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Altria Releases Spin Details

Altria (MO) just released the spin information we have been waiting for.

PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL SPIN-OFF EFFECTIVE MARCH 28, 2008

* Identifies new Board of Directors post-spin for both Altria and PMI
* Sets spin-off share distribution ratio of one-for-one

* Announces dividend policies, initial dividend rates and share repurchase programs

— Altria dividend policy anticipates payout ratio of 75% post-spin

— Altria initial post-spin annualized dividend rate of $1.16 per common share

— Altria post-spin share repurchase program of $7.5 billion over 2 years

— PMI dividend policy anticipates payout ratio of 65% post-spin

— PMI initial post-spin annualized dividend rate of $1.84 per common share

— PMI post-spin share repurchase program of $13.0 billion over 2 years

* To commence tender offer shortly for all outstanding Altria notes

* Forecasts 2008 earnings per share growth rates
— Altria 2008 full-year diluted earnings per share from continuing operations projected to grow approximately 9% to 11% from a 2007 adjusted base of $1.50, excluding PMI, which will be accounted for as a discontinued operation for the full-year 2008

— PMI 2008 full-year diluted earnings per share from continuing operations projected to grow approximately 12% to 14% at current exchange rates, from a 2007 pro-forma adjusted base of $2.78

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long MO

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Altria Earnings: One Question, The Spin

Altria (MO) reports later today.

Expectations for Q4 EPS are 97c on revenue of $9.19B. The consensus range for EPS is 96c to $1.01, and the consensus range for revenue is $8.9B to $9.62B. Comparisons to 2006 are skewed due to the Kraft (KFT) spin last year.

The spin. That is all we really want to know. I detailed the preliminary spin plans in October.

When will it happen and when will the re-capitalize both companies. What will the dividends be and how many shares will they repurchase. Do I expect to get answers to all those, no, but we usually get some hints later on the call.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long MO

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Top Stories for the Week at VIN

Here is the weeks “Top 10” at Value Investing News

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Weekend Housekeeping

**Adam Warner, who does one of mu favorite web items, “Doin’ it Bloggystyle” over at Minyanville.com has put together a great “Miyanville Blog” that I am thrilled to be part of. Please check it out.

** Week 1 is in the books over at the SINletter.com “Blogger Contest” and so far, I am 3rd out of 24 bloggers. Two big events happen in January, Citi announces earnings the 15th and Altria’s board meets to announce the PMI spin. The outcome of those events ought to determine to remainder of the contest for me. We’ll see.

Disclosure:

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"Fast Money" for Thursday


Thursday’s Picks
Jeff Macke recommends shorting Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) Open $28.36

Guy Adami likes Intel (INTC) Open $25.35

Tim Seymour prefers Posco (PKX) Open $146.46

Jon Najarian recommends shorting KLA-Tencor (KLAC) Open $46.54

Wednesday’s Results
Brian Schaeffer, Van Der Moolen Capital Markets Managing Director, recommends buying Nordstrom (JWN) Open $36.73 Close $35.42 LOSS

Carter Worth, Oppenheimer Chief Market Technician likes Altria (MO) Open $75.58 Close $74.93 LOSS

Jon Najarian prefers Starbucks (SBUX) Open $20.47 Close $19.31 LOSS

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 0-1
Jon Najarian= 0-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%
Karen Finerman= 40-30 = 57%

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SINLetter: Top Financial Bloggers Face-Off

I have been invited to participate in a stock picking contest for Q1, 2008. I normally do not do these because to be honest I have no idea what stocks are going to do in only three months but I do like the work Asif does at the SINletter so I will give it a shot.

Here are the rules of the contest:
1. Stock contest starts on January 2nd, 2008 and ends on March 31st, 2008.
2. Only stocks that trade above $1 at the time of selection and that are listed either on the NYSE, Nasdaq or the American Stock Exchange will be accepted (sorry no pink sheet or bulletin board stocks this time around).
3. You can pick ETFs and closed-end funds.
4. Regular dividend payments will not be taken into account both on the long side or the short side.
5. The stock contest price would be the highest price of the day for long stocks and lowest price of the day for short stocks if you pick the stock during a trading session. If you pick a stock after hours or over a weekend, the next trading session will be used to determine the highest price of the day for long stocks and lowest price of the day for short stocks.
6. It is not possible to use margin or leverage.
7. The value of S&P 500 you enter will be utilized as a tie breaker in case two or more contestants have the same returns at the end of the contest.
8. Because of shipping costs, this contest is currently only open to residents of the United States. If all you care about is bragging rights and not the prizes then please feel to participate irrespective of your location.
9. One entry per email address.
10. Each winner will be contacted a maximum of three times and in case we don’t receive a response within 5 days, we will contact the next highest ranked contestant.
11. We reserve the right to disquality any entry at any time at our sole discretion.
12. We reserve the right to change these terms and conditions at any time.
13. This contest is for entertainment purposes only and we assume no liabilities for inaccurate information entered by us or contest participants, typographical errors, programming errors or equipment malfunctions.
14. We reserve the right to stop accepting new entries at any point.

That being said, here are my picks and a brief reasoning:

1- Altria (MO)
PMI ought to be spun off in Q1 and the massive share buybacks for both entities will be announced. If the economy does happen to look as though it will slide into recession, investors will flock to MO as a defensive play.

2- Citigroup (C)
What else could Citi say that will drop the stock price even further? Other than they are closing shop, I do not know. Hedgies and funds all sold out of Citi for the end of the year window dressing. That being said, it is dirt cheap and they recognize this and ought to begin buying in Q1.

3- Starbucks (SBUX)– Short
Starbucks faces a slowing economy, rising input prices, relentless competition and a management team that seems to recognize none of the above. Add them up and spot the stock a price 26 times forward earnings and shareholders are not in for a “Happy New Year.”

You can track the contest results here:

Disclosure: Long Citi and Altria. No position in Starbucks

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"Fast Money" for Wednesday


Wednesday’s Picks
Brian Schaeffer, Van Der Moolen Capital Markets Managing Director, recommends buying Nordstrom (JWN) Open $36.73

Carter Worth, Oppenheimer Chief Market Technician likes Altria (MO) Open $75.58

Jon Najarian prefers Starbucks (SBUX) Open $20.47

Monday’s Results
Pete Najarian likes Caterpillar(CAT) Open $73.16 Close $72.55 LOSS

Karen Finerman says short Big Lots (BIG) Open $15.77 Close $16.02 GAIN

Guy Adami recommends Deere & Co (DE) Open $92.28 Close $93.16 GAIN

Results since 6/21/2007:

Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
John Najarian= 13-4 = 76%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%
Tim Seymore= 7-7 = 50%
Karen Finerman= 40-30 = 57%
Stacey Briere-Gilbert= 3-0 = 100
Ned Riley= 1-0 = 100%
Carter Worth= 0-1 = 0%

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"Fast Money" for Tuesday


Tuesday’s Picks
Guy Adami prefers Holly Corp (HOC) as a refiner play.Open $50.20

Karen Finerman likes kidney dialysis provider DaVita (DVA). Open $55.72

Pete Najarian thinks ASML Holdings (ASML) is a short. Open $33.05

Monday’s Results

Guy Adami and Pete Najarian recommended Biogen (BIIB).Open $58.79 Close $55.72 LOSS

Karen Finerman preferred Altria (MO).Open $76.82 Close $76.02 LOSS

Guy Adami= 54-44 = 56%
John Najarian= 13-4 = 76%
Jeff Macke= 58-39 = 62%
Pete Najarian= 44-40 = 53%
Tim Seymore= 6-7 = 57%
Karen Finerman= 36-30 = 54%
Stacey Briere-Gilbert= 3-0 = 100
Ned Riley= 1-0 = 100%
Carter Worth= 0-1 = 0%

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"Fast Money" for Monday


Monday’s Picks

Guy Adami and Pete Najarian recommended Biogen (BIIB).Open $58.79

Karen Finerman preferred Altria (MO).Open $76.82

Friday’s Results

Jeff Macke likes Corning (GLW). Open $24.70 Close $24.19 LOSS

Guy Adami thinks Biogen (BIIB) is a buy on its recent dip.Open $57.91 Close $58.79 LOSS

For the second day in a row Karen Finerman recommends shorting MBIA (MBI).Open $29.51 Close $27.60 GAIN

Pete Najarian prefers Energy Conversion Devices (ENER).Open $32.45 Close $32.95 GAIN

Guy Adami= 54-43 = 57%
John Najarian= 13-4 = 76%
Jeff Macke= 58-39 = 62%
Pete Najarian= 44-39 = 55%
Tim Seymore= 6-7 = 57%
Karen Finerman= 36-29 = 56%
Stacey Briere-Gilbert= 3-0 = 100
Ned Riley= 1-0 = 100%
Carter Worth= 0-1 = 0%

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Merry Chrsitmas Altria Shareholders

Altria’s (MO) Phillip Morris USA received $1.2 billion in funds held in an escrow account under the bond stipulation in the Engle smoking and health class action in Florida today.

PM USA also said that it will immediately seek the discharge of a $100 million appeal bond in the same case.

$1.2 billion will repurchase a whole bunch of shares after the PMI spin is complete.

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"Fast Money" for Monday


Monday’s Picks
Jeff Macke will be looking for a dip in Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS).Open $28.96

Guy Adami likes Lazard (LAZ).Open $43.97

Karen Finerman recommends shorting Hovnanian (HOV).Open $9.12

Pete Najarian thinks DaVita (DVA) is a buy .Open $59.54

Friday’s Results
Jeff Macke recommended buying PowerShares QQQ Trust. Open $49.82 Close $50.28 GAIN

Guy Adami preferred U.S. Bancorp (USB).Open $31.60 Close $31.43 LOSS

Karen Finerman said to play defense with Altria (MO).Open $72.27 Close $73.18 GAIN

Pete Najarian liked Isis Pharmaceuticals (ISIS) Open $16.44 Close $16.75 GAIN

Since my tracking began on 6/21 (1-1 means one up pick and one down pick and no results from my vacation weeks). The percentage is the percentage of successful picks

Guy Adami= 45-29 = 61%
John Najarian= 13-4 = 76%
Jeff Macke= 50-33 = 61%
Pete Najarian= 35-33 = 52%
Tim Seymore= 5-5 = 50%
Karen Finerman= 28-18 = 63%
Stacey Briere-Gilbert= 3-0 = 100
Ned Riley= 1-0 = 100%
Carter Worth= 0-1 = 0%

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"Fast Money" for Friday


Friday’s Picks
Jeff Macke recommended buying PowerShares QQQ Trust. Open $49.82

Guy Adami preferred U.S. Bancorp (USB).Open $31.60

Karen Finerman said to play defense with Altria (MO).Open $72.27

Pete Najarian liked Isis Pharmaceuticals (ISIS) Open $16.44

Thursday’s Results

Short the Dow with the (DOG), Jeff Macke said. Open $59.98 Close $60.30 GAIN

Pete Najarian picked EMC (EMC)= Open $19.57 Close $19.32 LOSS

Karen Finneran liked American Eagle (AEO). Open $22.81 Close $22.46 LOSS

Guy Adami said buy EMC (EMC). Open $19.57 Close $10.32 LOSS

Since my tracking began on 6/21 (1-1 means one up pick and one down pick and no results from my vacation weeks). The percentage is the percentage of successful picks

Guy Adami= 45-28 = 62%
John Najarian= 13-4 = 76%
Jeff Macke= 49-33 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 34-33 = 51%
Tim Seymore= 5-5 = 50%
Karen Finerman= 27-18 = 62%
Stacey Briere-Gilbert= 3-0 = 100
Ned Riley= 1-0 = 100%
Carter Worth= 0-1 = 0%

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Altia Enters Cigar Market

In a deal that will give it over 1/2 the US machine made cigar market, Altria (MO) has agreed to pay $2.9 billion in cash for cigar maker John Middleton, the maker of Black & Mild.

Volume for this segment of the cigar market for 2007 is estimated at 5.3 billion cigars, according to Altria and they estimate the growth rate for large machine-made cigars was 4 percent annually from 2003 to 2007. This contrasts to the 3% to 4% annual decline in US cigarette market of which Altria’s Marlboro brand holds over 50% market share.

John Middleton’s revenue is expected to reach $360 million in 2007 and operating income to hit about $183 million. Over the 2003 to 2007 period, operating revenues and operating income are estimated to have grown at compound annual rates of approximately 10% and 13%Altria said it expects the deal to close by the end of the year and add to be “modestly accretive” to 2008 earnings while generating an “attractive double-digit economic return.” The real advantage will be the ability to use Altria’s existing distribution and sales network to increase sales and dramatically decrease costs. No figures were put on that though.

This marks the second tobacco growth category Altria has entered full force. Late summer Altria announced they were entering the smokeless market with a Marlboro “chew”. The Middleton purchase was “”being undertaken to enhance our long-term growth momentum in the U.S. market and create shareholder value. The acquisition is both strategically compelling and financially attractive. It fits squarely with our announced strategy to grow our U.S. tobacco business beyond cigarettes and complements our recent initiatives in the smokeless category.” according to Michael Szymanczyk, chief executive of Philip Morris USA.

How can you not like this move? Cash deal, no debt, immediate earnings benefit and a market leader is a growing segment of a highly profitable industry.

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Altria Shareholders Need to Watch Exxon’s Supreme Court Appeal

Chief Justice John Roberts Supreme Court has elected to increase it’s review of punitive damages against corporations by hearing an appeal of a $2.5 billion award against Exxon Mobil (XOM) over the 1989 Valdez oil spill in Alaska. Altria (MO) shareholders ought to be very interested.

The award against Exxon, the largest ever by a U.S. federal court is the final major litigation left from the Valdez oil spill. To date Exxon has paid more than $3.4 billion in claims and fines tied to the spill, which dumped 258,000 barrels of oil into the Prince William Sound after the Valdez oil tanker ran aground.

The appeal, which is supported by business groups, challenges the punitive award with several legal arguments, chiefly, that a federal appeals court ignored both recent punitive damages precedent and improperly allowed the damages award under maritime law.

In recent years, the Supreme Court has put restrictions on the size of punitive damages awards and limited the use of awards to punish broader conduct outside the scope of a particular case. It is clear that there is a sea change underway in this area. Once used to punish and essentially destroy a business, the Roberts court has taken a microscope to the issue of what it views as “grossly excessive damages” and has said that these types of awards “violate due process”.

The last appeal ruling the court made in this area was last February when they set aside a nearly $80 million judgment against Altria awarded to the widow of a smoker in Oregon.

This has already filtered down to the state level. On July 6, 2006, the Florida Supreme Court decertified the Engle class-action litigation and reversed the state court jury’s award of $145 billion in punitive damages because, as a matter of law, the award was “improper and excessive.” The Florida Supreme Court also concluded that certain issues decided by the Engle trial jury may be considered as resolved for any potential future cases filed by former class members.

On March 22, 2002, an Oregon jury awarded a Mr. Schwarz $168,500 in compensatory damages, and $150,000,000 in punitive damages, which the court reduced to $100,000,000. On May 17, 2006, the Oregon Court of Appeals found no error in the award of compensatory damages, but vacated the punitive damages award and ordered a new trial to determine the amount of punitive damages.

The Exxon case will further define the scope of punitive damages available to plaintiffs in cases and based on history, that will be very good for Altria and its shareholders. The litigation environment has not been this good for Altria in over a decade now and the valuation cap that has been on shares for that time period is beginning to dissipate. Once the litigation risk to shares is clearly defined, and the Roberts court is slowly doing that, one can expect PE expansion in shares, lifting them higher.

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Reynold’s Results Bode Well for Altria

A dig into the recently released results buy Reynolds American (RAI) should be very encouraging to Altria (MO)shareholders

Back in April I said that Altria would not make an attempt to purchase UST (UST) for it smokeless products and instead would capitalize on the Marlboro brand name a produce one themselves. In August, when Altria announced they would do just that (produce a Marlboro product) I said that the smokeless product would be a huge hit in the growing “chew” market and provide a key drive for Phillip Morris USA going forward.

So what about Reynolds results should Altria holders like? On the conference call discussing their Q3 results. Reynolds commented on their smokeless product “Conwood Company, the nation’s second-largest maker of smokeless-tobacco products, had operating earnings of $90 million, up 18%, boosted by sales of Grizzly moist snuff. Conwood’s moist-snuff volume grew more than 12% from the prior year quarter.

Driving Conwood’s growth were additional gains on Grizzly, which continues to be the growth leader in the moist-snuff category. Grizzly’s volume was up 18%, more than twice the growth rate of the moist-snuff category. As a result, Grizzly’s share of market grew quarter-over-quarter and sequentially to 21.23%.

To further build on Grizzly’s momentum, Conwood will begin testing two new styles, Grizzly Pouches and Grizzly Snuff.”

Smokless is the only tobacco segment growing and it is growing at a very healthy clip. It is to the point now that companies are aggressively pursuing additional products to sell and the market is accepting them. Reynolds success will be Altria’s. When you have the number one tobacco product in Marlboro with almost 50% market share, any new product bearing that name will be used by consumers.

On another note, after the PMI spin, can’t we just change the name back to Phillip Morris?

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