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$$ "Davidson" on the Recovery….

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$$ “Davidson” …. New Demand Every 11 Seconds

“Davidson” is on a roll. For those newcomers not aware who Davidson is, it is a pseudonym. He wishes to remain anonymous. Suffice it to say he is a very, very smart individual who in early March 2009 during one of our conversations, whit the DJIA at 6700 said, “it is time to go all in” and laughed at the market collapse. Call of the decade in my book. For that reason, his commentary is worth considering seriously

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$$ "Davidson" …. New Demand Every 11 Seconds

“Davidson” is on a roll. For those newcomers not aware who Davidson is, it is a pseudonym. He wishes to remain anonymous. Suffice it to say he is a very, very smart individual who in early March 2009 during one of our conversations, whit the DJIA at 6700 said, “it is time to go all in” and laughed at the market collapse. Call of the decade in my book. For that reason, his commentary is worth considering seriously

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“The Inflation Conundrum”

“Davidson” makes some salient points..

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"The Inflation Conundrum"

“Davidson” makes some salient points..

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$$ Help Wanted Index’s Positive S&P Correlation

“Davidson” submits:

The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index(HWOL) was reported today up by 222,700 to 4,150,000 indicating that:

“…labor demand in April rose in practically every State and a wide variety of occupations from management positions to office workers and sales help.

This report is very positive for the economy and for investment markets. The relationship between markets, employment and HWOL is worth exploring to understand how the markets can be rising while employment is lagging.

Chart 1 is the Dec 1977 to March 31, 2010 history of the SP500 and the Household Employment Survey(HES)(update released later this week). If one looks carefully and ignores the 1997-2000 “Internet Bubble”, one can see that in market “Tops” employment as reflected in the HES can be used as an SP500 market indicator as it tends to stall prior to peaks in the SP500. Slowing employment reflects a slowing demand for goods and a slowing economy. Eventually, without unusual stimulus from other sources, the SP500 stalls and then, falls as investors observing the same in the underlying economy change investment psychology and capital commitments. But, HES is not helpful as an indicator for SP500 “Bottoms”. HES lows were reached in December 2009 while the SP500 low was March 2009.

Chart 2 is the May 1995 to May 2010 (today’s report included) HES and HWOL history. Even though the Internet based HWOL is a new index, one can see that it leads the HES by a considerable period. In fact, the HWOL is almost coincident with the rise and fall of the SP500 as can be seen in Chart 3.

The HWOL report today is quite positive and indicates that strong increases in HES should be expected. GDP and SP500 should follow HWOL with positive responses barring unusual incidents.

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$$ Help Wanted Index's Positive S&P Correlation

“Davidson” submits:

The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index(HWOL) was reported today up by 222,700 to 4,150,000 indicating that:

“…labor demand in April rose in practically every State and a wide variety of occupations from management positions to office workers and sales help.

This report is very positive for the economy and for investment markets. The relationship between markets, employment and HWOL is worth exploring to understand how the markets can be rising while employment is lagging.

Chart 1 is the Dec 1977 to March 31, 2010 history of the SP500 and the Household Employment Survey(HES)(update released later this week). If one looks carefully and ignores the 1997-2000 “Internet Bubble”, one can see that in market “Tops” employment as reflected in the HES can be used as an SP500 market indicator as it tends to stall prior to peaks in the SP500. Slowing employment reflects a slowing demand for goods and a slowing economy. Eventually, without unusual stimulus from other sources, the SP500 stalls and then, falls as investors observing the same in the underlying economy change investment psychology and capital commitments. But, HES is not helpful as an indicator for SP500 “Bottoms”. HES lows were reached in December 2009 while the SP500 low was March 2009.

Chart 2 is the May 1995 to May 2010 (today’s report included) HES and HWOL history. Even though the Internet based HWOL is a new index, one can see that it leads the HES by a considerable period. In fact, the HWOL is almost coincident with the rise and fall of the SP500 as can be seen in Chart 3.

The HWOL report today is quite positive and indicates that strong increases in HES should be expected. GDP and SP500 should follow HWOL with positive responses barring unusual incidents.

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$$ Davidson on Engle’s “Systemic Risk Rankings”

Let’s just say he isn’t a fan…….

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$$ Davidson on Engle's "Systemic Risk Rankings"

Let’s just say he isn’t a fan…….

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“Davidson” & The Effects of FAS 157

Good stuff. FAS 157 caused far too much pain and panic….

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"Davidson" & The Effects of FAS 157

Good stuff. FAS 157 caused far too much pain and panic….

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$$ Fundamentals Keep Improving…

Forget all the theories as to why the market keeps going higher, there really is only one reason. The fundamentals of our economy keep improving..

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"Davidson": Ebullio Capital Management vs. The Transparency Effect

Perfectly simple solution……..which is why it will never be enacted…. unfortunately

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“Davidson”: Ebullio Capital Management vs. The Transparency Effect

Perfectly simple solution……..which is why it will never be enacted…. unfortunately

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$$ Bullish Employment Predictor? Power Usage….

“Davidson” submits…