Categories
Articles

Watching Mr. Copper

This goes to recent statement from other industrial producers…

Wall St. Newsletters

“Davidson submits”

Keep an eye on “Dr.Copper”.

Dennis Gartman, Doug Kass and other traders focus on this for fundamental changes in the direction of the markets. The cost of production is variously pegged between $1.50-$2.00lb with $1.75lb often mentioned. Copper being fundamental to the transfer of electricity for buildings, machinery, transportation and construction is often used to signal changes in economic activity and has the moniker “Dr. Copper”.

Copper’s trend as reflected in Freeport McMoran (FCX) and the commodity appears to have begun a new uptrend. This bears watching.


My Thoughts (not Davidson’s):

“Inventory destocking” has been a theme lately. The trend (running inventories to very low levels) has destroyed earnings for chemical producers like Dow Chemical (DOW), BASF (BASF) and caused commodity prices to plummet (people who are not producing things aren’t buying the ingredients).

Data like this also suggests when the global economy turns (there is evidence the free fall is abating) with inventory levels next to zero, we could see an explosion of orders and manufacturing activity. China has a stimulus package it enacted that is building everything under the sun and the US one, while diminutive in statue (and eventual effectiveness) will increase activity here somewhat.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Dow, none

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Buffett Talks About Dow Chemical / Rohm & Haas

Wall St. Newsletters

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Dow Chemical / Rohm & Hass Rhetoric Takes a Turn

Less than a month ago Dow Chemical (DOW) was begging Rohm & Haas (ROH) to come to the bargaining table. Now, after a new agreement with their lenders and some chiding from the judge, they are essentially telling Rohm, “give the deal we want or we’ll see you in court”.

Wall St. Newsletters

Reuters Reports:

Dow Chemical Co (DOW.N) said on Sunday that settlement talks with Rohm and Haas Co (ROH.N) were going “quite well” on the eve of a scheduled court hearing on their soured $15 billion merger. Unless a settlement is reached, Dow and Rohm and Haas are set to face off on Monday in Delaware court over Dow’s refusal to close its more than $15 billion takeover of Rohm and Haas.

A spokesman for Dow said it was looking for the “right deal,” but a takeover of Rohm and Haas at $78 per share in cash was not acceptable. Unless Dow gets the right deal, it said it would proceed with the court hearing. Dow said it was important that it protected its investment-grade rating.

Dow said it would have more to disclose on Monday. Rohm and Haas could not be immediately reached for comment.

Notice the change? Dow has taken Rohm’s arguments off the table and the judge has made it clear that he will weight the interests of the near 60,000 employees the combined entity would have vs the interest of the 3 shareholder groups who stand to benefit the most should the merger be forced immediately. One can’t help but think it was a less than subtle way of saying “get to the table”.

Recent actions have Dow making concessions and working with its bankers. Here is the rub for Rohm. The whole deal is contingent on Dow extending is loans with the bank an additional year. The banks agreed to do that only if Dow maintains its credit rating. Forcing the deal now would cause them to lose that and the whole deal would end up costing jobs…lots of them, a scenario the judge has already alluded to wanting to avoid.

It is the banks who are now forcing the hands of Rohm. Expect concessions on the part of them,,,

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long DOW

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Dow Chemical Receives Option to Extend Loans: Some Thoughts

Dow Chemical (DOW) and Rohm & Haas (ROH) have confirmed they are back at the bargaining table. To accentuate the “a deal is close” scenario, Dow announced in an 8K filing that they have renegotiated their loans with the syndicate and the key point is that the loan can be extended for an additional year under certain conditions.

Wall St. Newsletters

From the 8K

On September 8, 2008, The Dow Chemical Company (the “Company”), as borrower, entered into a Term Loan Agreement (the “Original Agreement”) with the lenders party thereto and Citibank, N.A., as administrative agent for the lenders, in order to partially finance the acquisition by the Company (the “Acquisition”) of Rohm and Haas Company (the “Target”), to retire certain debt of the Target and to pay related costs and expenses. On March 5, 2009, the parties to the Original Agreement entered into a First Amendment to Term Loan Agreement (the “First Amendment”) in order to amend the Original Agreement (as so amended, the “Loan Agreement”).

Under the Loan Agreement, the lenders have committed to lend to the Company an aggregate principal amount that will not exceed the sum of each of their commitments, the total amount of which was reduced by $500,000,000 to $12,500,000,000 pursuant to the First Amendment, in a single term borrowing on the date of the closing of the Acquisition. The Loan Agreement will mature on the earlier of (a) the first anniversary of the closing date and (b) April 14, 2010; provided, however, that the original maturity date of the Loan Agreement may be extended to the date occurring one year following the original maturity date, at the option of the Company, subject to the satisfaction of certain conditions precedent, including (i) the absence, since December 31, 2008, of a material adverse change in the financial position or operations of the Company and its consolidated subsidiaries, considered as a whole (except for the Acquisition and the financing thereof and except for any changes disclosed in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2008; provided that any changes or developments relating to matters so disclosed (and the effects thereof) that arise after December 31, 2008 may be taken into account in determining whether a material adverse change has occurred), (ii) compliance with the total leverage ratio covenant described below as of the original maturity date, if such covenant is applicable on such date, (iii) the reduction of the aggregate principal amount of the loans under the Loan Agreement to $8,000,000,000 or less, and (iv) the payment of an extension fee equal to 2% of the aggregate principal amount of the outstanding loans after giving effect to the extension.

The Loan Agreement permits loans bearing interest at a rate per annum equal to either the prime rate or LIBOR plus, in each case, a margin that varies based on the Company’s credit rating (the “Applicable Margin”); provided, however, that if the original maturity date of the Loan Agreement is extended as described in the preceding paragraph, then the Applicable Margin shall increase, as set forth in the Loan Agreement, on the date of extension, on the 90th day following such date and on each successive 90th day thereafter.

The Company has agreed to pay to the lenders a structuring fee equal to 1.25% of the aggregate amount of the lenders’ commitments. Additionally, under the Loan Agreement, the Company is obligated from time to time to pay certain duration fees to the lenders, as set forth in the Loan Agreement. Higher rates will apply to certain of these fees (i) unless, on or prior to the 90th day following the date of the closing of the Acquisition, the Company consummates one or more sales of certain equity interests or equity-linked securities for which it receives aggregate gross cash proceeds of at least $1,500,000,000 (calculated, in the case of equity-linked securities, based on the amount of “equity credit” accorded thereto by certain rating agencies) (a “New Equity Issuance”) or (ii) if a New Equity Issuance does occur on or prior to such 90th day following the date of the closing of the Acquisition, but the outstanding indebtedness under the Loan Agreement has not been reduced to the extent specified under the Loan Agreement.

I would still be very surprised if this went to trial. The benefit of the deal to the 3 principle shareholders of Rohm and Haas will not, under any circumstances win out over the potential job losses in this economy a forced merger would likely cause.

That is why Rohm is back at the table. Now the key is the loan extension. Dow can extend the $12.5 billion loan an additional year provided the keep their credit rating investment grade. Forcing the merger now under the original terms would void that. Also, Dow has cut the dividend and said it will raise another $3 billion through debt sales. In short they have taken away any argument Rohm has claiming Dow has not sought alternative avenues in which to complete the deal. They clearly have.

Yes I know Rohm has an “iron clad” agreement. But, in a Delaware Court the Judge decides what is “equitable” or “fair” for both parties. He is required to find a solution that is “best for all parties”, employees included. He has already told Dow and Rohm to “find a business solution” more than once. That translates to: “Dow, you are going to do this deal” and “Rohm, it won’t be now or under the original terms”.

This is why Rohm has decided to talk, even they now realize the outcome they face in court in far less favorable than it was a month ago.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long DOW

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Judge Rules Haas Family to be Deposed

Dow Chemical (DOW) won a ruling in court Friday vs Rohm & Haas (ROH).

Wall St. Newsletters

Dow Chemical / Rohm & Haas Depositions

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Court Filings Business & Legal dow chemical rohm ha

My take on this is Dow will attempt to get the founding family on record saying they wished for the combined entity to survive. If Dow can then cast doubt on that should the merger be forced immediately, then they now have a huge continent of shareholders in essence wanting the merger to be delayed (not canceled).

Either way, it will be interesting..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long DOW

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Hotchkis & Wiley Releases Misleading Press Release About Their Holdings in Dow Chemical & Rohm & Haas

When I first read this press release, I was left wondering what I was missing. How could Hotchkis & Wiley, as a Dow shareholder as intimated in this letter want a merger now? So I did some digging and guess what I found?

Wall St. Newsletters

Here is the press release:

LOS ANGELES–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Hotchkis and Wiley Capital Management
today announced the firm has contacted Rohm and Haas Company (NYSE:ROH –
News) to express support for the closing of the acquisition of Rohm and
Haas by The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW – News) under the
contractual terms of a definitive agreement entered by Dow and Rohm and
Haas on July 10, 2008.
A large shareholder of Rohm and Haas, Hotchkis and Wiley addressed CEO
and chairman Rajiv Gupta in the following letter today:

Mr. Rajiv L Gupta
CEO and Chairman of the Board
Rohm and Haas Company
100 Independence Mall West
Philadelphia, PA 19106

Dear Mr. Gupta,

We are writing to express Hotchkis and Wiley’s support for your efforts
to close the Dow Chemical transaction on its contractual terms. As a
recent top ten shareholder of Dow Chemical and current large shareholder
of Rohm and Haas, we are intimately familiar with the assets of both
companies. Additionally, we have undertaken a thorough analysis of the
merger agreement and Dow Chemical’s ability to finance this transaction.

Regarding the merger agreement, our conclusion is that specific
performance is warranted. We view the contract as strong and unlikely to
be improved. It is our view that Dow Chemical should honor their
commitment. However, in the event that the agreement continues to be
breached, we want to affirm your resolve to seek specific performance
along the original terms laid out in the contract. Any change to the
original contract would merely expose shareholders of Rohm and Haas to
unnecessary risks.

Dow has a variety of options available to honor the agreement on its
original terms. These options include drawing down the bridge loan,
divesting certain assets, obtaining long-term debt financing and issuing
equity. While the current financial crisis has made financing terms less
favorable than they have been in the past, options are nevertheless
available. Any one or combination of these options would provide the
capital needed to close the transaction.

The most obvious solution for Dow Chemical is to undertake an equity
offering. This option has been available to Dow since the signing of the
agreement and continues to be available today. We believe that the
current uncertainty regarding the transaction has obscured the value of
the combined entity. We have expressed to Dow Chemical our interest in
participating in an equity offering to accommodate the transaction.

Hotchkis and Wiley has a 28 year history of investing in US equity
markets. As of December 31, 2008, we managed $10.8 billion in client
assets. We look forward to being of any help possible. Please contact me
with any questions or follow up discussion.

Sincerely,
Stan Majcher
Principal and Portfolio Manager

One problem, Hotchkis and Wiley Capital Management is no longer a shareholder in Dow chemical acording to theirrecent 13H-R SEC filing.

At no time does Hotchkiss admit they no longer are Dow shareholders. Isn’t this is violation of some SEC disclosure law? Sure they say “recent top ten holder” but at no point do they admit they are “no longer a shareholder”. One could assume they were a recent top ten holder and now own a lesser percentage or recently became a top ten holder. It is open to interpretation and I think was done so on purpose.

If we look at the SEC filing Hotchkiss is in Rohm at about $69 a share. That means they are underwater in their holdings at current prices by about $15 a share. This press release is a stunning attempt to manipulate public opinion and the market through a lack of transparency….

Anyone at the SEC working today????

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Dow , None

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Will Rohm & Haas Win in Court vs Dow? Not so Fast

I have been trying to make this point for a while. He is another take on it re: the Rohm & Hass (ROH) / Dow Chemical (DOW) litigation is not the slam dunk some seem to think it is. This is from Peter Friedman, a law professor and former Wall Street attorney.

Wall St. Newsletters

Here is the post…

Courts are supposed to do justice even if doing so costs individuals a lot of money.

Joe Nocera writes in the New York Times that to even suggest “that maybe, just maybe, deals that stop making sense ought to be called off, or at least rejiggered, especially in the middle of a once-in-a-lifetime financial crisis – invites withering scorn, especially if you say it to someone on Wall Street or in the legal profession.”

I’ve worked in the legal profession on Wall Street, and I like to think that when what the law seems to compel makes no sense the law has the capacity to adjust, to do justice instead of nonsense. My thinking isn’t purely the product of naivete and idealism. There really is a legal (or, rather, for the lawyers among my readers, an equitable) argument to stop the particular deal Nocera is writing about. Moreover, that argument is precisely that the deal makes no sense to an interest — the public — much more important than the individuals who would profit mightily from the deal.

Here’s the deal: “Last summer, the Dow Chemical Company won a heated auction for a well-run, highly valued specialty chemical company called Rohm & Haas. . . . The price it agreed to pay was high: $78 a share in cash, a 74 percent premium, for a total of about $15.3 billion.” The problem is that in light of the global financial crisis and a collapse of the chemical business, if the deal goes through the resulting Dow/Rohm & Haas entity “could be badly damaged, saddled with high-priced debt in a horrible business environment, and a junk bond credit rating.”

What does that mean? It means that if the deal goes through Dow would need to strip itself to the bare bones to survive or would collapse altogether. This while “Dow Chemical employs around 45,000 people; Rohm & Haas employs more than 15,000.” This while “the American chemical industry – which was suffering even before the financial crisis because of the rise of commodity chemical companies in China and elsewhere – is going to be in a bad place for the foreseeable future.” This “[a]t a time when every job matters, and when the economy is holding on for dear life . . .”

In return, the shareholders of Rohm & Haas will get $15.3 billion. According to Answers.com, ‘the Haas family, descendants of one of the company’s two founders, continue to control a substantial ownership interest of nearly 30 percent” of those shares. So the the Haas family and the other Rohm & Haas shareholders are suing for “specific performance” of the contract with Dow; that is, they are asking a Delaware court to order Dow to go through with the deal to buy Rohm & Haas for $15.3 billion.

I’m not sure why there’s “withering scorn” for the suggestion that a court might refuse to enforce a deal that threatens 60,000 jobs and, as Nocera writes, would probably destroy “billions of dollars of value.” It’s no stretch to suggest that at a time of global economic collapse and at a time when President Obama is fighting to inject billions of dollars into the economy, the deal is not in the public interest.

Why am I willing to defy the withering scorn of the Wall Street experts? Because specific performance, the remedy Rohm & Haas is asking the court to grant, is an what is known as an “equitable” remedy. In order to show it is entitled to equitable relief, Rohm & Haas must show that the outcome makes sense even after the court balances “all the equities” involved. In other words, the court must determine whether, considering all of the interests at stake in the lawsuit, ordering the deal to go through would be more fair than unfair. The public interest plainly is one of those interests the court must consider. Because the deal poses such a great threat to the public interest, the equities do not favor the deal; the equities, in fact, weigh heavily against enforcing the contract between Dow and Rohm & Haas.

In legalese, Corporate and Commercial Practice in Delaware confirms that this is the law in Delaware:

[I]f specific performance of a contract would cause significant public harm, then the Court has discretion to deny such relief, even where a breach of contract and substantial harm to plaintiff have been established . . .

1-12 Corp & Commercial Practice in DE Court of Chancery § 12.03 (Matthew Bender 2008), citing Alro Assoc., L.P. v. Hayward, CA 19544 (Del. Ch. Oct. 31, 2003), mem. op. at 22-26 (holding that where plaintiff had established breach of contract by Delaware Department of Transportation and where Court had assumed irreparable harm to plaintiff, specific performance was not appropriate due to a balance of equities weighing strongly in favor of public interest).

Courts really are supposed to do justice notwithstanding the fact Wall Street expresses withering scorn at the thought.

Link to original post

Now, Dow is trading as if they will be forced to complete the transaction on after the trial in March. Should that not be the case, shares should surge…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long DOW

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital Releases 13F

He added 3 million shares of Dow Chemical (DOW) in Q4.

Wall St. Newsletters


Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

"Mark to Market" ….It Continues

A follow-up to my recent post.

Wall St. Newsletters

Tradefast Says:

To my point- it isn’t just the market for stocks and snow shovels which exhbit cyclical/predictable patterns. These patterns are also apparent in the market for physical business assets – plant and equipment.

Pick a major steel company, a paper company, a chemical company (without loss of generality)- if the company had to dispose of all their plants at the bid side of today’s market, would any of these companies be solvent. Why? Because the bid/ask spread for these physical assets is exceedingly wide in a recession. If you marked all of U.S. Steel’s assets to the price where they can sell a marginal ton of capacity, X would be bankrupt. Fortunately, X is under no pressure to liquidate assets – so we can all play along with the assumption that the company is solvent, with a very substantial net worth.

Ah, but what about the banks? No such benefit of the doubt is given to banks. We assume that if a bank has assets with a wide bid/ask, the bank must be camoflauging the fact that they are insolvent and most of their assets are ‘toxic’. The market is broken, illiquidity premiums are enormous, bid/ask spreads on bank assets are in disequilibrium, and mark-to-market account rules need to be repealed, ASAP. I expect the accounting rules to change, probably within a week.

My two cents:
There have been rumors all week that some repeal of it is in the works. Not a full reversal of the policy, but one that deals with illiquid securities that essentially have no market. When forced to liquidate, the seller takes whatever the buyer offers. That then sets the market for all other securities held by all whether they need to sell or not.

In its basic essence, mark to market empowers to weakest holder of securities to set the value of the strongest’s, thus dragging down the whole system to its level. That is not what capitalism is about. The strong are supposed to survive and prosper while the weak fall by themselves to the wayside.

What has happened now is the weak, far from falling by the wayside have become a massive anchor on the whole system……..not good.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Berkshire Now Just Might Be A Buy??

After a a year of saying Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) was no value, I’m thinking it just may be getting there.

Wall St. Newsletters

In July 2008 I said:

Wholly-owned subs such as Shaw Industries, Clayton Homes, Jordan’s Furniture (the are 4 furniture companies), Benjamin Moore, Home Services and Acme Brick and directly tied to housing and will suffer in the downturn.

For all its holdings, Berkshire is essentially an insurance company. It has operated under “perfect” conditions for the last two years according to Buffett and eventually to run must end. Premiums are already falling and as houses are re-poed and fewer new cars are purchase, insurance premiums derived from those products will fall accordingly. I know people who are looking at homeowners and auto policies for way to decrease coverage and save money. Whether or not this is a good idea is irrelevant (I do not think it is), it is happening. Throw in a hurricane or two (we are due) and insurance could suffer quite a poor year.

For more on Berkshire’s insurance read this former post:

Back in March when shares sat at $133,000 I argued they were not a “value”. Today they sit at $111,000. Are they a value now? Perhaps but one also has to expect that the near term, if Tilson is correct is fraught with potholes for Berkshire and earnings ought to take a hit.

Based on that, share price ought to suffer also meaning you will probably be able to pick them up cheaper down the road. If I owned shares would I sell? If I needed the money in the next year, yes. If I had a multi-year time frame would I sell? No. If that was the case I would be watching down the road for a cheaper entry price, I think you’ll get it.

What has happened since then?

From Barrons:

Berkshire agreed to purchase $150 million of 10 1/8% notes due in 2015 and $250 million of 10 3/8% notes due in 2018 from Birmingham, Ala.-based Vulcan. The note sale was reported in late January, but Vulcan didn’t identify the buyer of the notes until Tuesday’s earnings conference call.

Other recent Berkshire bond purchases include $300 million of Harley Davidson Inc. (HOG) 15% notes due in 2014 and $150 million of Sealed Air 12% notes due in 2014.

These purchases follow big transactions in the fourth quarter, when Berkshire purchased $5 billion of 10% preferred stock from Goldman Sachs (GS) and $3 billion of 10% preferred from General Electric (GE). Both those deals came with a sizable amount of equity warrants. During October, Berkshire also bought $4.4 billion of 11.45% subordinated notes and $2.1 billion of 5% preferred stock issued by Wrigley, which was purchased by Mars in a leveraged buyout.

One deal that Buffett probably regrets is his agreement to purchase $3 billion of convertible preferred stock in Dow Chemical Co. (DOW) if it goes forward with its deal to buy chemical maker Rohm & Haas Co. (ROH) for $15 billion. Berkshire’s purchase is contingent on the consummation of the deal.

Buffett may be hoping that the deal dies, or that Dow comes back to Berkshire with more generous terms to get a larger investment from Berkshire if Dow goes forward with the deal. Dow is resisting completion of the transaction, arguing that the debt that it would have to take on would be ruinous financially. As it stands, the Dow convertible preferred that Berkshire agreed to purchase will carry an 8.5% interest rate and a conversion price around $40, way above Dow’s current share price of $10.

If we do some simple math, Bekshire has put roughly $17.9 billion to work at 10%. That will provide Berkshire $1.7 billion a year for the next three years (some of it may convert to equity at that point). When one considers Berkshire has earned $7.8 billion of the last 12 months (Q4 2008 numbers not released yet), Buffett’s recent moved will add 21% to those earnings.

Now, insurance. Yes as stated above, the party is over but, rates are scheduled for increases. As insurance companies look to cover losses in investment portfolio’s, the aggressive pricing that has taken place in the past few years will abate, causing industry rates to rise. Also, one should expect those insurance companies feeling the pinch to take fewer larger risks. Since this is an area Berkshire loves to play in, fewer players will mean stronger pricing power on the part of Berkshire.

We will not a resurgence to the “glory years” in insurance, but conditions for the first time in a few years will improve. Remember, Berkshire is essentially an insurance company, since that business seems to have stabilized, being the best of that lot, we must assume Berkhsire has.

Berkshire’s investment portfolio has been hurt this year by the weak showing of some of its major equity investments, Wells Fargo (WFC), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Kraft (KFT), Coca-Cola (K) and Procter & Gamble (PG). While prices here are depressed, there is no permanent impairment to earnings and that is a point being missed by folks. To believe these companies will be at depressed prices 3 years from now means the global economy will not recover. If you believe that, buying any equity is a waste of time.

Berkshire is big holder of those three companies’ shares and it also is short $37 billion of long-dated put options on the S&P 500 and other equity indexes. As the market has dropped, Berkshire has taken a charge to earnings (no cash) in the write-down of the value of these options. When the market rises, the opposite will happen (write-up). Again, to assume no improvement here implies US business is stagnant for the next decade.

Now, Berkshire is down roughly 33% since my fist post on it. The difference now is that several of its businesses are showing signs of life and Buffett has put billions to work at 10% vs the pittance is was getting previously in Treasuries.

The next piece of the puzzle is the Berkshire manufacturing businesses listed above. They will turn when the economy does. If you believe that is the 2nd half of this year, the time to buy is now. If you believe that is 2010, you have time to wait.

Will Berkshire go lower? I do not know but I do know that there isn’t a good reason for it to go much lower barring further dramatic worldwide economic collapse.

Time will tell but I think Berkhsire at its current levels do not have much more downside….

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WFC, none

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Kuwait Desperately Tries to Save Reputation

This is about as transparent as it gets…But, it could lead to something..

Wall St. Newsletters

From the FT

The Kuwait Investment Authority would consider increasing its support for Dow Chemical’s (DOW) disputed takeover of Rohm and Haas (ROH) if the terms of the deal were changed to account for the downturn, a person familiar with the matter says.

Dow failed to complete the $15bn (€11.5bn) deal after the collapse of a joint venture between Dow and PIC – an arm of the Kuwaiti Petroleum Corporation – that was supposed to contribute $7.5bn to help pay for the acquisition. Warren Buffett has agreed to contribute $3bn and the KIA was to have added $1bn. According to a person with direct knowledge of the matter, the KIA would consider putting up more money if there were new terms.

“Today, it is very difficult to complete this deal on the old terms,” this person added. “There would have to be a new price and new terms. The environment has changed so much and chemical companies are losing so much money.”

Rohm and Haas underlined the brutal conditions faced by the sector, reporting an 81 per cent fall in fourth quarter earnings from continuing operations.

The figures make it harder for Dow to justify paying its original price for the company. Rohm shares fell more than 1 per cent to $55.70 at midday in New York, well below the $78 per share Dow agreed to pay last year.

The KIA had not approached Dow to discuss increasing its investment in the deal, Dow said. It is also highly unlikely that KIA on its own would put in anything like the $7bn to $8bn Dow would need to close the Rohm deal.

However, an increased investment by the KIA strikes many analysts as an elegant solution to the break-up of the Dow-PIC joint venture.

“There is a concern as to Kuwait’s reputation for direct foreign investment,” says Ahmed Barakat, managing partner with Al-Sarraf & Al-Ruwayeh in Kuwait City who is not directly involved in the matter. “KIA could salvage that reputation.”

Initial talks between the Kuwaitis and Dow began in 2007. In November 2008, the deal was renegotiated to reduce the Kuwaiti contribution to $7.5bn from $9bn in recognition of the deterioration in the economy.

Even the revised terms, however, met with criticism in the Kuwaiti parliament, where questions were raised about the price tag and a $2.5bn break-up fee.

Dow has until July to take advantage of its one-year bridge loan for the deal. It reported a $1.55bn fourth quarter loss.

What do we really have? Kuwait has finally realized the obvious to everyone else. They have done irreparable harm to their reputation as a business partner. At all cost, they want to avoid the coming legal confrontation with Dow. Why? Discovery will lead to disclosure on internal communication with Dow and their deception will be laid bare for the world to see.

Recent accusation from Kuwait of bribery from Dow officials and “reviewing” other upcoming ventures only served to further cast doubt on the country as a business partner in the international community.

This “offer to help” is an olive branch to Dow. What will happen is Kuwait will commit more funding for the Rohm deal and in return, Dow will drop its seeking $2.5 billion in damages. Despite what Kuwait has done, they are still a valuable partner for Dow although Kuwait must now see that Dow does have options as it has been confirmed they are talking to Sabic (Saudi Basic Industies) to purchase to commodity businesses Kuwait had been scheduled to buy. One must come to the conclusion the Kuwaiti’s thought they were the only dance partner Dow had.

Dow dropping the lawsuit lets Kuwait off the hook and clears the way for future collaborations, a positive for both parties.

Like I have said all along, this will all get worked out…in due time…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long DOW. none

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

"Buffett Metric" Does NOT Say It Is Time To Buy $$

So, there is a chart and a story going around regarding Berkshire’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett that just does not jive to me. Hat Tip to “Davidson” for pointing bringing it to my attention..

Wall St. Newsletters

First, here is the chart:

Here is the story that follows:

Fortune Magazine) — Is it time to buy U.S. stocks?

According to both this 85-year chart and famed investor Warren Buffett, it just might be. The point of the chart is that there should be a rational relationship between the total market value of U.S. stocks and the output of the U.S. economy – its GNP.

Fortune first ran a version of this chart in late 2001 (see “Warren Buffett on the stock market“). Stocks had by that time retreated sharply from the manic levels of the Internet bubble. But they were still very high, with stock values at 133% of GNP. That level certainly did not suggest to Buffett that it was time to buy stocks.

But he visualized a moment when purchases might make sense, saying, “If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% to 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you.”

Well, that’s where stocks were in late January, when the ratio was 75%. Nothing about that reversion to sanity surprises Buffett, who told Fortune that the shift in the ratio reminds him of investor Ben Graham’s statement about the stock market: “In the short run it’s a voting machine, but in the long run it’s a weighing machine.”

Not just liking the chart’s message in theory, Buffett also put himself on record in an Oct. 17 New York Times op-ed piece, saying that he was personally buying U.S. stocks after a long period of owning nothing (outside of Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) stock) but U.S. government bonds.

He said that if prices kept falling, he expected to soon have 100% of his net worth in U.S. equities. Prices did keep falling – the Dow Jones industrials have dropped by about 10% since Oct. 17 – so presumably Buffett kept buying. Alas for all curious investors, he isn’t saying what he bought.

To examine this we need to go back the beginning.

One must remember that in the late 1960 Buffett closed the “Buffett Partnership” because at that time he felt “there were no values” in the general stock market. Yet, according to both the chart above and the story, Buffett would have been buying at this time.

If we fast forward to the mid 1970’s, a time when Buffett said he felt like “a guy in a whorehouse with a suitcase of cash” because stocks we so cheap, we see the above charts value level was actually below 50%. In fact, most of the largest positions in Berkshire’s portfolio, American Express (AXP), Coke (K), Gillette now PG (PG) and The Washington Post (WPO) were accumulted during this time. In fact, Buffett’s buying continued through the 1980’s and until the mid 1990’s when he then found equity values were overpriced, refrained from buying during the tech bubble and was called “out of touch” (he was later proven very right).

Again, looking at the chart we see during that at this time frame the chart values had crept back to the 75% level of the mid 1960’s when Buffett was a seller.

What is inmportant to note and what has been lost in the “Buffett is buying rhetoric” is that Warren’s three largest recent investments, totaling roughly $10 billion, Dow Chemical (DOW), GE (GE) and Goldman Sachs (GS) were NOT stocks purchases, they were preferred investments.

Essentially Buffett is betting their share prices will all rise, in the next 3 to 5 years, when the convertibles convert to common stock. Until then, he has a bond paying 10%. With Treasuries paying essentially nothing, Buffett has found a vehicle that pays 10% to park his cash.

Did Buffett pen the link article above? Yes. To be sure Warren is buying an interest in US companies as witnessed above, just not their common stocks (except Burlington Northern (BNI)).

Buffett’s preferred purchases are not an endorsement of cheap US equities, if anything it says he would rather be a bondholder than an equity one……for now.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Dow, GE, none

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

More on Dow Chemical & Rohm and Hass

Spoke Friday with sources who have insight into the litigation between Dow Chemical (DOW) and Rohm & Hass (ROH). Some notes

Wall St. Newsletters

– Delaware courts are “courts of equity”. Simply put, the Judge has a broad array of remedies short of forcing a merger. He could rule for or against “specific performance” and either force the merger or not and then decide on damages. Should he rule against Dow, they would have the option of an appeal.

– He also has the option to order specific performance but at a later date.

– The Judge did seem to recognize and agree that specific performance was a remedy of equity and that because he is in a court of equity, he won’t simply ignore certain realities outside of the contract.

– Dow is trying to impress on the court that those at Rohm & Haas who are fighting to close now, have no interest in the health or outcome of the company after the merger and that the well-being of the near 60,000 employees should be taken into account by the court.

For instance, the family of company founder Otto Haas, would receive $5 billion, Raj Gupta, the chief executive officer of Rohm & Haas would receive over $100 million and Paulson & Co. Inc., second-largest holder of Rohm & Haas stock, the value would be $1.5 billion. In short 3 groups receive nearly 50% of the proceeds of the sale.

Recently, David Bernick, an attorney for Dow, said the Haas family and other shareholders cared only about the huge payout, even more than the future of the company and its employees. “The Haas family apparently has no interest in the health of Rohm & Haas,” he said last week.

This is illustrated by the unwillingness of management to work with Dow at all on the closing date. What happens to the combined entity after the closing is of no interest to management.

– Paulson’s letter was self indulgent and old news. Dow has already considered (and publicly said so) and investigated the remedies he put forth in the letter. His offer to put money into an offering was gratuitous.

Separately, I was informed later in the day Friday (from other sources) that:

– Dow is in very active conversations with parties regarding the commodity business. The source said they believe that the primary party was Sabic or the Saudi Basic Industries Corp. You’ll remember they were the buyer for GE’s(GE) plastic business

More on this as I get more information..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long DOW

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

John Paulson’s "Advice" to Dow Chemical

Am the only one who thinks Paulson just wants his cash? Now, I do not blame him nor do I think he is being “greedy” but let’s not walk through the door under the “I’m here to help” auspice when we all know why you are there.

Wall St. Newsletters

First the letter:

Dear Mr. Liveris,

Paulson & Co. Inc. on behalf of funds we manage is Rohm & Haas’ second largest shareholder, currently owning 18.9 million shares. We strongly urge you to close the transaction with Rohm & Haas. Financing is available to you through the committed $13 billion bridge loan and the $4 billion convertible preferred stock financing. Subsequently, if you have concerns about retiring the bridge financing, we suggest that Dow pay it off through a combination of (i) cutting its dividend, (ii) raising common equity and (iii) selling bonds.

While we understand that this is a difficult environment for the chemical industry, current conditions do not have any effect on your obligation to purchase Rohm & Haas. We don’t believe that by intentionally refusing to close the transaction that you are benefiting your shareholders. As you know, Dow’s obligation to complete the merger is not conditioned on financing and Dow is required to take all action necessary to obtain financing. Dow currently has financing in place to complete the acquisition and the combined Dow Rohm & Haas will have numerous alternatives to refinance the bridge loan.

Several times we have made suggestions to senior executives at Dow. First, we suggest that Dow can temporarily reduce its dividend to one cent per share. By doing so, Dow would save around $1.6 billion per year. In just 4 1/2 years, the annual $1.6 billion of cash will effectively replace the $7 billion of net proceeds that Dow was to raise from the unresolved Kuwaiti joint venture.

Second, we suggest that Dow can sell, post closing, $4 billion of new common equity. Many companies, both in the U.S. and abroad, are raising common equity to strengthen their balance sheets and include Anheuser Busch InBev ($9.8 billion) and Xstrata (~$5.9 billion). In this regard, in our conversations with Dow, we indicated that depending on the terms we would seriously consider participating in any equity offering you may make.

Third, we suggest that Dow can further reduce the bank financing by issuing bonds. Currently, there is strong market demand for investment grade debt. In January alone, $100 billion was raised, the most ever in a single month. By cutting the dividend and raising common equity, Dow should be able to maintain its investment grade rating and access the credit markets. We suggest that Dow can raise $5 billion in this market.

By cutting the dividend, raising common equity and selling bonds, Dow could repay the bridge financing by $10 billion, easily facilitating the financing for the acquisition. If desired, Dow can also subsequently issue more common stock or hybrid securities such as convertible preferred and convertible debt to completely repay the bridge facility. In short, a combined Dow Rohm & Haas would have numerous opportunities to refinance all or part of the bridge loan in the equity, bond, term bank loan or hybrid security markets. Of course these refinancing alternatives would be in addition to any proceeds you may receive from the aborted Kuwaiti transaction or other joint venture or asset sales you may pursue.

Of particular note in this regard is InBev’s acquisition of Budweiser which closed in 2008 in the midst of the credit crisis. Rather than complain about the status of the market, InBev drew down the bank financing and closed two business days after receiving antitrust clearance on November 18. Shortly thereafter, on December 16, Anheuser Busch InBev raised $9.8 billion in an equity offering (equivalent to 160% of its shares outstanding) and completely repaid the bridge financing. Furthermore, in January 2009 Anheuser Busch InBev sold approximately $7.5 billion in two debt offerings to repay short term indebtedness.

Interestingly, although Anheuser Busch InBev shares initially declined to a low of euro 10.31 on November 24, 2008, as a result of the repayment of the bridge loan with the equity and debt financings, the stock has risen 93% from its November low to close at euro 19.91 on January 30, 2009.

We suggest that Dow can follow the same strategy as InBev and close and refinance the Rohm & Haas acquisition. As we previously indicated, depending on the terms we would have a high interest in participating in any equity or hybrid security offerings. We also suggest that the Board act quickly in closing the transaction as you risk further damage to your shareholders by unnecessarily delaying the closing.

Let’s just look at it.

Cut the dividend to “pay of bridge loan in 4.5 years” Really? 4.5 years? Paulson does realize that the bridge loan is a ONE YEAR FACILITY, right? I am going to go out on a limb and say that the banks will not accepts “we’ll pay the rest in 3.5 year”….is it just me?

There is an appetite for “investment grade debt”. Here is another problem. Dow is currently under watch to be downgraded to “below investment grade” from the ratings agencies due to the possibility of the forced merger. Where Dow to attempt to issue new debt right now, to think it would be granted at investment grade is wish-full thinking at best. Dow has been exploring additional financing options and has found nothing that is amenable. Does Paulson think this avenue has not been explored?

He says “depending on term” he would seriously consider participating” in a stock or hybrid offering, well, my response would be “why not be like Berkshire (BRK.A) and take some convertible preferred now?” Buffett bought $3 billion, how much do you want? Promises of consideration after the fact are, well, meaningless.

Let just see this for what it is, a Rohm $ Haas (ROH) shareholder who wants to just cash out. You know what? That is ok, who can blame him? I don’t. But as a Dow shareholder, the best thing for US is to delay the closing, sell the commodity businesses and then use that money to complete the transaction and preserve the dividend. That is what is best for us and the management he is writing to works for us, not him or Rohm & Haas shareholders.

Mr. Pauslon, if you want us to take your ideas the least bit serious, come aboard and pick up some shares, debt, or preferred. Do not sit there and tell us what the best thing for us to do is.

We’re not listening..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

How Bad Will it Get? Some Numbers…

Some more thoughts on the economy….

Wall St. Newsletters

Yesterday Dow Chemical (DOW) reported and there were two numbers related that have thus far, been ignored as to their greater effect aside from Dow.

Some background. Dow makes the “stuff” and is used to produce the items that go into almost everything we used. So, if they are not selling their products, it is because end users, (you and me) are not buying cars, houses, anything made of plastic or this that need to get shipped. Without going into a chemistry lesson, they are a “building blocks” manufacturer in short.

Yesterday Dow said that Q4 production ran at 65%, a low number not seen in over 25 years. Here is the worse number. December, was 44%……44%!! That means that until December Dow was running approx. 75% in both October and November. Essentially in December international manufacturing activity fell to a bare subsistence level (Dow does business in over 160 nations).

Dow also said it has seen “December trends continue through January”. From this we can see that Q4 US GDP does not accurately reflect the current world economy its direction and. A 3.8% fall does not reflect the condition we are seeing now in 2009 Q1. Simply put, erase Q4 from your mind and concentrate on just December, that is the trend going forward.

Here is the current employment picture:
The blue dots are ADP numbers and the red “x” are the acual BLS numbers (Bureau of Labor Statistics).

Not good and getting worse.

What is the point? Folks keep asking me what I am buying. Answer? Not stocks. Not now. I think Q1 numbers are going to be really bad (yes, worse than Q4 2008) and lower prices will be had. I do not think the current “stimulus” plan as it is currently proposed will do anything in the short term (6 months) and most likely longer as most direct job creation spending there actually is in it (very little) does not occur until the end of 2009 and 2010. There is virtually nothing coming soon.

Are we doomed? No. Are we going to loose are international standing? No. The world itself cannot recover unless we do. I do not see any significant recovery until the end of 2009 which means low equity prices are in order through this summer. Even if you are “long term”, I would advice waiting. There are scores of quality companies that may be cutting dividends (Dow, GE (GE) to name just two) and that would cause additional price fluctuations and for those who may be buying them for income, dramatic reductions there would be in store.

In short, most investors today have never really seen a hard recession. If we are headed, and based on Dow’s numbers we are, for a year not seen in 25 years, that would put us back to the 1980-81 recession. Now, I was only 12 then and most of today’s investors do not know what it was like. I do remember gas lines and am not saying we are heading back there but most folks today have only really experienced economic bumps in their adult lifetime, not a huge pothole and that is where we are headed. How they will react is really an unknown.

They could continue to spend and make their individual situations even more tenuous OR they could retrench spending and make saving a priority. The former is better for the economy for now but the latter is better for long term prospects.

Am I going to panic and sell everything? No. I’ll continue to collect my dividends and wait. But I do have new money to invest that is sitting OR going into oil (USO), (DXO) and Gold (GLD) for reasons discussed in previous posts (there are more but those are just two examples).

All this means that in order to make “market comparisons” one has to go back to the 1970’s and early to mid 1980’s and ignore recent history as we really have not seen the same economic conditions since then. To compare market behavior since then in recent economic dips and draw conclusions to today is meaningless to an certain extent.

Just hunker down and don’t panic, this to will pass. Just do not get fooled by the occasional market jump…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long DOW, GE, DXO, GLD, none

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books