/

First the details:
Standard & Poor’s put AutoNation (AN) on credit watch, citing the U.S. economy and falling auto sales. AutoNation ranks No. 1 on the Automotive News list of top 125 U.S. dealership groups selling over 325,000 new vehicles last year.

Currently AutoNation has a BBB- investment grade from S&P, one step above a junk. The credit watch status, issued Friday by New York analyst Nancy Messer, reflects “conditions that could pressure already weak credit measures well into 2009” and “increased uncertainty” about the length of the auto industry’s downturn and U.S. economic woes.

AutoNation’s corporate credit rating dropped to BBB- in April 2006. S&P changed the company’s outlook last November , from “stable” to “negative,” which indicates a one in three chance S&P will lower the credit rating in the future and the decision to put the company on “credit watch” indicates a 50-50 chance S&P will decrease the credit rating after credit rating officials meet with AutoNation executives in the next 90 days to discuss financial plans.

As of June 30, AutoNation had total balance sheet debt of $1.5 billion, not including floorplan debt, the memo said. In the second quarter of 2008, AutoNation reported the number of new vehicles sold in individual dealerships dropped 12.8 percent from the same quarter in 2007, to 73,545 units.

Now, let’s look sat it. AutoNation has, by far, the industry’s nest numbers and is solidly profitable. Sure profits has deteriorated (they would be expected to) but this company is by no means at risk of losing money.

This is in the face large dealerships across the country closing their doors, which, will increase AutoNations markets share. In the face of this they are opening Mercedes dealerships in Las Vegas, Orlando and a BMW dealership in_______.

Why wasn’t this action done in May? In May CEO Mike Jackson said the auto industry had been “turned upside down” by both high gas and contracting credit conditions, yet S&P was silent.

Now, for the first time in over a year we have some clarity out there that credit conditions may begin to relax as a result of the Treasury’s plan.

What is the worst happens? What if the S&P does take action and downgrade AutoNation to junk? Does it effect any debt covenants that could cause a liquidity issue? No. None of AutoNation’s debt covenants are tied to their debt rating.

Wouldn’t it have made more sense for S&P to have taken this action in May, and now that their is a bit of clarity in credit conditions (In May there was absolutely none) upgrade them from “negative” to “stable”? It seems that S$P is about 6 months behind the curve here. Although, if you have been alive the last year, this ought not be a surprise to anyone.

The bottom line here is the credit agencies are scrambling. They are publicly taking a fair amount of the blame for the current situation were are in and are now going into full “CYA” mode. Rather than looking at company’s individually, they are just painting entire industries with the same brush. This action follows similar ones at Ford(F) and GM(GM) and an expected one at Toyota (TM). This is a bit like saying Wells Fargo (WFC) and Washington Mutual (WM) are in the same boat. They clearly aren’t. If on looks at Berkshire (BRK.a) Buffett investment #2 CarMax’s (KMX) recent results, AutoNation’s are still superior.

Aren’t we talking about “risk of default” with the ratings anyway? How can they say a company like AutoNation is at a higher risk of default now? The company is very profitable and very cash flow positive. It is without question the cream of the crop in its industry. Think about it this way. If the #1 retailer is at risk of being “junk” then every automaker and every other retailer ought to already be. You can’t have #1 rated below those who trail it.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN, none
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The Week’s Top Stories at VIN

Here are the top stories for the week at Value investing News

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Walter Schloss Talks Value

The guy Berkshire’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett admires talks about how e chooses companies.


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Charlie Rose & Roger Lowenstein on Buffett , 1995 (video)

Lowenstein wrote perhaps the best book on Berkshire’s (BRK.A) Buffett in my opinion. In this 1994 interview he discusses it.

Here is Lowenstein’s book:

Here is the interview. The Buffett section is 32 min. into it.


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The Week’s Best at VIN

Here are the week’s top at Value Investing News

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Berkshire’s Buffett with Charlie Rose (video)

It is an hour long video from May, 2007 of Berkshire’s (BRK.a) Chairman. Well worth the time



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More Buffett Video Talking Fannie/Freddie

When asked what he would do with the stocks of Fannie (FNM) or Freddie (FRE), Buffet said that if he had a three year time frame he would short it. “But shorting a $1 stock is like jumping off a pancake” Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A) Chairman joked.

Part 1:

Part 2:


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Warren Buffett Comments on Fannie /Freddie Action

“I wouldn’t change a single thing in the plan” says Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett.


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Monday’s Links

Mobile, Gumshoe, Lehman, Chrome

– Now this is research

– More scams uncovered

– I think they may just go under

– Until they get ad-ons, I can’t really use it very well

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Wal-Mart’s "Guidance" Changes Reaction to Results

This is a classic. So just last month when Wal-Mart came in at 3% comps and people were inexplicably disappointed and then guided for 1% to 2% for August, I said “Anyone want to bet Wal-Mart is lowering projections to avoid the current scenario next month? Now Wall St. will lower “estimates”, Wal-Mart will beat them and everyone will be happy…..strange stuff.” Guess what happened today?

Wal-Mart (WMT) said Thursday sales of groceries and back-to-school products helped its August same-store sales rise 3 percent, beating expectations.

Sales in stores open at least one year, a measure known as same-store sales, rose 2.8 percent at Wal-Mart Stores and 4.2 percent at Sam’s Club for the four weeks ended Aug. 29. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters predicted a 1.6 percent rise.

Including fuel, the world’s largest retailer’s total same-store sales rose 3.5 percent. Total company sales rose 9 percent to $30.67 billion in the four-week period.

“The underlying business performance for Walmart U.S. continued to show strength and the improved relative performance has resulted in market share gains,” said Eduardo Castro-Wright, Walmart U.S. president and chief executive, in a statement.

Isn’t this just great? Same number but because they issue different guidance, people were upset before and are thrilled today. Maybe Sears’ (SHLD) Eddie Lampert and Berkshire’s (BRK.a) Warren Buffett are onto something by not issuing guidance.

It also goes to show the most of Wall St. simply bases their expectations on those set by the company.

Oh yea…the company said it expects September same-store sales to rise 2 percent to 3 percent. Now if we come in a 3% again, we’ll “meet the high end of expectations” and that will be good news. 4% and people will be dancing.

Such nonsense…


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WMT, SHLD, none
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Oil and Dow Chemical’s Q3:: Updated

Now that august is in the books, let’s look at where we are and update an earlier post.

Prior Post


In the call
the following exchange was had:
Jeffrey Zekauskas – JPMorgan
“Good morning. On average shouldn’t your raw material costs be down sequentially in the third quarter? Natural gas has gone from — I don’t know — $12 to $9 and oil has come from $135 to $125?”

Geoffery E. Merszei – Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Member of the Board of Directors
“Yeah Jeff, this is Geoffrey here. Just to take oil, Brent crude average price as of this morning, let’s say, $124, $125. At today’s level it is still higher than our average cost during the first quarter. The average cost in the first quarter was around $122. I’m using crude as a reference point. And we are already towards the end of the first month of one-third of the quarter. So if you use an average rate for the third quarter of let’s say around $125, $126 then you are talking about over $0.5 billion additional cost for the company to absorb.”

It would look like that based on current demand for its products every $3 plus or minus in its cost of oil results in about a $500 million cost increase or decrease.

Dow’s Q2 average was $122 and change and oil now sits at $117. What is also of interest is the price increases announced earlier this summer were only about 40% implemented during Q2. By the time Q3 is finished, they ought to be fully implemented which means revenues ought to post another record quarter assuming no dramatic demand destruction (unlikely).

What does it all mean? Should oil prices remain lower than $122 for the quarter and with the price increases now fully implemented, the 66 cents a share earnings that analysts anticipate are beginning to look as though it is far too low.

Where are we at? July crude averaged $134 and August finished at $115. September has started off at $108.

We are essentially flat vs Q2 for the cost of oil (USO) for Dow (DOW) $122 vs $124. The difference will be the price increases that will be fully implemented in this quarter (they were only 1/3 implemented during Q2). Should prices remain where they are for the month ($108), Dow will finish the quarter at about $119 a barrel of cost, adding $500 million to the bottom line for shareholders, price increases not withstanding.

Of course one should also assume Dow may be entering into more contracts at lower prices now and that this will reduce the average purchase below just a simple daily average reading in the example above.

This is a fun exercise but when you look at it, as the year goes by it becomes far less necessary. Dow has essentially traded 50% interest in its oil dependent commodity business to Kuwait for Rohm and Hass (ROH) in its entirety and picked up Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett as an investor to boot. Not a bad deal when you look at it that way.

It is still only 2/3 of the way through the quarter but I am thinking there are going to be a whole lot of shareholders very happy with the earnings surprise Dow turns in after Q3 is over…


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Dow, none
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Value Investor’s Rejoice: "It is Dead"

A recent article said, “More than a few cynics have proclaimed value investing to be dead. Its plight hasn’t been this dire since the height of the technology bubble.” That bubble also lead to a near decade of outsized return for value investors.

Remember that tech bubble? It was the one before the recent housing bubble? Remember? Berkshire’s (BRK.a) Warren Buffett was mocked and called “out of touch”?

Yahoo (YHOO) traded at 144 times earnings? There were scores of $100 stocks that actually had NO earnings. Good times…..until it all came crashing down.

What survived? Yup, “Out of touch” Warren’s stock went on to almost triple over the next 7 years (“b” share climbed from $1790 to $4900 a share).

Meanwhile, shares of Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo, Dell (DELL) fell and have never regained anything near their prior levels. There are countless other ones but most of those businesses no longer exist.

Value investing seems to be at its most valuable right when people proclaim its “death”. It is ironic because that is often when we start getting interested in the stock of a company, when the masses hate it.

In Seth Klarman’s “Margin of Safety“, he says “Security prices sometimes fluctuate, not based on any apparent changes in reality, but on changes in investor perception.”

He concludes his first chapter with this:

“The financial markets offer many temptations to vulnerable investors. It is easy to do the wrong thing, to speculate rather than invest. Emotion lies dangerously close to the surface for most investors and can be particularly intense when market prices move dramatically in either direction. It is crucial that investors understand the difference between speculating and investing and learn to take advantage of the opportunities presented
by Mr. Market.”

When people begin to speculate about the demise of histories most successful investing strategy, emotions are running the days an great opportunities will arise.


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Wells Fargo Doesn’t Want Other’s Junk…Surprised?

Not sure why this is a surprise.

Wells Fargo (WFC) CEO John Stumpf said in an interview with the Financial Times.

Stumpf quashed repeated speculation that Wells, the fifth largest US bank, would take advantage of the collapse in the shares of many rivals to clinch a large deal.

“A large transformational [deal] is highly unlikely. Not impossible, but highly unlikely,” Mr Stumpf said. “We don’t need to do a deal. Organic growth is the core growth engine in this company.”

Market talk has linked the San Francisco bank with a number of rivals including Wachovia and Washington Mutual.

Wells was seen as a buyer because, in spite of suffering $3bn in credit-related losses, it has a strong balance sheet and has remained profitable throughout the crisis.

Its share price has outperformed the sector and its market value is about equal to that of the much bigger Citigroup (C).

As the only US bank with a top-notch triple A credit rating, Wells would also be able to borrow funds at advantageous rates.

Mr Stumpf noted that since the 1998 merger between Norwest and Wells Fargo, the group had eschewed large acquisitions, preferring to focus on bolt-on purchases of companies in the western states.

“We come from a culture where bigger is not better. You get bigger by being better, you don’t get better by being bigger,” he said, adding that Wells was also unlikely to stray from its western focus by buying on the East Coast.

Did anyone really think the WFC was going to go dumpster diving for Wachovia (WB) or Washington Mutual (WM)? Really?

Let’s look at the last big deal WFC did a decade ago now when it merged with Norwest. The merger at the time was considered a “merger of equals” in the press release.

At the time WFC CEO Richard Kovacevich said, “This merger of equals will bring together two high performing companies with complementary businesses, products, technology, markets and customers,” said Kovacevich. “It will be a leading franchise in the western United States with all the resources necessary to meet all of our customers’ financial needs and serve them when, where and how they want to be served.”

At the time, WFC shareholders, after the merger owned 52.5% of the new company and Norwest holders owned 47.5%.

I can’t imagine how anyone in their right mind would consider a WFC purchase of either the rumored banks above would garner even the most remote similarity. Could they? What would WFC give WaMu shareholders in a deal? Free checking?

As a matter of fact, can anyone find a WFC deal in which they bought desperate operations? I can’t and that is probably the reason they are not in the same boat as other banks now.

It is kind of like sitting here wondering what tech company Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett will buy, he won’t and WFC doesn’t do bad deals.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WFC, WB,C, none

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

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