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$$ Book Value Growth = Share Growth & Why MSFT Is No Value

“Davidson” submits…

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Subs $$: Miscellaneous

Odds and ends…

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$$ Davidson on Data Series

Davidson submits….

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$$ Staffing Index Grows in Aug vs. July

I’m telling you…this is a leading indicator….

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$$ Temp Employment Still Surging…..Yes…Surging…

Temp to permanent…..that is the way it goes after recessions. If the prior is doing well, eventually the later does also.

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$$ Got Some News For Ya’ All….Jobless Claims Actually Fell

Not sure why anyone actually follows these numbers…we all know there will be a material revision in a few weeks..

From Calafia Beach Pundit

The top chart shows the seasonally adjusted version of first-time claims for unemployment, while the bottom chart shows the actual number of first-time claims. The one that’s reported and commented on is the top one, while most people ignore the bottom one.

The story behind today’s unexpected rise in claims to 500K is that actual claims didn’t fall by as much as the seasonal factors expected. Yes, in the most recent reporting period, claims actually FELL by 22,600, whereas the reported number (seasonally adjusted) showed a rise of 16,000.

I have never believed that week-to-week changes in unemployment claims hold any significant information content, because for one, claims are subject to the vagaries of seasonality and faulty seasonal adjustment factors, and two, the economy rarely changes on a dime, from one week to the next.

Looking at the bottom chart, I can’t find any evidence suggesting that the labor market has suddenly deteriorated. Note that the rise in actual claims in early July translated into a big seasonally adjusted decline. In other words, actual claims in July failed to rise by as much as the seasonal factors expected. Well, today’s number could be simply the flip side of that number: claims failed to fall by as much as expected. In seasonally adjusted terms, the recent rise in claims could just be “payback” for the July decline. We’ll have see what develops over the next few weeks, of course. But I think it’s premature to jump to the conclusion that the labor market has suddenly taken a turn for the worse, just as it was premature to think that the big decline in claims in early July was a sign of dramatic improvement in the labor market.

Reading the economic tea leaves is never as simple as watching one series for ups and downs. You have to take into consideration a number of factors, and look for consistent patterns that tie them together. For my money, I think that recent strong growth in commodity prices, coupled with the strong growth in industrial production, strong growth in corporate profits, strong growth in shipping and rail activity, and the ongoing decline in corporate bond yields and spreads, suggests very strongly that the economy on balance is on the mend, albeit relatively slowly. To be sure, construction has yet to really improve, and the labor market is still distressed, but you can never expect everything to move in a straight line and at the same time. For that matter, the labor market is typically the among the last sectors of the economy to participate in a recovery.

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$$ More Color on Transports Traffic & Recovery

We’ve been taliing about this for awhile….

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$$ More Color on Transports Traffic & Recovery

We’ve been taliing about this for awhile….

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$$ Leading Employment Indicator Still Rising

Here is the pattern all recent recessions have followed, first temporary employment rises as businesses cautiously add cheaper temp workers. As the recovery gains traction, those workers then migrate from temp to permanent. All that means for the best view of the jobs market down the road, we need to look at the temporary worker situation.

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$$ Latest Rail Traffic…A Drill Down

Be careful of the interpretation of this data around the web….

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$$ Most Recent Rail Data Shows Recovery Continues

Watch for this….