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Thursday's Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Healthcare Services Group (HCSG)- CL King Neutral » Strong Buy
Middlesex Water (MSEX)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Neutral » Buy
Fannie Mae (FNM)- Fox Pitt Underperform » In Line
NYSE Euronext (NYX)- Sandler O’Neill Hold » Buy
California Pizza (CPKI)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Arch Chemicals (ARJ)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Underweight » Hold
Youbet.com (UBET)- Brean Murray Hold » Buy
Housevalues (SOLD)- Cantor Fitzgerald Hold » Buy
Anadarko Petro (APC)- Bernstein Mkt Perform » Outperform
TLC Vision (TLCV)- CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Outperform
Comcast (CMCSA)- Soleil Hold » Buy
Mediacom Comm (MCCC)- Soleil Hold » Buy
VASCO Data Security (VDSI)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Sara Lee (SLE)- Wachovia Underperform » Mkt Perform
Magellan Midstream (MGG)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Zymogenetics (ZGEN)- Citigroup Sell » Hold
NYSE Euronext (NYX)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
UnionBanCal (UB)- Lehman Brothers Equal-Weight » Overweight
MF Global (MF)- Lehman Brothers Equal-Weight » Overweight
SVB Financial Group (SIVB)- Lehman Brothers Underweight » Overweight
R.H. Donnelley (RHD)- Deutsche Securities Sell » Hold
Syniverse Holdings (SVR)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight

Downgrades
dera Pharma (IDRA)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Buy » Neutral
Kenneth Cole (KCP)- CL King Strong Buy » Neutral
ADA-ES (ADES)- Wedbush Morgan Buy » Hold
PetroChina (PTR)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Synchronoss Tech (SNCR)- Needham Buy » Hold
Innophos Holdings (IPHS)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Quanex (NX)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Quanex (NX)- Davenport Strong Buy » Buy
Sun Life (SLF)- CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Outperform » Sector Perform
Healthcare Realty (HR)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
PNM Resources (PNM)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Underperform
Taleo (TLEO)- Brean Murray Buy » Hold
I-Flow (IFLO)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Sell
Ctrip.com (CTRP)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Sohu.com (SOHU)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Aqua America (WTR)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Georgia Gulf (GGC)- Citigroup Hold » Sell
Knight Capital Group (NITE)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-Weight
Idearc (IAR)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-Weight

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Thursday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Healthcare Services Group (HCSG)- CL King Neutral » Strong Buy
Middlesex Water (MSEX)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Neutral » Buy
Fannie Mae (FNM)- Fox Pitt Underperform » In Line
NYSE Euronext (NYX)- Sandler O’Neill Hold » Buy
California Pizza (CPKI)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Arch Chemicals (ARJ)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Underweight » Hold
Youbet.com (UBET)- Brean Murray Hold » Buy
Housevalues (SOLD)- Cantor Fitzgerald Hold » Buy
Anadarko Petro (APC)- Bernstein Mkt Perform » Outperform
TLC Vision (TLCV)- CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Outperform
Comcast (CMCSA)- Soleil Hold » Buy
Mediacom Comm (MCCC)- Soleil Hold » Buy
VASCO Data Security (VDSI)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Sara Lee (SLE)- Wachovia Underperform » Mkt Perform
Magellan Midstream (MGG)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Zymogenetics (ZGEN)- Citigroup Sell » Hold
NYSE Euronext (NYX)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
UnionBanCal (UB)- Lehman Brothers Equal-Weight » Overweight
MF Global (MF)- Lehman Brothers Equal-Weight » Overweight
SVB Financial Group (SIVB)- Lehman Brothers Underweight » Overweight
R.H. Donnelley (RHD)- Deutsche Securities Sell » Hold
Syniverse Holdings (SVR)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight

Downgrades
dera Pharma (IDRA)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Buy » Neutral
Kenneth Cole (KCP)- CL King Strong Buy » Neutral
ADA-ES (ADES)- Wedbush Morgan Buy » Hold
PetroChina (PTR)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Synchronoss Tech (SNCR)- Needham Buy » Hold
Innophos Holdings (IPHS)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Quanex (NX)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Quanex (NX)- Davenport Strong Buy » Buy
Sun Life (SLF)- CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Outperform » Sector Perform
Healthcare Realty (HR)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
PNM Resources (PNM)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Underperform
Taleo (TLEO)- Brean Murray Buy » Hold
I-Flow (IFLO)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Sell
Ctrip.com (CTRP)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Sohu.com (SOHU)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Aqua America (WTR)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Georgia Gulf (GGC)- Citigroup Hold » Sell
Knight Capital Group (NITE)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-Weight
Idearc (IAR)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-Weight

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Dow Chemical (DOW) Earnings Call Notes

Some very interesting items in this quarters earnings call for Dow Chemical (DOW)

* Dow repurchased 10.8 million shares in the first quarter ($410 million worth) the most purchased in one quarter in over 10 years. Since Q1 2006, Dow has spent $2.5 billion buying back 61 million shares.
* Expect $400 million in repurchases in Q2
* Liveris on JV openings “On the HPPO project with BASF in Antwerp, that project has had some delays, so we expected to be back half this year in terms to start up on the EQUATE expansion that will come up in phases, the third quarter will see the ethylene and EG …EOEG plant come up and the poly ethylene will come up in the early part of next year so there will be some impact from that and the PO project later in the year.”
* Liveris on what will happen with the $9.5 billion from Kuwait:
“I’ve repeated to many of you and so has Geoffery, that our discipline is intact on the M&A front. We’ve had several years of strict discipline, financial and strategic criteria, we are going to go through the year and frankly, the share buyback option as the Kuwait deal looms to close, becomes more and more probable and we’ve always said we’re going to preserve our optionality in case one of the targets we’ve been interested in now, not just for a month, but for years if these targets become more realizable, we will look at them, but I think the probability waits heavily to share buyback, to your question as the year goes by, what you’ll see from us is patience and prudence and discipline and as the Kuwait deal, as Geoffery mentioned in his remarks gets closer and closer to- through the higher due diligence phase to close, the chances of share buyback increase quite dramatically.”

I have been saying what would be perfect would be a $4.5 billion repurchase, a nice dividend hike and keep the rest for acquisitions as they come up. Liveris has proven to be a deft and disciplined value investor in this area and leaving his the means to exercise that ability without the company having to take on more debt is good for shareholders. This does not mean that a year from now if no opportunities arise another $2 to $3 billion could not be bought, there is just no reason to rush out and do it at once, even though it would make a nice headline.

Doing a partial buyback like the one above would enable a $.25 cent dividend increase without any additional cash outlay, bumping the yield up to 4.7% at current prices. I can live with that.

* Liveris on acquisitions:
“And it’s based on history. As you can see, we’ve done 11 smaller acquisitions, as Geoffrey mentioned in his remarks. The probability is that they will stay small until the right opportunity presents itself that’s bigger. Meantime, then, the deadline, if you want to use that term, of the close of our Kuwait deal increases the probability that share buyback will become a reality. And we’re fine with that. I mean, we’re preserving optionality and we’re doing share buyback. It’s a big and. And that’s how we’re managing the Company. That’s how we’re managing the precious cash our shareholders give us the right to manage.”

Am I the only one who thinks Sherwin Williams (SHW) fits perfectly here?

All in all, perfectly in keeping with both stated objectives and the direction given to shareholders.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Dow, SHW

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Dow Chemical (DOW) Beats

Two words, great management. Despite input costs rising 42% and the N. American slowdown, Dow delivered EPS of $.99 vs $1.00 last year beating the $.94 a share estimates.

Dow reported sales of $14.8 billion for the first quarter of 2008, 19& higher than in the same period last year, another quarterly sales record (beat last quarter). Net income was $941 million compared to $973 million in Q1 of 2007.

Equity earnings for the quarter were $274 million, marking the fifth consecutive quarter in which equity earnings exceeded $250 million. The importance of the equity portion is paramount as the percentage of profits derived from them is only going to increase in the future.

Another key sector, Agricultural Sciences, posted record sales of $1.3 billion, 27% higher than the same period last year and EBIT was $331 million, compared with $282 million in the year ago period (another record). Recent acquisitions of Agromen, MTI and Duo Maize performed well, and the integration of recently acquired Triumph Seeds is proceeding nicely.

“Dow delivered an exceptionally good quarter, in which broad-based pricing initiatives, growth in our Performance businesses, especially Dow AgroSciences, and our strong international presence counterbalanced ongoing weakness in the United States, and an unprecedented increase in purchased feedstock and energy costs,” said Andrew N. Liveris, Dow’s chairman and chief executive officer. “Add in consistently robust contributions from joint ventures, and you can see all elements of our strategy at work, as we continue our transformation to an earnings-growth company.”

Earnings call later today, will update then

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long DOW

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Memo To Dow's Liveris: Just Buy Sherwin Williams Already!

“We’re looking at gaps in technology offerings and [improving] channels to market. We’re looking at whether we can develop this organically, or through M&A, alliances, and joint ventures. I’m going to work all the levers I can to fill those gaps.” George Hamilton, president of Dow Coating Solutions, a division of Dow Chemical (DOW).

Enough is enough. Shares of Sherwin Williams (SHW) are practically being given away at he current price. For more on that, see this November, 2007 post. Dow has been yammering about expanding it coating business for two years now. Can anyone think of a better way to “improve the customer experience and gain a better understanding of the markets,” and “make it easier for a customer to give us more of their [coatings] purchasing dollars,” as Hamilton also said than purchase one of the world largest distributors of the stuff?

Dow says the recent formation of Hamilton’s business unit for its $2.5-billion coatings business will enable above market growth in the $40 billion a year coatings sector. Hamilton’s remarks about M&A are directly in line with those of Dow CEO Andrew Liveris. Let’s also not forget Dow has a $9 billion dollar check coming this year from the Saudi’s in conjunction with its 50% interest sale of its Commodity Chemical Business.

The cash with be there with plenty left over to swallow Sherwin.

Let’s also not forget that recently Farallon Capital Management recently picked up 5.2% of Sherwin’s shares. Why? Farellon says their investments are “primarily those in which a known or expected event (a merger, restructuring, recapitalization or other major change) will cause an appreciation in the value of the particular investment.”

Mr. Liveris, lets just get this done….If for no other reason you’ll make me look like a genius 🙂

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long DOW, SHW

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Memo To Dow’s Liveris: Just Buy Sherwin Williams Already!

“We’re looking at gaps in technology offerings and [improving] channels to market. We’re looking at whether we can develop this organically, or through M&A, alliances, and joint ventures. I’m going to work all the levers I can to fill those gaps.” George Hamilton, president of Dow Coating Solutions, a division of Dow Chemical (DOW).

Enough is enough. Shares of Sherwin Williams (SHW) are practically being given away at he current price. For more on that, see this November, 2007 post. Dow has been yammering about expanding it coating business for two years now. Can anyone think of a better way to “improve the customer experience and gain a better understanding of the markets,” and “make it easier for a customer to give us more of their [coatings] purchasing dollars,” as Hamilton also said than purchase one of the world largest distributors of the stuff?

Dow says the recent formation of Hamilton’s business unit for its $2.5-billion coatings business will enable above market growth in the $40 billion a year coatings sector. Hamilton’s remarks about M&A are directly in line with those of Dow CEO Andrew Liveris. Let’s also not forget Dow has a $9 billion dollar check coming this year from the Saudi’s in conjunction with its 50% interest sale of its Commodity Chemical Business.

The cash with be there with plenty left over to swallow Sherwin.

Let’s also not forget that recently Farallon Capital Management recently picked up 5.2% of Sherwin’s shares. Why? Farellon says their investments are “primarily those in which a known or expected event (a merger, restructuring, recapitalization or other major change) will cause an appreciation in the value of the particular investment.”

Mr. Liveris, lets just get this done….If for no other reason you’ll make me look like a genius 🙂

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long DOW, SHW

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Tuesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Huntsman (HUN)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Sepracor (SEPR)- AmTech Research Neutral » Buy
NVIDIA (NVDA)- AmTech Research Neutral » Buy
Massey Energy (MEE)- Caris & Company Above Average » Buy
Colnl BancGrp (CNB)- Stifel Nicolaus Sell » Hold
Orthofix (OFIX)- Leerink Swann Mkt Perform » Outperform
Lincoln Electric (LECO)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Apple (AAPL)- Thomas Weisel Market Weight » Overweight
Westlake Chemical (WLK)- UBS Neutral » Buy
ComScore (SCOR)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Novellus (NVLS)- Lehman Brothers Underweight » Equal-weight
Temple-Inland (TIN)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
KLA-Tencor (KLAC)- Citigroup Hold » Buy

Downgrades
Power Integrations (POWI)- Needham & Co Strong Buy » Buy
Cirrus Logic (CRUS)- Needham & Co Buy » Hold
Emulex (ELX)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Vignette (VIGN)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
Aruba Networks (ARUN)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
AnnTaylor (ANN)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Applied Materials (AMAT)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Ocean Power Tech (OPTT)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Underperform
Columbia Sportswear (COLM)- Citigroup Hold » Sell
Nortel (NT)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Amkor (AMKR)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight
TJX Cos (TJX)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Hartford Financial (HIG)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Estee Lauder (EL)- UBS Buy » Neutral
MGM Mirage (MGM)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform

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Tuesday's Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Huntsman (HUN)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Sepracor (SEPR)- AmTech Research Neutral » Buy
NVIDIA (NVDA)- AmTech Research Neutral » Buy
Massey Energy (MEE)- Caris & Company Above Average » Buy
Colnl BancGrp (CNB)- Stifel Nicolaus Sell » Hold
Orthofix (OFIX)- Leerink Swann Mkt Perform » Outperform
Lincoln Electric (LECO)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Apple (AAPL)- Thomas Weisel Market Weight » Overweight
Westlake Chemical (WLK)- UBS Neutral » Buy
ComScore (SCOR)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Novellus (NVLS)- Lehman Brothers Underweight » Equal-weight
Temple-Inland (TIN)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
KLA-Tencor (KLAC)- Citigroup Hold » Buy

Downgrades
Power Integrations (POWI)- Needham & Co Strong Buy » Buy
Cirrus Logic (CRUS)- Needham & Co Buy » Hold
Emulex (ELX)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Vignette (VIGN)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
Aruba Networks (ARUN)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
AnnTaylor (ANN)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Applied Materials (AMAT)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Ocean Power Tech (OPTT)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Underperform
Columbia Sportswear (COLM)- Citigroup Hold » Sell
Nortel (NT)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Amkor (AMKR)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight
TJX Cos (TJX)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Hartford Financial (HIG)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Estee Lauder (EL)- UBS Buy » Neutral
MGM Mirage (MGM)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform

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Dow 10-K Notables

As promise, I went through Dow’s (DOW) 10-K and here are the relevant items.

To be honest, it was a refreshing read because there really wasn’t anything there that has not been discussed publicly by management at some point. The shot answer to that is that as shareholders were are getting a great level of disclosure and honesty from the stewards of the company.

Some Financials
* In 2007, lowered its debt-to-capital ratio to 32 percent from 34 percent at the end of 2006 and 39 percent at the end of 2005.
* In April 2007, Dow’s Board of Directors increased the quarterly dividend by 12 percent, to an annual rate of $1.68 per share.
* Since January 2006, the Company has raised its dividend by 25 percent.
* In the first quarter of 2007, Dow completed the share repurchase program authorized in July 2005, and commenced purchases under a new $2 billion share buyback program announced in October 2006.
* For the year, the Company invested over $1.4 billion to repurchase 32 million shares, an increase of more than 75 percent over the 18 million shares repurchased in 2006.
* Approximately two-thirds of Dow’s sales are now outside the United States.

Here is a “bet you did not know”. Dow also is engaged in property casualty and reinsurance. From the 10-k, “sales for Unallocated and Other, which primarily relate to the Company’s insurance operations, were $421 million in 2007, compared with $316 million in 2006 and $306 million in 2005.” Yes, I know in the scheme of things it is peanuts and there not any more details in the filing but I is worth noting.

Also, Dow’s “defined contribution” pension plan is not only fully funded but as of 12/13 has a credit balance $526 million, up from a deficit of $890 million in 2006. The date of the funding runs through 2017.

New Ventures in 2007 included:
• Dow started up its first-ever production facility in Russia, located in Kryukovo, outside Moscow. The plant produces STYROFOAM extruded polystyrene insulation boards for the Dow Building Solutions business.
• Dow introduced Propylene Glycol Renewable, a propylene glycol made from the glycerin that is generated during the manufacture of biodiesel, a diesel-fuel alternative produced from vegetable oil.
• Saudi Aramco and Dow signed a Memorandum of Understanding to move forward with their multibillion-dollar joint venture chemicals and plastics production complex near Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia.
• Dow and Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LP announcefd plans for a 50:50 polystyrene and styrene monomer joint venture in the Americas.
• Beijing-based Shenhua Group and Dow agreed to a detailed feasibility study for a coal-to-chemicals joint venture in the Shaanxi Province, China.
• Dow completed the acquisition of Wolff Walsrode AG and certain related affiliates and assets (‘‘Wolff Walsrode’’) and formed Dow Wolff Cellulosics, a $1 billion specialty business focused on cellulosics and related chemistries and serving a broad spectrum of industry sectors.
• Dow AgroSciences and Monsanto signed a corn cross-licensing agreement, which breaks new ground in the commercialization of gene stacking technology.
• The Company signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Brazilian ethanol producer, Crystalsev, to form a joint venture to manufacture polyethylene from sugar cane.
• Dow AgroSciences acquired Agromen Tecnologia, substantially expanding its Brazilian corn seed business. This transaction followed two other related acquisitions in 2007 – The Netherlands-based Duo Maize and Austrian company Maize Technologies International – strengthening the Company’s global corn seed platform.
• Dow’s Polyurethanes Systems business acquired Danish company Edulan A/S, an independent polyurethane systems house specializing in rigid foam and elastomer technologies.
• Dow acquired three leading epoxy systems formulators: UPPC AG in Germany, and POLY-CARB Inc. and GNS Technologies in the United States.
• Dow and Petrochemical Industries Company (‘‘PIC’’) of the State of Kuwait, a wholly owned subsidiary of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, announced plans to form a 50:50 joint venture

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Dow

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Liveris’s Letter (DOW): A Bright Future

I read Liveris’s letter to shareholders today and have some immediate thoughts..

The press has been reporting Liveris’s compensation at $14.9 million but the reality is that only $1.5 million of that is salary, the rest is stock and loads of options that unless the share price turns around, are useless.

That being said, I actually like the fact he owns over 300,000 shares. It makes him one of the larger non-institutional individual shareholders (by far the largest of management) and does ensure that the decisions he makes today, are for the long term health of the company and by default, its share price.

In the letter, Liveris said “First, you can expect us to continue to run a tight ship. This is still a “no excuses” company, and we will manage our day-to-day business to deliver solid financial results. Dow people throughout the world have proven themselves capable of delivering what it takes to succeed.

Second, we will close on our joint venture with PIC and move forward with implementation of our asset-light strategy.

Third, we will continue transforming our earnings profile. I am committed that by the end of 2008 we will have taken another major step in that regard. If we do not find the right acquisition or acquisitions, we reserve the right to initiate a share buyback.

Either way, my commitment to our stockholders is that at the next industry trough, The Dow Chemical Company will have an earnings profi le that is well north of $3 per share and we will provide steady earnings growth beyond that point.”

What to think?

Liveris has been a straight shooter with shareholders since taking over and has yet to not deliver on a stated goal or objective. He has transformed the earnings profile and the upcoming PIC deal will forever alter the company for the better.

With equity earnings in 2007 over in excess of $1 billion for the first time, these JV’s, located in countries with access to cheap raw materials, will become the driver. The end of 2009 and 2010 will see many of the recent announcements come online that will expand this.

In one deal Dow will rid itself of having its fortunes tied to the highly cyclical commodities business and reap a windfall ($9.5 billion) that, based on to date evidence, will be used to reward shareholders.

Let’s not forget that when Liveris took over Dow was saddled with almost $12 billion in long term debt and was a pure commodity play. He has trimmed that debt load 36%, raised the dividend 25%, nearly doubled the cash from operations and made the aforementioned earnings profile change..

It is worth noting that despite the volatility in the earnings for the commodities side, and the explosion in raw material costs, earnings from the performance business grew 8% and the JV earnings have remained steady.

These two segments are Dow’s future and it is bright.

Now, the stock price……

Berkshire’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett has always said that “price is what you pay, value is what you get”. It is one of my personal favorites because it reminds us that the price of a stock and what you are getting for that price are not always commensurate. There are times you pay in excess of what you are receiving in value and times you pay far less.

This is one of those times.

I have no idea what the price of Dow’s stock will be in the future. I do know that, buying the stock at its current levels, yielding a growing 4.5% is a wise move long term. With earnings expectations above $3.50 for 2010 (the next expected trough), Dow currently sits at about 10 times those earnings. Should Liveris’s “well north” mean $3.90 a share or higher, then we have a 4.5% yielding company sitting at 8 to 9 times earnings…

All this does not take into account the endless possibilities of $9.5 billion coming into the bank this year….

I will dig through the 10-k this week and see what I can find..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Dow

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Fridays Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Smith Micro Software (SMSI)- Northland Securities Market Perform » Outperform
Canadian Solar (CSIQ)- Broadpoint Capital Neutral » Strong Buy
Endo Pharm (ENDP)- Roth Capital Hold » Buy
CSG Systems (CSGS)- BMO Capital Markets Underperform » Market Perform
Alum. Corp China (ACH)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
ICICI Bank (IBN)- HSBC Securities Underweight » Neutral
Kilroy Realty (KRC)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
SL Green Rlty (SLG)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Boston Prpts (BXP)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Corp Office Props (OFC)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
ProLogis (PLD)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Top Pick
Digital Realty Trust (DLR)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Top Pick
China Unicom (CHU)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
DISH Network (DISH)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
Tenaris (TS)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
Forward Air (FWRD )- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Fluor (FLR)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
McDermott (MDR)- Citigroup Hold » Buy

Downgrades
AmeriCredit (ACF)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
Schnitzer Steel (SCHN)- Longbow Buy » Neutral
Zumiez (ZUMZ)- Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
Marchex (MCHX)- Stanford Research Buy » Hold
S M & A Corp (WINS)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
Coldwater Creek (CWTR)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
NOVA Chemicals (NCX)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
BioMed Realty (BMR)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Maguire Properties (MPG)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform
First Potomac Realty (FPO)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform
Duke Realty (DRE)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Underperform
Brandywine Realty (BDN)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Underperform
Zumiez (ZUMZ)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
China Netcom (CN)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
MFA Mortgage (MFA)- Keefe Bruyette Outperform » Mkt Perform
Anworth Mortgage (ANH)- Keefe Bruyette Outperform » Mkt Perform
Saks (SKS)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral

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Dow Chemical Creates Shopping Cart

After announcing the feasibility study of the coal chemical joint venture between Dow Chemical (DOW) and Shenhua Group Corporation Limited in China is likely to be submitted to the National Development and Reform in early 2009, Dow announced a “reorganization of units for review”.

The new group, Dow Portfolio Optimization, will contain various businesses with the intent on finding how to best maximize their “long-term value to the company – whether that be through realignment to other Dow businesses, joint ventures or divestitures” said DOW.

George Biltz, currently the head of Dow’s specialty plastics and elastomers portfolio, will head the group. The products in it will be the SARAN speciality-films brand, polycarbonate, compounds and blends, synthetic rubber and specialty copolymers. Other businesses are expected to be added “as they are assessed for strategic alignment with Dow’s transformational strategy.

In short, “we are welcoming bidders”. My guess is DOW would love to sell these into a JV like they did with their commodity business lately.

It is estimated DOW will end up investing $5 billion in the Chinese JV and while that may seem like a lot, it is just over 1/2 the $9.5 billion they are getting from the commodity sale. Dow has promised that in 2008-09 that if they cannot find a place for the money, they will repurchase shares. $9.5 billion represents 1/4 of the company’s current market cap.

DOW will want to do both. Liveris has made it a mission of his to solidify the company’s balance sheet and he has succeeded in making it better than it has been in decades. That being said, do not expect him to pull a Home Depot (HD) and load it back up with debt to repurchase shares. What will do instead is shed low margin cash sucking product lines to repurchase the shares.

Personally I would love to see a much higher dividend so my DRIP plan pushes more shares my way before earnings explode after 2010. We’ll see.. Liveris has not let me down yet..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long DOW, None

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Monday’s Links

Citi, Crox, DOW, Goldman

– Part 2 in Chad Brand’s Citi analysis.

– Crox at $28? The Master’s think that’s a Crock

– Looks like the MSM is finally recognizing what Dow Chemical is doing

– Goldman Sachs want your distressed mortgage debt..

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McNamee Claims to Have Evidence Against Clemens

The former trainer of Roger Clemens, Brian McNamee claimed in front of congress moments ago to have syringes from his injections of Roger Clemens of HGH and steroids that, according to him, after chemical analysis will prove his assertions

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Sherwin Williams Continues Earnings Diversification

While the market may lump Sherwin Williams (SHW) in with the other “housing stocks” both today’s news and their earnings for the past year suggest otherwise…

Can anyone name a “housing stock” that saw earnings in 2007 grow double digits and project further earnings increases in 2008? Industries with huge housing exposure from builders, banks, chemical makers, wall board suppliers, insulation makers, mortgage companies all saw earnings decimated in 2007 and 2008’s outlook is spotty at best.

Who has bucked the trend? Sherwin Williams. Why? The US housing market is not the overwhelming driver of earnings at the company, despite what the market thinks.

In the past year, Sherwin-Williams has acquired paint and coatings companies in India, Uruguay and Mexico. As of Monday you can add Asia to the list.

Sherwin announced that it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire the Liquid Coatings Subsidiaries of Inchem Holdings of Inchem Holdings International Limited headquartered in Singapore. Terms were not released.

Inchem produces coatings applied to wood and plastic products in Asia. These waterborne, solvent-based, and ultraviolet (UV) curable coatings are applied to furniture, cabinets, flooring, and electronic products that are manufactured both for export as well as domestic sale. The coatings are made and sold in China, Vietnam and Malaysia, and distributed to 15 other countries throughout Asia.

CEO Christopher M. Connor said “this acquisition reaffirms our commitment to growing globally through organic growth accelerated by strategically important acquisitions. We are pleased to bring Inchem, a well respected company throughout Asia, it’s plants in China, Vietnam, and Malaysia, and most importantly its people into the Sherwin-Williams family.”

George E. Heath, President and General Manager of Sherwin-Williams Chemical Coatings Division, stated, “we continue to strengthen our growing global platform to better serve the needs of manufacturers in North America and Asia. Inchem supports this mission with great plants, products, and people throughout Southeast Asia.”

Many folks are advising to “wait” before buying shares in Sherwin. Here is the problem with that. My fear is that those who wait will find themselves wishing they had not as Sherwin becomes an enticing buyout prospect daily for a large buyer like a Dow Chemical (DOW) who could easily swallow the company. With only a $6.6 billion market cap, Sherwin is very easily digestible. Sorry James 🙂

Every few months Sherwin does a deal that further shrinks its exposure to the US housing market. Monday’s news is just another example.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long Sherwin, Dow

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