Tag: davidson

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Beneficial Mutual Bancorp (BNCL)- Boenning & Scattergood Market Perform » Market Outperform
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First Commonwealth (FCF)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Sell » Neutral
Energy Conversion (ENER)- Broadpoint Capital Neutral » Buy
Penn Natl Gaming (PENN)- Sterne Agee Hold » Buy
EMC Corp (EMC)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Fastenal (FAST)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Southwest Bancorp (OKSB)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Dyncorp Intl (DCP)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
CF Industries (CF)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Temple-Inland (TIN)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Smurfit-Stone (SSCC)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Saia (SAIA)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Con-way (CNW)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Juniper Networks (JNPR)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Ameristar Casinos (ASCA)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Kindred Healthcare (KND)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Broadcom (BRCM)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Suncor Energy (SU)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
J. Crew (JCG)- Citigroup Sell » Hold
ARM Holdings (ARMH)- UBS Neutral » Buy
BT Group PLC (BT)- UBS Sell » Neutral
Suncor Energy (SU)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Network Appliance (NTAP)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Convergys (CVG)- Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform
Popular Inc (BPOP)- Keefe Bruyette Underperform » Mkt Perform
First Bancorp (FBP)- Keefe Bruyette Underperform » Mkt Perform

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Ultratech (UTEK)- DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
MiddleBrook Pharma (MBRK)- Pacific Growth Equities Buy » Neutral
MiddleBrook Pharma (MBRK)- Pacific Crest Buy » Neutral
Time Warner (TWX)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-Weight
Vulcan Materials (VMC)- Longbow Buy » Neutral
United Thera (UTHR)- Stanford Research Buy » Hold $101
Marshall & Ilsley (MI)- Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
Noven Pharma (NOVN)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Underperform $11 » $9
Omnicom (OMC)- Bernstein Outperform » Mkt Perform
Airgas (ARG)- BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
CBS Corp (CBS)- Lehman Brothers Equal-Weight » Underweight
News Corp (NWS)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-Weight
Walt Disney (DIS)- Lehman Brothers Equal-Weight » Underweight
Orthofix (OFIX)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Calpine (CPN)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-Weight
Acme Packet (APKT)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Acme Packet (APKT)- JP Morgan Overweight » Underweight
Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Qimonda (QI)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Merck (MRK)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Marshall & Ilsley (MI)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
AstraZeneca (AZN)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Zions Bancorp (ZION)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Pacific Rim Mining (PMU)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Underperform
On2 Technologies (ONT)- Merriman Curhan Ford Buy » Neutral

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Upgrades
Flowserve (FLS)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Bankrate (RATE)- Merriman Curhan Ford Neutral » Buy
Commercial Metals (CMC)- Davenport Neutral » Buy
Marten Transport (MRTN)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Beneficial Mutual Bancorp (BNCL)- Boenning & Scattergood Market Perform » Market Outperform
Celadon Group (CLDN)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
First Commonwealth (FCF)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Sell » Neutral
Energy Conversion (ENER)- Broadpoint Capital Neutral » Buy
Penn Natl Gaming (PENN)- Sterne Agee Hold » Buy
EMC Corp (EMC)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Fastenal (FAST)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Southwest Bancorp (OKSB)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Dyncorp Intl (DCP)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
CF Industries (CF)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Temple-Inland (TIN)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Smurfit-Stone (SSCC)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Saia (SAIA)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Con-way (CNW)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Juniper Networks (JNPR)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Ameristar Casinos (ASCA)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Kindred Healthcare (KND)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Broadcom (BRCM)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Suncor Energy (SU)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
J. Crew (JCG)- Citigroup Sell » Hold
ARM Holdings (ARMH)- UBS Neutral » Buy
BT Group PLC (BT)- UBS Sell » Neutral
Suncor Energy (SU)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Network Appliance (NTAP)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Convergys (CVG)- Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform
Popular Inc (BPOP)- Keefe Bruyette Underperform » Mkt Perform
First Bancorp (FBP)- Keefe Bruyette Underperform » Mkt Perform

Downgrades
Ultratech (UTEK)- DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
MiddleBrook Pharma (MBRK)- Pacific Growth Equities Buy » Neutral
MiddleBrook Pharma (MBRK)- Pacific Crest Buy » Neutral
Time Warner (TWX)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-Weight
Vulcan Materials (VMC)- Longbow Buy » Neutral
United Thera (UTHR)- Stanford Research Buy » Hold $101
Marshall & Ilsley (MI)- Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
Noven Pharma (NOVN)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Underperform $11 » $9
Omnicom (OMC)- Bernstein Outperform » Mkt Perform
Airgas (ARG)- BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
CBS Corp (CBS)- Lehman Brothers Equal-Weight » Underweight
News Corp (NWS)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-Weight
Walt Disney (DIS)- Lehman Brothers Equal-Weight » Underweight
Orthofix (OFIX)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Calpine (CPN)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-Weight
Acme Packet (APKT)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Acme Packet (APKT)- JP Morgan Overweight » Underweight
Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Qimonda (QI)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Merck (MRK)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Marshall & Ilsley (MI)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
AstraZeneca (AZN)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Zions Bancorp (ZION)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Pacific Rim Mining (PMU)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Underperform
On2 Technologies (ONT)- Merriman Curhan Ford Buy » Neutral

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UPGRADES
Amer Italian Pasta (AITP)- DA Davidson Underperform » Buy
Liberty Prop (LRY)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Administaff (ASF)- First Analysis Sec Equal-Weight » Overweight
Kensey Nash (KNSY)- Susquehanna Financial Neutral » Positive
ASM Intl NV (ASMI)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Endurance Specialty (ENH)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Mueller Water (MWA)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Borg Warner (BWA)- Lehman Brothers Equal-Weight » Overweight
Smith & Nephew (SNN)- UBS Neutral » Buy

DOWNGRADES
Mentor Graphics (MENT)- DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
Bankunited Fin (BKUNA)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Underperform
Methanex (MEOH)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Bankunited Fin (BKUNA)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
Infosys (INFY)- Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
Platinum Underwriters (PTP)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight

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UPGRADES
Amer Italian Pasta (AITP)- DA Davidson Underperform » Buy
Liberty Prop (LRY)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Administaff (ASF)- First Analysis Sec Equal-Weight » Overweight
Kensey Nash (KNSY)- Susquehanna Financial Neutral » Positive
ASM Intl NV (ASMI)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Endurance Specialty (ENH)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Mueller Water (MWA)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Borg Warner (BWA)- Lehman Brothers Equal-Weight » Overweight
Smith & Nephew (SNN)- UBS Neutral » Buy

DOWNGRADES
Mentor Graphics (MENT)- DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
Bankunited Fin (BKUNA)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Underperform
Methanex (MEOH)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Bankunited Fin (BKUNA)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
Infosys (INFY)- Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
Platinum Underwriters (PTP)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight

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Although Harley Davidson (HOG) earlier in the year dramatically reduce EPS estimates, I am beginning to think we may see them eclipse them when they report.

In early May I noted additional evidence that consumers were turning to two wheels as gas prices climbed toward $4 a gallon.

Now that is has hit $4 nationally, it seems to flow is turning into a flood.

NBC San Diego reported that Harley Davidson dealerships in the area are seeing huge response to $4 gas.

“We’re seeing a huge influx of new riders coming in,” said Mike Moran of San Diego Harley-Davidson. “It’s been incredible.”

Because of gas prices, sales have increased dramatically, say workers at the business.

“I drive a 1990 Ford Bronco,” customer Warren Deeds said. “I get, like, 13 miles a gallon, and being a bigger guy, I don’t fit into the more fuel-efficient smaller cars, so I was looking at motorcycles today.”

Deeds and his friend Joey Claiborne are both in the market for new rides.

“If I can get 30 mpg –a lot, probably a couple of hundred a month, probably a little more,” Claiborne said, discussing how much money riding a motorcycle could save him.”

Previous reports of increasing Harley sales were from Illinois, Florida and LA. HOG predicted an 8% drop in motorcycle sales this year ans that will be the key measure when earnings are reported mid-July.

I for one will not be surprised and do expect to hear that trend are improving in terms of sales. Now, the performance of HDFC will have a large impact on results but I expect those who have sold the stock expecting dire news are going to be disappointed.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long HOG

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Upgrades
US Airways (LCC)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
UAL Corp. (UAUA)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Whole Foods (WFMI)- FTN Midwest Neutral » Buy
Eli Lilly (LLY)- Cowen & Co Neutral » Outperform
Amdocs (DOX)- Kaufman Bros Hold » Buy
Novartis AG (NVS)- Cowen & Co Neutral » Outperform
Novatel Wireless (NVTL)- Morgan Joseph Hold » Buy
SAIC (SAI)- Jesup & Lamont Neutral » Buy
Prestige Brands (PBH)- Oppenheimer Underperform » Perform
Morgan Stanley (MS)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Tyson Foods (TSN)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Koppers Holdings (KOP)- UBS Neutral » Buy

Downgrades
Pentair (PNR)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Buy » Neutral
Western Union (WU)- DA Davidson Buy » Neutral $26
Indevus Pharm (IDEV)- Broadpoint Capital Buy » Neutral
VNUS Medical Tech (VNUS)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Omrix Biopharma (OMRI)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Sunesis Pharma (SNSS)- Cantor Fitzgerald Buy » Hold
Bristol-Myers (BMY)- Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
Vertex Pharm (VRTX)- JMP Securities Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform
SBA Comm (SBAC)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
American Tower (AMT)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Crown Castle (CCI)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Trimble Navigation (TRMB)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Choice Hotels (CHH)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
Marriott (MAR)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform

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Upgrades
US Airways (LCC)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
UAL Corp. (UAUA)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Whole Foods (WFMI)- FTN Midwest Neutral » Buy
Eli Lilly (LLY)- Cowen & Co Neutral » Outperform
Amdocs (DOX)- Kaufman Bros Hold » Buy
Novartis AG (NVS)- Cowen & Co Neutral » Outperform
Novatel Wireless (NVTL)- Morgan Joseph Hold » Buy
SAIC (SAI)- Jesup & Lamont Neutral » Buy
Prestige Brands (PBH)- Oppenheimer Underperform » Perform
Morgan Stanley (MS)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Tyson Foods (TSN)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Koppers Holdings (KOP)- UBS Neutral » Buy

Downgrades
Pentair (PNR)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Buy » Neutral
Western Union (WU)- DA Davidson Buy » Neutral $26
Indevus Pharm (IDEV)- Broadpoint Capital Buy » Neutral
VNUS Medical Tech (VNUS)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Omrix Biopharma (OMRI)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Sunesis Pharma (SNSS)- Cantor Fitzgerald Buy » Hold
Bristol-Myers (BMY)- Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
Vertex Pharm (VRTX)- JMP Securities Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform
SBA Comm (SBAC)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
American Tower (AMT)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Crown Castle (CCI)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Trimble Navigation (TRMB)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Choice Hotels (CHH)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
Marriott (MAR)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform

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Democrat Russ Feingold is pressuring the Indian government to dump “patently unfair” tariffs on Harley Davidson (HOG) motorcycles in the nation.

In February, Harley got the right to establish dealerships in the country that will at least bring down some of the costs and better entrench the brand.

Rather than shipping the bikes individually to buyers, they can bulk ship some and sell them there. A start.

“It would be a real confidence-builder (for U.S.-India business relations) if they would open the market up to a signature product from Wisconsin,” Feingold said, speaking Friday from New Delhi.

Feingold argued that the removing the tariff would not hard India business as no one there produces heavyweight motorcycles. He then said that selling more would increase governmental revenues.

So, in India lowering the cost of business is good for the government but in the US Feingold consistently votes to increase it….irony. But, that is another post.

The good news on the whole subject was that Feingold said he was encouraged by the fact that other Indian officials described Indian prime minister Manmohan Singh, an economist and former finance minister, as someone who “has not been a big fan of tariffs.”

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long HOG

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A simple yet very common sense way for Harley Davidson (HOG) to attract new younger riders to the fold.

There have been a bunch of comments on blogs post about the “age and demographics” of Harley riders. The common refrain is that they are “55 year old guys” and that this is a reason that sales will eventually decline. It is not by the way, it is more like 47.

Other Demographic Facts:
52%—Owned a Harley-Davidson motorcycle previously at any point during lifetime
33%—Owned a competitive motorcycle previously
15%—First motorcycle purchased

I never get this argument because someone is always turning 55 unless there is a new law I am unaware of and the HOG is more prevalent on the road now than it ever was. Anyway, let’s go with it for arguments sake. What Harley would then have to do is try to appeal to a younger crowd, no? Turns out they are doing just that.

Harley Davidson is the only motorcycle manufacturer that offers a branded rider education program. It is currently active in 42 states through its authorized dealerships. Called the “Rider’s Edge New Rider Course“, it is a Motorcycle Safety Foundation certified program. The program includes both classroom instruction and training on a controlled range. Students learn how to ride on a Buell Blast, the lightweight, easy-to-handle “Sport Bike” with a rider-friendly design. Harley-Davidson dealerships across the country offer the Rider’s Edge Skilled Rider Course for motorcycle enthusiasts interested in taking their riding to the next level.

“Rider’s Edge” has trained in excess of 138,000 students with 39% of them being women. A survey in late 2003 showed that 84 percent of students get their licenses after completing the course.

Upon successful completion of the course, students receive an Motorcycle Safety Foundation Completion Card which, depending on their state of residence and insurance provider may et them a discount on insurance

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long HOG

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In early March I posed the question “is $3.25 gas helping Harley Davidson?” Now that the price is up to $3.50 and higher in most areas, there is more evidence unfolding that it may be true..

In the first post it was an Illinois dealership reporting increases in sales and now we have both a California dealership and a Florida insurance agency that insurs motorcycles in 21 states reporting the same thing.

The fact that the reports are coming in from both the sellers of the bikes and insurers in such regionally diverse areas has to assure investors that this is not a specific trend to a specific dealership or area but more of a widespread one.

Some of the comments I got after the first post were of the “a Harley gets the same mileage as my Prism” well, ring hollow. The simple reason is that I do not know too many drivers of Prisms, Escorts or other gas saver vehicles that own and drive a Harley. I do know plenty of F150, Suburban and Silverado drivers who do. In that case, you are doubling or even tripling your gas mileage and savings by making the switch.

Harley Davidson (HOG) recently lowered full year guidance to a level that, as gas prices continue their climb. I think are going to prove way to conservative as the year unfolds.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long HOG

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.

At the recent shareholder meeting, Harley Davidson increase the annual dividend 10% to .33 per share quarterly. That gives it a 3.4% yield at today’s price.

View meeting results here:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long HOG

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Upgrades
Wright Medical (WMGI)- Leerink Swann Mkt Perform » Outperform
Axsys Technologies (AXYS)- Boenning & Scattergood Market Perform » Market Outperform
Trimble Navigation (TRMB)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Emulex (ELX)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
Synovus (SNV)- Bernstein Mkt Perform » Outperform
Health Management (HMA)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Tenet Healthcare (THC)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Northrop Grumman (NOC)- Cowen & Co Neutral » Outperform
Sohu.com (SOHU)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Progenics Pharm (PGNX)- Citigroup Sell » Hold
Baidu.com (BIDU)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Infinity Prpty & Casualty (IPCC)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Phase Forward (PFWD)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Newmont Mining (NEM)- CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Underperform » Sector Perform
YRC Worldwide (YRCW)- Morgan Keegan Underperform » Mkt Perform
Virgin Mobile USA (VM)- Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
Northrop Grumman (NOC)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Aetna (AET)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
Harte-Hanks (HHS)- Deutsche Securities Sell » Hold
Janus Capital (JNS)- Friedman Billings Underperform » Mkt Perform

Downgrades
Nike (NKE)- McAdams Wright Ragen Buy » Hold
AmericanWest Banc (AWBC)- DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
Columbia Sportswear (COLM)- McAdams Wright Ragen Buy » Hold
Raytheon (RTN)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
SiRF Technology (SIRF)- Dougherty & Company Neutral » Sell
NETGEAR (NTGR)- BWS Financial Strong Buy » Buy
Arch Coal (ACI)- Caris & Company Average » Below Average
Massey Energy (MEE)- Caris & Company Buy » Above Average
Peabody Energy (BTU)- Caris & Company Above Average » Average
Banco Brad SA (BBD)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
3M (MMM)- Sterne Agee Buy » Hold
Fidelity National Information Services (FIS)- Barrington Research Outperform » Mkt Perform
T. Rowe Price (TROW)- Sandler O’Neill Hold » Sell
UCBH Holdings (UCBH)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
AMBAC Fincl (ABK)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Dover Downs Gaming (DDE)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
EMCOR Group (EME)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Ford Motor (F)- Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Underperform
BJ Restaurants (BJRI)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
EastGroup (EGP)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Dvlps Divers Realty (DDR)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Ford Motor (F)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
America Movil SA (AMX)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold

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