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As gas approaches $4 a gallon, are consumer going to switch to two wheels to save money? It would seem early results are ..yes.

The questions was posed to an Illinois Harley Dealer recently.

Shad Zimbro, co-owner of Black Diamond Harley Davidson in Marion, Illinois says,”It really is the truth because they do save a lot of money in gas by going to a motorcycle.” He says his sales have doubled since last year.

Motorcycles tend to average about 50 miles a gallon and Harley makes models that get 70. Zimbro says he commutes 40 miles a day to work on his Harley and saves about $100 a week by doing so.

It does make perfect sense but obviously we need more data to see if it is just a regional trend or a larger on. The significance of his increase though, is impressive and that does lead me to believe it may be more than a local event.

In January Harley did issue 2008 guidance above the consensus estimates so perhaps they are seeing something?

We’ll have to wait until late spring to get more info but I am thinking that this may actually be something larger..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long HOG

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Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Just two days after I posted on the specter of Harley Davidson (HOG) entering India, the Indian government answers.

While HOG has requested a reduction of the current tariffs to 10% and the ability to establish dealerships in the country, they got 1/2 of what they wanted.

After all, the bike is going to be imported by rich people. Let them pay duty,” an unnamed official said. “This means, instead of delivering its bikes to individual buyer, the company can appoint dealers in India,” the official said.

This is good news. Not “great” but still very good. Great would have been getting both. HOG now has the ability to establish a dealer network in the country and while it may not sell tens of thousands of bikes there, it will begin to establish a presence and the brand. Due to the tariffs it will be a luxury item but, given the income disparity in the region, it is more than possible any drag on sales will be minimal as the vast majority of the population would not have been able to afford the bikes anyway.

Given the two choices, this one must be considered the better result. Establishing a network in the country is far better long term. Once there they can continue to lobby for tariff reductions and having the bikes in showrooms will boost sales to a middle class that otherwise may not have considered one.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long HOG

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Here are some of the more notable elements of Harley Davidson’s (HOG) conference call.

International shipments:

* 22,114 units were up 20.5% compared to the same quarter last year.
* International shipments grew to 27.2% of total worldwide fourth quarter shipment volume compared to 19.8% in the fourth quarter of 2006.
* International shipments for the full year grew to 26.9% of the mix, up from 21.8% in 2006
* Europe was once again strong with a year-over-year sales increase of 10.9%, Japan was up 4.5%, Canada was up 45.9%, or 605 units, primarily due to better product availability during the quarter. The remaining 45 or so countries where motorcycles are sold were up a collective 28.6% for the quarter.

From the Q % A:
James Hardiman – FTN Midwest
Okay, and then my second question, I was wondering if you could just flesh out a little bit more sort of how you’ve been able to remain so strong internationally, and I guess especially in the Canadian market, and where you expect that to go if — you know, when you look at some of the economies of some of the countries that you do business in, are they correlated to the U.S. market? Sort of what you are seeing internationally and whether or not we can expect that to continue?

James L. Ziemer
I’ll answer that question — on retail sales outside the U.S., we are strong in all the markets outside the U.S. without exception when you look at it on a total year basis, whether it be Canada or Europe or Australia or Japan, and the markets of Latin America.

That’s driven by many different things. Their economies are doing well. Certainly the weak dollar has contributed to some of that but as we continue to build a distribution network and we acquire some of our independent distributors over the last five, six years, I mean, we are doing things and rationalizing the dealer networks in many of the countries we sell into. We’ve acquired in the last year the Australian distributors. We have just recently acquired the distributorship in Mexico, so we continue to take on that strategy so that as we own the distribution network, we can operate that for the long-term health of the business and sell customers the experience that helps make us strong and differentiates us from our competition.

Q & A 2008 Outlook:
Ed Aaron – RBC Capital Markets
A couple of questions; first, you said recently that your guidance for ’08 sort of operated under the assumption that 2008 economic environment would be similar to 2007, but you didn’t change your guidance. Is that still your assumption or are you now planning for a weaker economy in the U.S. but feel better about your international business?

Thomas E. Bergmann
Just to add on, I think Jim’s got it. There is no doubt we think 2008 is going to be a challenging year for us and for the industry. And you know, when we put the guidance out, things — probably the indications have gotten a little, have deteriorated a little further, so it’s going to be a challenging year.

But as Jim said, our guidance was built around a cautious approach to the year and we are going to look at the environment very closely and watch it and we’ll make the appropriate changes if we need to at any point in time.

But the good thing is the international business, as you mentioned, continues to do very well and we are continuing to be very pleased with the progress we are making in the markets and it continues to deliver strong results and we see that continuing in 2008.

In response to another question:
Thomas E. Bergmann
Clearly there’s a lot that goes into the bottom line of delivering our EPS guidance and that’s really management’s challenge this year, is to work through the challenging economy here in the U.S., continue to grow our international business, allocate capital smartly, and the share repurchase activities or other business initiatives to drive growth. And we’re prepared to do that. It’s going to be a challenging year but at this point in time, with all the activities around the 105th and international, we’re at this point in time comfortable with the guidance.

Bottom line? HOG expects the US to be anemic again in 2008 but international operations to continue their upward surge. I have confidence in the 4% to 7% EPS growth estimates and that means shares will trade below 10 times 2008 earnings and continue to yield over 3% at this levels. For a company like HOG, that is a steal.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long HOG

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Harley Davidson (HOG) reported results Friday and they were as expected, anemic. The guidance for 2008, was, too be honest a bit more rosy than I would have expected.

Here is the nitty gritty:

Fourth-quarter net income fell 26% to $186.1 million, or 78 cents a share, from $252.4 million, or 97 cents a share. Analysts expected earnings of 82 cents a share. Revenue fell 7.7% to $1.39 billion from $1.5 billion a year ago.

For 2008, the company said it expects “moderate” revenue growth and earnings per share growth of 4% to 7%, compared to 2007. The company said for the first quarter of 2008, it expects to ship between 68,000 and 72,000 Harley-Davidson motorcycles, compared to 67,761 units in the first quarter of 2007, and for the year overall it plans to ship fewer motorcycles than it expects dealers to sell.

Financial Services Segment
Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) reported fourth quarter operating income of $38.6 million, a decrease of $9.1 million or 19.1 percent compared to the year ago quarter. The decrease is primarily due to a $6.4 million write-down of retained securitization interests. HDFS full year operating income was $212.2 million, a 0.7 percent increase over last year’s $210.7 million.

Stock Repurchase
The Company repurchased 3.2 million shares of its common stock at a cost of $153.3 million during the fourth quarter of 2007. For the full year 2007, they repurchased 20.4 million shares at a total cost of $1.15 billion. On December 31, 2007, the Company had 238.5 million shares of common stock outstanding.

As of December 31, 2007, there are 23.1 million shares remaining on board-approved share repurchase authorizations. An additional board-approved share repurchase authorization is in place to offset option exercises. This is roughly 10% of outstanding shares.

Cash Flow
Cash and marketable securities totaled $405.3 million as of December 31, 2007. Cash flow from operations was $798.1 million, and capital expenditures were $242.1 million during the full year of 2007. In 2008, capital expenditures are expected to be between $240 and $260 million.

With the US market clearly going to be in the doldrums for at least the first half of 2008, HOG must be seeing very positive trends in international markets.

The stock was down after the news in a flat market. Trading at near 5 year lows and yielding over 3%, there is not much more downside to shares from here.

Time to buy for those who have been waiting. Now, the market has been trading in some wild swings lately and looks on Friday morning to be approaching its first winning week this year so expect a wild ride (inference intended). That being said, we have been waiting since shares approached $70 to buy Harley and the time is now.

We bought on Friday at $38.05 a share

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long HOG

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