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FINALLY……Schoonover Gone….FINALLY

If Circuit city (CC) shareholders (what few there are left) aren’t dancing around like it is Mardi Gras’, there isn’t anything that will make them do it. After almost a year of my pleading, CEO Phillip “Phil The Shill” Schoonover has finally been asked to “pursue other opportunities”.

Schoonover, who served as chairman, president and chief executive officer, was brought in from Best Buy (BBY) four years ago to turn around Circuit City. Instead, the 48-year-old executive, who was named CEO two years ago, presided over a further deterioration in the company.

The latest blunder was when Blockbuster (BBI) offered to buy Circuit City for $1 billion, or about $6 to $8 a share (it currently trades under $2). It ended in July when the Blockbuster rescinded its offer after Circuit City inexplicably would not open its books. That gaffe followed the replacing (firing) of 10% of the highest-paid, most-seasoned staff in the company’s stores, in an effort to reduce costs. It turned out those “high paid” people were the only ones who actually knew how to sell the products in the stores. This was evident when only months later the begged them to return.

All these of course follow buyout offers of $17 and $23 a share that Schoonover and his merry band of shareholder wealth destroyers dismissed as “too low” and “inadequate”. Uh huh.

What is still disappointing here is that it took this long to finally pull the plug. It is a lesson in giving too much power to a person who has not earned it through results. Circuit city has been in a free fall for two years now and every move Schoonover made only increased the downward velocity. It is one thing to have a deteriorating operating environment, it is another entirely to have management mistake time after time cause conditions to worsen…..for two years!!

Now that this chapter is finally done. we can look at Circuit City. I believe it has a valuable brand, quality real estate in good locations and a valuable franchise in their “Fire Dog” operations. They have just been abysmally run…

I just need to find out more about the current “acting” CEO and wait for the replacement.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):none
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Starbucks’ Confusing Memo

So, Howard Schultz the billionaire will not get a salary raise at Starbucks (SBUX) this year. This is news why? The memo gets leaked and then there is a section in it that catches my eye.

From the memo:

All U.S. vice presidents and above, including Howard Schultz and the senior leadership team, will receive no salary increases this year.

Based on Starbucks year-to-date performance, we are not currently on track to reach the requisite financial targets for the General Management Incentive Plan (GMIP). When we announce FY08 results in November, GMIP participants will learn more about the status of bonus payouts.

What status? If you are not on track to meet the targets, there ought to be nothing, correct? Or, are we going to play the Circuit City (CC) game of lowering the target and give them a bonus in lieu or a “raise next year”? Or, are we going to lower targets and increase incentives for next year so it all comes out in the wash? That statement was just way too ambiguous for me.

I am going to watch this. Think about it. How far has the brand fallen when corporate actions can be looked at in the same vein as those at Circuit City?

View full memo


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Circuit City "Still for Sale": Who’d Buy It?

Blockbuster (BBI) offers almost a 100% premium to your current price and then complains your disclosure is inadequate, why would any other suitor step forward?

Circuit City (CC) announced:

Director James A. Marcum, 49, has been appointed vice chairman of the company. In this executive officer position, Marcum will play a key role in leading the efforts to accelerate the pace of the company’s turnaround.

“The board and I selected Jim for this role because he is a highly-experienced retail turnaround executive,” said Philip J. Schoonover, Circuit City’s chairman, president and chief executive officer. “I believe he will be a great partner to me and the rest of the management team as we focus on ways to improve our business. Today’s announcement shows that the management team remains fully committed to delivering value to shareholders in the near term through the successful execution of our turnaround plan. Meanwhile, the board continues to pursue strategic alternatives for the company that offer the best possible results for our shareholders in the long term.”

Why would any other buyer come forward? What will most likely happen is whomever may want it will wait until it files bankruptcy and then pick it up on the cheap.

Let’s not forget that this is the third offer in 5 years the company has scuttled. Any one of those offers would have shareholders far better off than they are today. Circuit City is just not a valuable enough asset for a potential buyer to go through the obvious hassle that would be involved in making an offer.

Now, things do get interesting if the new vice chairman is eventually placed in charge of the company, replacing current CEO Schoonover. But, until something like this happens, just sit back and watch it fall apart…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Schoonover Playing Fiddle on Deck While Titanic Sinks

Remember the scene from the movie “Titanic”? As the ship is going down, the group of violinists stays on decks playing thinking the ship ultimately will not sink. I am pretty sure one of them was Circuit City (CC) CEO Phil Schoonover.

Five years after Circuit City refused an $8-a-share offer from Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim and a 2005 $17-a-share offer by hedge fund Highfields Capital Management LP Schoonover & Crew messed up a $6 to $8 offer from Blockbuster (BBI). Shares today sit at $1.75. Why did Blockbuster back out? Lack of disclosure from Circuit City.

Now word comes word that a they have put on hold the completion of a $45 million distribution facility near Scranton, Pa., which had been slated to begin operations later this year. The facility was to replace two others in an effort to streamline operation and save money. When you don’t have the cash to spend (even after canceling the dividend) to save cash, things are really tight.

The WSJ did a piece yesterday that has a classic paragraph
“In July, Mr. Schoonover asked investors to forget much of the Richmond, Va., company’s recent history: turnarounds that didn’t materialize, a revolving door of top executives and burgeoning losses. Instead, he held out a vision of a company “on the right track with the right strategies, the right talent and improved processes,” he said in a conference call with investors.”

Schoonover then went out and destroyed investors last hope of seeing more than $3 each for their shares anytime this decade.

In a final irony, Schoonover, who was interviewed by the Journal last year about “how to execute a turnaround” declined to be interviewed for this story. Good idea.

The Journal continued:
“Circuit City has a secured credit line of about $1 billion that could allow it to withstand losses for the rest of the year, assuming continued support by its big suppliers. Supplier discontent helped send retailers Linens ‘n Things, Steve & Barry’s and Mervyn’s to seek bankruptcy protection this year.

Circuit City also recently filed a shelf registration that would allow it to bolster its capital by selling new shares or to find debt-assuming buyers. A Circuit City spokesman says that “the vendors are still supporting us.””

OK. Who would buy it? Really? CC has enough credit available to hang on for a while assuming vendors will continue to sell them product on credit. That is by no means a sure thing. Credit is tightening for companies with good outlooks and this little thing called profits. For a struggling company, hemorrhaging money using the credit card to buy products to lose more money, credit will evaporate.

If we believe the economy will struggle or flatline through 2009, then CC is done. They cannot make it through another year like this. Perhaps the buy a lifeline if they can sell their Canadian stores, but not a lengthy one.

I think in six months it will be proven the Blockbuster offer was the “last chance” for shareholders it was.

What Schoonover and The Board has done there should be criminal..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Bits and Pieces From the Week Away

Some tidbits…

– Starbucks finally decided to close some locations, 600 of them. Back in Feb. I said about the then announced plans, “100 US store closing just are not even the beginning of what is necessary”. Sorry folks….600…still not enough.

– Blockbuster (BBI) realized Circuit City (CC) sucks and 1 + 1 does not equal 3.

– Now that lead paint litigation is dying, Sherwin Williams (SHW) must look even more attractive to potential buyers.

– Berkshire Hathaway posted its worst first half in 18 years….has Buffett “lost it”? (please note sarcasm….)

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Monday Humor, Otherwise Known as the Cicuit City (CC) Earnings Call

Some of these are priceless, when I get into this I feel like I am in a Corporate version of “Spinal Tap”. I think Schoonover actually believes himself…

“I am very pleased to report to you that our first quarter results were above our guidance and the company is on track to deliver its financial guidance for the year. Fiscal year 2009 will be a year of very hard work and focus on execution, but we expect to improve our financial performance compared with fiscal year 2008 and set the stage to return to sustainable profitability in the future.” said Schoonover leading off the latest earnings call.

OK, but wasn’t Q1 already considerably worse than last year and did we expect Q2 to be worse that last year? Answer? It was and Q2 will be. Just how good does Schoonover expect Q’s 3 and 4 to be?

“We saw improvement in trends in nearly every category. The work is progressing well and we must maintain our focus in order to produce year-over-year improvement in our financial results.”

True, except for sales, profits, margins, debt and cash. They were all worse.

COO John Harlow said:
“We measure customer satisfaction in two ways; one, through third-party mystery shops; and second, through customer first scores. We saw another 250 basis point improvement in mystery shop scores from March to May, on top of a 600 basis point improvement we saw from when we started measuring in July to March.”

You could measure them in repeat sales? After a larger drop (12.2%) than any other electronics retailer last quarter, people are just not shopping there.

Back to Schoonover:
“We still have a long way to go but I am encouraged by what we’ve been able to accomplish in the quarter. In short, we are building a new Circuit City that will be much stronger when economic headwinds subside. Bill.”

Now, he has been there for three for three years now and results have deteriorated even when the were not only no “economic headwinds” but “tailwinds”. That gives us no reason to expect anything different when the do “subside” which, by the way, may be another year or so.

Why will the 2nd half of this year be better than last?

Schoonover: “Just one last thing — on a go-forward basis, as I think you’ve seen, the first quarter is certainly the most difficult quarter on the two-year comps for us and so as we go through the year, the ability to sustain and build versus an area where we had slipped last year, we see that as being another level of our ability to deliver for Q2 and beyond.”

So, it will not be due to a resurgence of the business but “easier comps”. Way to go boys…

Here is a great exchange:

Michael Lasser – Lehman Brothers

“It sounds like a lot of the focus has been on the in-store experience and you are pleased with some of the gains that you’ve made there with improving the close rate and the like. Can you talk a bit more about what you are doing to improve traffic and the draw rate? Because perhaps some of the improvements that you are witnessing are due to the declines in traffic and you are losing, you are moving closer to a core group of customers and as you lose out on some of those folks that have a lower propensity to purchase, that would cause the close rate to increase. So perhaps you could talk a little bit about the traffic.”

John J. Kelly:CMO

“Some of the things that we are doing to improve traffic in addition, we obviously had been using our movies and music departments to drive traffic. Now we’ve moved into some of the more commodity type of products, such as Flash media and other types of media, product-centric and PC accessories to drive traffic. You are seeing demand for that type of product as prices come down and it begins to [commodicize] the ability for us to use those products as traffic drivers, and use them out in front, the front covers and back covers of our task to drive people into the building to purchase these products, and we can use that to offset what we see as a decline in music and movies.”

John T. Harlow: COO

“I think our plans and strategies this year focus on close rate and basket attach, and we expect in a tougher economy with declining industry trends in packaged media to actually see less traffic.

We mentioned a couple of times that our first quarter was our toughest comp. It was also our toughest traffic comp for the year last year, and we have aggressive promotional calendars throughout the year around all the holiday drive times, beginning with back-to-school later this summer.

But bottom line here is most of the changes we’ve made are in the home entertainment side of our store. That’s roughly half of our company’s revenue and more than half the company’s profit. We are focused on optimizing those customers from a revenue standpoint and from a profit standpoint.”

OK, but can you answer the question now? Are the “customer service” gains constantly mentioned simply due to the fact that those being quantified are those that are “the choir” and love the store? Are they the only ones left to judge now that the median buyer has left for Best Buy (BBY)?

Were are still waiting for the answer boys…

You know what this reminded me off? The Captain of the Titanic walking around marveling at the newly painted dining room of the ship while it slowly sinks.


Read the whole call here:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Circuit City…..going ….going…. Schoonover Inexplicably Still There

CEO Phillip Schoonover continues to be devoid of any reality……you have to read this.

Circuit City (CC) says its loss widened in the first quarter because of a 11.3% drop in sales at established stores ads it is also suspending its dividend. The soon to be extinct retailer reported a loss of $164.8 million, or $1 per share, compared with a loss of $54.6 million, or 33 cents per share a year ago. Circuit City Stores Inc. says revenue fell 7% to $2.30 billion from $2.49 billion.

For the Q2, Circuit City (CC) expects a loss of $170 million to $185 million. Analysts expect a loss of $143.4 million.

Lousy, right? Not according to Schoonover..

“In the first quarter, we continued to see improvement in many of our operating performance measures,” said Philip J. Schoonover, chairman, president and chief executive officer of Circuit City Stores, Inc. “We are rebuilding our selling culture and focusing on creating a good first and last impression with the customer. We have seen improved trends in our store close rate and in our services and accessories attachments, and we are delivering a better customer experience in our stores as evidenced by the upward trends in our third-party mystery shop scores. In short, the quarter represented improved execution and solid, steady progress towards our goals, and we expect to start to see year-over-year improvements in our financial results beginning in the second half of the year. I want to thank our associates for maintaining a sharp focus on expense controls, in order to build a more competitive cost structure, as well as for their hard work and dedication throughout the quarter.”

How about looking at some metrics that actually matter? Executive compensation? Sales collapsed, profits collapsed, margins fell, expenses as a percentage of sales rose, cash balances fell 74% to $94 million, accounts payable rose and debt rose 30%.

But wait, there is more:
“Crisp execution of our retail turnaround efforts remains our primary focus. The outcome of those efforts will position Circuit City well for the future and help us to capitalize on the anticipated improvement in the macroeconomic climate during the second half of the fiscal year,” concluded Schoonover.

Now, Phil, how about we just stop the collapse before we start talking about turning this thing around? Nothing good has happened in the three years you have been there.

If that was not enough, it would seem they are going to turn down the overture from Blockbuster (BBI). While I fell that it would be a disaster for Blockbuster, it would be the best thing for Circuit city holders as they will never see the price Blockbuster offered in this decade.

Said Schoonover, “As we previously announced, the board of directors is leading a process to explore strategic alternatives to enhance shareholder value, and that review continues. The board has not determined any course of action. As part of that process, today we filed a shelf registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission in order to give us greater flexibility to respond to strategic opportunities as they arise. Separately, during the quarter, we settled the potential proxy contest with Wattles Capital Management.”

What other choice could he possibly have? Nothing he has done in three years has worked. Just sell the damn things and give shareholder something….

The final slap in the face?

the company reaffirmed the following outlooks:
Fiscal 2009 Outlook
The company reaffirmed the following expectations for fiscal 2009:
— Consolidated net sales relatively unchanged from the prior year
— A mid-single digit domestic segment comparable store sales decline

Uh, any idea about little things like profits or losses? It kind of really does matter more than the other two above…

Jeez…one more
“For the second quarter, the company expects to record a loss from continuing operations before income taxes of $170 million to $185 million, compared with a loss of $128.2 million in the prior year second quarter. While the expected loss is larger than the prior year period, the year-over- year increase in the loss is significantly smaller than the increase in the first quarter loss.”

Translation? Q2 will suck also, just not as bad as Q1. I think they want a pat on the back for that.

Great job guys…

I am trying to come up with something funny to say but I cannot think of anything better than what is in this press release…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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ValuePlays Most Read Posts for May

Here are the most read posts for May

1- Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: Leucadia Releases 13-F: Can you Spell Concentrated Portfolio?

2- Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: NetFlix Beats Blockbuster Again (update with video)

3- Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: Circuit City On The Bankruptcy Express

4- Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: Warren is Everywhere, Why?

5- Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: “Complete Turtle Trader” Book Review

6- Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: Phillip Morris Int. Tender Offer: Just How Dumb Does TRC Capital Think We Are??!!!??

7- Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: Lampert Reports Sallie Mae Stake

8- Todd Sullivan’s – ValuePlays: GE to Sell Appliance Unit, Lampert Interested?

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Netflix Pulls Further Ahead of Blockbuster

This is just beautiful……

Netflix (NFLX) CEO Reed Hastings gave a timeline for the company to convert its business to digital distribution: 5 years. After that, he believes the mail-order DVD business will peak and then start to decline.

“We think the by-mail business is very strong but will probably peak in the next five years. Our key challenge is growing earnings per share and subscribers while funding streaming which should give us years of subscriber and earnings expansion.”

This comes less than two weeks after the company rolled out its set-top box to good reviews.

The news here is the contrast between two companies. One doggedly hanging on to an outdated business model and being dragged into the current one and another, a pioneer in the current model already looking down the road at the next one.

Rather than buying a heap of problems at Circuit City (CC) and trying to convert its video rental stores in Apple (AAPL) store look-a-likes, Blockbuster ought to be using that energy and the money involved to try to leap ahead of Netflix in the download game. It has not ruined its brand yet and any box that streamed movies into the home would get a try by folks.

But, the longer they wait, the more the current offerings become entrenched with consumers and the harder, and more expensive, changing their behavior becomes.

But hey, Blockbuster will always have the less than 1% of the population that actually still likes going to the video store…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Blockbuster Closes Stores, Makes Money….Duh!!!!

Blockbuster (BBI) reported net income for the first quarter of 2008 was $45.4 million, or $0.20 per diluted share, an improvement of $94.4 million as compared with a net loss of $49.0 million, or $0.27 per share, for the first quarter of 2007.

Total revenues decreased 5.4% to $1.39 billion for the first quarter of 2008 from $1.47 billion for the first quarter of 2007, as a result of fewer company-operated stores. Domestic same-store revenues increased 2.9% as compared to the first quarter of 2007, reflecting a 920 basis point improvement over the first quarter of 2007. This increase was driven by a 0.4% growth in same-store rental revenues and a 19.7% increase in same-store merchandise sales. International same-store revenues decreased 1.5% from the same period last year, reflecting a 0.9% increase in same-store rental revenues and a 4.9% decline in same-store merchandise sales. Worldwide same-store revenues grew 1.4% from the same period last year.

More importantly, they had a $124.5 million increase in cash flow provided by operating activities for the first quarter of 2008 to a deficit of $19.5 million from a $144.0 million deficit for the first quarter of 2007. Free cash flow (net cash flow used for operating activities less capital expenditures) for the first quarter of 2008 improved by $115.6 million as compared to the same period last year to a negative $39.4 million.

What happened? Essentially domestic same-store sales grew for the first time in five years and total revenue fell because of the decrease in company-owned stores.
Rather than having 5 blockbusters in a town, they decreased it to one and folks still went to the store. It has been just over a year since I first pleased for blockbuster to “increase the rate of store closures” and have posted the request countless times.

Now CEO Jim Keyes said “The significant improvement in our first quarter results demonstrates the underlying strength of our core rental and emerging retail business.” I would not go that far Jim, having less shareholder money go out the door to support poor stores and then having those folks rent from another location will improve your results but it does not necessarily mean the core business is strong. It does mean there is a base of customer and that you may finally be on the right track.

The only problem is the store rental base will continue to shrink as more folks go online for rentals or turn to the mail for them. Unless Keyes can convert these folks to his mail or kiosk concept. Blockbuster will continue to shrink. Last quarter the mail division subs were at 3.1 million, stable from the previous one. This need to grow as store rentals will continue to shrink. If it doesn’t, it means people are going elswhere.

Blockbuster may finally be on the right track, why on earth would they want to pay for the privilege of taking over Circuit City’s (CC) problems now?

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Circuit City Finally Admits it's Failing

Circuit City (CC) CEO Phil “The Shill” Schoonover must be looking at sales numbers for the current quarter.

Schoonover has finally decided to open the books for Blockbuster (BBI) and billionaire Carl Icahn. A new letter to Blockbuster that was given to Circuit City from Icahn states that, “subject to him being satisfied with his due diligence review of Circuit City to be conducted concurrently with Blockbuster, Mr. Icahn and/or entities affiliated with him stand ready to purchase Circuit City if Blockbuster were unable to receive financing or required shareholder approval to do so after satisfactory due diligence, and assuming that required regulatory approvals are obtained.”

In an April 24th letter to Schoonover, Blockbuster CEO Jim Keyes said “We need to bring closure to this process. If we have not been provided the opportunity to begin due diligence by the close of business on April 28, 2008, we plan to announce that we are withdrawing our proposal to acquire Circuit City in light of your refusal to provide us access despite repeated efforts on our part to satisfy your concerns.”

Schoonover, at least smart enough to know this was his only option, relented.

Said Schoonover, “While the Circuit City board has confidence in the company’s ability to successfully implement its turnaround plan and generate shareholder value, we believe that we can best serve the interests of our shareholders by exploring all possible alternatives to enhance shareholder value. Let me be clear that our decision to allow Blockbuster and Carl Icahn to conduct due diligence should not be taken as an indication that the board has completed its review of the Blockbuster proposal, that the board has taken a position on the company’s value or that it has settled upon a particular strategic course of action.”

Translation? CC is in trouble and a purchase by either Blockbuster or Icahn are the only thing out there now that will save them and shareholders from destruction.

CC has been looking into a sale for quit some time now. Back in March I posted that they had retained Goldman Sachs (GS) as an “adviser” and speculated it was for a sale. It appears it was.

So, should we go buy shares anticipating a sale? No. There is no guarantee that CC management will be reasonable and get a deal done and Icahn, who is smarter than Schoonover in his sleep, will not pay more than he wants for the company.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GS, None

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Circuit City Finally Admits it’s Failing

Circuit City (CC) CEO Phil “The Shill” Schoonover must be looking at sales numbers for the current quarter.

Schoonover has finally decided to open the books for Blockbuster (BBI) and billionaire Carl Icahn. A new letter to Blockbuster that was given to Circuit City from Icahn states that, “subject to him being satisfied with his due diligence review of Circuit City to be conducted concurrently with Blockbuster, Mr. Icahn and/or entities affiliated with him stand ready to purchase Circuit City if Blockbuster were unable to receive financing or required shareholder approval to do so after satisfactory due diligence, and assuming that required regulatory approvals are obtained.”

In an April 24th letter to Schoonover, Blockbuster CEO Jim Keyes said “We need to bring closure to this process. If we have not been provided the opportunity to begin due diligence by the close of business on April 28, 2008, we plan to announce that we are withdrawing our proposal to acquire Circuit City in light of your refusal to provide us access despite repeated efforts on our part to satisfy your concerns.”

Schoonover, at least smart enough to know this was his only option, relented.

Said Schoonover, “While the Circuit City board has confidence in the company’s ability to successfully implement its turnaround plan and generate shareholder value, we believe that we can best serve the interests of our shareholders by exploring all possible alternatives to enhance shareholder value. Let me be clear that our decision to allow Blockbuster and Carl Icahn to conduct due diligence should not be taken as an indication that the board has completed its review of the Blockbuster proposal, that the board has taken a position on the company’s value or that it has settled upon a particular strategic course of action.”

Translation? CC is in trouble and a purchase by either Blockbuster or Icahn are the only thing out there now that will save them and shareholders from destruction.

CC has been looking into a sale for quit some time now. Back in March I posted that they had retained Goldman Sachs (GS) as an “adviser” and speculated it was for a sale. It appears it was.

So, should we go buy shares anticipating a sale? No. There is no guarantee that CC management will be reasonable and get a deal done and Icahn, who is smarter than Schoonover in his sleep, will not pay more than he wants for the company.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GS, None

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Blockbuster (BBI) Seeing what Sticks to the Wall

Ever hear the saying “throw some $#%t against the wall and see what sticks”? Thus seems to be Blockbuster’s (BBI) current business plan.

After being late to the video by mail model, late to the box top set model, talking about turning their obsolete locations into Apple Stores (AAPL) like locations, and attempting a doomed from the start takeover of Circuit City (CC), Blockbuster is trying something else.

Now Blockbuster is in talks about taking a stake in the new premium TV channel to be launched by Viacom with Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF) and Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer.

Ok. Haven’t we all come to the conclusion blockbuster doesn’t have the financial ability to complete the proposed Circuit city deal? How do they intend on doing this also? Have you ever seen a company run in so many seemingly disconnected directions at once?

This smacks of desperation. Blockbuster could survive and even prosper and compete with Netflix (NFLX) if they would only acknowledge what everyone but them seemingly understands, they need to close their stores. Should that happen, the cash save could possibly finance one or some of the shotgun like business moves they are contemplating. They cannot, however, keep them and do the others..

I guess the only thing left to do for them is to talk about a merger with Sprint (S)?

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Starbucks Now An Avoid At All Costs

I have calmed down enough to finally put some thoughts down.

Starbucks (SBUX) U.S. comp sales fell by the mid-single digits on a percentage basis due to lower traffic (no kidding). U.S. same-store sales fell 1% in the Q1, the first drop since Starbucks began breaking out the figure in 2004. Global same-store sales rose just 1% in that period, the lowest figure since Starbucks went public in 1992.

Starbucks now says it expects earnings for Q1 of 15 cents a share, down from the prior year’s 19 cents (21% decline), with revenue up 12%.

As a result FY2009 earnings to be “somewhat lower” than the last year’s 87 cents. Starbucks said it can’t be more specific “due to the lack of visibility into near-term economic conditions.” In January they projected earnings of 96 cents to 98 cents. Funny how they can be very specific when expecting an increase but when a decrease is in the cards, they just cannot finger it. Translation? It will be very bad…

Althought, management does have a history of deceiving shareholders.

Looking at this (and after reading yesterday’s excuses)one can only assume we are approaching a depression until one looks at the other headlines from late in the day Wednesday.


Mac Sales Boost Apple’s (AAPL) Profit

Amazon’s Revenue Soars 37%

So I guess the reasoning now is that folks will pony up $3000 for a Mac but not $4 for a latte? Maybe the myriad of items being bought on Amazon (AMZN) each day are under $4?

The problem is that Starbucks has stopped giving people what they want. Schultz actually said people are “spending less” at his stores but “not going anywhere else”.

DELUSIONAL….. Howard, you sell an addictive beverage that people cannot go without. If they are not getting it from you, they are getting it from someone else. This is like an old prostitute whose business is in decline thinking people have just stopped using prostitutes. No, they are, just not you.

Has be bothered to look at the results at Mcdonald’s (MCD)? Saying “we are above them” while sales crash around you is nice if you are the captain of the Titanic going down with the ship, if you are the CEO of the company, investors are going down with you.

The final insult? Schultz refuses blame for the last three years.
“While this is having a substantial impact on our performance, I am as enthusiastic as I was when I returned to Starbucks as CEO 3 1/2 months ago about our opportunity to reinvigorate the Starbucks Experience.” Schultz is giving the impression that he “needs time” to work the turnaround.

Earth to Howard, you have been Chairman the whole time. You never left. One could say you have overseen this disaster. What should they do? Here, try this, it can’t do much worse.

One could honestly say that at least Phillip Schoonover at Circuit City (CC) acknowledges what he is doing is not working and things need to change dramatically. Schultz is blaming…housing….sad…

I wish I had shorted this thing over 15 months ago when I first pointed out the problems killing it today.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None (thankfully)

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

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CC + BBI = Sears + Kmart? Uh, No

The latest pondering out there has the proposed Circuit City (CC) and Blockbuster (BBI) the equivalent to the merger of Sears and Kmart that created Sears Holdings (SHLD). While a nice exercise, it lacks one thing, legitimacy.

For the best analysis of the exercise, read here:

Here is were is falls apart and it does so before it actually get started really. Sears and Kmart did the same thing, retail. Specifically clothing, lawn and garden, electronics, auto and the rest of the big box general retailer gambit. The combination of the two created the nation’s third largest retailer with sales of over $50 billion a year. The combination of BBI and CC will do nothing to increase the size of either in their prospective industries.

Blockbuster rents dvd’s and Circuit City sells them it their stores. They also both…..well…..they don’t do anything else in common. Other that the fact they both have dvd’s in their stores, the two businesses have no similarities at all, other than poor management.

A Circuit City and RadioShack (RSH) merger would be a similar comparison to Sears / Kmart as those businesses are very similar. There would be, in that case, cost savings involved with the merger that could be realized and the two businesses would have selling synergies that could boost results. Also there is the little reality that RadioShack’s Julian Day could out-manage CC’s Phil Schoonver in a coma.

One also has to remember the Sears / Kmart merger has produced a 10 fold increase in shareholder value, does anyone out there actually think a Circuit City / Blockbuster one will produce even remotely similar results? Anyone? Does anyone actually think they will be even profitable considering the debt load necessary to pull off the deal?

Other than the fact that both situations involved two companies merging, there are virtually no other similarities.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHLD, none

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

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