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Top Stories for the Week at VIN

Here are the week’s top stories at Value Investing News

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Lampert Adds More AutoNation Shares Wednesday

Sears Holdings (SHLD) Chairman Edward Lampert bough an additional 631,000 shares of AutoNation (AN) for his hedge fund ESL Investments on Wednesday, 2/13 at prices between $15.40 and $15.55 a share.

He now controls 60,494,479 shares or 33.5% of the total.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHLD, None

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MBIA and Ambac: Wow

So, MBIA (MBI) has now gone as far as to ask Congress to “reign in” Bill Ackman. I thought it was a joke until I actually read it.

First things first. I am going to come to the defense of Herb Greenberg. Anyone who read here knows Herb is not one of my favorite bloggers after his “Worst CEO” post on Sears Holdings (SHLD) Eddie Lampert. That being said, if I am going to jump on someone when I think they are “out there”, I should do the same to others when they are.

Herb wrote a column today about the MBIA and Ambac. To me, the article made perfect sense but reading the comments, you would have though Herb just made the whole thing up. Odd

Let’s go back. Ackman first began shorting the two in 2002. Now, the media constantly says Ackman has shorted MBIA and Ambac when in actuality, he has said countless times he is short the Holding Companies of both organizations. The Holding companies rely on funding from both Ambac and MBIA. Ackman’s bet is that the insurance regulators will require both company’s to suspend dividends to the holding companies so they are able to meet their capital requirements thus starving the holdings companies of income and initiating their extinction.

MBIA actually declined to have an open phone on their last earnings call. They instead chose to take type questions to answer. This was done to enable them to cherry pick which questions to answer and which to decline.

Here is the thing, has anything Ackman said would happen not? Has there been any insider buying in shares of either company? Has management come out and done anything to prove him wrong other than call him names?

Haven’t folks like Warren Buffett and Wilbur Ross looked into both organizations and said, “we’ll pass”?

I am having a hard time thinking of the last time Ackman exited an investment on the losing end. Management at both companies can do one thing to prove him wrong, produce results contrary to his predictions. To date, they haven’t.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): None

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Value Investors Buying Sears Holdings Shares

Famed value investors have been buying shares of Sears Holdings (SHLD).

Mohnish Pabri, Managing Partner of Pabrai Investment Funds swapped shares in Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)”B” shares for 516,210 shares of Sears at an average price of about $118 a share.

Bruce Berkowitz, the founder and the Managing Member of the Fairholme Fund added an additional 3.2 million shares of the retailer bringing his total to 6.176 million shares.

Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman (ever heard about him?) increased his stake in Sears to 6.15 million shares from 5 million shares last quarter.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHLD, None

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Lampert Adds to AutoNation Stake

In an SEC filing moments ago, Sears Holdings (SHLD) Chairman Eddie Lampert disclosed he purchased an additional 1,224,997 shares of AutoNation (AN) on Feb. 11th and 12th at prices between $15.18 and $15.55 through his RBS Partners hedge fund.

This brings Lampert and his affiliates ownership to 59,931,415 or 33% of the 180 million outstanding shares.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Whitney Tilson on Sears Holdings

“What you have (in Sears Holdings (SHLD)) is a collection of brands and assets”, Whitney Tilson. Amen Whitney.. Watch the video..

Here is the video from last week I referenced in yesterday’s post.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long Sears, Fan of Whitney’s

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Another Misleading Sears Holdings Article

This one surprised me. The WSJ ran an article Friday that made things at Sears (SHLD) look dire. Let’s take a closer look.

A summation of the article is pretty simple. Sears’ cash will be far below last years levels when they report and thus, investors will run for the exits.

The article starts off with this quote, “Now, some analysts wonder whether falling sales, slimmer profit margins and other woes are causing cash flows to decline to a level that could hinder a turnaround.”

The very reason Sears split into 5 separate entities was to avoid this very scenario. It will allow each division to pursue deals outside of the current locations. This was witness just last week by the Diehard deal with Orange County Choppers. I am having trouble figuring out what any cash deterioration at Sears would hinder more deal like this. I can easily see how they will expand sales of those items and actually increase cash. I can also easily picture licensing deals for Craftsmen tools and Kenmore appliance that throw more cash Lampert’s way.

Later in the article comes this gem “…Sears to draw on a $4 billion credit line. But this might not be received well by creditors, especially if it looks like the borrowing is being done to fund further stock buybacks.”

Now, has Lampert ever borrowed to repurchase shares? Ever? If we go just the end of Q3, Lampert had $734 million of cash in hand. The company said that, as of Jan. 11, it had used $513 million of that cash to repurchase stock in Q4 and as of Nov. 27, it had paid back a $625 million credit facility.

Both of these were done from cash from operations. If Lampert had ANY inclination to repurchase shares with debt, he surely would not have paid off the credit facility. Lampert has been constantly paying off debt since taking over Sears and that is the reason the company has the best balance sheet of its competitors (JC Penny (JCP), Macy’s (M), Home Depot (HD) and Kohl’s (KSS)). As a matter of fact, since taking over Sears, Lampert has reduced its outstanding debt every year and FY 2008 that just ended will be no different.

The article also laments the fact that cash is lower this year than at the same time last. But, it casually misses the fact that Lampert has repurchased almost $3 billion in stock in the last 9 months vs $800 million total the previous year. Now, had he not done that, the cash balances would be similar.

The same people who are wringing their hands over the cash account today at $1 billion are the same ones who were complaining when it was at $4 billion and Lampert was just sitting on it. Back then they were championing Lampert to spend it on a Home Depot, Radioshack (RSH) or Macy’s acquisition. In retrospect, any one of those moves at the prices they were at then would be a complete catastrophe today. I wonder were all the articles pointing that out are?

So, Lampert invested that cash on Sears by repurchasing stock. By doing so, he has increased shareholders percentage ownership of earnings in excess of 13% rather than destroying it with an abysmally timed dilutive acquisition to appease folks. Thank you Eddie.

The essence of this article is based on a flawed premise. It is a bit like speculating about the cash drain at Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) should Warren Buffett try to outbid Microsoft (MSFT) for Yahoo (YHOO). It will never happen so making the speculation is just filling a page with words. To be honest, I had a hard time finding the premise.

Whitney Tilson, said Friday on CNBC that he was “aggressively buying shares in the 80’s” recently. To quote Whitney “we are buying a 30 cent dollar”.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long Sears, None in others

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Sears Begins Brand Sales Channel Diversifcation

Sears Holdings (SHLD), after recently announcing it was dividing its businesses up essentially by their major brands, has begun to spread the channels through which they are sold.

The AP reports to that Sears’ Diehard Division is teaming up with Orange County Choppers (OCC) for a special event.

Sears will unveil DieHard and Craftsman branded bikes, designed by Orange County Choppers. Sears also announced a marketing agreement with Orange County Choppers (OCC) that makes DieHard the “Official Battery of Orange County Choppers”. With this agreement, all custom motorcycles created as part of the “American Chopper” TV series (as seen on TLC) will be powered by DieHard.

In addition, the partnership will include the following:
— OCC will sell DieHard batteries in their new retail store in Newburgh, NY
— DieHard battery signage in the OCC shop along with a unique battery maintainer station
— A link to diehardbatteries.com from orangecountychoppers.com
— DieHard branding on shirts worn by OCC mechanics

Do you remember the Monty Python Piece from way back where they walked around chanting “spam, spam, spam, spam,” incessantly? When you think of Sears Holdings, the thought process needs to be “brands, brands, brands, brands”.

This is the first of many deal that will dramatically expand the sales channels of the Diehard, Craftsmen and Kenmore brands. Now that the separation has been announced and according to all accounts, management has been given the “green light” to find deals, we ought to see them coming fast and furious. Look for Craftsmen tools to be sold in Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s (LOW) before the summer ends.

As far back as November I have been focused on the brands rather than the stores. What we now need to see when Sears reports next Q1 are the results broken out by division.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long SHLD, None

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Icahn Buys Into JC Penny?

A report in the WSJ today said the stake is among Mr. Icahn’s top five holdings, which could mean it runs into the hundreds of millions of dollar.

Icahn will disclose the stake in mid-Feb according to the story. Now, Carl is scheduled to appear on CNBC’s “Fast Money” show today at 5pm. If he is not going to disclosed the stake until the next couple weeks, it is unlikely we will get any details tonight on the show.

JC Pennys’ stock, like rival retailers such as Sears Holdings (SHLD), Macy’s (M) and Kohl’s (KSS) is down over 40% in the last year and trades at just under 10 times earnings.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None, Long SHLD

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Lampert’s Letter To Associates: "No Direct Reports"

To: All Sears Holdings (SHLD) Associates

From: Edward S. Lampert, Chairman of the Board

“Today we announced that Bruce Johnson, currently our executive vice president for supply chain and operations, will serve as Sears Holdings’ interim chief executive officer and president, replacing Aylwin Lewis, who will step down in February.

I want to thank Aylwin for his dedication and leadership since joining as the chief executive officer of Kmart beginning in October 2004. He led the integration of Kmart and Sears and helped meld these two cultures. He has exemplified the qualities that are core to our company and its principles: hard work and ethical leadership. I have enjoyed working with Aylwin over the last three years and I appreciate his contributions to the company and the support he has provided me personally.

Indeed, we appreciate the hard work and efforts of all Sears Holdings associates. We know we are facing a difficult macroeconomic and retail environment, but we also expect to come out of these challenging times as an improved and stronger company. As we recently explained, we are implementing some significant changes to our organizational structure which will bring us to the next phase in our company’s history. In light of these changes, the Board and I believe that now is the right time to put in place new leadership to take the company forward and therefore we have begun a formal search for a new chief executive.

We are fortunate that we have such a strong interim leader in Bruce Johnson. Bruce will begin implementing the important organizational changes that will allow our business units to operate with greater independence, focus, and efficiency. Bruce is an experienced retail executive. He joined Kmart in 2003 after five years at French retail chain Carrefour, where he served as director, organization and systems and as a member of the management board. Before that, Bruce spent 16 years at Colgate-Palmolive in various positions. Bruce has worked hard not only to integrate and improve our supply chain and increase our direct sourcing of product, but in 2006 took responsibility for store operations as well. As interim CEO, Bruce will oversee the separate business units we announced last week.

I will continue to lead the Office of the Chairman and focus on identifying and attracting talented executives to our company, including the search for a new chief executive officer. I will also work to ensure that our new structure supports our objectives of greater accountability, faster decision-making, and increased profitability. I believe the reorganization will allow our leaders to be more productive and efficient and allow us to attract talented executives who are eager to take on the challenges of running their own businesses. As a result of these structural changes, I will no longer have any direct reports.

Given the number of changes that we have announced in recent weeks, I would like to provide you with some context for what is happening both at our company and within the markets generally and remind you of what we have accomplished thus far.

Most of you know from the news that the U.S. economy is facing significant difficulties and we are seeing a broad-based retail slowdown. We have also experienced disappointing financial performance in our business in this current fiscal year. However, we have significant opportunities and we must remain steadfast and resolute in our goal of becoming a great retailer.I never underestimated the enormity of the challenges facing Kmart and Sears and the hard work it would take to achieve our goal. I remain confident in our ability to ultimately succeed, even if there are steps backward along the way. We have been willing to make tough decisions and choose a different path from many of our peers and continue to do so. The leadership changes and the reorganization are examples of the important and necessary next steps to achieve our goals.

As you all know, both Kmart and Sears have been through many years of struggles. Those of you who were at Kmart before 2003 helped the company emerge from bankruptcy, despite the predictions of virtually all retail experts at the time. In fact, many of these experts predicted that the company would not survive at all. Instead, Kmart went from a company that lost over $1 billion in both 2001 and 2002 to a company that made almost $1 billion in 2004. Now, almost five years after emergence, Kmart still operates over 1300 stores throughout the United States, making it one of the largest retail companies in the country.

For the past three years, all of us have been charged with the very challenging task of integrating two very large companies. Each of you has made important contributions to this enormous endeavor. While we have a long way to go, you should take great pride in what you have accomplished to date. In fact, since May 2003, shares of what is now Sears Holdings have increased in value by almost ten times. It is easy to lose sight of how much value has been created over the past five years during a time of stock market uncertainty and tumult. Sure, our stock is off its highs, just like many department stores and other retail companies, but our shareholders have been richly rewarded over the past half decade.

While we continue to recognize and address the challenges ahead of us, we can also be proud that, thanks to our collective efforts, we saved almost 150,000 jobs in taking Kmart out of bankruptcy, a fate from which many retailers have failed to recover. Importantly, we also continue to believe that we can mold Sears Holdings into a successful, sustainable, and exciting company that will offer a compelling choice to customers. There will be many difficult decisions to come and the recent economic downturn which has affected practically all retail companies has set back our progress. However, it has not deterred us and we will continue to move forward with our strategy and take all appropriate actions to stabilize our business.

Sears Holdings is one of the largest retail companies in the world, one of the largest employers in the world, and one of the most profitable retail companies in the world. We remain focused on the creation of long-term value for our shareholders and have shown our ability to deliver since Kmart’s emergence from bankruptcy. We feel that we have been very successful so far, yet success doesn’t come without setbacks. We intend to make decisions to increase the probabilities of success in the future, although certainly not all decisions will lead to the outcomes we expect.

Our belief in our company is reinforced by the fact that we have invested over $4 billion since the third quarter of 2005 in repurchasing our own shares, while at the same time paying down debt and funding our pension plan. We have believed that investing in our own company stock has been a superior alternative to acquiring other businesses, and it has not prevented us from making investments in our stores and infrastructure. During that time we have also made significant investments in information technology as well as in building our design and online capabilities. However, making these investments requires us to believe that we will earn a return on them. We are not going to simply throw money at problems, as some have suggested and as others have done unsuccessfully. Instead, we are going to test and learn and when we find things that we believe can make a difference – such as Lands’ End shops inside Sears for example — we will roll them out aggressively and iterate along the way.

We are early in the game, and thanks to all your efforts, we have a great chance of victory. On behalf of the leadership of our company, thank you for your hard work and commitment, and we look forward to building a great company with your help.”

The basic summation of the letter around the web is that this letter is an admission of Lampert’s failure. That he will “no longer have any direct reports” somehow means that his vision has not succeeded.

What is missed is that shareholders who have been with him are still up ten-fold in their shares. Lampert and his discipline were precisely what both Sears and Kmart needed when he bought them. Let’s not forget (it seems to have been) that both of these chains were on the road to extinction 5 years ago. Now they produce $50 billion in sales.

What the letter means is that Lampert recognizes he has taken the chain as far as he can. He knows what his strengths are and also is, as Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett has said, “smart enough to know what I don’t know”. Now, was this “the plan” all along? Who knows. But, if you look at how far Sears seems to be in the process already, one can only assume that this has been in the works for a while.

My gut says Lampert knew this day was coming and had the reorganization plans “on the back burner”. The current state of retail in general and the US economy as a whole probably expedited their implementation.

Far from being an admission of failure, Lampert’s move is simply a very smart man placing ego aside and doing what is best at this time for his company. Why is that a bad thing?

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long Sears

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Sears.com Emphasis a Logical One

for anyone following my retail online tracing posts here, this move by Sears Holdings (SHLD) makes perfect sense.

Sears.com tapped an ex-Microsoft (MSFT) executive to the head of Sears’ newly formed online division. The division will be one of the 5 announced as part of the retailer’s recent realignment. James Barr, a 12-year Microsoft executive and general manager of MSN Shopping and Marketplaces, will take over the online unit effective Feb. 2 as a senior vice president of Sears Holdings.

Barr joins former Walmart.com (WMT) executive, Neil Day, the newly-named Chief Technology Officer for the Sears.com group.

The Sears.com and kmart.com combination ranked just behind both Walmart.com and target.com (TGT) during this recent holiday season. They consistently outdid rivals like JC Penny (JCP), Kohls (KSS) and Macy’s (M). This is a area that Sears is seeing results and to place an emphasis here as they are freeing up their brands to chase results on their own makes perfect sense.

The addition of a walmart.com executive has to encourage investors as the Wal-Mart site has dominated the landscape the for quite some time.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Sears, None

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The Weeks Top Stories at VIN

Here are the top stories this week at Value Investing News

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Sears Advertising Now Featuring Brands

Anyone else catch the NFL network today?

All season the shows have been sponsored by Sears (SLHD), the store.

Today, the pre-game show is being sponsored by “Craftsmen, available at Sears”. The Craftsmen logo is all over everything..

The commercials, once the “Sears Book” variety are now Kenmore commercials, “available at Sears”.

This would lead one the believe Friday’s announcement about breaking up Sears into a Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) like holding company has been in the works for some time and Sears Holdings is farther ahead of this than many believe.

Ad campaigns are not altered on a dime.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long Sears, None

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Lampert’s Move: Yes, Its About Brands

Eddie Lampert’s move at Sears Holdings (SHLD) on Friday is a big one in unlocking value at the retailer.

In November I stressed that Sears was not so much of a retailer story but a brand one. The general idea was that post and several others was that Lampert would eventually leverage the quality brands he has.

The Wall St. Journal reported Saturday that Lampert is doing just that.

Said the Journal, “A Sears spokesman confirmed the moves late Friday, saying the new structure will provide operating businesses with “greater control, authority and autonomy.”

It continued, “The contemplated restructuring would create separate units to manage Sears’s real-estate holdings and run brands such as Kenmore, Diehard and Craftsman. It isn’t clear how the units would be divided or which unit would run the stores themselves.

The structure would allow Mr. Lampert to spin off or close business units more easily, said a person knowledgeable about his thinking. “He warmed to the idea of a spin-off strategy,” this person said. The company also is willing to be flexible about how each unit will be set up, based on the skills of its operating executive. One practical effect of that could be to reduce costs.”

He is essentially setting up Sears like Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A).

This is probably the single best thing Lampert could have done. Why? Let’s say I am the newly minted head of the Kenmore line. What is my first move? Pick up the phone and call Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s (LOW) and see who want to sell some of the best appliances out there. When I hang up, I tell them they can expect a call from the Craftsmen guy next. Will they license the brands to GE (GE) to expand sales even more?

Will we see Diehard batteries in Wal-Mart’s (WMT) or Targets’s (TGT) automotive sections soon? How about AutoZone’s (AZ)?

With Wal-Mart consistently trying to upgrade it apparel options, could we see either Lands End, Joe Boxer, Covington, Structure or Canyon River Blues on the shelves? With Target looking for refreshed options after a very disappointing holiday season, might they take a stab at it?

The main issue with Sears as it is set up now is that the closing of questionable locations now dramatically impacts sales. If the brands are being sold through other locations, closing and selling stores can have a more positive effect on the bottom line as the sales impact is not nearly as great but the expense reduction is the same.

We know Target has been begging Lampert to sell them hundreds of locations. Could the newly separated real estate management arm rather than selling them become a landlord to Target? Rather than just closing a Kmart location, rent it to Target. In that respect, that division becomes a REIT to the holding company. With 3,500 locations under it, the options are incredible.

The point is that if the main brands that account for the majority of the profits currently are licensed and sold through other outlets, the importance of the physical stores are diminished. It also means that Sears now has more options for the marginal stores it may be carrying now. Sears could keep the best and most profitable locations while disposing of the lesser ones through leases or outright sales and keep merchandise sales and profits going through other retailers.

This is exciting..

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long Sears, Long Wal-Mart, None in others

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Tuesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


UPGRADES
American Commercial Lines (ACLI)= Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
Delek US Holdings (DK)= Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
Shaw Comms (SJR)= UBS Neutral » Buy
Oplink Comms (OPLK)= Needham & Co Buy » Strong Buy
Puget Energy (PSD)= Soleil Sell » Hold
ADC Telecom (ADCT)= Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
FTD Group (FTD)= Roth Capital Sell » Hold
ValueClick (VCLK)= RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Werner Enterprises (WERN)= Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
Frontier Oil (FTO)= Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Northwest Airlines (NWA)= Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Amdocs (DOX)= UBS Neutral » Buy
Affiliated Computer (ACS)= UBS Neutral » Buy
Knight Transportation (KNX)= Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
Heartland Express (HTLD)= Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
Con-way (CNW)= Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
Arkansas Best (ABFS)= Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
Ameriprise Financial (AMP)= Keefe Bruyette Mkt Perform » Outperform
Kaydon (KDN)= Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
RF Micro Device (RFMD)= Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY)= Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Lowe’s (LOW)= Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Home Depot (HD )= Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
General Mills (GIS)= JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Under Armour (UA)= Citigroup Hold » Buy
ArvinMeritor (ARM)= KeyBanc Capital Mkts Hold » Buy

DOWNGRADES
Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS)= Wedbush Morgan Strong Buy » Buy
Steven Madden (SHOO)= Wedbush Morgan Buy » Hold
Supertex (SUPX)= Lazard Capital Buy » Hold
Opnext (OPXT)= Needham & Co Strong Buy » Buy
Valero Energy (VLO)= Caris & Company Buy » Above Average
Alon USA Energy (ALJ)= Caris & Company Buy » Above Average
Illumina (ILMN)= Caris & Company Buy » Above Average
Trimas (TRS)= KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Telecom Italia (TI)= Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Underperform
Sunoco (SUN)= Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Automatic Data (ADP)= UBS Buy » Neutral
Paychex (PAYX)= UBS Buy » Neutral
Computer Sciences (CSC)= UBS Buy » Neutral
BearingPoint (BE)= UBS Buy » Neutral
Sapient (SAPE)= UBS Buy » Neutral
Hewitt Associates (HEW)= UBS Neutral » Sell
Advance Auto (AAP)= Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Sears Hldg (SHLD)= Credit Suisse Outperform » UnderperforM
Cal Drive Intl (DVR)= JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Express Scripts (ESRX)= JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Teva Pharm (TEVA)= HSBC Securities Overweight » Neutral
AmeriCredit (ACF)= Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Underperform

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