Tag: davidson

Upgrades

AmericanWest Banc (AWBC)- DA Davidson Neutral » Buy $18
Northwest Airlines (NWA)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Delta Air Lines (DAL)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Seagate Tech (STX)- Caris & Company Average » Above Average
EuroBancshares (EUBK)- Keefe Bruyette Mkt Perform » Outperform
SBA Comm (SBAC)- Soleil Hold » Buy
Crown Castle (CCI)- Soleil Hold » Buy
Medco Health Solutions (MHS)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Diamond Offshore (DO)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Ross Stores (ROST)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Atlas America (ATLS)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Aventine Renewable Energy (AVR)- Broadpoint Capital Underperform » Neutral
BP (BP)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Wright Medical (WMGI)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight

Downgrades

Foundry Ntwks (FDRY)- Collins Stewart Buy » Hold
Seaspan (SSW)- Cantor Fitzgerald Buy » Hold
Ixia (XXIA)- Ferris Baker Watts Buy » Neutral
Tollgrade (TLGD)- Ferris Baker Watts Buy » Neutral
Foundry Ntwks (FDRY)- BWS Financial Buy » Sell
General Electric (GE)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Pinnacle (PNK)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Hold » Underweight
Garmin (GRMN)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
IdaCorp (IDA)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Abercrombie (ANF)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Ixia (XXIA)- JMP Securities Strong Buy » Mkt Outperform
Smith Intl (SII)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Cintas (CTAS)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight
Zoran (ZRAN)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Underperform
Total S.A. (TOT)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Valspar (VAL)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Johnson Controls (JCI)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Ensco (ESV)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
BlackRock (BLK)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Millennium Pharm (MLNM)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Red Robin Gourmet (RRGB)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Hershey Foods (HSY)- Bernstein Mkt Perform » Underperform

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Upgrades
Wolverine (WWW)- Sterne Agee Hold » Buy
Washington Mutual (WM)- DA Davidson Underperform » Neutral
Prudential Plc (PUK)- Keefe Bruyette Underperform » Outperform
Sealy (ZZ)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
GrafTech Intl (GTI)- Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform
Canadian Natrl Res (CNQ)- Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
Fairport Comms (FRP)- Soleil Hold » Buy

Downgrades
Sigma Designs (SIGM)- Collins Stewart Buy » Hold
Mannkind (MNKD)- Leerink Swann Outperform » Mkt Perform
LifeCell (LIFC)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR)- Soleil Buy » Hold
ING Group (ING)- Keefe Bruyette Mkt Perform » Underperform
Sun Microsystems (JAVA)- Caris & Company Above Average » Average
Arch Coal ACI (HSBC)- Securities Overweight » Neutral
Clear Channel (CCU)- Stanford Research Buy » Hold
Spansion (SPSN)- FTN Midwest Buy » Neutral
ITT Educational (ESI)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
I-many (IMNY)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
Nationwide Health (NHP)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Layne Christensen (LAYN)- Morgan Joseph Buy » Hold
Urban Outfitters (URBN)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Sell
Corinthian Colleges (COCO)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Emergency Medical Services (EMS)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform
MSC Industrial (MSM)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Salesforce.com (CRM)- Bernstein Outperform » Mkt Perform
Estee Lauder (EL)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Sell
Draxis Health (DRAX)- Jesup & Lamont Buy » Neutral

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Upgrades
Wolverine (WWW)- Sterne Agee Hold » Buy
Washington Mutual (WM)- DA Davidson Underperform » Neutral
Prudential Plc (PUK)- Keefe Bruyette Underperform » Outperform
Sealy (ZZ)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
GrafTech Intl (GTI)- Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform
Canadian Natrl Res (CNQ)- Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
Fairport Comms (FRP)- Soleil Hold » Buy

Downgrades
Sigma Designs (SIGM)- Collins Stewart Buy » Hold
Mannkind (MNKD)- Leerink Swann Outperform » Mkt Perform
LifeCell (LIFC)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR)- Soleil Buy » Hold
ING Group (ING)- Keefe Bruyette Mkt Perform » Underperform
Sun Microsystems (JAVA)- Caris & Company Above Average » Average
Arch Coal ACI (HSBC)- Securities Overweight » Neutral
Clear Channel (CCU)- Stanford Research Buy » Hold
Spansion (SPSN)- FTN Midwest Buy » Neutral
ITT Educational (ESI)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
I-many (IMNY)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
Nationwide Health (NHP)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Layne Christensen (LAYN)- Morgan Joseph Buy » Hold
Urban Outfitters (URBN)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Sell
Corinthian Colleges (COCO)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Emergency Medical Services (EMS)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform
MSC Industrial (MSM)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Salesforce.com (CRM)- Bernstein Outperform » Mkt Perform
Estee Lauder (EL)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Sell
Draxis Health (DRAX)- Jesup & Lamont Buy » Neutral

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There has been a flurry of posts flying around lately about Harley Davidson (HOG) and their status as a “discretionary” purchase. Now, while the choice to buy a motorcycle may be for some, riding a Harley is not necessarily. There is a huge segment of the Harley population that considers their cars their second mode of transportation.

I am reminded of a story told to me by a friend. His buddy called him and said he was bringing over his new Harley for him to see. As my friend came out to look at it, his buddy’s wife was sitting on the back of the bike. “Isn’t she the most beautiful thing you have ever seen?” he was asked. My friend then looked at me and said, “He was of course talking about the bike”. Ever here a story about that from a Mac user? Or a Ford (F) driver? Me either…

I think the confusion here may be based on the term “discretionary”. When I think of the word I think of mowing my lawn myself vs. having the kid down the street do it. Buying Coke (KO) or buying the generic store bought brand of soda. Going to the movies vs. waiting for it to come out and renting it. Those are truly discretionary purchases.

A Harley Davidson rider will never, ever, make the decision to NOT buy a Harley and instead hop on a Suzuki to “save a few bucks”. That very fact means there is a very large limit to just how discretionary the bikes are.

More “misinformation” is also bantered about that people do not have the money to spend “15k to 30K” for a bike. Now, I have been to a dealership lately and I can tell you there is a whole swath of bikes available for $8,000 to $12,000. That alone makes the potential affordability of it audience wider.

Now, all this is not to say that for some people the bike is discretionary. I as much said so last year when share were trading at all time high’s near $70. Shares have since cratered and sit under $40. Slowing sales and rising credit issues are the main culprits.

What has happened is Harley riders has slowed to rate at which the “trade up” their bikes to bigger, more expensive models. They have not decided to go with another brand. Were Harleys truly discretionary, this would be the trend. Rather than trading in an existing bike for another, riders are sticking with what they have. This is the reason recently the observation was made that the secondary market has remained so strong. The demand for the bikes is still there, people are just being more selective in their purchases.

Let’s not forget that this brand is so powerful people tattoo its logo on their skin. Ever see Google (GOOG) or Apple (AAPL) tattooed on anyone? We know how passionate those folks are about their products, yet it would seem they pale to those who ride HOG’s. You cannot both put a price tag on this and underestimate the power of the brand in people decision making process.

This passion means there is an in-elasticity to the “discretionary” aspect of the bikes. If that is true, and I believe it is, then we may have reached the limit of it and shares have bottomed. That is why I bought earlier in the year…

Another note: As expected, the labor issue has been put to rest.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long HOG, None

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There has been a flurry of posts flying around lately about Harley Davidson (HOG) and their status as a “discretionary” purchase. Now, while the choice to buy a motorcycle may be for some, riding a Harley is not necessarily. There is a huge segment of the Harley population that considers their cars their second mode of transportation.

I am reminded of a story told to me by a friend. His buddy called him and said he was bringing over his new Harley for him to see. As my friend came out to look at it, his buddy’s wife was sitting on the back of the bike. “Isn’t she the most beautiful thing you have ever seen?” he was asked. My friend then looked at me and said, “He was of course talking about the bike”. Ever here a story about that from a Mac user? Or a Ford (F) driver? Me either…

I think the confusion here may be based on the term “discretionary”. When I think of the word I think of mowing my lawn myself vs. having the kid down the street do it. Buying Coke (KO) or buying the generic store bought brand of soda. Going to the movies vs. waiting for it to come out and renting it. Those are truly discretionary purchases.

A Harley Davidson rider will never, ever, make the decision to NOT buy a Harley and instead hop on a Suzuki to “save a few bucks”. That very fact means there is a very large limit to just how discretionary the bikes are.

More “misinformation” is also bantered about that people do not have the money to spend “15k to 30K” for a bike. Now, I have been to a dealership lately and I can tell you there is a whole swath of bikes available for $8,000 to $12,000. That alone makes the potential affordability of it audience wider.

Now, all this is not to say that for some people the bike is discretionary. I as much said so last year when share were trading at all time high’s near $70. Shares have since cratered and sit under $40. Slowing sales and rising credit issues are the main culprits.

What has happened is Harley riders has slowed to rate at which the “trade up” their bikes to bigger, more expensive models. They have not decided to go with another brand. Were Harleys truly discretionary, this would be the trend. Rather than trading in an existing bike for another, riders are sticking with what they have. This is the reason recently the observation was made that the secondary market has remained so strong. The demand for the bikes is still there, people are just being more selective in their purchases.

Let’s not forget that this brand is so powerful people tattoo its logo on their skin. Ever see Google (GOOG) or Apple (AAPL) tattooed on anyone? We know how passionate those folks are about their products, yet it would seem they pale to those who ride HOG’s. You cannot both put a price tag on this and underestimate the power of the brand in people decision making process.

This passion means there is an in-elasticity to the “discretionary” aspect of the bikes. If that is true, and I believe it is, then we may have reached the limit of it and shares have bottomed. That is why I bought earlier in the year…

Another note: As expected, the labor issue has been put to rest.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long HOG, None

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Upgrades
Liberty Media (LINTA)- Janco Partners Mkt Perform » Accumulate
Phoenix Tech (PTEC)- Roth Capital Hold » Buy
Devon Energy (DVN)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Sappi Limited (SPP)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
National City (NCC)- Bear Stearns Underperform » Outperform
Marathon Oil (MRO)- Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform

Downgrades
Renasant (RNST)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Buy » Neutral
AbitibiBowater (ABH)- DA Davidson Neutral » Underperform
I-TRAX (DMX)- Dougherty & Company Buy » Sell
Plexus (PLXS)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Copa Holdings (CPA)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Sourcefire (FIRE)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
VMware (VMW)- Lazard Capital Buy » Hold
Art Technology (ARTG)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
State Auto Fin (STFC)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Sell
Infinity Prpty & Casualty (IPCC)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Prosperity Bancshares (PRSP)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
FirstFed Financial (FED)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Blackbaud (BLKB)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Underperform
Cisco Systems (CSCO)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Portugal Telecom (PT)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Chesapeake Energy (CHK)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Urban Outfitters (URBN)- Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
North Valley Bancorp (NOVB)- DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
AFLAC (AFL)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral

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Upgrades
Liberty Media (LINTA)- Janco Partners Mkt Perform » Accumulate
Phoenix Tech (PTEC)- Roth Capital Hold » Buy
Devon Energy (DVN)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Sappi Limited (SPP)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
National City (NCC)- Bear Stearns Underperform » Outperform
Marathon Oil (MRO)- Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform

Downgrades
Renasant (RNST)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Buy » Neutral
AbitibiBowater (ABH)- DA Davidson Neutral » Underperform
I-TRAX (DMX)- Dougherty & Company Buy » Sell
Plexus (PLXS)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Copa Holdings (CPA)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Sourcefire (FIRE)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
VMware (VMW)- Lazard Capital Buy » Hold
Art Technology (ARTG)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
State Auto Fin (STFC)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Sell
Infinity Prpty & Casualty (IPCC)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Prosperity Bancshares (PRSP)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
FirstFed Financial (FED)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Blackbaud (BLKB)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Underperform
Cisco Systems (CSCO)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Portugal Telecom (PT)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Chesapeake Energy (CHK)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Urban Outfitters (URBN)- Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
North Valley Bancorp (NOVB)- DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
AFLAC (AFL)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral

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On Friday the United Steelworkers and International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, Local 2-209, is expected t approve a 4 year deal with Harley Davidson (HOG). Terms have not been disclosed.

Last summer 2,900 workers in York., PA struck and finally agreed to a 12% pay raise over 4 years and the agreement is widely thought to be a blueprint for the current negotiations.

Now that HOG has put to rest labor issues the timing of this is very good for the company. Dealer inventories are reported to be tight all over and the spring selling season is beginning in earnest. With that being said, the last thing HOG would want at this time was a labor disruption that would cause delivery disruptions to dealers.

While 2008 is not supposed to be a banner year for sales by any means, all evidence is that the company and its dealer network have done a wonderful job controlling inventory levels.

With possible labor issues behind it, HOG will now be able to control production on its own term to assure steady inventory levels.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long HOG

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Upgrades
Alcoa (AA)- Davenport Buy » Strong Buy
Delia’s (DLIA)- CL King Underperform » Neutral
Green Mtn Coffee (GMCR)- Canaccord Adams Hold » Buy
Big Lots (BIG)- Wedbush Morgan Buy » Strong Buy
Molson Coors Brewing (TAP)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
CIT Group (CIT)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Anheuser-Busch (BUD)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Tsakos Energy (TNP)- Citigroup Sell » Hold
Rockwell Collins (COL)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
National City (NCC)- Friedman Billings Underperform » Mkt Perform
Potash (POT)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Top Pick
Grey Wolf (GW)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
PMC-Sierra (PMCS)- Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
Microsemi (MSCC)- Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
Intersil (ISIL)- Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
Fairchild Semi (FCS)- Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
Analog Devices (ADI)- Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
FPL Group (FPL)- Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
Xyratex (XRTX)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Hawaiian Airlines, Inc. (HA)- Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
CIGNA (CI)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Monsanto (MON)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Cameron (CAM)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Cresud SA (CRESY)- HSBC Securities Neutral » Overweight
Collective Brands (PSS)- Soleil Hold » Buy
Auxilium Pharma (AUXL)- Soleil Hold » Buy
Domtar (UFS)- Soleil Hold » Buy

Downgrades
Synplicity (SYNP)- DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
Cambrex (CBM)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Piper Jaffray (PJC)- Sterne Agee Buy » Sell
Steelcase (SCS)- BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Herman Miller (MLHR)- BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Astoria Fincl (AF)- Sterne Agee Buy » Hold
InfoSpace (INSP)- Needham & Co Buy » Hold
Dime Community (DCOM)- FTN Midwest Buy » Neutral
Integra Bank (IBNK)- FTN Midwest Buy » Neutral
Cambrex (CBM)- First Analysis Sec Overweight » Equal-Weight
Textron (TXT)- Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
Hercules Offshore (HERO)- CapitalOne southcoast Add » Neutral
Cellcom Israel (CEL)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Winnebago Inds (WGO)- BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
CIT Group (CIT)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
Symmetry Medical (SMA)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Gap Inc (GPS)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Selective Insurance (SIGI)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Auxilium Pharma (AUXL)- Merriman Curhan Ford Neutral » Sell
Wells Fargo (WFC)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Underperform
Lehman Brothers (LEH)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform

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Upgrades
Omniture (OMTR)- Cantor Fitzgerald Hold » Buy
Digi Intl (DGII)- Feltl & Co. Hold » Buy
Consolidated Water (CWCO)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Neutral » Buy
CSX Corp (CSX)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Applied Materials (AMAT)- Caris & Company Average » Buy
Reliance Steel (RS)- Longbow Neutral » Buy
Post Properties (PPS)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Oil States (OIS)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Helmerich & Payne (HP)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Alliance Data (ADS)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
National City (NCC)- Keefe Bruyette Underperform » Mkt Perform
Edwards Lifesci (EW)- Stanford Research Hold » Buy
Vimicro (VIMC)- Susquehanna Financial Negative » Neutral
Vimpel Comms (VIP)- Citigroup Sell » Hold
RiskMetrics (RMG)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
SAP AG (SAP)- Bernstein Mkt Perform » Outperform
Teekay Shipping (TK)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
General Maritime (GMR)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Alexza Pharma (ALXA)- JMP Securities Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform
Goldman Sachs (GS)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Overseas Shipholding (OSG)- Citigroup Sell » Buy

Downgrades
Nova Biosource Fuels (NBF)- Ardour Capital Buy » Accumulate
Xerium Tech (XRM)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Cash Systems (CKNN)- Barrington Research Outperform » Underperform
Nuvelo (NUVO)- Pacific Growth Equities Buy » Neutral
Intl Paper (IP)- DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
Holly (HOC)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Valero Energy (VLO)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Frontier Oil (FTO)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Tesoro (TSO)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Western Refining (WNR)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Underperform
Marathon Oil (MRO)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Siemens AG (SI)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Siemens AG (SI)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Vornado Rlty Trust (VNO)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
SL Green Rlty (SLG)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Telus (TU)- Citigroup Hold » Sell
Northstar Realty (NRF)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Newcastle Investment (NCT)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Spectrum Pharma (SPPI)- Brean Murray Buy » Hold
Intl Paper (IP)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Directed Electronics (DEIX)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
United Rentals (URI)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Seacor Hldgs (CKH)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
American Railcar Industries (ARII)- UBS Neutral » Sell
Dynavax Technologies (DVAX)- Merriman Curhan Ford Buy » Neutral
ViewPoint Financial (VPFG)- Keefe Bruyette Outperform » Mkt Perform

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Upgrades
Callaway Golf (ELY)- FTN Midwest Neutral » Buy
Aixtron (AIXG)- Needham & Co Hold » Buy
Hellenic Telecom (OTE)- Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
Concur Tech (CNQR)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Advanced Analogic Tech (AATI)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Ashland (ASH)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Nordic American Tanker (NAT)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Photon Dynamics (PHTN)- Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
Wynn Resorts (WYNN)- Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
PepsiAmericas (PAS)- HSBC Securities Underweight » Neutral
AnnTaylor (ANN)- Citigroup Hold » Buy

Downgrades
UCBH Holdings (UCBH)- DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
Dolbys Labs (DLB)- Canaccord Adams Buy » Hold
Infosys (INFY)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
Nike (NKE)- Caris & Company Buy » Above Average
CEMEX S.A. (CX)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Interface (IFSIA)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Hibbett Sporting (HIBB)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Brooke Credit (BRCR)- Morgan Joseph Buy » Hold
Sterling Construction (STRL)- Morgan Joseph Buy » Hold
Metabolix (MBLX)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Double Hull Tankers (DHT)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
TD Ameritrade (AMTD)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Charles Schwab (SCHW)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Underperform
Newcastle Investment (NCT)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Portugal Telecom (PT)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
TD Ameritrade (AMTD)- UBS Buy » Neutral
InVesco (IVZ)- UBS Buy » Neutral
State Street (STT)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Goldman Sachs (GS)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Lehman Brothers (LEH)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Bank of NY (BK)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Coach (COH)- Citigroup Buy » Hold

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As gas approaches $4 a gallon, are consumer going to switch to two wheels to save money? It would seem early results are ..yes.

The questions was posed to an Illinois Harley Dealer recently.

Shad Zimbro, co-owner of Black Diamond Harley Davidson in Marion, Illinois says,”It really is the truth because they do save a lot of money in gas by going to a motorcycle.” He says his sales have doubled since last year.

Motorcycles tend to average about 50 miles a gallon and Harley makes models that get 70. Zimbro says he commutes 40 miles a day to work on his Harley and saves about $100 a week by doing so.

It does make perfect sense but obviously we need more data to see if it is just a regional trend or a larger on. The significance of his increase though, is impressive and that does lead me to believe it may be more than a local event.

In January Harley did issue 2008 guidance above the consensus estimates so perhaps they are seeing something?

We’ll have to wait until late spring to get more info but I am thinking that this may actually be something larger..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long HOG

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Upgrades
Granite Constr (GVA)- DA Davidson Neutral » Buy
Praxair (PX)- First Analysis Sec Equal-Weight » Overweight
Analogic (ALOG )- Needham & Co Hold » Buy
Art Technology (ARTG)- Roth Capital Hold » Buy
Quiksilver (ZQK B)-. Riley & Co Neutral » Buy
Town Sports Intl (CLUB)- RBC Capital Mkts Underperform » Sector Perform
MFA Mortgage (MFA)- JMP Securities Mkt Outperform » Strong Buy
Omniture (OMTR)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Dynamic Materials (BOOM)- Broadpoint Capital Neutral » Buy
99 Cents Only (NDN)- Lehman Brothers Underweight » Equal-weight
Santarus (SNTS)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Copart (CPRT)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
AmerisourceBergen (ABC)- UBS Sell » Neutral
Crown Hldgs (CCK)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy

Downgrades
Building Materials (BLG)- DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
Audiocodes (AUDC)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
CRA Intl (CRAI)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Keryx Biopharma (KERX)- Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
Kenexa (KNXA)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
PDL BioPharma (PDLI)- Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
Western Digital (WDC)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Apria Healthcare (AHG)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Sell
Techtarget (TTGT)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
ValueClick (VCLK)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
ComScore (SCOR)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
LivePerson (LPSN)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
SumTotal SUMT (RBC)- Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
j2 Global (JCOM)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Shoretel (SHOR)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Ciena (CIEN)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Avanex (AVNX)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Keryx Biopharma (KERX)- JP Morgan Overweight » Ne
Mannkind (MNKD)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Underperform
Lincare (LNCR)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Sell
Somanetics (SMTS)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Reduce
Ciena (CIEN)- JMP Securities Mkt Perform » Mkt Underperform
Varian Medical (VAR)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Underperform
Thornburg Mortg (TMA)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Underperform
Tele Argentina (STET)- TEO Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Aeropostale (ARO)- Citigroup Hold » Sell
Keryx Biopharma (KERX)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Underperform
Keryx Biopharma (KERX)- Rodman & Renshaw Mkt Outperform » Mkt Underperform

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Upgrades
Sara Lee (SLE)- DA Davidson Underperform » Neutral
Netease.com (NTES)- Brean Murray Hold » Buy
Sepracor (SEPR)- AmTech Research Sell » Neutral
Methanex (MEOH)- CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Outperform
BioMed Realty (BMR)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Pier 1 Imports (PIR)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Deutsche Telekom (DT)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Lululemon Athletica (LULU)- BMO Capital Markets Underperform » Market Perform
OSI Pharm (OSIP)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Anglogold (AU)- UBS Neutral » Buy
MercadoLibre (MELI)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Prudential Plc (PUK)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Entergy (ETR)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Exelon (EXC)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Northrop Grumman (NOC)- Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform
Seagate Tech (STX)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Kohl’s (KSS)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Darden Restaurants (DRI)- Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
Expeditors Intl (EXPD)- UBS Neutral » Buy
DeVRY (DV)- Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight

Downgrades
Provident Bank (PBKS)- Fox Pitt In Line » Underperform
Helix Energy (HLX)- CapitalOne southcoast Strong Buy » Add
Amylin Pharms (AMLN)- Lazard Capital Buy » Hold
Royal Bank of Canada (RY)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Underperform
Supertex (SUPX)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)- Needham & Co Hold » Underperform
Cablevision (CVC)- Pali Research Buy » Sell
Apollo Group (APOL)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Sell
Isle of Capri (ISLE)- Brean Murray Buy » Hold
SW Energy (SWN)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
Western Digital (WDC)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Ford Motor (F)- Citigroup Hold » Sell
Omnicare (OCR)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
DealerTrack (TRAK)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight

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Upgrades
KongZhong (KONG)- Susquehanna Financial Negative » Neutral
AbitibiBowater (ABH)- DA Davidson Underperform » Neutral
Public Storage (PSA)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Canadian Natrl Res (CNQ)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Omnicare (OCR)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Novartis AG (NVS)- HSBC Securities Neutral » Underweight
GrafTech Intl (GTI)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
American Intl (AIG)- Keefe Bruyette Outperform » Mkt Perform
MF Global (MF)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight
R.H. Donnelley (RHD )- Deutsche Securities Hold » Sell
Brookdale Senior Living (BKD)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Nippon Telegr (NTT)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Deutsche Telekom (DT)- Citigroup Sell » Hold
Quest Diagnostics (DGX)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Dell (DELL)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Euroseas (ESEA)- Cantor Fitzgerald Hold » Buy
DealerTrack (TRAK)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Deckers Outdoor (DECK)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Entergy (ETR)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Repsol SA (REP)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Pfizer (PFE)- Lehman Brothers Underweight » Equal-weight

Downgrades
Bank of Montreal (BMO)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI)- Broadpoint Capital Buy » Neutral
Greif Brothers (GEF)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Buy » Neutral
Canadian Natrl Res (CNQ)- Canaccord Adams Buy » Hold
Network Appliance (NTAP)- Pacific Growth Equities Buy » Neutral
Midas (MDS)- Kevin Dann Buy » Hold
W&T Offshore (WTI)- CapitalOne southcoast Add » Neutral
Lifepoint Hospitals (LPNT)- Longbow Buy » Neutral
Take-Two (TTWO)- Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO)- CapitalOne southcoast Add » Neutral
Arena Resources (ARD)- CapitalOne southcoast Strong Buy » Add
Jackson Hewitt (JTX)- FTN Midwest Buy » Neutral
Big 5 Sports (BGFV)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Unisource Energy (UNS)- Soleil Buy » Hold
MF Global (MF)- UBS Buy » Neutral
West Pharm (WST)- UBS Buy » Neutral
DTS (DTSI)- Kaufman Bros Buy » Hold
National Financial Partners (NFP)- Keefe Bruyette Outperform » Mkt Perform
CollaGenex Pharm (CGPI)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
Live Nation (LYV)- Morgan Joseph Buy » Hold
InterNAP (INAP)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
CPFL Energia (CPL)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
MF Global (MF)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
EOG Resources (EOG)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform
BEA Systems (BEAS)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
R.H. Donnelley (RHD)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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