ETFC – Page 5 – ValuePlays

Etrade (ETFC) is essentially two businesses. The first is a very healthy brokerage/market making business. The second is an ill-timed foray into the mortgage backed securities markets. Losses in that area have brought the company to its knees so to speak. But, if they can make it through (I expect they will), the return for those buying now will be fantastic.

Let’s look at the loan portfolio (all quotes from most recent 10Q at end of post):

Regarding Loan Loss Provisions:

Provision for loan losses increased $85.4 million to $404.5 million and $305.5 million to $858.5 million for the three and six months ended June 30, 2009, respectively, compared to the same periods in 2008. The increase in the provision for loan losses was related primarily to deterioration in the performance of our one- to four-family and home equity loan portfolios. We believe the deterioration in both of these portfolios was caused by several factors, including: home price depreciation in key markets; growing inventories of unsold homes; rising foreclosure rates; significant contraction in the availability of credit; and a general decline in economic growth. In addition, the combined impact of home price depreciation and the reduction of available credit made it increasingly difficult for borrowers to refinance existing loans. Although we expect these factors will cause the provision for loan losses to continue at historically high levels in future periods, the level of provision for loan losses in the second quarter of 2009 represents the third consecutive quarter in which the provision for loan losses has declined when compared to the prior quarter. While we cannot state with certainty that this trend will continue, we believe it is a positive indicator that our loan portfolio may be stabilizing.

Here is the current loan portfolio (click to enlarge)

Here is the key chart regarding the performance (click to enlarge):

If this trend continues into Q3, Etrade fortunes improve markedly.

Loans, net decreased 10% to $21.9 billion at June 30, 2009 from $24.5 billion at December 31, 2008. This decline was due primarily to our strategy of reducing balance sheet risk by allowing our loan portfolio to pay down. We do not expect to grow our loan portfolio for the foreseeable future. In addition, we plan to allow our home equity loans to pay down, resulting in an overall decline in the balance of the loan portfolio.

Loans held-for-sale of $12.6 million as of June 30, 2009 represents loans originated through, but not yet purchased by, a third party company that we partnered with to provide access to real estate loans for our customers. The product is offered as a convenience to our customers and is not one of our primary product offerings. The third party company providing this product performs all processing and underwriting of these loans and is responsible for the credit risk associated with these loans, which minimizes our assumption of any of he typical risks commonly associated with mortgage lending. There is a short period of time after closing of the loans in which we record the originated loan as held-for-sale prior to the third party company purchasing the loan.

We have a credit default swap (“CDS”) on a portion of our first-lien residential real estate loan portfolio through a synthetic securitization structure that provides, for a fee, an assumption by a third party of a portion of the credit risk related to the underlying loans. As of June 30, 2009, the balance of the loans covered by the CDS was $2.6 billion, on which $17.8 million in losses have been recognized. The CDS provides protection for losses in excess of $4.0 million, but not to exceed approximately $30.3 million. During the three months ended June 30, 2009, we began to receive cash recoveries from the CDS for amounts reported in excess of the $4.0 million threshold. We expect to recognize the remaining benefit over the next twelve months, which is reflected in the allowance for loan losses as of June 30, 2009.
Deposits

Regarding the balance sheet:

The decrease in total assets was attributable primarily to a decrease of $2.5 billion in loans, net, offset by an increase of $1.7 billion in cash. The decrease in loans, net was due to our strategy of reducing balance sheet risk by allowing our loan portfolio to pay down. For the foreseeable future, we plan to allow our home equity loans to pay down, resulting in an overall decline in the balance of the loan portfolio. For the remainder of 2009, we also plan to allow total assets to decline in order to release additional regulatory capital which we are required to hold against these assets.

The decrease in total liabilities was attributable primarily to the decrease in wholesale borrowings which was partially offset by an increase in customer payables and deposits. The decrease in wholesale borrowings was a result of paying down our FHLB advances and securities sold under agreements to repurchase in the first half of 2009. Customer payables increased due to higher trading activity during the first half of 2009 and net new brokerage customer acquisition. While our deposits increased by $287.6 million during the first half of 2009, we expect these balances, particularly the non-sweep deposit balances, to decrease over the remainder of 2009 as we focus on decreasing total assets.

Here is the Corp. debt picture (click to enlarge):

While not a huge fans of debt, Etrade has done a good job extending that debt into the future in which at such time they ought to have rid themselves of most of the RMBS portfolio freeing up reserves held for losses on it for debt repayment.

Management believes that our common stock offerings combined with the expected completion of the pending debt exchange offer, will substantially improve the regulatory capital levels at E*TRADE Bank as well as significantly enhance parent company liquidity, especially through the end of 2011. As a result, we believe we will be in a position to take advantage of favorable market conditions with regard to any additional capital planning actions, such as further debt-for-equity exchanges, additional cash capital raising activities or sales of any non-core assets.

During the fourth quarter of 2008, we applied to the U.S. Treasury for funding under the Troubled Asset Relief Program (“TARP”) Capital Purchase Program. We continue to view TARP funding as a possible component of our capital planning program. We cannot predict when or if our application will be acted upon. However, given the success of our capital raising efforts to date, we believe that our financial health is not dependent upon receiving TARP funding.

What to do? First, this is only for those with patience and strong stomachs. Loan portfolio’s take time to wind down and the ride in doing so is a bumpy one. Because of that, the ride will be rocky. But in Etrades case, they have a stable and strong brokerage business that is adding new accounts at a very healthy pace. That ought to buffer investors and its performance will begin to take more precedence as the loan portfolio is wound down.

I bought yesterday at $1.40 a share. I will be watching one thing. The loan portfolio. If it continues it recent improvement, the stock will appreciate. If it falters, I will pull the trigger on it. Simple…

Another side point, as Etrade lower is loan risk, priced at this level it does become dramatically more attractive to a potential suitor. While I would not invest based on this possible event alone, one does have to take it into account here in conjunction with other factors

Full 10Q
Etrade Q2 10Q

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

I had to read this three times before I could actually believe these clown are serious. You will find the man who made the offer’s contact info at the end.

Philip Morris International (PM) has been notified of an unsolicited “mini-tender offer” by TRC Capital Corporation to purchase up to 2.0 million shares, or approximately 0.09%, of Philip Morris International stock for $49.25 per share.

OK. Let’s just assume that is not a 3.2% DISCOUNT to the price I could sell it in the market today. Let’s also assume we are not looking at 15% to 20% EPS growth in the future. Let’s also forget that there is no multi-billion dollar buyback being exercised by the company as I write. While we are at it, we should also ignore that it is a market leader (and growing) on a massive international stage. Of course we also need to eliminate the fact based on current EPS the stocks trades at 15 times earnings which essentially is a discount to it growth rate.

What is maddening is just how stupid they think PM investors are? We have waited for years for this spin from Altria (MO) and now they actually think we are going to plop our shares over to them at a discount to current prices?

You may contact the man who made the offer, TRC Capital Corporation Lorne H. Albaum CEO (416) 304-1932 ext.223, and tell him yourself “I got your tender offer right here pal!”.

Here is a brief description of the company. The fact he made the offer means he thinks the price is going higher. He is just trying to take advantage of investor who may be confused by the “mini-offer” and think the company may be sold.

I spoke to Mr. Albaum Friday. He claims he is going to hold shares for a “long term investment”. He also said that shares tendered by the 29th would become his then and he would have “2 or 3 days” to actually pay for them. When I said, “well, if the price stays the same as it is today, you could essentially sell all of the 2 million shares (assuming he gets them all) the 29th and never pay a penny and pocket $2 to $3 million dollars”. After an awkward pause, he stammered, “that is a possibility”.

Or, he could sell 1/2 and then keep the other half after which he would have paid nothing for them. When I asked if he was going to keep all the shares he said “he would have to look at that depending how much capital was at risk”. Short answer? No.

He said the offer is made for people who own “10 to 12 shares and the offer may pocket them more money than paying a broker a commission to sell them”. Well, Etrade (ETFC) charges me $9.99 a trade and even at that, I come out ahead of Mr. Albaum’s price if I only had 10 shares. I asked him what other scenario’s there were and he said “numerous” but did not give any.

If you are contacted about this please ignore it.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long PM, MO, None