After Buffett teased the investing world Friday saying he bought more of either Wells Fargo (WFC) or American Express, folks are speculating as to which one he bought. I was under the impression Buffett and Bekshire (BRK.a) had virtually tapped out their ability to buy more American Express (AXP) shares.
After buying 13% of the outstanding total, in 1995 Buffett agreed to the following in a letter to the Chairman Harvey Golub. The letter said Berkshire would not:
(1) acquire or retain shares that would cause its ownership of American Express** voting securities to equal or exceed 15% of the amount outstanding (if at such time Berkshire Hathaway has a representative on the Board of Directors of American Express as allowed by section 4 hereof), or otherwise acquire or retain shares that reflect ownership or more than 17% of the amount outstanding; _provided_ that for the purposes of this commitment shares held by officers or directors of Berkshire Hathaway shall be aggregated with shares held by Berkshire Hathaway;
Now, Berkshire does not currently have board representation on Amex (unless I missed a recent change) so if Buffett bought more, it would only be less than 2% of the total outstanding in order to comply with the agreement. I do not think that this agreement has been altered or changed, it may have been but I do not see where. If anyone know where it as, please let me know.
We know Buffett bought more Wells Fargo this spring at prices higher than current ones saying he saw value at those prices. If he think there is value there, he must logically see more now.
Of course Amex share did plunge earlier this summer, presenting a great buying opportunity, it is just that there isn’t much more buying Warren can do under the agreement.
We’ll find out in short order what he added, my bet is more Wells Fargo.
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WFC, None
Walgreen Co is the largest U.S. retail drug chain in terms of revenues. It sells prescription and non-prescription drugs, beauty care, personal care, household items, candy, photofinishing, greeting cards, seasonal items and convenience foods. Linked here is a detailed stock analysis and commentary.
The latest example of the power of dividends and dividend growth came on June 16 when U.S. Bank Wells Fargo (WFC) announced a 10% dividend increase. The stock market promptly celebrated big time. Normally dividend increases are hardly reported as news let alone get front page headlines.
In the quest to select solid dividend paying stocks that will appreciate over time and pay ever-increasing cash back to us in the form of dividends, success lies in the future, not the past. Sometimes the best dividend growing stocks for the future might be only in their infancy as far as dividend growth goes.
Sometimes being a dividend investor sucks. As part of my overall investing strategy, I state that ‘dividends are half the journey’. This essentially rules out any potential investments that pay a very small, and/or non-growing dividend. There are a few stocks, with stories that I believe in long term that were eliminated from my watchlist because of this fact.
In the quest to select solid dividend paying stocks that will appreciate over time and pay ever-increasing cash back to us in the form of dividends, success lies in the future, not the past. Sometimes the best dividend growing stocks for the future might be only in their infancy as far as dividend growth goes.
The general rule when buying and selling energy and commodity names is the reverse to other stocks; “buy when P/E ratios are high and sell when P/E ratios are low”. This strategy would work like a charm right now, if and only if, the energy and commodity bull market is coming to a close.
Earlier this week we looked at my top 5 high fliers for 2008. Unfortunately, for every up, there is a down and that is certainly true for my portfolio. As before, we will look at results through July 31, 2008. Here they are my cellar dwellers with comments:
Since 1984, Greenberg has outperformed the S&P 500 by almost 10% per year. One of the chief reasons he attributes to this is a strategy of anti-diversification!
A couple of months ago, Warren Buffett was kind enough to invite a group of us to Omaha to meet with him at Berkshire headquarters and subsequently dine at one of his favourite restaurants, Piccolo Pete’s.
Diageo is an international dividend achiever. It has been increasing its dividends for the past 10 consecutive years. From the end of 1997 up until August 2008 this dividend growth stock has delivered an annual average total return of 10.90 % to its shareholders. Diageo is the first international dividend company that I have analyzed in my pursuit of international exposure for my stock portfolio.
With profitability hitched to the notoriously cyclical moves of not one but two commodities, Terra Industries is one unpredictable stock. Can the current “perfect storm” for profitability last?
A detailed look at an odd-lot tender offer by someone other than Fat Pitch Financials! The United Rentals tender offer was a very standard tender offer, which was profitable for one financial blogger who shares his story.
Boring title isn’t it? I wanted to avoid the overused title “Size Matters” which for some reason is used as a headline for topics ranging anywhere from mp3 players to water-buffalo mating rituals. Nevertheless, the relevance of this assessment can’t be dismissed.
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Warren Buffett said the U.S. economy is unlikely to improve before 2009, and there was a “reasonable chance” that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shareholders would be wiped out though the companiesthemselves are too big to fail.
There is a commercial break in the middle of the video so do not tune out, there is more after.
Cramer actually said, “I like to challenge my own thesis when I am bullish on a stock because these are just pieces of paper.” Doesn’t that go against everything you are ever taught about investing and buying “pieces of great companies”?
Anyway, on to Stumpf.
Stumpf addresses and I think does a fantastic job refuting Meridith Whitney’s take on the company that it was playing with loan write offs to increase earnings. Stumpf points out that they took a $3 billion charge in Q2 and only $1.5 billion was write-downs ($1.5 billion increased reserves). Had they not changed to way they account for charge-offs, the difference would have been $254 million and covered in the reserves they took.
Best line. “We didn’t miss every bad party but we missed most of them”.
Video:
Wells Fargo’s (WFC) largest shareholder is Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WFC, None
Using the new Google Insights for Search tool, I examine the global patterns and trends of online investors searching for information on value investing since 2004. The article includes maps of the distribution of value investing globally and in the United States. It also includes a list of the top related search terms and the fastest rising searches for value investing.
A funny graphic depicting the thoughts running through the average investor’s head during a market dip. Make sure it doesn’t describe your thought process!
National Retail Properties is a dividend achiever as well as a component of the S&P 1500 index. It has been increasing its dividends for the past 18 consecutive years. From 1998 up until June 30 2008 this dividend growth stock has delivered an annual average total return of 9.60 % to its shareholders.
Air Products and Chemicals Inc. produces industrial gases and specialty and intermediate chemicals and also has interests in environmental and energy-related businesses. Linked here is a detailed stock analysis and commentary.
Ever since I started analyzing stocks on my blog, I have been gathering information about several stocks in my data folders. I wanted to check what was the relationship between the ten year dividend growth rate and the ten year total return of the stocks that I previously covered on my blog.
Bruce Berkowitz must be disappointed that the current Olympic Games program doesn’t include professional money management in the competition. If it did, the veteran stock picker’s neck would be weighted down with gold right now.
The latest Berkshire Hathaway 13F was just filed. It appears Warren Buffett increased his position in IngersollRand, SanofiAventis and added a new position in NRG Energy. It also appears the holdings in AnheuserBusch were reduced.
So, is this a repeat of 1990-1991? While the other banks are going bust, shedding assets and dumping garbage on their books for pennies on the dollar, Wells Fargo (WFC) quietly stays above the fray and expands. Today it announced the purchase of Century Bancshares ( From the release: “Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC) and Century Bancshares, Inc. said today they have signed a definitive agreement for Wells Fargo to acquire Century Bancshares and its banking operations in Dallas-Fort Worth, and Texarkana, Texas and Arkansas in a stock-for-stock merger. As a result of the acquisition, Arkansas will become Wells Fargo’s 24th community banking state.
The acquisition – requiring approval of regulators and Century Bancshares shareholders, and expected to be completed by the end of this year – will increase Wells Fargo’s presence in Dallas-Forth Worth, the U.S. metro area with the largest population increase from 2006 to 2007, according to census data. It also will make Wells Fargo No. 1 in deposit market share in Texarkana.
Closely held and based in Dallas, Century Bancshares has $1.4 billion in assets, $1.3 billion in deposits, $1.2 billion in loans, 32 banking locations and 485 employees. It has 28 Century Bank locations in nine Texas communities – Dallas (11); Atlanta; Addison; Farmers Branch (2); Frisco; The Colony; Plano (3); New Boston; and Texarkana (7). Four Century Bank locations are in Arkansas – Texarkana (3); and Ashdown. Century Bank is the leading financial institution in Texarkana and surrounding communities.
“The combination of Century Bank and Wells Fargo will be a great benefit for our customers, our employees and the communities we serve,” said Joe Nichols, CEO, Century Bancshares. “By teaming with Wells Fargo, we can continue delivering the excellent personal service and financial advice our customers expect, and offer them more products and services, and more convenience throughout Texas and the western United States. We also will remain a leader in supporting our north Texas and Texarkana communities.”
The key here is that Wells Fargo is now one of the largest institutions on a region that is growing at a break-neck pace and up until this point, has been relatively immune to the economic malaise affecting so much of the country.
This is the same playbook Wells Fargo played by at the turn of the 1990’s during the last housing downturn. It worked stunningly for shareholders then and looks to be loading them up for similarly out-sized gains now in the year to come. You’ll remember that Wells latest 10-Q did not contain the despair that other banks like Citi (C), Wachovia (WB) or even JP Morgan (JPM) did.
Berkshire’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett bought heavily into WFC then, one has to wonder if he is picking up more now..
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WFC, C, WB, None
The Tweedy, Browne Q2 letter has been released. Chris Browne if you remember is the author of the fine book “The Little Book of Value Investing”
From the Letter: “In our funds, it has been financial and media stocks that have accounted for a large part of our poor performance year to date. Even more recession-resistant companies such as our food and beverage holdings have performed poorly, as traders rotate in and out of groups of stocks in response to headline news and Wall Street research reports, which we consider extremely short-term oriented in their perspective. With the exception of a few oil companies in our high dividend fund, we have found precious little value in the high flying energy and basic material stocks which have been the darlings of the market. Strong core holdings such as Nestle (NESN) and Kone (KNEBV), where underlying fundamentals remain very strong and near-term corporate performance has been solid, have also been impacted by investor preference for all things energy and commodity-related. Following this update is a more complete statistical attribution analysis and performance history for each of our funds.
It should come as no surprise that pricing opportunities are surfacing and the discount between market value and intrinsic value is growing in the bulk of our portfolio. Our portfolio, in our view, has rarely been cheaper than it is today. In some instances the valuations seem somewhat anomalistic. For example, over the last several months we have established a position in Swiss Re (SWCEY), the world’s largest reinsurance company. The company at initial purchase was trading at 5 times earnings, 77% of book value, 70% of imbedded value and a 6% dividend yield. Earlier this year, Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett (BRK.A) purchased a 3% position in the company, and has agreed to take on 20% of Swiss Re’s property & casualty business over the next 5 years freeing up reserves for a stock buyback. We have also been buying Telecinco, Spain’s largest television production company. At initial purchase, it was trading at 4 times pretax income (EBIT), and had a 17% dividend yield with net cash on its balance sheet.
Another deeply undervalued current holding is Medikit, a Japanese medical device company, which is currently trading at 1.6 times pre-tax income (EBIT), and has a 2.5% dividend yield, once again with net cash on the balance sheet. While all of our stocks are not trading at these extreme valuations, they are indicative of some of the incredible bargains we are seeing in equity markets. Unfortunately, great opportunity is invariably accompanied by bad macroeconomics and near-term uncertainty. If the picture were clear, the pricing opportunity would not exist. In times like this, investors must try to steel their nerves and ignore the ever present market pundits who predict stock market collapses at the end of an era. These voices seem to always drown out more reasoned thought in times such as the present.
As you know, in recent years, we have been less than sanguine about the high valuation levels of public equities which afforded investors very little in the way of a “margin of safety”. We always promised our clients that when we felt it was time to add to their accounts, we would let them know. Well, the time has come, in our estimation, if your measure is buying businesses cheap. While no one can call the tipping point and stocks could indeed have further to fall, at current price levels, we feel we are being presented with unusual opportunities. Carpe diem.
Let’s look at the information gleamed from Dow chemical’s (DOW) Q2’s release and call and do a little projection for Q3. In the call the following exchange was had: Jeffrey Zekauskas – JPMorgan “Good morning. On average shouldn’t your raw material costs be down sequentially in the third quarter? Natural gas has gone from — I don’t know — $12 to $9 and oil has come from $135 to $125?”
Geoffery E. Merszei – Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Member of the Board of Directors “Yeah Jeff, this is Geoffrey here. Just to take oil, Brent crude average price as of this morning, let’s say, $124, $125. At today’s level it is still higher than our average cost during the first quarter. The average cost in the first quarter was around $122. I’m using crude as a reference point. And we are already towards the end of the first month of one-third of the quarter. So if you use an average rate for the third quarter of let’s say around $125, $126 then you are talking about over $0.5 billion additional cost for the company to absorb.”
It would look like that based on current demand for its products every $3 plus or minus in its cost of oil results in about a $500 million cost increase or decrease.
Dow’s Q2 average was $122 and change and oil now sits at $117. What is also of interest is the price increases announced earlier this summer were only about 40% implemented during Q2. By the time Q3 is finished, they ought to be fully implemented which means revenues ought to post another record quarter assuming no dramatic demand destruction (unlikely).
What does it all mean? Should oil prices remain lower than $122 for the quarter and with the price increases now fully implemented, the 66 cents a share earnings that analysts anticipate are beginning to look as though it is far too low.
Where are we at? July crude averaged $134 and August so far is at $120 and falling. On ought to expect that to fall father as July’s numbers were boosted by the early spike to $145 a barrel and to this point in August we have been below $120 for most of it. Of course one should also assume Dow may be entering into more contracts at lower prices now and that this will reduce the average purchase below just a simple daily average reading.
What if oil stays high? Let’s go with the scenario that oil ends up at the same $122 a barrel for Q3. We still have the implementation of the price increases coming through the system that will boost revenues.
It is still only 1/2 way through the quarter but I am thinking there are going to be a whole lot of shareholders very happy with the earnings surprise Dow turns in after Q3 is over…
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Dow, None
A follow-up on a post from March based on news today for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A).
Whitney Tilson and Andy Kilpatrick (who worte the best book on Berkshire, “Of Permanent Value”) were on CNBC today discussing the subject. Before we go on, watch what they said.
Now, earlier Tilson had this to say about housing and lenders.
Okay, so, if housing is going to drag for another 18 months, then Berkshire’s results will also. So, one would then expect lower comp. earnings and hence a lower share price.
Financials institutions like American Express (AXP), Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC), USB (USB), M&T Bank (MTB) make up about 30%-40% of Berkshire equity portfolio (it varies based on valuations). The argument can be made that these are the class of the financials and that may be true, but all have seen share prices cut almost in half in the last year and a half no mater their quality. The other parts are tied to housing (shares have suffered) and the consumer like Home Depot (HD), Lowes (LOW), USG (USG), Coke (KO) and others. A prolonged housing downturn could see further deterioration.
Wholly-owned subs such as Shaw Industries, Clayton Homes, Jordan’s Furniture (the are 4 furniture companies), Benjamin Moore, Home Services and Acme Brick and directly tied to housing and will suffer in the downturn Tilson predicts.
For all its holdings, Berkshire is essentially an insurance company. It has operated under “perfect” conditions for the last two years according to Buffett and eventually to run must end. Premiums are already falling and as houses are re-poed and fewer new cars are purchase, insurance premiums derived from those products will fall accordingly. I know people who are looking at homeowners and auto policies for way to decrease coverage and save money. Whether or not this is a good idea is irrelevant (I do not think it is), it is happening. Throw in a hurricane or two (we are due) and insurance could suffer quite a poor year.
Back in March when shares sat at $133,000 I argued they were not a “value”. Today they sit at $111,000. Are they a value now? Perhaps but one also has to expect that the near term, if Tilson is correct is fraught with potholes for Berkshire and earnings ought to take a hit.
Based on that, share price ought to suffer also meaning you will probably be able to pick them up cheaper down the road. If I owned shares would I sell? If I needed the money in the next year, yes. If I had a multi-year time frame would I sell? No. If that was the case I would be watching down the road for a cheaper entry price, I think you’ll get it.
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WFC, None
AutoNation (AN) released results today and the news was far better than one would expect given its current operating environment.
America’s largest automotive retailer, today reported 2008 second quarter net income from continuing operations of $53 million or $0.29 per share, compared to year-ago net income from continuing operations of $79 million or $0.38 per share. After adjusting for certain items disclosed in the attached financial tables, net income from continuing operations for the 2008 second quarter was $59 million or $0.33 per share, compared to $76 million or $0.36 per share in the prior year. analysts had expected $.30 cents a share.
Second quarter 2008 revenue totaled $3.9 billion, compared to $4.5 billion in the year-ago period, driven primarily by lower new vehicle sales. In the second quarter, total U.S. industry retail sales declined 16%, based on CNW Research data. In comparison, in the second quarter AutoNation’s new vehicle unit sales declined 12%. Commenting on the second quarter, Mike Jackson, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said, “Despite the fact that this past quarter was the most challenging automotive sales environment any of us have encountered, AutoNation delivered solid profitability.” Mr. Jackson also noted, “In the second quarter, the industry encountered $4.00 per gallon gasoline on top of the continued housing depression and credit crisis, resulting in a significant challenge as consumers are either postponing the purchase of vehicles or they are purchasing smaller vehicles that are more economical both at the time of purchase and at the pump. We now believe that, in 2008, U.S. new vehicle industry sales will decline to the low-14 million unit level.”
Mr. Jackson added, “In continuing response to the ongoing macroeconomic and industry challenges, we are executing a cost reduction plan with a targeted annualized run rate pre-tax savings of $100 million. In the first half of the year, we achieved approximately $25 million of this benefit. In the second half of the year, we expect to achieve approximately $50 million of savings, for a full-year 2008 impact of $75 million on a pre-tax basis. Our targeted annualized cost savings include reductions in advertising spending, corporate overhead expense and store personnel expense.” Full release:
I don’t think (at least I hope) anyone is buying share of AutoNation now expecting an immediate payoff. This is a true value investment. The deal here is that when auto’s rebound, AutoNation, being the largest and also the most well run organization of the lot will benefit the most from its currently depressed levels.
Jackson is cutting costs and making the necessary moves to position the company for the rebound.
Watch him on CNBC this morning:
Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn seems to back Jackson’s thoughts. The advantage Jackson has is that he will benefit from all the automakers, and whatever trend(s) emerge not just one.
With famed investors like Berkshires’s (BRK.A) Buffett, Sears’ (SHLD) Lampert, Gates, Leucadia (LUK) and Sullivan jumping into the sector, now it the time to be buying shares.
Still on vacation but some things need attention. Read some of Goldman Sachs’ (GS) research report on Sherwin Williams (SHW) today..
“Although the company’s long-term growth potential remains intact, we are cautious that the cost and demand headwinds will continue challenging SHW in the near term: (1) our economists expect existing home sales (key indicator for paint demand) to trough in 1H2009; (2) the overall non- residential market is poised for a downturn as a substantially tighter credit condition and slowing overall activity weigh on the sector; (3) the raw material cost spike will reach a crescendo on SHW’s P&L in 2H2008 and the consolidation among leading paint ingredient suppliers (DOW & ROH) may exert additional cost pressure on the paint industry; (4) the double blow of demand weakness and cost spikes could limit the success of SHW’s ongoing aggressive price hikes. Therefore, we see meaningful downside risk to SHW’s earnings and share price in the short term.”
So, short term problem but long term, everything ok. Sell???
Isn’t this a textbook case of what Berkshire Hathaway’s (BEK.A) Warren Buffett means when he say “buy fear”?
I mean, things look tough so sell the hell out of it? Ought we not buy it when there are short term problem that do not affect the long term outlook and growth potential? If you are a current shareholder, Goldman is saying that sell you shares even though long term they expect them to be fine because they may dip for the next months.
These “buy” and “sell” ratings really ought to be ignored by anyone who holds securities for more than a month. They are only good for the day they are issued. Anyone remember all the “buy” recommendations on Google as it neared $700 a share?
1. With $35bn to spare, Buffett is poised to feed off the bear
(via www.guardian.co.uk)
During the great bear market of 1974, Warren Buffett was asked by a rather staid fellow how he felt. ‘Like an over-sexed guy in a whorehouse,’ he replied. ‘Now is the time to invest and get rich.’
I’ve had the good fortune of a friend loaning to me Seth Klarman’s Margin of Safety. The following are my notes on the chapter entitled “At the Root of a Value-Investment Philosophy” where Klarman writes about the three central elements to a value-investment philosophy.
Sir John M. Templeton, a Tennessee-born investor and philanthropist who amassed a fortune in global stocks and gave away hundreds of millions of dollars to foster understanding in what he called “spiritual realities,” died on Tuesday in Nassau, the Bahamas, where he had lived for decades. He was 95.
By the end of the year, Time Warner Cable (TWC), will be a stand alone entity after being spun off from Time Warner Inc. (TWX). TWC is a publicly traded company as it currently stands, 84% owned by its parent, Time Warner Inc. The carve-out occured early in 2007, trading between $36-43, but has plummeted down into the $20’s since.
Some may have wondered what is the connection between Dividend and Value Investing. The connection does not necessarily exist in all cases. For example, an investor selecting investments based solely on dividend yield, is not considering the value aspect of the equation.
This short post by Todd Sullivan includes a video of Warren Buffett and Bill Gates being interviewed on Fox Business. The topic is missed acquisition opportunities.
recently stumbled upon this article from William P. Bengen “DETERMINING WITHDRAWAL RATES USING HISTORICAL DATA”. The basic idea behind this research is that year over year fluctuations in annual returns could drastically change the standard of living of retired individuals, who rely on their investments for income.
Canadian food retailing stocks have gone on sale, says star value manager Gaelen Morphet, first vice-president of Canadian equities at CIBC Global Asset Management.
Barely one day in, the Sun Valley conference has already helped to produce a multibillion-dollar merger deal — but not the kind you might expect. Dow Chemical has agreed to buy Rohm & Haas for $18.8 billion, with a big slug of financing from Warren Buffett, the legendary value investor who recently arrived in Sun Valley.