Tag: davidson

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On Friday the United Steelworkers and International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, Local 2-209, is expected t approve a 4 year deal with Harley Davidson (HOG). Terms have not been disclosed.

Last summer 2,900 workers in York., PA struck and finally agreed to a 12% pay raise over 4 years and the agreement is widely thought to be a blueprint for the current negotiations.

Now that HOG has put to rest labor issues the timing of this is very good for the company. Dealer inventories are reported to be tight all over and the spring selling season is beginning in earnest. With that being said, the last thing HOG would want at this time was a labor disruption that would cause delivery disruptions to dealers.

While 2008 is not supposed to be a banner year for sales by any means, all evidence is that the company and its dealer network have done a wonderful job controlling inventory levels.

With possible labor issues behind it, HOG will now be able to control production on its own term to assure steady inventory levels.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long HOG

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As gas approaches $4 a gallon, are consumer going to switch to two wheels to save money? It would seem early results are ..yes.

The questions was posed to an Illinois Harley Dealer recently.

Shad Zimbro, co-owner of Black Diamond Harley Davidson in Marion, Illinois says,”It really is the truth because they do save a lot of money in gas by going to a motorcycle.” He says his sales have doubled since last year.

Motorcycles tend to average about 50 miles a gallon and Harley makes models that get 70. Zimbro says he commutes 40 miles a day to work on his Harley and saves about $100 a week by doing so.

It does make perfect sense but obviously we need more data to see if it is just a regional trend or a larger on. The significance of his increase though, is impressive and that does lead me to believe it may be more than a local event.

In January Harley did issue 2008 guidance above the consensus estimates so perhaps they are seeing something?

We’ll have to wait until late spring to get more info but I am thinking that this may actually be something larger..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long HOG

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Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Just two days after I posted on the specter of Harley Davidson (HOG) entering India, the Indian government answers.

While HOG has requested a reduction of the current tariffs to 10% and the ability to establish dealerships in the country, they got 1/2 of what they wanted.

After all, the bike is going to be imported by rich people. Let them pay duty,” an unnamed official said. “This means, instead of delivering its bikes to individual buyer, the company can appoint dealers in India,” the official said.

This is good news. Not “great” but still very good. Great would have been getting both. HOG now has the ability to establish a dealer network in the country and while it may not sell tens of thousands of bikes there, it will begin to establish a presence and the brand. Due to the tariffs it will be a luxury item but, given the income disparity in the region, it is more than possible any drag on sales will be minimal as the vast majority of the population would not have been able to afford the bikes anyway.

Given the two choices, this one must be considered the better result. Establishing a network in the country is far better long term. Once there they can continue to lobby for tariff reductions and having the bikes in showrooms will boost sales to a middle class that otherwise may not have considered one.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long HOG

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MasterCard (MA)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
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ResMed (RMD)- Caris & Company Above Average » Buy
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)- Caris & Company Average » Above Average
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Walgreen (WAG)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Moody’s (MCO)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
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Anworth Mortgage (ANH )- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Equinix (EQIX)- Merriman Curhan Ford Neutral » Buy

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Riverview Bancorp, Inc. (RVSB)- DA Davidson Neutral » Underperform
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Centene (CNC)- Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Underperform
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Acme Packet (APKT)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
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Idearc (IAR) Deutsche Securities Hold » Sell
PDF Solutions (PDFS)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
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Shire Pharm (SHPGY)- Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Underweight
Telecom Corp. New Zealand (NZT)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
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DIRECTV (DTV)- Bernstein Mkt Perform » Outperform
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Flowserve (FLS)- Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
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Clear Channel Outdoor (CCO)- Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
Celestica (CLS) Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
Motorola (MOT) Citigroup Hold » Buy
Affiliated Computer (ACS)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
PepsiAmericas (PAS)- Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
Electronic Arts (ERTS)- Broadpoint Capital Neutral » Buy
Autoliv (ALV)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Owens-Illinois (OI)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)- HSBC Securities Underweight » Neutral
Medarex (MEDX)- Banc of America Sec Sell » Neutral
Infinera (INFN)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Walt Disney (DIS)- Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform

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Maxim Integrated (MXIM)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Maxim Integrated (MXIM)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Yahoo! (YHOO)- Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
RF Micro Device (RFMD)- Needham & Co Strong Buy » Buy
Maxim Integrated (MXIM)- William Blair Mkt Perform » Underperform
TiVo (TIVO)- William Blair Mkt Perform » Underperform
Newell Rubbermaid (NWL)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Landstar System (LSTR)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Avid Tech (AVID)- Kaufman Bros Hold » Sell
American Express (AXP)- Sandler O’Neill Buy » Hold
Maxim Integrated (MXIM)- Citigroup Buy » Sell
Exar (EXAR)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
St. Mary Lnd/Expl (SM )- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Trident Microsystems (TRID)- Roth Capital Hold » Sell
Maxim Integrated (MXIM)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Google (GOOG)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
FNB Corp. (NC) (FNBN)- Keefe Bruyette Outperform » Mkt Perform
United Dominion (UDR)- Keefe Bruyette Outperform » Mkt Perform
Audible (ADBL)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Syngenta (SYT)- UBS Neutral » Sell
Lowe’s (LOW )-Citigroup Buy » Hold
AstraZeneca (AZN)- HSBC Securities Overweight » Neutral
Mentor Corp (MNT)- Merriman Curhan Ford Buy » Neutral
TiVo (TIVO)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Underperform

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