Tag: sks

Saks Reports June Sales

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date July 10, 2009

Here is the release from Saks:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

www.saksincorporated.com
New York, New York (July 9, 2009)—Retailer Saks Incorporated (NYSE: SKS) (the “Company”) today announced that owned sales totaled $230.2 million for the five weeks ended July 4, 2009 compared to $239.3 million for the five weeks ended July 5, 2008, a 3.8% decrease. Comparable store sales decreased 4.4% for the month.

On a quarter-to-date basis, for the two months ended July 4, 2009, owned sales totaled $396.2 million compared to $463.2 million for the two months ended July 5, 2008, a 14.5% decrease. Comparable store sales decreased 15.2% for the two-month period.

On a year-to-date basis, for the five months ended July 4, 2009, owned sales totaled $1,011.3 million compared to $1,305.7 million for the five months ended July 5, 2008, a 22.5% decrease. Comparable store sales decreased 23.2% for the five-month period.
June sales performance was positively affected by the shift of a designer sale event into June this year from May last year. Management continues to estimate that comparable store sales will decline in the mid-teen range for the second fiscal quarter.

The Saks Fifth Avenue stores experienced continued weakness across all merchandise categories during the month. Saks Direct showed relative strength in June.
Prior year numbers have been adjusted to remove the sales of the Company’s discontinued Club Libby Lu operations.

Saks Incorporated operates 53 Saks Fifth Avenue stores, 54 Saks OFF 5TH stores, and saks.com.

Here is the original investment thesis for Sakes (SKS).

Now at first blush, the numbers seemed great and then when folks realized the Fashion event was moved into June from May last year, shares tanked today. This was fine by me because after initially buying then at $3.75, I sold them a week later at $4.55. Note: I rarely take positions for that short a time frame but at the time I wanted to free up some capital and was happy to take a 21% week’s gain, expecting the price to retreat again.

I still wanted to own shares and being able to buy them today at an average price of $4.37 is a price I’m happy to own shares at.

Now, was the month and quarter to date as good/bad as it looks? June was clearly not as good sue to the changing of the Fashion event. Now as for the quarter to date, comps just may not be as bad as may seem. Remember at this year last time the government was mailingout stimulus checks to an estimated 130 million people/families. The average family of 4 got a check for $1800. Yes I know we recently had another stimulus but the current one, only 11% completed does not mail checks directly to consumers to use but at this point has been primarily mailed to state and local government to use. It clearly has had no “stimulating” effect.

Opinions vary as to how much of 2008 payments found their way into the economy vs what was saved/used to pay off bills but it is safe to say that retail received a decent chunk of it. In that respect, 2008’s spring/early summer results were skewed higher that otherwise would have been. Another bright sign is that while the YTD sales decline ins in the 20% range, the monthly’s seem to be in the 12%-15% range which does show some lessing of the decline.

This is not to say by any means that today’s results were good. It is to say that they were not quite as bad as an initial look may seem and for those of us planning to hold shares through an improvement, the trend is definitely in the right direction.

Any retail reversal will be a year in the making. But, if we want to be taking positions at bottom prices, we cannot wait for clear signs it is happening. By then the $4 stock you are looking at today will be a $10 stock and you will have missed a huge percentage of the appreciation.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SKS

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Wall St. Media 6/24

Sorry for the lag on this…getting used to the “new baby” schedule…

Doug and I here are talking about my initial thoughts on Saks (SKS), more on natural gas (UNG) and General Growth Properties (GGWPQ) .

Catch more great investing video at Wall St. Media

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SKS, UNG, GGWPQ

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Taking a Very Close Look at Saks

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date June 23, 2009
6 Comments on Taking a Very Close Look at Saks

Been looking around for more opportunities and this one caught my eye…

The Basics:
Saks, Inc. (SKS) is a leading retailer primarily offering high-end brand-name fashion apparel, shoes, accessories, and cosmetics. The company operates 53 Saks Fifth Avenue stores and 51 Off 5th units (off-price luxury goods). Discontinued Club Libby Lu, 11/08. Sold its department stores in 2004-2006. Saks Fifth Avenue stores carry merchandise from leading fashion houses. Key brands include Armani, Chanel, Gucci, and Prada. Has about 13,000 employees. Off. & Dir. own 3.2% of common stock; Inmobiliaria Carso (Carlos Slim), 17.7%; Baugur Group, 8.5% (4/09 Proxy).

For 2008:

On a consolidated basis, total net sales and comparable store sales for the year ended January 31, 2009 decreased 6.0% and 6.1%, respectively. The Company recorded a loss from continuing operations of $122.8 million, or $0.89 per share compared to income from continuing operations of $50.7 million, or $0.33 per share, for the years ended January 31, 2009 and February 2, 2008, respectively. After recognition of the Company’s after-tax loss from discontinued operations of $32.2 million, or $0.23 per share, net loss totaled $154.9 million, or $1.12 per share for the year ended January 31, 2009. After recognition of the Company’s after-tax loss from discontinued operations of $3.2 million, or $0.02 per share, net income totaled $47.5 million, or $0.31 per share for the year ended February 2, 2008.

Saks released results for its fiscal first quarter (ended May 2nd). The company lost $0.04 a share, much better than forecast of a $0.28 share loss. Cost controls drove the upside, as the company realized about $44 million in SG&A cost reductions in the quarter. For the whole of fiscal 2009, SG&A cost savings are expected to be approximately $60 million. Sales were down 27% on a year-over-year basis. Comparable-store sales fell 27.6%. Given the April period’s upside, and ongoing cost controls and inventory reductions, the company should lose about $0.50 a share this year, less than previous estimates of a $1.00 share loss.

Saks recently closed a convertible offering:

Saks granted the initial purchasers of its Notes an option to purchase up to $15 million principal amount of additional Notes, solely to cover over-allotments. The Notes will bear cash interest semiannually at an annual rate of 7.5%. The Notes will be convertible at the option of holders at an initial conversion rate of 180.5869 shares of common stock per $1,000 principal amount of Notes into, at Saks` election, cash, shares of Saks common stock or a combination thereof. The initial conversion rate is equivalent to an initial conversion price of approximately $5.54 per share of Saks common stock. The initial conversion price represents a premium of 25% relative to today’s closing sale price of Saks common stock. The Notes will not be redeemable before the maturity date, December 1, 2013. The Notes will be fully and unconditionally guaranteed by all of Saks` subsidiaries that are guarantors under its existing revolving credit facility. Saks intends to use the proceeds from the offering to pay down amounts outstanding under its revolving credit facility and for general corporate purposes.

The offering is interesting both for the interest rate being paid (just over 7%) and the conversion premium (25% higher than day of offering). Neither of those give an indication of a troubled company or heightened investor fear.

The NYC flagship store accounts for 21%of sales and 30% of company wide sales take place in Q4.

Owned v Leased locations (click to enlarge):

Catalysts:

Valuation
Saks currently sports a book value of $6.86 which means at its current $3.80 a share it trades at 56% of its book.

Even in a worse case scenario, in Chapter 11, Saks has $2.1 billion in assets v $1.1 billion in liabilities so there is plenty left for shareholders. Because they only own 1/3 of their locations, the current CRE problems will have limited effect on the “assets” side of the equation. When you couple that with the fact the locations they do own are prime RE, then that effect is even further diminished.

If we took an extreme scenario and wrote off 50% of the value of their RE, we still have a situation where assets 50%> liabilities, a nice 11 scenario for shareholders. The good news here is that their own RE is currently all unencumbered, giving them huge flexibility there.

They have $193 million is senior notes outstanding and of that, only $45 million is due soon and that is in Dec. 2010 and they have ample liquidity under a $500 million revolver that comes due 2011. No issues here…

The point here is not that I am anticipating bankruptcy, it is just a scenario we have to run when taking into account the risk if a $3 stock. This tells me that if I risk $3, even if they go belly up, I will retain some value. Should they avoid it a stabilize operations, the scenario I presume happens, then my end value is multiples of that $3, a very nice risk/reward.

Trends:
Right now “cheap is chic”. It will not last. With almost 1/4 of company sales coming from its NYC flagship, a sea change is not needed for results to change. What is simply needed is for those folks who normally shop there to feel secure in their job, home situation, tax situation etc. Once they see clarity on those issues, the cache of buying a handbag at Target (TGT) or Wal-Mart (WMT) vs their normal Gucci will loose its luster pretty quick.

Expanded to the rest of its operations, Saks locations in upper scale malls should see similar improvements.

The next question is “why not wait until we see things improving before buying?”. This was a $1.50 stock just a few months ago. Now it is near $4 after a quarter that was not nearly as bad as expected. Waiting another quarter or two may have you buying a $6 or $7 stocks (assuming improvements trend similarly) and severely cut into potential gains. Doing it this way requires more patience and also more homework, but the potential payoff is far larger.

Market Cap:
Saks only has 144 million shares outstanding and a market cap of just over $500 million. This simply means that an activist investor or small changes in the macro environment could have a out-sized effect on the stock appreciation. While this is not a singular reason to purchase the stock, IF you decide to buy it, this helps with the “should I buy it now” decision. Because the stock could make large leaps easily, waiting for confirmation of your purchase thesis may just price you out of large gains…

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Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Time to Find Some "Religion"? $$

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date February 26, 2009
2 Comments on Time to Find Some "Religion"? $$

Stumbled across this yesterday and the more I look at it, the more I like it.

If I told you I had a company you could by a pieces of for 7 times earnings that was growing EPS >50% a year, would you be interested? Me too..

True Religion Apparel, Inc. (True Religion) designs, markets, distributes, and sells apparel under the brand name True Religion Brand Jeans to consumers in more than 50 countries on six continents: North and South America, Asia, Africa, Europe and Australia. The Company’s products are sold in the United States in national premium stores, including Bloomingdale’s, Neiman Marcus, Nordstrom, Saks Fifth Avenue, and in over 2,000 boutique and specialty stores. Its products can be categorized as denim, knit and non-denim, and most come in tops and bottoms. Knit styles include hoodies, t-shirts and sweats, and non-denim fabrics include corduroy and twill. The Company sells men’s women’s and kid’s styles for its products. True Religion operates in four segments: United States Wholesale, International Wholesale, Consumer Direct and Corporate, which includes licensing activity.

Here is a look at earnings since inception:

Now, the argument against the company would be: “In a recession. who will spend $200 for a pair of jeans?” Valid point. Let’s look at the jean market.

Who is their customer?:

Looking forward:

Think of True Religion and their product a bit like Starbucks (SBUX). They have a similar demographic. The difference is that True is not trying to sell their products through 14,000 locations. While Starbucks is finding that a large percentage of the millions of customers they need to serve in order to grow have become very price conscious, True is still small enough that there is plenty of folks who will spend $200 on jeans at the 42 locations they currently have. This will not avoid a slowdown but will buffer them against deterioration.

Why the discount then?

Due to the recession, for fiscal 2009 selling jeans in specialty boutiques and major department stores such as Saks (SKS) and Nordstrom Inc (JWN), expects to earn between $1.73 and $1.81 a share (essentially flat over 2008) on revenue between $290 million and $297 million (vs $273 in 2008). Dept. store sales are expected t fall 17% to 19%. Still, at $11 a share, that means at the low end you are paying 6.3 times 2009 earnings for shares.

Key assumptions embedded in the Company’s full year 2009 guidance, as compared to the full year 2008, are identified below:

· Forecasted net sales growth within the Company’s consumer direct segment of 60% to 65% will be driven by the addition of 25 new branded retail stores in 2009 and the 27 stores opened in 2008.
· Net sales in the U.S. wholesale segment is expected to decline by 17% to 19% driven by a sharp reduction in sales to boutiques and a mid-single digit decline in sales to Majors and off-price retailers.
· The Company’s International segment is forecasted to increase its net sales by low single digits, driven by an increase in net sales to Japanese wholesale customers.

What does it all mean? True gives up plenty of downside protection. With $57 million in the bank, True provides investors with $2.38 a share in cash on the books. This means 22% of the share price is just the cash in the bank. What about debt you say? There is none. The cash is free and clear.

At its current market cap, True is valued at just under 1 times 2009 sales and just over 1 times 2008’s. Too low.

What if the recession deepens and profits actually fall? Say they fall 10%? Will the stock then trade for 5 times those earnings? Or is it likely the current price reflects a general feeling profits may fall more than currently projected and any shortfall in results will be met with a stagnant share price? Who knows but my impression is that the latter is most likely.

Think about it. If you owned the company outright and someone offered you $8.62 for it ($11 share price – the $2.38 per share you have in the company’s bank account) would you take it or tell the potential buyer where to stick it? Me too. Now reverse it. If someone owned it and offered the company for $11 and included in the price was the $2.38 in the bank would you jumo at it? Me too.

That is essentially what is happening right now with the share price. Should you rush out and buy shares? No. I’m not but they are high up on the watch list. I want a bit more clarity on the macro environment before I buy. This isn’t to say I see shares cratering anytime soon, just that they could remain flat as the economy sours more. Should the maco environment show no visibilty as the year progresses, one would assume True shares mirror that.

But, as soon as I see strength in the macro condition, assuming I have not missed a huge run up, if shares sit near where they are now they would be almost irresistable…

It would be a “sin” not to buy them in that case….Sorry, had to do it…

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Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Pershing’s McGuire Named Borders Chairman $$

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date January 13, 2009

So, we now know what the delay was for in the Pershing / Borders financing agreement.

Borders Group (BGP) today announced that Richard “Mick” McGuire, 32, has been appointed non-executive Chairman of the company’s Board of Directors, effective today. He replaces Larry Pollock, 61, who has been non-executive Chairman since July 2006 and has been a Director since August 1995. Pollock will remain on the Board as a Director.

McGuire joined the Board in January 2008 in connection with his role as a partner at Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P., which is Borders Group’s largest investor. At Pershing Square, McGuire served as a member of the investment team exploring investment opportunities in industries including retail, consumer products, business services and financial services. He is now departing Pershing Square to pursue entrepreneurial interests. Prior to Pershing Square, McGuire held positions at private equity funds J.H. Whitney & Co., and Stonington Partners, Inc. He holds a master’s degree in business administration (MBA) from Harvard Business School and a bachelor’s degree from Princeton University.

“Mick is extremely smart and capable,” said Pershing Square founder and Chief Executive Officer Bill Ackman. “As a major shareholder of Borders, I am delighted with Mick’s appointment to Chairman. I look forward to the company’s progress under Mick’s and CEO Ron Marshall’s stewardship.”

“In the short time that I have worked with Mick, I am impressed with his constructive input, sound judgment and overall support of the company,” said Borders Group Chief Executive Officer Ron Marshall. “I look forward to working more closely with Mick in the expanded role of Chairman and with Mike Archbold in his new role as Lead Director. On behalf of the entire Board and management team, I also want to thank Larry for his years of service as Chairman and am pleased that he’ll remain with the Board as a Director.”

As noted, Michael G. Archbold has been named Lead Director. Archbold, 48, joined the Board in December 2007. He is Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer of The Vitamin Shoppe, a position he has held since 2007. Previously, Archbold served as Executive Vice President, Chief Financial and Administrative Officer of Saks Fifth Avenue. Prior to Saks, Archbold was Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of AutoZone and earlier served as Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of the Booksellers Division of Barnes & Noble, Inc.
Pollock, who as noted remains on the Board, is Managing Partner of investment firm Lucky Stars Partners LLC. Previously, he was President, and later Chief Executive Officer, of Cole National Corporation, which operates retail vision and gift stores and was sold to Luxottica Group SpA in 2004. Prior to Cole National, Pollock served as President and Chief Executive Officer of HomePlace, Inc., and earlier was President, Chief Operating Officer and a Director of jewelry retailer Zale Corporation.

It’s Ackman’s ball now. Largest shareholder, Chairman and Chief Financer all in one (two actually but one sounds better).

It will be real interesting to watch..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP
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Fridays Upgrades and Downgrades

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date March 7, 2008
1 Comment on Fridays Upgrades and Downgrades

Upgrades
Smith Micro Software (SMSI)- Northland Securities Market Perform » Outperform
Canadian Solar (CSIQ)- Broadpoint Capital Neutral » Strong Buy
Endo Pharm (ENDP)- Roth Capital Hold » Buy
CSG Systems (CSGS)- BMO Capital Markets Underperform » Market Perform
Alum. Corp China (ACH)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
ICICI Bank (IBN)- HSBC Securities Underweight » Neutral
Kilroy Realty (KRC)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
SL Green Rlty (SLG)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Boston Prpts (BXP)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Corp Office Props (OFC)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
ProLogis (PLD)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Top Pick
Digital Realty Trust (DLR)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Top Pick
China Unicom (CHU)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
DISH Network (DISH)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
Tenaris (TS)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
Forward Air (FWRD )- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Fluor (FLR)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
McDermott (MDR)- Citigroup Hold » Buy

Downgrades
AmeriCredit (ACF)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
Schnitzer Steel (SCHN)- Longbow Buy » Neutral
Zumiez (ZUMZ)- Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
Marchex (MCHX)- Stanford Research Buy » Hold
S M & A Corp (WINS)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
Coldwater Creek (CWTR)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
NOVA Chemicals (NCX)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
BioMed Realty (BMR)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Maguire Properties (MPG)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform
First Potomac Realty (FPO)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform
Duke Realty (DRE)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Underperform
Brandywine Realty (BDN)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Underperform
Zumiez (ZUMZ)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
China Netcom (CN)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
MFA Mortgage (MFA)- Keefe Bruyette Outperform » Mkt Perform
Anworth Mortgage (ANH)- Keefe Bruyette Outperform » Mkt Perform
Saks (SKS)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral

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Wednesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date March 5, 2008

Upgrades
Leapfrog (LF)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Cogdell Spencer (CSA)- Citigroup Sell » Hold
Quiksilver (ZQK)- Caris & Company Average » Above Average
Dvlps Divers Realty (DDR)- Citigroup Sell » Hold
Saks (SKS)- Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
Chunghwa Telecom (CHT)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Dillard’s (DDS)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
Crosstex Energy (XTEX)- RBC Capital Mkts Underperform » Sector Perform
Vonage (VG)- Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
Limelight Networks (LLNW )- Jefferies & Co Underperform » Hold
Diebold (DBD)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Charles & Colvard (CTHR)- Merriman Curhan Ford Neutral » Buy

Downgrades
Bottomline Tech (EPAY)- Canaccord Adams Buy » Hold
W&T Offshore (WTI)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Underperform
Telecom Italia (TI)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform
Barnes & Noble (BKS)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Thornburg Mortg (TMA)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform
Goodrich Petroleum (GDP)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
American Campus Communities (ACC)- Citigroup Hold » Sell
Houston Wire & Cable (HWCC)- BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Novell (NOVL)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Barnes & Noble (BKS)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
EOG Resources (EOG)- Oppenheimer Perform » Underperform
Diebold (DBD)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Deerfield Triarc Capital (DFR)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Par Pharmaceutical (PRX)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
ConocoPhillips (COP)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight
Best Buy (BBY)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral

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Friday’s Upgrades and Downgrades

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date February 1, 2008

Upgrades
Alliance Data (ADS)= Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
MIPS Techs (MIPS)= B. Riley & Co Neutral » Buy
Ryder System (R)= BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
NCR Corp (NCR)= Wedbush Morgan Buy » Strong Buy
Imation (IMN )= Needham & Co Hold » Buy
Cablevision (CVC)= Kaufman Bros Sell » Hold
Big Lots (BIG)= Wachovia Underperform » Mkt Perform
Enterprises Finl (EFSC)= Keefe Bruyette Underperform » Mkt Perform
Comerica (CMA)= Rochdale Securities Sell » Hold
Pinnacle West (PNW )= Lehman Brothers Underweight » Equal-weight
Alliance Data (ADS)= Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy
SCP Pool (POOL)= JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Alliance Data (ADS)= JMP Securities Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform
Alliance Data (ADS )= Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
Sealed Air (SEE)= Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
Astoria Fincl (AF)= Bear Stearns Underperform » Outperform
Nordstrom (JWN)= Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
Hess (HES)= JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Gilead Sciences (GILD)= Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform

Downgrades
Cirrus Logic (CRUS)= Longbow Buy » Neutral
Polo Ralph Lauren (RL)= Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Underperform
Mattson (MTSN)= Caris & Company Above Average » Average
Allstate (ALL)= Sandler O’Neill Buy » Hold
bebe stores (BEBE)= Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
Audible (ADBL)= Merriman Curhan Ford Buy » Neutral
Accuray (ARAY)= Soleil Buy » Hold
TriCo Bancshares (TCBK)= Keefe Bruyette Outperform » Mkt Perform
Affiliated Managers (AMG)= Keefe Bruyette Outperform » Mkt Perform
Baker Hughes (BHI)= RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Underperform
Schlumberger (SLB)= RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
W&T Offshore (WTI)= JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Saks (SKS)= Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Underperform
NuCo2 (NUCO)= Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Baker Hughes (BHI)= Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Delhaize Group (DEG)= JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Harris Stratex (HSTX)= Morgan Joseph Buy » Hold
Century Aluminum (CENX)= Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Cadence Design (CDNS)= JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Polo Ralph Lauren (RL)= Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Monster Worldwide (MNST)= Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Adobe Systems (ADBE)= Jefferies & Co Buy » Underperform
YUM! Brands (YUM) Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold

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"Fast Money" for Wednesday

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date December 11, 2007

Wednesday’s Picks
Jeff Macke recommends McDonald’s (MCD) Open $61.13 and AT&T (T) on any dip. Open $39.46

Guy Adami likes Cisco (CSCO). Open $28.02

Karen Finerman says long Goldman (GS) Open $211.15 short Lehman (LEH) Open $61.14, dollar for dollar.

Pete Najarian thinks Juniper (JNPR) is a buy. Open $32.61

Tuesday’s Results
Pete Najarain would buy EMC (EMC). Open $19.52 Close $19.42 LOSS

Karen Finerman said she “believes in” Saks (SKS). Open $21.06 Close $19.76 LOSS

Guy Adami reiterated his buy on U.S. Bancorp (USB). Open $33.58 Close $32.85

THQ (THQI) is a buy to Jeff Macke.Open $27.37 Close $28.10 GAIN

Guy Adami= 52-42 = 55%
John Najarian= 13-4 = 76%
Jeff Macke= 57-36 = 65%
Pete Najarian= 41-39 = 52%
Tim Seymore= 6-7 = 57%
Karen Finerman= 34-27 = 55%
Stacey Briere-Gilbert= 3-0 = 100
Ned Riley= 1-0 = 100%
Carter Worth= 0-1 = 0%

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"Fast Money" for Tuesday

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date December 10, 2007

Tuesday’s Picks

Pete Najarain would buy EMC (EMC). Open $19.52

Karen Finerman said she “believes in” Saks (SKS). Open $21.06

Guy Adami reiterated his buy on U.S. Bancorp (USB). Open $33.58

THQ (THQI) is a buy to Jeff Macke.Open $27.37

Monday’s Results
Guy Adami recommends Microsoft (MSFT), which he calls Mr. Softee. Open $34.53 Close $34.76 GAIN

Pete Najarian says Target (TGT) is a buy.Open $55.51 Close $55.60 GAIN

Karen Finerman prefers Children’s Place (PLCE). Open $29.95 Close $30.11 GAIN

Guy Adami= 52-41 = 57%
John Najarian= 13-4 = 76%
Jeff Macke= 56-36 = 63%
Pete Najarian= 41-38 = 53%
Tim Seymore= 6-7 = 57%
Karen Finerman= 34-26 = 56%
Stacey Briere-Gilbert= 3-0 = 100
Ned Riley= 1-0 = 100%
Carter Worth= 0-1 = 0%

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"Fast Money" Picks For Friday

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date July 13, 2007

Here are today’s picks

Jeff Macke is buying McDonald’s (MCD). Open $51.65

Pete Najarian preferred New York Bancorp (NYB). Open $17.56

Guy Adami recommended EMC Corp. (EMC). Open $19.25

Eric Bolling didn’t have a stock pick.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS:

Guy Adami likes EMC Corp. (EMC). Open $18.92 Close $19.25 Gain $.33

Pete Najarian prefers PDL BioPharma (PDLI)Open $23.48 Close $23.74 Gain $.26

Jeff Macke recommends buying Saks (SKS). Open $20.71 Close $20.44 Loss $.27

Records:

Since my tracking began on 6/21 (1-1 means one up pick and one down pick)

Adami= 7-4 Gain $30.61
Bolling= 6-6 Loss $5.46
John Najarian= 10-3 Gain $12.36
Macke= 12-7 Gain $5.96
Pete Najarian=3-0 Gain $20.20
Seymore= 1-0 Gain $.35
Finerman= 1-2 Gain $.68

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"Fast Money" for Thursday

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date July 12, 2007

Here are today’s picks and yesterday’s results.

Guy Adami likes EMC Corp. (EMC). Open $18.92

Pete Najarian prefers PDL BioPharma (PDLI)Open $23.48

Jeff Macke recommends buying Saks (SKS). Open $20.71

Wednesday’s Results:

Eric Bolling likes streetTRACKS Gold Shares (GLD). Open $65.61 Close $65.44 Loss $.17

Karen Finerman would be a buyer of ConocoPhilips (COP). Open $84.12 Close $85.59 Gain $1.47

Pete Najarian likes Biogen Idec (BIIB) because a new buyback should take it much higher. Open $54.51 Close $54.85 Gain $.34

Jeff Macke recommended Electronic Arts (ERTS) as a trade ahead of its conference(Open $49.44 Close $49.60 Gain $.16) and said to stay long Activision (ATVI). Open $19.17 Close $19.25 Gain $.08

Records:

Since my tracking began on 6/21 (1-1 means one up pick and one down pick)

Adami= 6-4 Gain $30.28
Bolling= 6-6 Loss $5.46
John Najarian= 9-3 Gain $12.10
Macke= 12-6 Gain $6.23
Pete Najarian=3-0 Gain $20.20
Seymore= 1-0 Gain $.35
Finerman= 1-2 Gain $.68

Tags sks

Articles

Retails Sales Preview: Yawn

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date July 9, 2007

On Thursday this week retailers are expected to announce June numbers and economists project sales to fall 0.3%, with weaker spending on vehicles, gasoline, building materials and clothing.

In their weekly preview, Brian Bethune and Nigel Gault, U.S. economists for Global Insight wrote, “Consumer spending will conclude the second quarter with a whimper” and Leslie Preston, an economist for CIBC World Markets, said “Consumption is looking anemic”

Macy’s (M), J.C. Penney (JCP), Kohl’s (KSS) and Saks (SKS) all have forecast a decline in June same-store sales. Sears Holdings (SHLD) does not announce numbers.

The assumption seems to be that consumer spending, which jumped at a 4.2% pace in the first quarter, slowed to about a third of that rate in Q2. Excepting the quarter that followed hurricane’s Katrina and Rita, it would be the weakest quarterly spending in more than four years.

The past weeks reports on retail chain store sales were weak and the results showed the slowest growth since the recession ended in late 2001. Further, The International Council of Shopping Centers expects year-over-year growth of 1.5% to 2% for same store sales in June, 1/2 the growth rate seen earlier in the expansion.

Let’s also not forget that last year had the Memorial Day shopping weekend in June and it was in May this year. What we will really need to do is average the two months together to get a more accurate number.

So, what happens? Who cares. Expectations are low so if they do not do well, we expected that. If they surprise to the upside, shares run up on the news. If they completely disappoint, because expectations are not that hight to begin with, the downside is not that far. The perverse reality is that any further downside will only stoke already simmering merger and buyout rumors which will buoy shares, the old “bad news is good news scenario”.

Just sit tight, a lot of people have lost a lot of money over the years betting against the consumer. Will there be a blip sooner or later? Sure, there has to be, but long term, the trend is up.

Tags SHLD, sks